But new highs in Portugal, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Ireland, Romania. A wild ride.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Location, location, location, I mean, country, country, country is the mantra in real estate. We’re going on a wild ride across sales prices of existing homes (“dwellings”) of all types in the 16 largest countries that are either in the European Union (EU) or in the European Economic Area (EEA), based on data from Eurostat through Q1, released on Friday. The data goes back to 2010.
It’s going to be a wild ride because some countries have indeed the most splendid housing bubbles that are now deflating, others have most splendid bubbles that are not yet deflating and hit new highs, and others, such as Italy, are at or below where they were in 2010.
Biggest decliners from the peak:
- Germany: -15.0%
- Finland: -12.6%
- Sweden: -10.3%
- Austria: -9.6%
- France: -6.8%
- Denmark: -5.8%
Biggest gainers from 2010 to their respective peak:
- Austria: +136%
- Czech Republic: +130%
- Portugal: +104%
- Germany: +104%
- Sweden: +103%
- Norway: +101%
The tail end.
Italy’s home prices are below where they had been in 2010. Finland’s home prices have dropped back to where they’d been in 2010.
And Spain’s home prices, after a deep trough, are just 5.7% above where they’d been in 2010. Spain had a fabulously splendid housing bubble that imploded spectacularly, but it happened before 2010, and the implosion dragged into 2015, after which prices rose again. These markets are at the other end of the spectrum.
The most splendid housing bubbles:
In order of the increase from 2010 to the peak. All indices here are set at 100 for 2010. So when an index is now at 200, it means the prices have doubled (+100%) since 2010.
| Austria, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 136.2% | -0.8% | -4.6% | -9.6% |
| Czech Republic, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 130.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | -2.3% |
| Portugal, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 104.4% | 1.1% | 7.6% | New high |
| Germany, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 104.2% | -1.1% | -6.2% | -15.0% |
| Sweden, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 103.2% | 1.1% | -0.7% | -10.3% |
| Norway, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 100.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | -1.8% |
| Poland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 95.7% | 4.0% | 16.4% | New high |
| Netherlands, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 68.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | -0.6% |
| Ireland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 62.5% | 2.6% | 5.7% | New high |
| Denmark, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 61.5% | -2.5% | 1.2% | -5.8% |
| Belgium, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 52.9% | 0.4% | 2.3% | New high |
| France, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 39.0% | -2.3% | -5.2% | -6.8% |
| Romania, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 17.5% | 0.8% | 2.2% | New high |
| Finland, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 16.9% | -2.2% | -5.4% | -12.6% |
| Spain, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| 2010 to Peak | QoQ | YoY | From peak |
| 5.7% | 2.2% | 5.8% | New high |
| Italy, Prices of Existing Homes | |||
| since 2011 peak | QoQ | YoY | |
| -18.3% | 0.24% | 0.7% | |
This was the inaugural post of a new quarterly series, The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Europe. It complements our two long-running very popular series, The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America and The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada
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It doesn’t look like any one country housing has hit skid row status, even tho Italy looks like a worn out shoe.
The people hump along, another year goes by…..
Thank you yet again Wolf for prepping up a smorgasbord of splendid data and economic relationships to consider, in this case particularly as we head into the seas-of-change in H2-2024!! …. oh how does the Republic of Texas “post up sense” 2010 (~yes lots of tongue-in-check grins implied too)!
Wolf analyzes data until he’s blue in the face, but never mentions where the banks get the limitless money that causes these bubbles.
Lemme helpya with this, Perplexed Pete:
Banks get their money mostly from their customers, from you and me, the depositors that put their cash into the bank, thereby lending the banks money, a LOT of money: There’s $17.5 TRILLION in customer cash on deposit at commercial banks (not counting credit unions). For banks, that $17.5 trillion used to be free money when interest rates were 0%, and now it’s still cheap money because lots of deposits — such as checking accounts, payroll accounts, transaction accounts of other types, regular savings accounts, etc. – still pay 0% or near-% in interest. So that’s still very cheap money for banks.
