EVs now start at $27,000, about $20,000 below the average new-vehicle transaction price. That’s a good thing all around. Except for stock prices.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Ford announced today that it cut the MSRP of its 2023-model-year Mustang Mach-E, depending on model, by a range from $600 to $5,900, and its extended-battery option by $1,600. This brings the low end of the Mach-E to $45,995, which is just below the average transaction price for all new vehicles of $46,400.
Ford is not cutting prices, and thereby its profit margins, out of the goodness of its heart, but because it’s forced to by competition – and it’s lagging behind. Ford admitted as much: It said the price cuts are designed to keep the Mach-E “competitive in the marketplace.” It said, “We are not going to cede ground to anyone.” The Mach-E was the third-best-selling EV in the US in 2022, after Tesla’s Model Y, and Tesla’s Model 3.
Tesla has gone on a big round of price cuts in January in the US, including for its Model Y, a crossover SUV that competes directly with the Mach-E. Chevrolet cut the prices of its mass-produced EVs, the BOLT and the BOLT EUV. Kia and Hyundai also cut prices on their electric crossover models. Nissan cut the price of its EV.
There are electric crossover SUVs on the market in the US that are priced lower than either Ford’s or Tesla’s lowered prices, including models by Kia, Hyundai, and Volkswagen. After the price cuts, the MSRPs of the base models of the Nissan Leaf and the Chevrolet Bolt are in the $27,000 range; they’re about $20,000 below the average transaction price of new vehicles.
So the heat is on. These price cuts are the natural evolution of a relatively new industry (EVs) with very low barriers to entry and lots of new entrants that attracted huge amounts of investor money.
Customers who are still waiting for the Mustang Mach-E that they ordered will “automatically” get the lowered price, Ford said. And Ford “will reach out directly” to customers who bought after January 1 and already took delivery. Customers that took delivery before January 1 are out of luck.
Ford, in its press release today, said that it is ramping up production of the Mach-E now that its EV supply chains are “coming online,” in order “to help reduce customer wait times and to take advantage of streamlined costs.”
Supply chains in the automotive industry are notoriously complex, and for large-scale production take a long time to build. EVs require different supply chains, including for the electric drive components, and critically the batteries and materials. Tesla is years ahead in building its supply chains.
Ford has become infamous for jacking up the price of its electric F-150 Lightning three times in a row, most recently in December, by a combined $16,000. But for now, it faces little competition in pickups. Tesla still doesn’t have a pickup truck for sale, despite having promised it since 2019, and the only other competitor with pickups is Rivian, a startup automaker.
Tesla has had the auto industry’s highest profit margins – the difference between the sales price and the cost of manufacturing the vehicle. The high-margin producer can cut prices more than lower-margin competitors can, and still make money, and it can thereby get aggressive in protecting its market share, which has come under pressure from other EV makers.
Ford said, “The updated pricing is part of Ford’s plan to keep the SUV competitive in a rapidly changing market, while strengthening Ford’s position as the No. 2 U.S. EV manufacturer as it continues to scale that part of the business.”
China is the most vibrant, largest, and competitive EV market in the world, with hundreds of EV makers. Tesla’s China-made vehicles are among the dominant models. In January, Tesla cut prices in China for the second time in three months in order to remain competitive.
The EV dynamics are shaking up the self-satisfied legacy-automakers in the US and their oligopolistic behavior. And they’re now shaking up automakers in Japan.
Toyota, the largest automaker in the world, has completely missed the battery EV dynamics, dabbling instead in hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. It built some EVs. But they’re based on models designed for internal combustion engines and retrofitted with electric power trains, which is expensive and not ideal for many reasons. And so Toyota has been left hopelessly behind. Push came to shove last week, “literally,” so to speak, when CEO Aiko Toyoda was replaced as CEO.
But now, Toyota is years behind. Other automakers have made similar missteps in getting started with EVs, including BMW, whose price sports sedans are in the bull’s eye of Tesla, and whose CEO was replaced in 2019 for falling behind competitors in the EV space.
For the auto industry overall, EVs are the only area where sales are growing in leaps and bounds. Sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines have been sagging.
The legacy auto industry needed to be shaken up. And to Musk’s credit, he shook them up. But now they’re waking up, and they’re giants, and they got religion as their lunch is being eaten. In Ford’s case, it was the threat of the Tesla’s Cybertruck that did it. If Ford loses its pickup sales, it’s done as an automaker.
The irony is that the Ford F-150 Lightning is out there now, with real people driving them, while the Cybertruck still doesn’t exist, and may not enter mass production until 2024, if ever.
The EV startups in the US – despite consuming many billions of dollars of investment – still haven’t made much inroads in mass-producing EVs. Even Rivian, the most successful of the startups, is still only cranking out relatively small numbers.
