Biggest IPO Stocks of 2023 Turn Ugly, Some Dropped over 40% from Peak Already

And now the IPO window is shut again. The biggest nine IPOs of 2023.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Today was another rough day for the biggest IPO stocks that went public in 2023. It has been a lousy time to invest in IPOs for a while.

Here are the nine biggest IPOs of 2023 in terms of the valuation at the IPO price. Some are older companies that had gotten bought a few years ago by SoftBank, private equity firms, and hedge funds to be sold to the public at a huge premium. There is J&J’s spinoff. Only a few of them are startups.

  • Four of them had their high on the first or second day of trading and have dropped a bunch since then.
  • One of them topped out at the IPO price itself – the price at which institutions, including your broker, buy the shares before they start trading – and the shares never publicly traded that high.
  • Six of the nine have dropped by over 30% from their intraday high or IPO price.
  • Four of those have plunged by 41% to 48% from their high; investors got shookalacked.

Companies can only be sold to the public at these sky-high valuations and then get pumped further when exuberance drives the market. Sobriety kills the IPO market, which happened in 2022, and the IPO window closed as countless stocks that had gone public via classic IPO or via merger with a SPAC collapsed. The IPO window stayed closed through the second half of 2023.

But then the blistering rally this year through July re-opened the IPO window, and a bunch of big IPOs were sent flying out. Since early August, stocks have started to sag again, and the big IPOs that had flown out the window plunged, and now the IPO window is shut again.

The biggest nine IPOs of 2023, reverse chronological order, most recent IPOs first.

They had a valuation of at least $2.5 billion at the IPO price. None of them have made it yet into my pantheon of Imploded Stocks; to get into it, they must drop by over 70% from the high. (All stock data below, except IPO prices, via YCharts.)

And to clarify: These are classic IPOs; they’re not mergers with a SPAC, such as EV maker VinFast, which has collapsed by over 92% from its high on August 25 shortly after going public.

Birkenstock [BIRK], IPO on October 11, at the IPO price of $46, giving it a valuation of $7.5 billion.

  • Today: -5.5% to $39.90
  • From high: -13.3%
  • Date of high: Oct 11, IPO price, never publicly traded at that price.

This 250-year-old German shoemaker had been a family-owned business. In 2021, the family sold most of it to private equity firm L Catterton (backed by one of the richest people in the world, Bernard Arnault). A Birkenstock family member retained a minority stake.

Klaviyo [KVYO], IPO on September 20, at the IPO price of $30, giving it a valuation of $9 billion.

  • Today: -9.5% to $24.93
  • From high: -28.2%
  • Date of high: Sep 20, intraday high first day of trading.

The company provides marketing software and is part-owned by Shopify, which is a the major client.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc) [CART], IPO on September 19, at the IPO price of $30, giving it a valuation of $10 billion.

  • Today: -10.1% to $24.48
  • From high: -43.0%
  • Date of high: Sep 19, intraday high on first day of trading.

The company provides an app and service where gig workers go to the store for you and buy the stuff on your list and deliver it to you. VC-backed, largest shareholders: VC firm Sequoia and hedge fund D1 Capital Partners.

Neumora Therapeutics [NMRA], IPO on September 15, at the IPO price of $17, giving it a valuation of $2.7 billion.

  • Today: -0.3% to $10.60
  • From high: -41.1%
  • Date of high: Sep 15, intraday high on first day of trading.

The largest investors include Amgen, SoftBank, and Arch Venture Partners.

Arm [ARM], IPO on September 14, at the IPO price $51, for a valuation of $54.5 billion. Since Arm is a foreign company, this is not a stock but an American depositary receipt (ADR).

  • Today: -5.2% to $51.58
  • From high: -25.8%
  • Date of high: Sep 15, second day of trading.

Founded in 1990, acquired by SoftBank in 2016 for $32 billion. SoftBank still owns a majority stake; other major shareholders include Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung.

Savers Value Village [SVV], IPO on June 19, at the IPO price of $18, for a valuation of $2.7 billion.

  • Today: -8.3% to $13.79
  • From high: -48.4%
  • Date of high: Aug 24.

Thrift-store chain founded in 1954. In 2019, with the company approaching bankruptcy, its owners, PE firms Leonard Green and TPG (which had bought it in 2012), sold it to PE firms Ares Management and Crescent Capital with a restructuring agreement.

Cava [CAVA], IPO on June 12, at the IPO price of $22, for a valuation of $2.5 billion.

  • Today: +1.4% to $31.53
  • From high: -46.2%
  • Date of high: Aug 2.

