US Treasury Debt-to-GDP Ratio Rises to 122% in Q4, Highest since Covid Spike by Wolf Richter • Feb 21, 2026 • 137 Comments The ugly debt monster grew faster than current-dollar GDP.
PCE Inflation (2.9%, 3.0%) and GDP Inflation (3.7%) Got Hotter, but CPI Inflation (2.4%) Cooled. Why? The Fed Needs to Pay Serious Attention by Wolf Richter • Feb 21, 2026 • 48 Comments The PCE price index gets pushed down far less by the doctored housing index than CPI does because housing weighs half as much in PCE.
Hot Inflation & Plunge in Federal Government Spending Slam Real GDP. But Trade Deficit Least Bad in 2 Years by Wolf Richter • Feb 20, 2026 • 28 Comments Domestic private demand, without government and trade, rose by 2.4% adjusted for inflation.
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to be a ‘Mess’”) by Wolf Richter • Feb 20, 2026 • 83 Comments Markets not surprised. 10-year Treasury yield rises modestly.
Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low in the Data, from Already Low Levels, on Big Drops in the South & Midwest by Wolf Richter • Feb 19, 2026 • 82 Comments “Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity”: National Association of Realtors.
Single-Family & Multifamily Construction: Bring on the Supply just as Population Growth Slows to a Crawl by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2026 • 53 Comments This is precisely what this overpriced and frozen housing market needs.
Orders for Durable Goods at US Manufacturers Jump 7.8% in 2025 to Record on AI Infrastructure & Civilian Aircraft by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2026 • 22 Comments Machinery, fabricated metals, electrical equipment, motor vehicles, and nondefense aircraft all hit records.
Serious Delinquency Rates for Subprime & Prime Auto Loans, Balances, and Debt-to-Income Ratio in Q4 2025 by Wolf Richter • Feb 17, 2026 • 50 Comments The high-risk, high-profit ecosystem of subprime auto loans is not for the squeamish.
US Government Sold $701 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. As Deficits Balloon, Bond Math Is Relentlessly Brutal by Wolf Richter • Feb 14, 2026 • 114 Comments Sold $54B of 10-Year Treasury notes at 4.18% to replace $25B of maturing 1.73% 10-year notes, pushing up amount outstanding by $29B.
Services Inflation Spikes in January, but Bad-Joke OER CPI Pushes Down on Year-over-Year CPI. OER is Huge and Bad by Wolf Richter • Feb 13, 2026 • 112 Comments Gasoline & used-vehicle prices plunge, food inflation backs off for a moment, natural gas bills jump.