But Rivian does have a pickup. And Tesla doesn’t. And GM doesn’t either and is instead hobbling from vacuous announcement to vacuous announcement. Toyota isn’t even thinking about thinking about making an electric pickup. Stellantis is finally thinking about it and unveiled earlier in January an electric Ram model that is supposed to go into production in 2024 maybe. In the US, ICE pickups have for years been huge sellers and money-makers with massive profit margins. So that should be interesting.
The large-scale arrival of EVs shaking up the self-satisfied oligopolistic legacy-automakers is a great thing for the US economy. The hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested in the US in EV production is a great thing. For consumers, more choices, more competition, and price cuts are a great thing.
But it’s not a great thing for the stocks of the current or future EV makers, which are getting hammered today at the moment, including Ford (-2.6%), Tesla (-4.8%), GM (-3.6%), Stellantis (-2.6%), and Rivian (-8.2%). The post-SPAC stocks of EV makers that are mass-producing only losses instead of EVs have already gotten annihilated.
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Rivian is not an F-150 competitor, too small and dopey looking anyway. Cybertruck looks too goofy to catch on. Sure, the wait list is a mile long, but as soon as there’s one or two in the neighborhood, no one is is going to want to be the copycat of such a novelty vehicle. Too eccentric.
I’ve seen several of the Rivian pickups. I like their looks. Yes, they appear a little smaller than the current versions of the F-150, maybe about the same size as prior versions of the F-150, just from looking at it. But it could be just optics.
Rivian trucks are 4×4, crew cab (4-door) pickups. Depending on the model: 600 hp and 600 ft lbs of torque or 800 hp and 900 ft lbs of toque. The first is about even with Ford’s F-150 Lightning; and latter far outpowers the Lightning and anything else that Ford has, including turbo diesels, both in hp and torque, just blows them away.
That said, personally, I’d never buy a vehicle from a startup.
Wolf, why no Natty vehicles? Domestic production good for what 75 years while we wait for the Battery Fairy? ICE can probably be changed for bupkus compared to enriching the PRC. Asking for a friend…
CNG vehicles have been around for many years. Even Ford offered an F-150 CNG version. But not enough people bought them, and so Ford stopped making them. All this is demand based. I don’t know why CNG vehicles never caught on in the US.
Now there are trucks running on LNG, mostly for drayage. Works well for drayage trucks. But not a great application for consumers.
No one is “waiting for the battery Fairy Tail” except you. You just missed the train and didn’t notice.
The practicality of CNG varies as size of vehicle. In a taxi the cylinder fills the trunk. Here on Van Isle there are CNG buses and ferries, but like most places no cars.
Oligopoly refers to a limited number of participants in a market, not the number of domestic companies. Ford went on record six months ago with a statement by a top executive that they were losing money on the Mach-E’s .
Yes, mass production isn’t economical in small numbers, LOL. Ford is ramping up production. It needs to reach a certain scale before it can make money on each vehicle. It took Mach-E production from nothing to 70,000 in two years – it just got to a capacity of 70,000, which is nothing for a global automaker. It will get it to 130,000 by the end of this year. That is still low volume for a company like Ford.
Tesla has the fattest profit margins in the auto industry. It makes large amounts of money on each vehicle because EVs are inherently cheaper to mass-produce because they’re far simpler than ICE vehicles. But it produces are large volume of EVs and has its supply chain under control – remember that Tesla too was losing a lot of money while ramping up production.
Everyone else is just trying to catch up. And trying to catch up is expensive. That’s what you get for giving your competitor a decade head start.
“I’ve seen several of the Rivian pickups. I like their looks.”
Yes, well you also swim in the bay. Your judgment is questionable, at best!
I believe Rivian is a real threat in this arena. I think their truck is more fitting for what most truck drivers actually use their vehicles for (not towing, though it can tow far more than the lightning).
I don’t wish anything against the big automakers, but some of these new EV startups pose a real threat – especially if their quality and reliability proves to be on par with the big boys.
If the startup goes bust, what are the chances your EV becomes a brick?
Not to mention spare parts even with an ongoing concern. F-150 quarter panel is prolly about the same EV or ICE? Wheels, windshield, brake pads same, no?
I had the chance to drive a Rivian, a friend writes for an auto magazine and had one for a review last year. I got a really good tour of the vehicle. Very impressive in build quality, drivability, cool features and power overall. If you drive it like a car it is great, but if you tow heavy it can’t compete with a gas or diesel truck as far a range goes.
Also long-term durability towing heavy is just not there when compared to a 3/4 or 1 ton ICE truck. When it is, things will certainly change, especially if they can build these EV trucks for less than 100K.