US Chain of Mediterranean restaurants, founded in 2010.

Kenvue [KVUE], IPO on May 4, at the IPO price of $22, giving it a valuation of $41 billion.

  • Today: +0.6% to $19.22
  • From high: -31.2%
  • Date of high: May 15.

Johnson & Johnson’s spinoff of its consumer healthcare division (Band-Aid, Tylenol, etc.). J&J had a 9.5% stake after the IPO.

Nextracker [NXT], IPO on February 9, at the IPO price of $24, for a valuation of $3.5 billion.

  • Today: -4.2% to $33.98
  • From high: -25.6%
  • Date of high: Jul 28.

Founded in 2013, provides solar tracking software. PE firm TPG owned a 28% after the IPO.

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  62 comments for “Biggest IPO Stocks of 2023 Turn Ugly, Some Dropped over 40% from Peak Already

  1. mike says:

    what about veralto?

    • Wolf Richter says:

      The way I see it, it wasn’t an IPO sold to the public. It was a spinoff via distribution to existing shareholders, where each existing stockholder got 1 share for each 3 shares of DHR. So that doesn’t really fit into here.

  2. Biker says:

    I don’t know. But somehow it gives me some pleasure looking at these IPO losers 😆

    • Brian says:

      These companies aren’t losers because of this. The companies did great by selling a piece of themselves for a higher-than-market price. It’s they initial buyers of the stock that overpaid. Assuming there was no fraud, this is just smart business marketing.

      If you manage to sell your used car for more than it’s actually worth, you personally come out ahead. Hence: Buyer Beware.

      Of course, there are other reasons why the companies could be losers and there could be fraud.

      Interestingly, nobody complains when the price goes up after an IPO even though the company got screwed by selling itself at a lower-than-market price.

    • RH says:

      Then glance at the CCP stock markets. On fire, not yet really on fire, but options are diminishing. Insurance proceeds might become too desirable soon.

      The CCP’s MSS will give you their personal attention if you short their securities now. Soon, selling any CCP stocks will be fatal if they can get you.

      Go on, invest in CCP companies; do you feel lucky, punk?

    • RH says:

      French investors in the CCP stock markets say they may as well have put their Euros “en feu.” Spanish investors laugh and say …. Something “een fuego.” They still enjoy the CCP markets apparently.

  3. whatever says:

    I would argue calling Kenvue an IPO, and to be fair you do call it a spin out in the text. The main reason was to separate it from the talc lawsuits, and while a favorable time, it and JNJ are suffering more from 5% bond yields – Kenvue yields about 4.5% on its dividend as of today. It won’t ever hit your kathump list, and I’m not losing sleep on my buy and hold at 20 that I’ll let the dividends reinvest for a decade. Will be be interesting to see how it does against my treasuries.

  4. Steve M says:

    I’m sorry, but your list and text contain a discrepancy.
    You write that Nextracker is the only stock trading above its IPO price, yet Cava traded at $31.53 today and its IPO price was $22.
    Maybe its just the vodka in my orange juice. Or in yours.
    I always enjoy reading. Thanks for always providing article worth the effort.

    • Steve M says:

      I realize now that the chart and text are not aligned.
      According to the chart, Cava’s IPO price was about $44.
      So it was definitely your OJ to blame.

    • ru82 says:

      CAVA food is good. It has big growth plans but the run up after the IPO caused it to be way overpriced.

      I am actually looking to buy some CAVA stock now that the stock price dropped.

      • Mo says:


    • Wolf Richter says:

      Thanks. I just now added the IPO prices to all charts so they’re consistent and will make my job easier when I do an update on the stocks sometime in the future.

      I don’t normally put IPO prices into the charts because they’re not prices derived from public trading, they’re prices negotiated behind closed doors. But here it makes sense.

  5. Steve M says:

    I realize now that the chart and text are not aligned.
    According to the chart, Cava’s IPO price was about $44.
    So it was definitely your OJ to blame.

  6. 2banana says:

    I am working in my WeWork office, marketing and tracking my solar business with Klaviyo/Nextracker, looking cool in my Birkenstock shoes, just finished my lunch at Cava and looking foward to my groceries being delivered by Instacart

    All is good.

    • Greg P says:

      Just as long as you don’t own stock in any of them, all is good :)

    • Arizona Slim says:

      Hey, Banana, does your coworking space have 24/7 free beer? The one I used to frequent did.

      It wasn’t a WeWork, but it also went outta business.

    • ru82 says:

      Goldman Sachs says we are in a new bull market since the SP500 and QQQ indexes are now up over 20% from 2022 October lows.

