Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

In 31 bigger markets, prices of mid-tier condos through March have dropped between -12% and -31% from their respective peaks. In five of them, prices dropped by over 20%. The 27 most salient of those markets are shown in charts below, plus the City of Chicago, though it doesn’t belong on this list, but like other cities, it has a condo market where prices are back where they’d been 20 years ago.

Expanding the range of drops to -10%, the list grows to 38 bigger markets.

Expanding the range of drops to -7%, the list grows to 51 markets, which are shown in the table below.

Not included are smaller markets, such as Killeen, TX, a city with about 160,000 people, where condo prices have collapsed by 51% over the past three years through March, including by another 1.9% in March from February and by 20% year-over-year. Condo markets, which are very speculative and attract a lot of investors during boom times, can get rough quickly.

Most of the markets here a “cities.” But it also includes five counties. And it includes one metropolitan statistical area, the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro (cities of Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, Glendale, Gilbert, Tempe, and others), because the cities are roughly moving in lockstep with each other.

In some densely populated markets, such as Manhattan or San Francisco, condos and co-ops make up a big part or the majority of home sales. In most other markets, condos are a much smaller portion of home sales.

The 51 bigger markets where condo prices fell by 7% to 31% from their peaks:

	Market	Since peak	Year of peak
1	Oakland, CA	-31%	2022
2	St. Petersburg, FL	-28%	2022
3	Austin, TX	-26%	2022
4	Sarasota County, FL	-24%	2022
5	Lee County, FL (Cape Coral, Fort Myers)	-23%	2022
6	Jacksonville, FL	-19%	2022
7	Tampa, FL	-19%	2021
8	Detroit, MI	-19%	2021
9	Garland, TX	-19%	2022
10	Collier County (Naples), FL	-17%	2022
11	Manhattan, NY	-17%	2022
12	Arlington, TX	-17%	2024
13	Port Saint Lucie, FL	-16%	2024
14	Denver, CO	-16%	2022
15	Aurora, CO	-16%	2022
16	Orlando, FL	-16%	2024
17	San Mateo County (northern Silicon Valley), CA	-15%	2022
18	Reno, NV	-15%	2022
19	Raleigh, NC	-15%	2022
20	Queens, NY	-14%	2022
21	Seattle, WA	-14%	2022
22	Plano, TX	-14%	2022
23	Houston, TX	-13%	2024
24	San Antonio, TX	-13%	2024
25	Boise, ID	-13%	2022
26	Portland, OR	-13%	2022
27	Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro, AZ	-13%	2024
28	San Francisco, CA	-12%	2022
29	Sacramento, CA	-12%	2022
30	Fort Lauderdale, FL	-12%	2022
31	Huntsville, AL	-12%	2022
32	Dallas, TX	-11%	2023
33	Colorado Springs, CO	-11%	2022
34	New Orleans	-11%	2022
35	Stockton, CA	-11%	2022
36	Henderson, NV	-11%	2022
37	Corpus Christi, TX	-11%	2023
38	Las Vegas, NV	-10%	2022
39	Salt Lake City, UT	-9%	2022
40	Nashville, TN	-9%	2022
41	Spokane, WA	-9%	2022
42	Washington, DC	-9%	2022
43	Atlanta, GA	-9%	2023
44	Fort Worth, TX	-8%	2024
45	Miami, FL	-8%	2023
46	Memphis, TN	-8%	2024
47	St. Louis, MO	-8%	2023
48	San Diego, CA	-7%	2023
49	Oklahoma City, OK	-7%	2023
50	San Jose, CA	-7%	2022
51	Los Angeles, CA	-7%	2022

Some people buy condos to live in an urban center, close to work, or along the shore, with big views, nice amenities, without having to worry about maintenance, repairs, and yardwork. They are like other homeowners and provide some stability.

But other people buy condos as rental properties – a popular way for mom-and-pop investors to get into multifamily rentals. Others operate condos as short-term vacation rentals. Others, especially nonresident foreign investors, buy condos to park some cash in the US and watch the price appreciate while the condo sits empty. Condos are popular second homes and vacation homes, including for Canadians in Florida. And there are reports about Canadians having soured recently on their condos in the US, and on buying condos in the US.

These investors can make condos very speculative, with big mind-bending manias followed by big crashes, as the charts below show.

Condo prices in many of these cities had exploded by 50%, 60%, 70% or more in the two years from mid-2020 through mid-2022, driven by mindboggling absurd buying behavior, investor-mania, and Free Money, such as in Cape Coral (+76%), Fort Myers (+71%), Phoenix (+70%), Huntsville (+67%), Sarasota (+66%), Tampa (+61%), Austin (+56%), Las Vegas (+52%), Raleigh (+52%), Jacksonville (+50%), etc., etc.

In the 10 years to the peak, prices had soared by 180% (Oakland), 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, Chandler), 350% (Phoenix, Mesa), and by 500% in San Bernardino, CA, where prices just started to decline, and it hasn’t made it on this list yet.

The biggest year-over-year price declines.

These are the markets, among our 51 markets, with the biggest year-over-year price declines in March.

• Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), FL: -14.3%
• St. Petersburg, FL: -13.2%
• Oakland, CA: -13.1%
• Garland, TX: -13.0%
• Sarasota County, FL: -12.0%
• Tampa, FL: -10.4%
• Orlando, FL: -9.5%
• Jacksonville, FL: -9.4%
• Collier County (Naples): -9.4%
• Port Saint Lucie, FL: -9.1%
• Plano, TX: -8.5%
• Raleigh, NC: -7.9%
• Aurora, CO: -7.6%
• Huntsville, AL: -7.5%
• Houston, TX: -6.6%
• Detroit, MI: -6.6%
• San Mateo County (northern Silicon Valley), CA: -6.6%
• Denver, CO: -6.4%
• Arlington, TX: -6.4%
• Stockton, CA: -6.4%
• Dallas, TX: -6.2%
• San Jose (part of southern Silicon Valley), CA: -6.0%
• Las Vegas, NV: -6.0%
• San Diego, CA: -5.6%
• Austin, TX: -5.5%
• Seattle, WA: -5.1%

Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals.

The Condo Bust by market in 27 charts, plus Chicago.

The tables for each market below show from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000.

Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-31%	-0.7%	-13.1%	142%

Lowest since August 2015, over a decade ago, and below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in mid-2006, 20 years ago!

St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices
From Oct 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-28%	-0.1%	-13.2%	183%

Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-26%	-0.5%	-5.5%	108%

Sarasota County, FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-24%	-0.8%	-12.0%	134%

Prices are below where they’d been at the peak of Housing Bubble 1.

Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-23%	-1.0%	-14.3%	113.7%

Condo prices in the City of Cape Coral itself have plunged by 32% and are below where they’d first been 20 years ago in October 2005, below the peak of Housing Bubble 1. Cape Coral is the epicenter of the Florida condo bust.

In the City of Fort Myers, condo prices plunged by 27%.

Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices
From Sep 2021 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-19%	-0.7%	-6.6%	247%

Lowest since June 2018.

Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-19%	-1.1%	-13%	212%

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, prices had shot up by 320%.

Manhattan, NY, Condo & Co-Op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	0.4%	1.4%	211%

Prices in the Borough of Manhattan (New York County) are where they’d first been in August 2014.

 

Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	-0.3%	-6.4%	229%

In the four years between mid-2020 and mid-2024, prices exploded by 63%, after having already shot up in the prior decade.

Collier County (Naples), FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-17%	-0.4%	-9.4%	158%

Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.8%	-6.4%	133%

Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.6%	-7.6%	198%

Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices
From Jan 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.4%	-9.5%	152.2%

Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.2%	-9.1%	229.2%

Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.2%	-4.2%	241%

San Mateo County, CA, Condo & Co-op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.2%	-6.6%	197%

San Mateo County, just south of San Francisco, encompasses the northern part of Silicon Valley. There are no big cities in the county, but lots of smaller ones, packed together, such as Redwood City, Menlo Park, San Mateo, Daly City, San Carlos, and others.

Raleigh, NC, City, Condo Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	-0.5%	-7.9%	135.3%

Seattle, WA, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	-0.4%	-5.1%	135%

Queens, NY, Condo & Co-Op Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-14%	0.0%	1.9%	191%

Prices in the NYC Borough of Queens (Queens County) are back where they’d first been in March 2018.

Houston, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2023 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.4%	-6.6%	67%

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA, AZ, Condo Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.4%	-3.5%	207%

The Phoenix metropolitan statistical area includes the cities of Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, Glendale, Gilbert, Tempe, and many others. Condo prices have moved very similarly, all down between 13% to 14%. So it makes sense to show prices at the metro level.

If these cities were tracked separately, it would raise the number of cities that dopped by -12% or more to over 37.

San Antonio, TX, City, Condo Prices
From Aug 2023 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.2%	-4.5%	125%

Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	-0.2%	-3.8%	109%

Lowest since May 2016, a decade ago.

Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2001
-13%	-0.2%	0%	221%

San Francisco, CA, City, Condo Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	0.9%	2.8%	152%

Sacramento, CA, City, Condo Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.6%	-4.8%	275%

The City of Chicago doesn’t fit on this list because in March, condo prices were just a hair below the record of mid-2022. But it’s like some other markets in the US that are now about where they’d been 20 years ago.

Chicago, IL, City, Condo & Co-op, ZHVI
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.5%	1.2%	73.3%

And a reminder of the special issues that condos confront:

• Over the long term, land appreciates, most buildings depreciate to zero and are eventually torn down. The land that big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner gets 100% of any appreciation of the land.
• Prices that exploded over the past few years ended up being way too high, once the mania settled down.
• Hefty special assessments – or the fear of them – for long-neglected major repairs dog some older condo buildings.
• Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, partly driven by spiking insurance costs in natural disaster zones, add substantially to the monthly costs of condos.
• If a condo building is on Fannie Mae’s Blacklist, financing a unit in that building gets very difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers who’ll exact their pound of flesh.
• The Free Money has ended, and mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range. Buyers of single-family homes face the same issue.
• Foreign-based owners who’ve had it with the US and want to sell. And there are fewer foreign-based buyers.
• Investors in condos as rental properties are facing stiff competition from a wave of newly completed higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for.

And in case you missed it:   The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026

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