The real issue for Tesla is China. The market share of Tesla is around 10% of the BEV market now and it is facing even stiffer competition. BYD sold more total new energy vehicles (BEV and PHEV) than Tesla (1.8 million for BYD). The chairman of BYD stated a goal of 4 million vehicles in 2023 and in order to do that they will need to increase their market share in China and move rapidly into Europe.
Tesla is losing market share and even lower sales in China (down 40% year over year in December). Tesla ships the cars it cant sell in China to Europe, but with a new European plant, they are going to have a harder time selling all their production in those two markets. So the core issue at Tesla is not even sales in North America, it is China and Europe where they will be very weak.
The increase in the stock price of Tesla after earnings is just wrong. Any time a company is forced to cut prices and margins to increase demand to fill their production it is an issue. Tesla’s stock price assumes massive forward growth, so if competition is already eating into the future demand for Tesla – they are in trouble.
Although Tesla is able to cut prices more than some competitors and still make a profit, many of those other competitors might be willing to lose money in order to establish their toehold in the BEV market. Overall, what this all means is that the temporary bubble of higher car prices is going to pop and automaker profits will plummet, especially at Tesla.
New tech, changes to design and suppliers, production process. Going to be seeing a lot of what you point out in this article.
Glad we have Wolf an experienced pro with years of vehicle experience.
I think Toyota was simply cautious, when it comes to EV market (or maybe Too cautious – time will tell). They have been building Hybrids for a very long time and lets not forget Toyota was involved in partnership with Tesla at the very beginning of its existence (Fremont is ex GM/Toyota plant), so its not like they have no idea how to build an electric car.
The biggest issue car manufacturers have to face is lack of charging stations. Something that Tesla has a huge head start and quite frankly appeals to buyers. Rather surprisingly – nobody talks about that issue too much. Many claim that Toyota was betting on Hydrogen Fuel cells (Toyota Mirai), which I personally believe is a better option for clean vehicles. The biggest issue, which again is not being talked about – lack of stations, where one can actually fuel up the car.
There are far more charging stations in California (80,000+ Level 2 and DC Fast) than gas stations. That’s in addition to many people being able to charge their EVs at home, but they cannot fill up their vehicles with regular unleaded at home.
California data is here:
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/electric-vehicle
Nationwide data is here, including the “fuel corridors” (highways):
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC
For anybody in California. Nice place, altered by politics. I drove an ICE Suburban 1300 miles non-stop except for fuel and short breaks in 27 hours hauling a dual axle trailer with an 800 pound Triumph 1700cc. Impossible in my lifetime to see a battery powered vehicle do the same.
“I drove an ICE Suburban 1300 miles non-stop except for fuel and short breaks in 27 hours…”
Tbh, only a reckless idiot drives 1,300 miles, 27 hours, with only “short breaks.” You can kill someone doing that. It’s illegal for commercial truckers for that reason. I cannot believe there is actually someone that uses this example to pooh-pooh what exactly? EV articles bring out the worst comments.
Chase Metz and Wolf,
On the numerous occasions when I rode my motorcycle round trip from Philly to San Francisco and back (as I did to attend your meet and greet in the China Basin section of S. F. years ago), I used to get to Salina, UT where U. S. 50 (the loneliest highway in the world) merges with I-70 heading east to Denver and beyond.
I would stay overnight in Salina and continue riding east the next morning. I used to ride for up to 40 hours straight getting to Ohio before I stopped again. On one of those trips, I met another rider with Pennsylvania plates just east of Denver who was heading to Pittsburgh. He and I rode straight through to Zanesville Ohio where I stopped for the night and he continued on to Pittsburgh. Fun times.
Motorcycle Guy,
This is like saying, I used to drive home after having 8 drinks, and it worked fine. From what you say, you used to be a reckless moron. If you kill yourself, fine. If you kill a family of four, you’re murder, with this attitude. Why do you brag about this here?
Tens of thousands of people get killed every year because drivers do stupid stuff like this. No excuses.
‘Person needs to know their limits” applies here Wolf.
We did long long stretches on duty driving/steering a destroyer through a hurricane coming back across the north Pacific, some on duty 72 hours with hardly a break.
That translated into many non-stop drives across and up and down USA for years, stopping for fuel, coffee, and bio breaks only— MANY decades ago when we also worked non-stop from 5pm Friday to 9am Monday to completely rehab, remodel, and update retail spaces whose owners hated to close at all… (Best money ever!)
”Different strokes for different folks.”
“Person needs to know their limits” applies here”
Good lordy. Tens of thousands of people get killed in the US because drivers do stupid things such as driving under the influence, driving while tired, etc., lots of other stupid things. You’re promoting that it’s OK for a driver to kill a family of four because “he knew his limits.” I have BS overload. This is reckless dangerous stuff you’re saying, yeah, I’m a he-man, I know my limits, and BAM, four people killed.