      All is good. The FED apparently has things under control?

      • andy says:

        Nice blow-off top today. New all time high for Microsoft; closing on $3 Trillion. Russel 2000 down for the year. Someone did not get the memo about intricacies of index investing.

        • Einhal says:

          What do you think caused today’s melt up?

        • andy says:

          I feel this is short squeeze. Many went short at recent lows (justifiably so, “by the book”). Close, but no sigar.

        • andy says:

          “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”

          – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

  7. sdb says:

    I know this is a SPAC one but check it out : Nvni Group Limited (NVNI)

    I still cant get what they are .

    The CEO is member of a famous (and rich) local family .

    • Greg P says:

      They buy up SaaS businesses. SaaS (software as a service) is web-based software that is licensed via a subscription model. Anything you can do with traditional software (purchased with a one-time fee and hosted locally on networks/PCs) you can do with SaaS software. The primary advantage is that you offload security/maintenance tasks to the software provider… versus having to provide those services locally to your own network/PC. Think MS Office 360.

      • sdb says:

        Seven cloud services that almost no one has heard of and that in most cases will never be anything more than a micro niche, which is why they are valued at a 60-70 million.
        What is the logic behind going public with this IPO?

      • Victoria says:

        The Con is all your data belongs to them (it’s in the clouds!), and you get fleeced to re-buy the same product every year.

  8. WB says:

    Con men do what they do. Free money just makes the capital mis-allocation and mal-investment worse…

    Same as it ever was. It has been a great party, time to clean up and take a few aspirin.

  9. Brant Lee says:

    SVV, should be LOL. I mean a stock for thrift stores? I have been to both Savers and Value Village. They are busy stores (but kinda smelly) with a really great business plan, donators unload their unwanted items at the side door. Employees bring out the stuff to the shelves, people flock in to buy it. So no cost in inventory for the store. Shrinkage couldn’t hurt the business too badly. But this business on the stock market?

    It just shows all the stock market is good for now is a fast buck if you’re in the right place at the right time, then get out because you know someone will get the shaft with these stocks.

  10. Desert Dweller says:

    I worked in the underwriting group at several small regional B/Ds that did small-cap and midcap new issue equities back in the 80s and 90s. Generally speaking, I would characterize participating in new issue equity securities as speculative trading versus investing.

  11. CCCB says:

    I would think all the readers and commenters here understand that IPO’s are just a way for the initial company creators and their PE or VC or Angel backers to unload stock at many, many multiples of what they invested.

    I don’t know if the numbers still hold true, but years ago I was told by someone on Wall Street that no one (PE, VC etc) will do a deal unless they expect to get a minimum of 7 TIMES their investment back when it’s sold.

    If that, along with Wolf’s charts aren’t enough to keep folks out of the stock market, I don’t know what is.

    These stocks were high, but the gamblers who bought them were really “high” 🤣

  12. Phoenix_Ikki says:

    Why do silly “investors” even buy into IPO hype? Just do bitcoin instead…look it’s heading back to the moon again…chasing $40k again, unlike these hype IPO and meme stock the roller coaster ride on bitcoin is much more thrilling.

    • phleep says:

      A lot of these investors, I heard, were not retail meme types, but instead, this time around, were institutional, and were offered, and bought, big chunks, long pre-IPO. There was a tranch of folks further down the line who saw they weren’t getting their customary pre-IPO slice, and decided not to buy in on IPO day. Buyer’s strike, in reaction to this experiment which I presume was sold to the companies by investment bankers. A bit technical I know, but not to be confused with 2021 meme dynamics. But yes, some folks had their mouths watering and did not get the meal they wanted.

  13. NoBadCake says:

    “Birkenstock…This 250-year-old…family-owned business. In 2021, the family sold most of it to private equity firm”

    Made me think of a story a few years ago about poor Indian(India) farmers selling ancestral land outside a sprawling city for modern comforts and becoming idle, purposeless. Maybe this is different or perhaps it scales.

    • Sean Shasta says:

      @NoBadCake: That happens everywhere…and they call it “development”. Silicon Valley was full of orchards and about 10 years back there were one or two left. Now perhaps there are none.

  14. Cobalt Programmer says:

    1. Engels where is? Missing him a bit not. May be his dyslexia is cured.
    2. Tell me honestly, did any one of you shorted these stocks? I also know lot of them would go badly.
    3. Cava shops are seen in hip swamp neighborhoods.
    4. Instacart has competition from the pick-up and delivery services the stores themselves offer. Instacart has the advantage to add several shops in one list.
    5. Never heard about the others.
    6. Happy vetrans day to all our key board warriors. I wish our lawmakers care about US rather than a country in a desert.
    7. I am not a financial advisor…Bro, just shut up then.

