New Highs: Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, New York, Miami, Tampa, Washington DC, Chicago.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Home prices in the 20 metropolitan areas of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index saw the smallest month-to-month increase since the decline five months ago, continuing a trend of deceleration. The data released today for “June” are three-month moving averages of sales entered into the public records in April, May, and June.
Per metro, home prices rose month-to-month in 19 of the 20 metros. The exception was the five-county San Francisco Bay Area, where prices of single-family houses were roughly unchanged, and condo prices dipped. In Portland, the month-to-month price increase slowed to just 0.1%, in Tampa, the price increase slowed to 0.2%. This price dynamic comes as demand has plunged because prices are too high, and supply has surged.
Prices below 2022 highs in 7 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles (month of peak):
- San Francisco Bay Area: -7.0% (May 2022)
- Phoenix: -4.2% (June 2022)
- Seattle: -4.0% (May 2022)
- Portland: -2.9% (May 2022)
- Denver: -2.6% (May 2022)
- Dallas: -1.9% (June 2022)
- Las Vegas: -0.4% (July 2022)
The most splendid housing bubbles by metropolitan area.
San Francisco Bay Area single family houses: the San Francisco metro in the Case-Shiller Index covers five counties (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo) of the nine-county Bay Area.
- Month to month: unchanged
- Year over year: +4.3%.
- From the peak in May 2022: -7.0%.
San Francisco Bay Area condos: Condos are a big part of the market in the Bay Area, particularly in the city of San Francisco.
- Month to month: -0.2%.
- Year over year: +1.0%.
- From the peak in May 2022: -7.5%.
- Just a notch above May-August 2018.
Seattle metro:
- Month to month: +0.6%.
- Year over year: +6.7%.
- From the peak in May 2022: -4.0%.
Phoenix metro:
- Month to month: +0.4%.
- Year over year: +3.7%.
- From the peak in June 2022: -4.2%.
Portland metro:
- Month to month: +0.1%.
- Year over year: +0.8%.
- From the peak in May 2022: -2.9%.
Denver metro:
- Month to month: +0.3%.
- Year over year: +1.9%.
- From the peak in May 2022: -2.6%.
Dallas metro:
- Month to month: +0.4%.
- Year over year: +2.3%.
- From the peak in June 2022: -1.9%.
Las Vegas metro:
- Month to month: +1.2%.
- Year over year: +8.6%.
- From the peak in July 2022: -1.3%.
Tampa metro:
- Month to month: +0.2%.
- Year over year: +3.1%.
- New high, +1.5% from July 2022 high.
San Diego metro:
- Month to month: +0.7%.
- Year over year: +8.7%.
- New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
Los Angeles metro
- Month to month: +0.6%.
- Year over year: +8.2%.
- New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
Washington D.C. metro:
- Month to month: +0.6%.
- Year over year: +6.0%.
- New high, +6.7% from June 2022 high.
Boston metro:
- Month to month: +0.7%.
- Year over year: +6.6%.
- New high, +7.5% from June high 2022.
Miami metro:
- Month to month: +0.7%.
- Year over year: +6.9%.
- New high, +8.1% from July 2022 high.
New York metro:
- Month to month: +0.6%.
- Year over year: +9.0%.
- New high, +12.5% from June 2022 high.
To qualify for the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, the metro must have experienced home-price inflation since 2000 of 200% or more at the peak. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. Today’s index value for San Diego of 449 is up 349% since 2000, making San Diego the most splendid housing bubble on this list, ahead of Los Angeles (447) and Miami (443).
The remaining 6 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) had much less home-price inflation since 2000 despite the price spikes in recent years, and don’t qualify for this list.
Chicago metro has an index value of 209 and is up by 109% from the year 2000, and is therefore far from qualifying for this list. But the near-50% price spike since the Fed started its money-printing binge in March 2020 has been splendid in its own right, and the metro is so huge – eight counties: Cook, DeKalb, Du Page, Grundy, Kane, Kendal, McHenry, and Will – that it deserves a place:
- Month to month: +1.0%
- Year over year: +7.0%.
- New high, +10.8% from July 2022 high.
Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses were sold previously. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred. Adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (37-page methodology).
It’s just home price inflation. By measuring how many dollars it takes to buy the same house over time, the Case-Shiller index is a measure of home-price inflation. San Diego had 349% home price inflation since 2000. Over the same period, consumer price inflation, as measured by CPI, amounted to 86%.