If you have a checking account with a balance, you’re lending your cash to the bank, and likely for free. YOU are a very cheap source of money for your bank. If you have a CD, you’re lending your cash to the bank, and the bank pays you some interest on it, and so that’s not so cheap money anymore for your bank. But your bank wants this cash, and it’s willing to pay you some interesting on it to get this cash.
Banks have so much cash from their customers that they put part of it on deposit at the Fed (the “reserves” now about $3.2 trillion) to earn 5.4% in interest that the Fed pays them for this cash. In other words, the banks gave the Fed $3.2 trillion. Not the other way around.
Back when the Fed was still doing QE through 2021 (QE = increasing the Fed’s holdings of bonds), that QE money went into the financial markets and to investors holding those assets that sold those assets indirectly to the Fed, and used the proceeds from the asset sales (cash) to buy other assets, and the sellers of those assets than had the cash and they chased after other assets, etc. setting off a huge circular chase after assets, and those assets were everything, bonds, stocks, real estate, and it happened on a global scale because other central banks were doing the same thing, and many foreign investors went chasing after assets in the US.
But now, all central banks are doing QT. Most are deep into QT, including the ECB, the BOC, the BOE, etc. The BOJ just started QT. The Fed started QT in the summer of 2022, removing this liquidity from the financial markets. The Fed has already removed $1.74 trillion in liquidity via QT. For more on the current status of QT, read this:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/05/fed-balance-sheet-qt-34-billion-in-june-1-74-trillion-from-peak-to-7-22-trillion-lowest-since-november-2020
The Fed also lends money to the banks, but it charges them 5.5% for this money at the Discount Window and 5.4% at the now expired BTFP. So that’s expensive money for banks. And banks borrow only $6 billion at the Discount window and $106 billion in grandfathered loans at the BTFP, minuscule amounts compared to the $17.5 trillion that banks have borrowed from their bank customers, like you and me (depositors).
Sydney, Australia. Looks at Austria answer says:
“Oi mate! Hold me beer.”
Sydney is around 170% over the same period and now is unaffordable to most.
(Nationally Australia is around 100% over the same period.)
what explains the stength of the czech market?
Foreign investment and Financialization are 2 factors. 30 year mortgages are a new thing (by American standards) only existing since 2001. Basically the same attitude in USA went there that real estate is an investment. “Home prices don’t go down” or so people say. So really the same things that drove the American market.
All the countries in what people in America call “eastern europe” have some things in common. Those economies got a very late start modernizing to rest of Europe standards so a lot of international manufacturing is set up there because they can avoid EU tariffs but get cheaper labour. In my home country of Poland when the wall fell people just stayed in the properties they always lived in, over the years most people “bought” their places back from the state but just to give an idea of the large gulf between “east” and “west” the cost for some of these apartments would have been just a few hundred dollars and people working locally couldn’t always pay that even. Ofcourse a lot has changed since then but this was only the 1990s, if you think RE was cheap in US in say the 80s, well it was free in Poland lol.
Few years back when I looked at an apartment in Kraków in the old city centre zone it was getting close to half a million CDN for a small one, it’s got to be more today and way more right in the centre.. then as you fan out further the price becomes more attainable but my buddies sister had to buy just outside of the official city limits (you could walk into Kraków from there) and I believe it was about 60K CDN. The city centre’s are getting bought out by wealthy people from across Europe.
So relative to established economies the ones in the “east” grew very fast over a sustained period, people made money in the country, people made a lot more money outside the country in the EU, and RE grew alongside that. In terms of immigration issues in the west compared to the east that others mention it definitely is like this and it attracts other Europeans to buy property too, but the driver has been very strong economic growth thanks to EU, this can’t continue forever ofcourse and when prices match rest of Europe then everything will be roughly in line with rest of Europe. There is high wage pressure in Poland now due to the immigration policy but also because there’s wage pressure in Europe as well, some of my friends now stay in country for work but a few still travel to places like Norway and France etc.. because there is still more one can make in EU compared to home with certain work. However, they spend their money at home, people don’t emigrate much anymore.