    • 728huey says:

      Instacart not only has competition from the local delivery services but from Shipt, Doordash, Uber Eats and the other food delivery services that are expanding into grocery delivery. Walmart uses Doordash for their store deliveries.

  15. Nick Kelly says:

    Solar tracking software?

  16. sdb says:

    Did you guys ever check Birkenstock prices ?

    I mean the sandal not the stock .

  17. Anthony says:

    I guess people who short could have made a bundle

  18. Harvey Mushman says:

    I will be surprised if ARM drops much from where it is right now. The ARM core is used in many microcontrollers and FPGAs. I’ve been working with ARM microcontrollers since 2007. In my opinion, the 32-bit ARM core is to the 2000s, 2010s, 2020s, what the 8-bit Intel 8051 core was to the 1980s and 1990s.

    Just my $0.02

  19. SoCalBeachDude says:

    MW: Dow up nearly 400 points as U.S. stocks bounce back from inflation fears

  20. Einhal says:

    So the S&P is now up 7% in the past two weeks based on absolutely nothing. This market is uninvestible. How can anyone make any investing judgment based on this?

    • Jim Cramer Fan says:

      Much to the consternation of permabears, the current economic data points to a soft landing. Inflation is dropping like a rock and the consumers’ balance sheets remain strong. Interest rates are in a good place right now. There is some risk of over-tightening, but the Fed is playing it safe (J-Pow learned his lesson in 2018). We’ll probably get a few cuts next year, which should send stocks soaring.

      Fortunately, the average Joe doesn’t need to think much to gain from this. Just throw your paycheck into an S&P500 index fund and watch your money grow. It’s not that hard.

      • Einhal says:

        Troll troll troll your boat, gently down the stream.

      • W Wang says:

        Your logic is arguable, but not even need to start from here. Before all of this you at least have to base on the assumption that, current position in stock market is “reasonable”. But the position was on previous hype that at this time on this year interest rate should be at 3% and FED has pivoted. And now the investors “Pretend” to “Forget” this and the MM make them attempt to pretend all is reasonable so far than start from a solid ground up. Ridiculous?

      • Wolf Richter says:

        All major indices are down from their highs a couple of years ago. All of them.

        • Einhal says:

          Sure, but they’re still up 35% from their pre-pandemic high, which was already feeling bubbly.

          Considering the risk free rate is now 5.5%, something is very off.

    • Z33 says:

      Rich companies get richer so not unexpected the big ones making lots of money still and those outside the 500 not as much. Still a lot of liquidity out there and stocks won’t go down hard until a liquidity crunch. Right now lots of people employed, getting pay raises, auto-investing into S&P500 in their 401ks (isn’t there some $1k or something govt gives to small businesses for each employee for 401k now?). Congress still running massive budget deficits, too. Rates don’t matter as much when people and companies have the cash and don’t need to rely on borrowing as much.

  21. Robert says:

    Got a new one to add to the list, Wonder- the food delivery start up by billionaire Marc Lore.

  22. BarronVonPickehaus says:

    Wow, I’m glad I got out of my Trump SPAC when I broke even.

  23. Sporkfed says:

    Monody’s downgrades US debt. Monday could be fun.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      😬 NO, Moody’s did NOT downgrade the US debt. It lowered its OUTLOOK on the debt from “stable” to “negative,” meaning that it MIGHT someday downgrade the US debt.

      So now it still rates the US debt triple-A but with “negative” outlook.

      Moody’s chickened out!

      • Marcel says:

        The Magnificent 7 trade like a bond and the Treasuries now trade like a sh!tcoin. The credit rating of these corporations are better than Uncle Sam’s, the balance sheet is much better, governance is infinitely better, and they have international diversification. That is why the market is taking refuge in 7 equities, instead of UST. Eventually they gonna find out that uncle Sam has a money printer when everyone else is squeezed of $$$.

  24. slickfish says:

    I haven’t seen anything about VACASA on here, but I recently noticed that they did a reverse stock split. Might make a good analysis of the short term rental market. Not sure they’ve made the list yet officially.

  25. Thomas Curtis says:

    Many people like to gamble. Stocks and bonds are great for that but of course gambling generally doesn’t end well.

    Bulls make money, bears make money, and PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED eventually.

    I invest in big old companies that have big moats around them and have a history of paying big dividends which are most years tax free for me.

    I think equity markets are climbing a wall of worry and I like getting paid with dividends while they do it.

Comments are closed.