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All the oxygen in the world must be on the inside of these bubbles. I’m suffocating on the outside.
Interesting. I’m doing just fine on the outside. Bought some popcorn for Nvidia earnings tomorrow.
Speaking of Nvidia, read an article about how their employees work quite a bit and put up with shouting matches in meetings, etc but no one wants to quit because of the golden handcuff from RSU, options..etc.
If they tank, I am guessing turnover will be pretty interesting after…
If (when) Nvidia tanks, then the Mag 7 tanks, then there is turnover everywhere; then the housing market tanks.
Going to 200. All day
I want to buy more but can’t before earnings call. Oh well.
Every business should consist of shouting matches. Passion for the work is what drives great companies. Look at Apple under Jobs and Microsoft under Gates — it was *all* shouting matches until those companies gained their monopolistic dominance! This “toxic worplace” crap is why the quality/usefulness/features of so many products is going downhill. Just look at the high quality of Wolfstreet and his “BS” and “RTGDFA” acroyms in the comments! He cares, and it shows in his amazing articles!
Not great earnings call today.
I foresee a wolf article Chronicling a Nvidia fall.
still hoping the future is bright, just have to eat some disappointment today. lol
@sufferinsucatash nah as of this morning it is looking like another nothing burger.. don’t underestimate the power of FOMO BTFD buyers both retail and institutions. It’s looking like it’ll barely be a drop today and might even end higher closing today
It dropped today Phoenix
It’ll go back up, no worries.
The day was like a psych out,
Fine fine fine and then at 3pm it all bottomed a bit. Tommorow could be rough. But who knows
Don’t worry, we’ll soon have even more demand when rate cuts arrive to save the day!
Agreed!
The 30YFM is down 80 basis points since April. It MAY push towards 6.25% by Sept 18th. With the strong signal the Fed has given that a rate cut is coming, I don’t foresee an inflation surprise on 9/6, so we could be looking at 6% rates by late Sept.
I’m in the camp that says this time is materially difference and the labor market isn’t going to fall off a cliff in the next 3-6 months. If this is the case, Wolf’s report next spring could be a real eye opener in terms of resurgent home sales, prices & inflation in general.
Bubbles are inflated by Hopium, a special element which has zero mass and no sense of responsibility, but infinite potential energy.
Hopium, like Schrodinger’s cat, only exists so long as no one seriously questions whether it’s real or not.
Just gotta be like Cali.
Call it liquid littering and make it illegal.
Emotionally, I agree. Thanks Wolf for presenting in all their bold faced simple truth, graphically enhanced, data.
I look forward to your home price articles as I do a doctor’s visit. Necessary but scary, in the sense she might find something wrong. The same uncomfortable anticipation as I view each of the housing price data, merrily skipping near record territory with the backdrop is the lowest sales in at least a decade.
What I can’t help but see is a failure of the basic tenants of the capitalist model which is that markets automatically balance asking versus selling price. The discrepancy between the two is untenable. IMO
Urg…welcome to this Fxxking new normal, guess a crapbox will be $2M in another half a decade the way things are going in these areas…guess only housing and stock are the only thing that will defy gravity and can only up forever..
Oh well, at least by then I will have enough for a house in some South asian country…that will be my plan B
San Diego metro:
Month to month: +0.7%.
Year over year: +8.7%.
New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
Los Angeles metro
Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +8.2%.
New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
I’ve been working for many months on switching data sets to something that doesn’t lag as much as the Case Shiller — we’re looking at deals here that were made in the spring. I’m just really tired of this long lag (ca. 3-4 months).
So raw median prices are essentially useless since they jump up and down, battered by changes in the mix of what sells and by other factors.
I have found one data set that matches the Case-Shiller very closely but doesn’t lag nearly as much. I have run both series for months to see how the compare, including how the revisions compare. I’m ready to make the switch. And the next “Most Splendid” piece will be based on the new data set.
There are other advantages to switching to the new set, including that the new data is not limited to these cities, so that I can include metros like Houston, Austin, and Philadelphia. Public announcement of the shift, including detailed explanation and some data-geek stuff, coming in a couple of weeks.
But the point here is: on this less-laggy data set, San Diego already rounded the top in the reading for July and began to dip. This will show up in the Case Shiller in about 3 months.
Interesting! Curious to see this. What about Los Angeles? Are they in lockstep? Did Los Angeles peak as well? Thanks!