Sorry, I meant to reply to OP above not you directly.
Look, there is no way that property prices in Warsaw, Sofia, Bucharest, Budapest, etc., be equal or come close to property prices in Paris, London, Amsterdam, etc. because western economies are much richer, while eastern Europe is a developing economy. As they say “Europe at two speeds”
This rise in prices in Eastern Europe is pure speculation, a bubble that will inevitably burst at some point.
@Julian
Poland etc poor? Europe of two speeds? Yeah, the east / central have been the higher speed.
Again, Poland poor? I just spent 2 months in Poland. I’m from Canada and Poland seems richer, standard of living seems higher than here. I’m not joking. I’m talking about 90% of Canada, excluding places like West Vancouver.
@Julian
I define rich country/standard of living like this:
– country infrastructure, highways, roads, buildings, sidewalks, internet, technology use, health care etc
– houses people living in, the quality and the “nice” effect, with gardens
– the quality of food people eat
– the government and private services standard.
– people simply enjoying their lives.
Actually it is hard to define it. Easier is to experience it. Just generic feel: I rather live here. In Poland, dealing with e.g. government service seems so pleasant and simple.
I was thinking about what in Canada is better. It was not an easy experiment.
Bogdan
lived for 8 years in Canada and I have many Polish friends who told me what life is like in Poland. So they had fled from there and come to Canada.
Regarding wealth, as much as Poland has become richer in recent years, it is still very far from countries like France, Germany, Great Britain, Austria, etc. and will hardly ever catch up with them.
The proof is that many Polish people are still emigrating from Poland, and there are hardly any Westerners immigrating to Poland
@Julian
What you say was true 20-30 years ago. I also moved from Poland then. Canada stagnated, Poland exploded upwards meantime.
Poles are not mass emigrating in the last say 20 years, just some individual cases like in any country.
Poland, is on way to surpass UK in few years in “richness”.
Dudes that emigrated say to Canada 30 years ago, still have mentally the old grey picture of Poland. When they recently visit they are shocked, and not recognizing Poland.
The typical “emigration” now from Poland is to buy a second? home in Spain or Italy. The incoming war is part of it.
In any case Julian, your impression of Poland is totally outdated. I was born there and I have family and friends there, so I can compare without the “on vacation effect”.
Plus, Poland is simply beautiful, the landscape, nature and the rich green everywhere.
@ Julian
Worth adding: the countries to compare Poland are in steep decline over years. France, UK, Germany, Sweden are not as they were 20 years ago. Infrastructure crumbling, declining standards of living, social unrest (Poland felt way safer than Canada).
Poland is one of few in the word industry powerhouses. The European investment capital moving from the West of Europe to central / east Europe. Germany is a huge example.
Moving mostly to Poland and some to Czech (Romania I guess too). Poland used to tail Czech, now Poland is better developed country, they envy Poland. Just crazy times.
Biker
Concerning your standard of living ranking, I will say that working for the government in Canada is a “sweet” job.
The problem is that not all of us can work for the Canadian government.
Regarding housing, I will say that in Sofia a depreciated apartment is already worth as much as an average apartment in Montreal with the difference that the minimum wage in Bulgaria is 4 CAd per hour in Montreal it is almost 16 CAD.
Regarding food, Bulgaria, Romania and several other Eastern European countries have repeatedly complained to the European Commission that the food imported into these countries is of inferior quality and that we are treated as “low quality” Europeans
Finally, I will repeat that emigration from Eastern Europe continues to grow and immigration is almost imperceptible.
In Bulgaria there are poor English pensioners who take advantage of the nice climate and the low standard of living where they live like kings with their English pensions. There are no other immigrants from Western Europe, USA or Canada.
I will not be surprised if the situation in Poland is similar to that in Bulgaria
Biker,
“What you say was true 20-30 years ago.”
