Home Sellers Grapple with Reality: Listing Prices Drop in Florida, California, Texas, and Suddenly even in New York

In New York, until recently a beacon of strength, the bottom fell out over the summer.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Listing prices are would-be-nice-to-get asking prices that sellers put on their wish-list but might not get. When sellers cut the price, the new price becomes the listing price. When sellers pull the home off the market because it didn’t sell, that price vanishes from the listing prices. When they put it back on the market at a lower price, that new price becomes the listing price. So listing prices show what sellers are struggling with. Those listing prices have been sinking in Florida, Texas, and California for the past few years. Transaction prices have also fallen or plunged in many markets in these states. But listing prices are now suddenly sinking in New York, where transaction prices had held up.

In Florida, the statewide median listing price in September has dropped by 13% from the peak for September in 2022, and by 3.5% year-over-year, to $409,950, the lowest since November 2021 (red in the chart).

On a square-foot basis, the median listing price has dropped by 7% from the peak for September in 2022, and by 3.8% year-over-year, to $249 per square foot, the lowest since December 2021, according to data by Realtor.com (blue).

The downtrend in listing prices in Florida has shown up in actual transaction prices, pushing a number of larger markets in Florida onto the WOLF STREET lists of the biggest decliners of transaction prices. Some markets got hit hard, and others just barely; condos got hit harder than single-family homes.

Actual transaction prices of single-family homes in many markets in Florida have dropped sharply from the peaks in 2022 or 2024, including in: Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers) -18%, Sarasota County -17%, Collier County (Naples) -12%, St. Petersburg -10%, Tampa -6%, Jacksonville & Orlando -5%.

Transaction prices of condos in many markets in Florida have plunged from their peaks in prior years, including in Cape Coral -34%, St. Petersburg -30%, Fort Myers -27%, Sarasota County -24%, Tampa -22%, Jacksonville -21%, Orlando -18%, etc. – and in four of them, transaction prices have plunged below their 2006 Housing Bubble peaks.

In California, the median listing price in September has declined by 6% from the peak for September in 2024, and by 3.1% year-over-year, to $725,000, the lowest September since, and the same as, September 2022 (red in the chart).

On a square-foot basis, the median listing price has dropped by 3.4% from September 2024, and 1.0% year-over-year, to $456 per square foot.

Transaction prices of single-family homes in many markets in California have dropped more or less sharply from their peaks in 2022 or 2024, and some have made the WOLF STREET list of the biggest decliners of single-family home prices: Oakland (-24%), Hayward (-13%), Sacramento (-9%), Stockton (-8%), San Francisco (-6%), San Diego (-4%), and Los Angeles (-4%).

Transaction prices of condos in many markets in California have made it on the WOLF STREET condo list of biggest decliners: Oakland which fell below the 2006 peak (-32%), Hayward (-17%), Contra Costa County in the East Bay, which also fell below the 2006 peak (-17%), Fremont where the Tesla factory is (-16%), San Mateo County, the northern part of Silicon Valley (-16%), etc.

In Texas, the median listing price in September has declined by 9% from the September high in 2022, and by 2.5% year-over-year, to $355,765, the lowest September since 2021 (red in the chart).

On a square-foot basis, the median listing price has dropped by 4% from September 2022, and by 2.1% year-over-year, to $181 per square foot.

Transaction prices of single-family homes in many cities in Texas are on the WOLF STREET list of the biggest decliners: Austin (-26%), McKinney (-14%), Fort Worth (-11%), San Antonio (-10%), Frisco -10%, Garland (-9%), Plano (-9%), Dallas (-7%), Arlington (-7%), etc.

Transaction prices of condos in many cities in Texas are on the WOLF STREET condo list of biggest decliners: Austin (-28%), Garland (-22%), Arlington (-19%), Plano (-17%), Houston (-15%), Dallas (-14%), Irving (-14%), San Antonio (-14%), Corpus Christi (-13%), Fort Worth (-9%), etc.

In New York State, the median listing price suddenly plunged in recent months, and by 6.8% year-over-year, to $605,000, the lowest September since 2023, after having flatlined at record levels over the prior two years.

Home prices in the big markets in New York had risen at a modest pace in recent years, while prices in many markets in Florida, Texas, California, and many other states had been falling. New York State was one of the forces that propped up the national median price and other national price indices, and kept them rising in the 1% to 2% range year-over-year. The entire Chicago area was another big factor. Those are huge housing markets that move the needle.

But this sudden big downdraft in listing prices may be a harbinger that change is afoot even in New York, which had been a beacon of strength in the housing market.

This move over the past few months was quite dramatic, with the peak spring months having already been down slightly on a year-over-year basis, but then the bottom fell out over the summer.