LA seems to be about a month or two behind SD. It booked a small gain for July, the smallest since the drop in January, and you can see the rounding of the top in the chart after the big increases earlier this year.
Excellent, as always looking forward to the data you put on this site Wolf. I do agree with you about the lag data effect in housing, sadly this is something the MSM and housing bulls will latch on to over and over again. For people like myself on the sideline, it’s just discouraging to see..
Wolf — how will you get reliable numbers for a city like Austin? Texas is a non-disclosure state which makes tracking histories pretty difficult.
Technical discussion coming with the announcement.
How do Texas tax assessors determine value?
@ Taxpayer — Google Systemic Appraisal Fraud in Texas.
When a house is sold in Texas, the appraisal value is reset to the sale price, unless it is lower than the previous appraisal. After that they apply a mysterious formula to raise the appraised value every year. This is done to keep citizens under the illusion they live a low tax state.
Finally bro!
Lol
Wolf, you can consider using median sales price per square foot. That reduces some of the issues associated sales mix changes.
It shaves off some of the mix issues, but it adds new issues too, especially in big metros with outlying areas where homes are bigger but less expensive than more centrally located homes. So if there is a shift in the mixt to homes in the suburbs (bigger but less expensive, so less per square foot) from homes in the center (smaller but more expensive, so more per square foot), the price per square foot will show a price decline when it was just a shift in the mix. And vice versa. So it’s not a panacea.
“using median sales price per square foot.”
You go to be kidding! I don’t recommend using this methodology. The 1,500 sq foot brick Rambler that we appraised a few months back sold for over $1,200 per sq foot. The reason it sold so high is that it was recently renovated, located walking distance from a rail metro stop, on an attractive tree lined street, a relatively good school district and in an established neighborhood. People here are fed up with long commutes, traffic jams and all the other craziness associated with the typical suburban lifestyle, and are willing to pay top dollar to have these amenities.
Can you please include Nashville as well?
Probably not. It’s the #35th largest metro in the US, and I’m probably going to cut off at around #20.
Grow Nashville Grow!
Be a real boy one day!
😆
Do you have a favorite way to calculate home affordability over time?
No, but that Atlanta Fed has an interactive home affordability monitor. You can google that. It’s near record lows, but the data only goes back to 2006.
I think the level is at: “Sell Your Grandma”
This would be an amazing addition! Can’t wait to see it!
Thanks for allyour hard work.
In Chicago home prices have definitely started to soften where Case-Schiller reported a 1% increase. Looking forward to your update!
That’s great news! Can’t wait for the Philly stats, been wondering how it compares.
Sales volume is reported here for existing homes:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/22/here-comes-the-inventory-of-vacant-homes-while-buyers-strike-continues-despite-drop-in-mortgage-rates/
And for new single-family houses:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/23/inventory-of-new-completed-houses-surges-to-highest-since-2009-triple-from-2-years-ago-exactly-whats-needed-to-bring-down-prices-across-the-housing-market/
This series here is about prices!!
Living in a South Asian country would be an excellent Plan B or even a Plan A. Why live like a bum in the US when you can enjoy a higher quality of life elsewhere?
My friends who “know” that houses and stocks always go up have made infinitely more financially successful moves than me the past decade…
Yeah I know what you mean, that’s the price contrarian is paying now when it comes to housing or stock market. The amount of eggs we have on our face can probably make a giant omelette and they are having the laugh for a very long time, last laugh? Only time will tell I guess…
this is where it’s appropriate to say that stocks and houses haven’t really gone up, the fiat currency has gone down.
It can be phrased any which way. But the matter of fact is if your money isn’t in stocks and real estate then you’re losing
Example: Me
I’m a dumbass too.
I know a lot of former dumbasses who now look like geniuses.
Sorry to disappoint, but those who hold what you describe, are doing just fine…
Nah — what you call milk ‘n’ honey is just smoke & mirrors, baby.
Home prices and Stock market is supported by Govt/FED and I think it won’t go down in a meaningful ever again
No incentive to let it fall. Corrections will happen and bubbles will burst, but it’s up and away forever.
If it keeps going up, most of the population stays happy and they can tax the capital gains.
Oh man you gotta hate these people.
And they prob made tons of $ too. What a paradox
Meanwhile I see an idiot in $100,000 ford yelling at a bank teller in the drive thru today. What’s wrong bro? Payments too high?