I leved Canada at 2013!
“Poland, is on way to surpass UK in few years”
Haha, good luck with that!!
@ Julian
Links delayed.
The world bank estimates that in 5 years polish GDP per capita surpasses UKs. Easy to google it.
Biker,
The real estate market is affected by supply and demand.
The vast majority of immigrants want to live in countries like Great Britain, France, Australia, Germany, Canada, USA and not in countries like Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, etc.
So even if Poland EVER reaches the BVP of Britain it doesn’t justify the ridiculously high property prices in those countries. There is no influx of immigrants to justify this price hike today.
However, this article talks about the property bubble in Europe.
The poles working illegaly in Germany and earning good Euros there exchange them for Zloty and then have a pile of cash on their hand to spend.
Simple as that.
@julian – as others mentioned, your info is outdated. nobody is emigrating to western europe in droves like they did 20 years ago. it is not uncommon anymore to earn 2000+ euro per month after taxes in big cities in eastern Europe. nobody wants to live in Great Britain, France, Australia, Germany, Canada, USA anymore, unless one is a specific specialist, who would earn several times more in USA specifically. Germany, Austria, France are actually famous for being unable to attract foreign talent (comparatively low wages, LANGUAGE, bureaucracy, insane rent prices, and recently – unsafety due to uncontrolled immigration). my mate, who I used to work with post 2009 depression in warehouse in UK now makes ~3k euro after taxes in Lithuania, as a technical designer of furniture. I can guarantee you that he is not interested in any offers in any of your western markets :) USA is way too far, and one only goes to Canada if one cannot get into USofA. the immigrants to western Europe and north americas are mostly african/asian/south american. and standard of living is probably better in Lithuania/Poland by now than in Canada with it’s insane property prices and non existent healthcare. it is by no means a paradise, but people are slowly starting to immigrate to our countries from the west as well. unsurprisingly, everyone is surprised how nice it is there in the beginning. so yeah, your info is dated mate. go visit eastern europe, see for yourself
It used to be a less expensive, beautiful country full of Czechs?
I have been waiting for a long time on this one Wolf, thanks, and looking forward to the deep dives.
Hi poor, and no more.
The deep dives comments are below. Up above, Julian and biker are playing tug- of- war with poland. Ill take biker and his experience.
On the deep dive below, the Bulgarians and romulans have teamed up against the Ferangi. The Vulcans are cloaked and are watching, at the ready.
Thanks for this article Wolf!
By the way, Bulgaria is in first place in Europe in terms of house price appreciation from the beginning of 2024: + 12 percent and ahead of Poland and Romania, leading the ranking for the most magnificent housing bubbles in Europe!
Romania +17.5 percent since 2010
Wolf, I’m not sure if you оr Eurostat missed a 0, that is +170 pr.!!!!
Bulgaria has a flat 10% income tax, which should draw people into the country and push up property prices. It takes a real estate purchase of just €310k to get a residency visa. In a way, one can get a ‘free’ house with the tax saved.
The flat income tax has nothing to do with property prices in Bulgaria.
What keeps the fire burning is rampant lending by commercial banks.
The government borrows at 4.75 percent and banks give out mortgage loans at a floating rate of 2.8 percent.
There are almost no requirements for borrowers, they can take 90 percent of the value of the property plus consumer credit for the balance and for other activities
This is an incredible economic precedent!
I will add that Bulgaria is second after Romania in Europe in property ownership per capita.
85 percent own one property and 10 percent own more than one.
Property taxes are ridiculously low, allowing people to collect properties that are sitting empty.
40 percent of properties in Bulgaria are empty, neither for sale nor for rent.
Although German prices are only down 15%, I bet a lot of Germans *feel like* they lost 30% of their potential value increase, relative to 2010 (or relative to whatever price they paid when they bought).
Yeah Wolfman, Italy is the only major western European country that appears to be suffering a population decline. That explains in part why real estate prices there have declined since 2010.