No kidding. i told some retired friends a year ago they should be more conservative and not have 80% in SP500. . They are glad they did not listen to me. lol. Now they are planning some trips to europe on their SP500 gains this year.
I just did not think the FED would do such a good job at a no landing and to bring inflation down this much. I thought at least a soft landing.
Tell ‘em to go to Vegas; Europe doesn’t want them…
It’s worse than that for me, people are openly dismissing my opinion because I have been wrong for so long.
We shall see as the world turns back toward the reality of a Keynesian agenda from testing the disproved, monetarists dreams.
It would inetesting to see property taxes correlation along with these charts. Or overall ownership cost.
Will be watching my local markets for houses in my neighborhood that are similar to mine. Not looking to sell nor does it have a lot of meaning outside of sheer curiosity. Guessing they will move upward as despite way above the national average Northern California, above Bay Area, is still a steal compared to most things South of it. 2500 sqft for 650-700K in a 25 year old house in a decent neighborhood is still crazy to think of as a deal but it is what it is.
Northern California is one of the most beautiful areas of the country — that might figure into it a bit
Where is that? Starter homes in Marin in….1998….were about that much???
So inventory is climbing, mortgage demand is in the toilet, and yet prices are still going up. No offense, but how naive are buyers right now? You’re offering over ask on a house that’s been sitting with no other offers. Make it make sense.
Cash buyers can still likely work deals. My friend has to sell his house in SoCal and they needed a cash buyer who would agree to let some of them live in the house for a year. Chinese buyer grabbed it right up. That is probably not typical but cash sales may be.
I am sure this is more common in SoCal, especially given what’s going on in China right now, they were doing this before RE collapse over there so more motivation for the rich to move money offshore if they manage to do so…
I do have a lot of contempt for this group fxxking over local buyers and but maybe not as much contempt as the lack of action from government to do something meaningful about it
I think the government should do the same thing they did back in the 1980’s when the Japanese were buying up all of the real estate.
Warren,
From 19 August 2024’s Red River Farm Network, Grand Forks.
“Better System Sought for Tracking Foreign-Owned Farmland”
“A bipartisan group of 14 senators is asking the USDA to streamline the process for disclosing foreign-owned land. This information is now tracked on physical paper through manual entry. The lawmakers contend inaccurate information has been posted, which undermines the credibility of the information. South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds was the one lawmaker from the tri-state region signing this letter.”
I offer no opinion/judgement on this news item. But, I do find it interesting that both of Minnesota’s senators, and likewise, both of North Dakota’s did not sign the letter.
Chinese buyers are buying all over the good western cities.
I have friends in Vancouver and Sydney : Best neighborhoods are full of Chinese.
Anecdotal evidence ofc.
“Hi! I’m here from the government, ready to institute a new system for you to track land ownership since the previous one we created isn’t working very well. Don’t worry, we will do a much much better job this time. You can take that to the bank!”
Do the Japanese own all the real estate? See Rockefeller Center…
The FOMO is still strong with some, apparently.
MikeHunt, buyers are not naive, there is a lot of bottled up demand for housing from Millennials, and any dip in mortgage rates will bring another bump up in pricing. We are at the start of another leg up in housing, buckle up.
“any dip in mortgage rates will bring another bump up in pricing.”
LOL. Mortgage rates started dropping last November, and have dropped 150 basis points since then, and mortgage applications have collapsed, sales volume has collapsed and supply has surged.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/21/home-buyers-strike-expands-even-as-mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-since-may-2023-but-surging-refis-will-speed-up-the-feds-qt/
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/22/here-comes-the-inventory-of-vacant-homes-while-buyers-strike-continues-despite-drop-in-mortgage-rates/
The info is distorted due to the buyers who can afford a house.
You and 10 friends are in the market for a house, if you can all afford a house on any of your salaries starting from $20k to $500k that would be a great market. But if only the $500k salary friend can afford a house at $1 million, and nobody else can, then the average would jump to $1 million.
Why is San Diego going up like this?
It’s already going down, but the Case Shiller lags 3-4 months. See my other comments here about changing to a less laggy data set by next time.
even according to the super-laggy Case-Shiller index here, the month-to-month increase was the smallest since the drop 6 months ago.
In my hood, Home Prices marching up and up. Insurance Cost going up and up like crazy. Stock Market touching new highs . Unemployment quite low.. Food Prices quite high.. Cost of Living going up and up.
But Yes we do need rate cuts not 25 bps but 75bps.
Wolf,
What would be the fastest way to get the numbers for Miami metro, or all Florida for that matter, condominiums? With the recently enacted reserve requirements along with the increased cost of insurance the market has locked up. Currently there are, as listed on Realtor.com, 10,681 units listed in Dade, 9,400 in Broward and 5,950 in Palm Beach County. That does not include By Owner nor those held from inventory due to softness in the market. Many are seasonally occupied which distorts the market.
Point me in the right direction, I will be happy to research.
Case-Shiller only tracks condos in Boston, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco but I would bet South Florida has more units than all but New York and LA.
As to listings in the other 5 metros, Los Angeles County has only 3557 condos listed, and New York has only 7,000. Oakland Park FL, with 44,000 residents has as many listings as Oakland CA. Going to be a lot of retirees selling in a hurry.
Nowhere near normalization in the Tampa Bay/Sarasota housing market – prices doubled after Covid and now leveling out, not seeing any meaningful downturn.
I also live in the Sarasota area. I check the local housing market every day and I agree, we’ve seen little more than the normal seasonal price reductions. However, inventory has skyrocketed and we have new construction through the nose…somethings got to give.
Seems like the right time to cut rates. Housing market still going up in demand areas, all time highs for stocks, employment still good (according to the media.
Perfect time to start ZIRP back up.
Looking at the data for the Seattle area I notice that prices went from 130 at the low to 410 at the high and have now settled back down to 400.
Houses are still selling quickly in my zip code [98053]. Prices might have leveled off a bit.
So is a rapid acceleration in prices followed by a 2.5% drop in price really a bubble? Seems like a real stretch to me. If interest rates go down prices are going to go back up again.
Of course, if prices drop another 25% then I would agree it was a bubble.
Redmond is not Seattle (fortunately :)
True, but the data I was referring to was the entire Seattle area. The 98053 comment was just a local anecdote.
And yes, thank God Redmond is not Seattle….yet.
Enlightened:
I don’t need the sun to set in order to determine whether or not it was “daytime.”
A stark acceleration from trend, a price that is not related to the value or general (upward) price distortions are what make a bubble.
The “deflation” of it does not, nor is it necessarily required. Stagnation, illiquidity and/ or a complete market shift may occur.
I think about the metals. Tons of copper enter the real economy daily.
Uranium and rhodium are essentially illiquid. The prices of the latter have been recently volatile. The volume of delivery is not matched by the price appreciation. Speculators can profit and drive price, but they are not the “market makers.”
If the market is not moving, is it really a “market”?
DM: The average home price across the country was $442,500 as of May – which is ‘relatively stable compared to the same time last year,’ according to Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
But some areas are seeing big drops, including Miami where the average price dropped 11 percent.
It’s relatively stable with the same time two years ago!!!
Wolf,
Couple of FOMC members talked about how this rate hike cycle didnt impact Housing sector a lot compared to what they had expected/imagined.
To me, This should not be surprise to anyone as People are holding 3% mortgages. Builders are selling new homes with interest rate discounts. But only areas where new homes are built up.
With Labor market good, why we will have huge Price reductions in Housing? People are still crazy and buying homes in SF Metro Peninsula Area at record prices. 5% down from ATH is not major correction. Don’t you agree?
I dont treat home as investment or anything but something to stay for long term. Isnt this what American Dream is?
What do you and others on in this forum advise to people who are waiting to buy.. One side feel like this market is crazy bubble other side don’t see them bursting anytime soon if FED starts cutting cycle.
Maybe there will be no burst but rather a slow downward drift –a blimp with a slow leak rather than the Hindenburg
Maybe we are currently at the peak of the housing bubble, and in ten years, those purchasing houses at these prices may end up being in a negative equity situation. I have no option but to wait and observe as I fail to see the value in these single-family homes in Oakland.
10 years!……..
A lot of people have been waiting like 6 years already.
I’m sure I’ll feel smug too when prices drop after I’m dead.
Housing bubble my ass. More like a shit government full of grifters and bankers having their way with the American people. Not the brightest people though so it’s not hard to fool them.
Oakland!
Wow.
2% inflation over 35 years sees a doubling of values.
Here we see 2-3x in just 20 years.
Good old FRB!
There’s been a huge and permanent increase in residential real estate prices. It was driven by a surplus in savings over real investment outlets. It will weigh on US standard of livings for a long time. The economic engine is being run in reverse.