Italy population
1990: 56.7 million
2010: 59.3 million
2023: 58.9 million
Italy
…. shrinking Italy’s entire population by 384,000 in 2021 – the highest amount in nearly a century, according to a 2021 report by the Pulitzer Center.
The interesting thing about that population decrease is the theoretical decrease in debt for govt social services. Less population impacts supply and demand, and obviously increasing the availability of cheap homes, but obviously fewer services and uncertain future value.
That’s why Italy is paying people to become citizens and increase revenue
The population decline is both emigrants (young people moving abroad) and deaths (old people leaving this Earth generally). Only the latter is fiscally positive, the former has been part of the utter lack of growth of Italian GDP.
Interesting numbers and graphs, but they should also have immigrant numbers and GDP or economic growth figures plotted. Italy is well paid to keep the immigrants contained, but maybe the locals are not as enthusiastic, with no sign of economic growth in the country. In contrast the more conservative eastern block have attracted many returnees to their traditional societies, who are working hard and investing in their home countries, resulting in the highest growths in the EU. Immigrants are not welcome or not allowed. Recent visits to declining Rome and to growing Prague were a great surprise to me and it was very clear where I would choose to live. Take a look at the number of apartments for sale in each and their prices, although Prague is influenced by fleeing Russians.
But to see a truly splendid housing bubble, you really need to look at Australia.
New Zealand is up there, too, yes? Or maybe just at the top, the billionaire Apocalypse properties.
Australia is on a whole other level, even Canada and NZ are weak compared this bubble which is still growing rapidly
Would be interested to see what the inflation (real not the one which removes food, shelter and fuel from it…) adjusted prices are.
Thanks for all the hard work!
For you to see Euro Area inflation, including food and energy, it’s a two-step process:
1. Click on this:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/02/inflation-saga-far-from-over-services-inflation-in-the-euro-area-refuses-to-slow-for-8th-month-in-a-row/
2. Scroll down to the last chart
I started buying appartments in Paris as a student in the early 2000s. I had up to 15. In the last 5 years I sold every year. I only have 4 left. The prices are nonsensical. And the yields are next to nothing since they introduced capped rents, real estate wealth tax, and the IRs have gone from 1% to 5%. Bye bye.
Must be nice to afford buying apartments in Paris as a student.
He forgot to say – that was a Monopoly game he was playing.
German couple visit here every summer for 2 months or so. Her husband still works as an engineer and can only come for 2-3 weeks, but she has been retired for awhile. Her take on prices and trends in Germany. “Just like here, so many young people in debt to their ears, (I think she meant wazoo), housing too expensive. But what scares me the most is the surge of far right populist parties….everywhere, every country. Young people are voting for them, if they even bother to vote. They have all these simple answers that people want to hear”. The surge of immigration is fueling the scapegoating….no easy answers to climate and military upheavals forcing mass migrations.
I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. People migrate when they have to and have always done so. Can’t see it improving until human population starts to drop, and even that produces its own hot mess.
I think overgeneralizing Europe as moving right is inaccurate. They don’t have a two party setup like the US and while some have gone right, others like the UK are moving to the left. Even that is inaccurate as the Reform UK party(anti immigration, anti regulation, tax cuts, nationalism) picked up several seats. As a bad example the 1933 Nazi party received 43.9% of the vote. Scary what can happen in those ‘democratic’ parties.
Glen,
‘..others like the UK are moving to the left’
It’s true that the UK has just voted-out a party of the Right and replaced it with a party of the Left.
However, that’s due to the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
The new governing party only won 33.8% of the vote, according to the Statista website.
So, not really a move to the left at all.
It’s the bifurcation of the right. What is growing rapidly is rightist populism. Traditional conservatism is becoming less of a force.
“the surge of far right populist parties”
Far right. LOL. Barely right of center. That’s how skewed perceptions are now.
left versus right is irrelevant. the end result throughout history is that when people feel like the current system is not working for them, they crave an alternative.
it’s long past time that our leaders start heeding these warnings from the annals of history
ECB and other CBs hold the main responsibility for this unaffordability crisis. Their reckless money printing caused this terrible outcome.