It’s called the pull forward effect of cheap credit. A lot of demand for housing was pulled forward. Demand now is commensurately smaller even with sinking mortgage rates. Price was driven by easy credit and can be undone just as easily by any amount of financial stress.
For housing, one of the important financial stress was high rates. 30Y mortgage rates touched 8% but it didn’t make any dent to home prices.
Rates are still quite high in comparison with 3% but this seems to be not making any dent.
The rates can only go lower from here, not sure about home prices.
Home prices would only go down with high unemployment but I guess in this case, Govt would send checks to households with moratorium on mortgage payments. This is what happened during pandemic and this set a precedent.
CA is in the verge of passing a bill which would give 150K to first time home buyer even if they are un documented immigrant.
Kamala Harris if elected would do the same.
All these won’t make housing affordable but it’d increase the price for all and make the builders / how sellers rich as they’d jack up the price and
“CA is in the verge of passing a bill which would give 150K to first time home buyer even if they are un documented immigrant.”
That’s headline BS from the clickbait BS media. CA has had these down-payment assistant loans for a while, they’re loans, and they include a requirement to pay off the loan and pay part of the price gains to the state when the house is sold.
What’s new is that this law, if passed, will make it illegal to ask for immigration status of the borrower when the loan is issued.
It will be difficult for asset prices to drop because any drop treatens employment, which puts the Fed back into action.
The question is, how far can asset prices drop, absent Fed stimulative action?
The most recent stock price scare, which lasted just a few days but saw VIX shoot to 60, was quickly followed by a Fed rate pivot. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
I think the downside risk is limited to situations in which markets loose faith in the Fed’s willingness or ability to massively stimulate. Powell won’t go there. He’s very cautious, always erring on the side of inflation.
The last stimulus nearly blew up the economy with inflation. They’re at the end of their rope. As evident by the last few rate cycles the Fed can’t actually save assets from crashing. They might blow serial larger bubble but eventually this kills the host.
Case-Shiller only reports what it reports. Residential REO listings & foreclosures are trending up in DC, MD & VA. Those trades will never appear in Case-Shiller data. TFS
Tom,
You are teasing us with this.
Are foreclosure rates higher than 2019 pre pandemic rates?
How fast are they trending up?
Tom Sarelas,
Foreclosures are trending up from RECORD lows:
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/07/here-come-the-helocs-mortgages-the-burden-of-mortgage-debt-delinquencies-and-foreclosures-in-q2/
We see the same thing in refis:
“Refis surge…” week over week… from zero to… 3?
Kind of. They more than doubled, from very low levels. Where that is starting to make a difference is with the Fed’s MBS QT (otherwise, it doesn’t make much difference):
This is wishful thinking in SoCal unfortunately…show me the real data then perhaps I will bite. Even for those areas, I am sure REO and foreclosures won’t affect the market in terms of pricing in any meaningful way
I was in the downtown DC Swamp doing some home inspections and noticed that there is zero sign of any economic slowdown. The Traffic was horrendous, construction was booming, foot traffic all over the place. Volume of sales of property is on the upswing based on MLS data. Prices are up 6% YOY. Housing affordability getting more difficult for the average buyer. The Case Shiller data may be lagging what is happening on the ground.. With this going on, why is the Fed trying to stimulate the housing sector by lowering interest rates. These people at the Fed are brain dead. That’s the only explanation I can think of.
The Current Housing Bubble is perhaps the biggest con artist act of all time. Housing should have been decimated in the Crisis of 2020 to 2022, but it rose instead, like a magician making an elephant levitate, while the audience gasps in disbelief. The con continues. The powers behind the curtain are pulling many levers in order to prolong this con game. High housing prices benefit local and state governments through higher tax revenue, and the fat cat bankers benefit as well. But unlike a game of musical chairs, where ONE chair is removed, when the jig is up, ALL BUT ONE chair will be removed, creating chaos and mass panic like has never been seen before.
Check out the FRED public construction spending.
Free money folks…is what the school districts, and every public
building in sight preached.
Now they are shocked that homeowners are voting down their
additional spending requests for maintenance.
The Seattle market will set the stage for the rest of all the other housing markets in America. Up in Canada Vancouver, Victoria, Markham, Richmond Hill, Unionville, Stouffville and Richmond Hill set the stage for the entire country of Canada’s housing market.