WOLF: what exactly goes in to creating a “price index”?
I fail to see what these charts portend to show. i.e., does it show currency issues by country, speculation, the value of owning real estate or ???
Shouldn’t there be a cost index associated with these charts because over a 14 year period, there are significant costs of ownership that are not reflected in price.
1. THIS IS A COST INDEX — of housing costs!!!!! For crying out loud!!! Why do I keep getting this BS here that people want to compare housing costs to the costs gasoline and shoes and used cars??
You’re looking at charts of inflation in housing.
2. These indexes are NOT expressed in currency but as an index (change), and the currency that the home price changes are based on are the local currency (euro or otherwise). In addition, most of the countries on this list use the euro, and those that don’t use the euro have an exchange rate mechanism tied to the euro, where the local central bank intervenes in the market to keep the local currency in a fixed band to the euro (Poland et al.)
So you can take currency off your list. These are increases/decreases in housing costs. Live with it.
I recently heard an interview expressing an opinion that Italy will be in better economic shape that France — and that will probably impact home prices in both places.
Additionally, the French apparently had been big buyers of the yen as a carry trade, but as those two currencies devalue, some of the PIGS actually are showing some hope? Maybe buying a villa in Italy is worth a look.
“ Investors still consider Italian debt a greater risk that France’s. But that could change as the expensive Italian debt issued during the debt crisis rolls over at cheaper interest rates, and French economic and political risk rises as Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), currently topping the polls, shows a credible chance of winning the election. (The second round of voting is July 7.) Already, the yields on the debt of Portugal, one of the debt crisis’s bailout victims a dozen years ago, are slightly lower than France’s.”
Italian GDP is lower than it was in 2007, its industry is utterly moribund and wide open to increased Chinese competitiveness. With a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2023, but a government deficit of 7.4% of GDP! France may be getting bad, but Italy is much, much worse. Any global recession (2025) will be a nightmare for Italy.
With a fixed exchange rate against its main European trading partners (the Euro), and uncompetitive industries, Italy’s only option is internal deflation.
Interesting to watch Barcelona right now. Makes sense but also a city highly dependent on tourism. Reputations once earned are tricky to get back.
A massive and total crackdown on vacation rentals is on the Barcelona mayor’s to-do list by 2028. All touristy cities have the problem that investors convert housing stock into lodging for tourists — and the attitude has been: f**k the people who live in these cities. They’ve been waging a scorched-earth war on housing affordability.
Many cities have had it. A crackdown is good, limit them, make hosts pay taxes on them out the wazoo, etc. Even better would be a years-long global travel recession where these investors cannot meet their costs and default on their mortgages and lose the properties and whatever money they put into them, and those housing units end up with people who’ll actually live in them.
Oh my, oh my. What an anti-private property, pro-state person you are, Wolf.
You want this for the working class, not the mega rich class, correct?
In the smaller markets the attitude is:
People LIVE here?
An arrival next door asked me the other day: “Do you stay here all summer?”
“Yup, and all winter too!”
We have recently been revisiting our vacation rental legislations/ regulations too.
The locals have just been filmed spraying water at Brits eating in a restaurant. Not good…..same in all of Spain where people have been protesting at British and German tourists. The Brits will go somewhere else.
Like everywhere, I suppose, Italy is a tale of two (or more) markets.
Tuscany (Florence, countryside surrounding it) is at peak pricing. I don’t follow other areas as closely, but it’s pretty clear that “up and coming” areas like the nicer parts of Naples and Palermo are at peaks as well.
I suspect the averages are pulled down by the millions of homes in between, where few(er) want to live. At the extreme, there are those 1 EUR homes in some areas (which are really 100.000 EUR considering the mandatory renovations).
I agree. In the countryside prices are falling, in many touristic places there seems to be no decline or even an increase. Milano is insane…
Still ridiculously cheap versus the insane Canadian market!
The Case/Shiller Home price index follows long-term money flows. Always has, at least for a century.
Nothing to do with the Case-Shiller here.
The big question is whether these are simply normal corrections of 15- 20% after 100%+ price increases or just the beginning of larger price drops.
Europe suffered through real crashes in 2008-2010 and personally, I feel we aren’t looking at that kind of real estate deflation this cycle.
The term “pockets of weakness” comes to mind. Housing, economy, quality of life.
The world is a changing, there’s a lot of demand for the certain things (whichever they are today/ NVDA for example).
Then NO desire for a lot else (urban life in ‘Merica? Can’t say for others).
Very interesting article. Can’t help but wonder about the difference in the level of deflation between SFD and condos. I know pretty much nothing about European countries’ real estate markets. In Canada for example – I believe since 2015 the ratio of SFD to condos built is roughly 1 : 4 – 20% (SFD) to 80% (condos). This is bound to have quite an effect on market dynamics. One would think it would put more of a premium and higher floor on SFD prices. Are European countries similar I wonder?
Portugal housing has been bid up in price by Canadians. Portugal is one of the top spots worldwide for Canadian retirees. Mass emigration is coming from Canada.
The graph doesn’t do Portugal justice. The Lissabon & Porto area are massive bubbles bid up by rich immigrants (golden visa and a lot of remote workers + tourists) On the other hand the interiour is quite empty and dirt cheap.
Lissabon is as expensive as Berlin but the wages aren’t half.
But nearly half of Portugal’s population lives in Lisbon and Porto. The other half lives spread out across the rest of the country.
Finland is the most interesting, with a slightly declining flat landscape at the end. What measures are they taking to keep the market under control or nearly stagnant?
Yes Doc…i noticed Finland chart looked the most ”reasonable as well.
I too am curious how & why?
Anyone with answers?
Language, weather, and location.
In the case of Italy it is especially unnerving that so little growth has occurred when massive interventions have been taken to prop up the economy and housing.
They’ve had tax rebates amounting to 110% of the invested amount for quite a while now. The remodels are supposed to meet green standards and the such. Essentially people and businesses were paid by the govt to make capital improvements to their properties. They are just starting to phase them out. It was the main driver of the Italian growth story of the last 5 years. Without it we will see big problems. I’m predicting Italy sees some serious problems creep up in the next couple years.
Seeing lots of very nicely renovated houses and apartments in Italy, for example in Abruzzo, at incredibly reasonable prices. That makes sense now if they got so much government support for the renovations.
Wolf,
Could you bubblize Asia and Oceania when you have a chance?
You do not get a lot of house flipping in some Europe countries as they put on a 10% or a 12% tax on the purchase of house. So to make any profit on a flip it has to go up at least 12%.
Finland should be applauded for their stable currency policy. Housing is a depreciating asset so the gains in price in the other countries reflect the decline in local purchasing power, demand from immigration aside.
Portugal is very friendly for us Brits, so I’m not surprised prices are up. My niece has an appartment in the Algarve, not surprised as my family are all “going on holiday nuts” with sometimes four or more “vacations” a year. (yes, paid vacations, plus flexi time and working from home gives loads of time off)
France, where I go all the time, is looking a bit revolutionary at the moment (too many riots) and has not been friendly to Brits since Brexit, which means many just tell France to bog off.
Thank you very much for this article. My country (Sweden) suffered a major housing crash in the late 1980s, early 1990s. Prices fell about 40% in two years in central Stockholm. The market bottomed in the summer of 1993. I know this from personal experience, because I happened to buy an apartment there at the time. It is now worth between 1100% and 1200% more than what I paid. It’s quite strange to realize I’ve made more money (on paper) from living in my apartment than I have from working.
Welcome to the world of FIAT money. What has happened is your apartment still provides the same value as when you bought it. It just takes more devalued currency to buy the same assets. In reality, it really has not gone up in value….just price.