Unless you have terminal cancer and will be dying in a few years, you’ll see it happen in your lifetime. Tesla is promising a full class 8 truck in a year or two. That might be vaporware, but just that announcement has caused traditional truck makers to launch electric programs so they’re not left behind.
Rivians biggest investor is Amazon and they’re looking for last mile local delivery trucks, which are perfect for electric (can be charged every night at the local warehouse).
What’s funny is that as time goes by, the examples ICE advocates use to “prove” that electric vehicles aren’t viable get narrower and more esoteric.
When Tesla first launched, people said “but what about winter driving!” Until Tesla became the best selling car in Norway and no one had problems in literally Arctic conditions. Then it was “but what about road trips!” Until Tesla built out its charging network.
Now you guys are left with “but what if I tow X tons Y miles in Z hours” with increasingly more ludicrous values for those parameters. Drop any one of them and electric vehicles can already do it.
Will there always be a need for ICE vehicles? Sure. Just like we still use horses for some means of transportation (ranches, mounted police, and tourist rides in central park). But right now, today, electric vehicles can cover probably 75% of private transportation needs, and the percentage is increasing. And in a few years, they’ll be able to cover a large part of the commercial market, including longhaul road transportation.
At that point arguments for ICE vehicles never being replaceable will be equivalent to current horse and buggy operators (still around here and there)
Apples and oranges comparison when most of those chargers are level 2 and can provide “14 to 35 miles of range per hour of charging”.
I’m not saying there are or are not enough chargers, simply pointing out that your figures don’t really prove anything in this case.
You know what Ford can do that Tesla can’t?
Build good ICE vehicles.
Buy they fooked that up too.
Sales of Ford’s ICE vehicles have PLUNGED by 30% since 2015. Why? Because YOU aren’t buying enough of them, LOL.
In 2015, Ford sold zero EVs. In 2022, it sold 64,000 EVs. And that really just started in 2021. That’s infinite growth, while ICE vehicle sales plunged by 30% since 2015. The boom in EV sales reduced the plunge in overall sales to 28%.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/08/wild-ride-of-us-auto-sales-in-2022-below-1977-charts-for-gm-toyota-ford-stellantis-hyundai-kia-honda-and-nissan-oh-dear/
Because there aren’t any to buy. Mustang is only car in their lineup.
RE: The Ford 30% sales plunge: Is that total sales or retail only? The reason I ask is that the DRAC’s/fleet companies stopped buying for awhile and none of the manufacturers had any incentive to feed them – so is that where the bulk of the decline came from or???
Ford also shot most of their sedans in the head during that period… which may (or may not) have had an influence as well. They basically handed that business of to the imports.
Regarding the comment of not feeding the oligarchs: Watched a video this weekend of someone who studied the costs of charging EV’s “in the wild”. That would include most cliff dwellers who can’t install their own service. He reported that his average “fill up” is about $50 per occurrence.
Total sales (deliveries), retail and fleet.
I will never understand why Ford killed most of its sedans. The Fusion Hybrid is a good vehicle – from personal experience. Ford sold a lot of Fusions. The Fusion needed an update and was supposed to get one, and then Ford goes out and shoots it in the head, as you said so elegantly. These decisions will go down in auto history as some of the dumbest ever. Wall Street wins again. And yes, that is in part responsible for the decline in sales, which should have been obvious to those geniuses back when they made the decision.
Don’t tell me you’re getting your auto industry insights (cost of charging EVs) from watching someone on YouTube, LOL. The amount of EV BS on YouTube is just ridiculous.
It depends heavily on the location, and which pricing plan you pick from the company operating the charger.
I took a Kia Niro EV to an EVgo Level 3 charger in the Boston area. 25% SoC at the start, took it up to 80% in an hour for about $20. Due to the fact that EVgo charges per minute without any regard for charging rate, getting it from 80% to 100% would have taken another hour and cost another $20.
Same charge on a Level 2 charger would take about 9 hours and cost slightly under $20.
$40 for 250 miles of range is expensive….definitely better off charging at home if you can.
Nope. Not youtube…. accessed through other auto industry related publication’s online services. However, it may have linked to it’s youtube upload.
It’s not an either/or decision for Ford.
It should be a let’s do both decision.
Like when peace breaks out, oil plunges and suddenly gas is cheap….again, which has happened dozen of times over the last 50 years.
And then, presto, Ford has the capacity and capacity to take advantage of that market….kinda like Toyota and definitely not like Tesla.
Now, they have the worst of both worlds.
Oh well, car company bailouts will rise again.
Is going to be very interesting in the next 10 years. Supply chains and supply of battery materials will be big challenge for the late-comers. The cart is before the horse for government dreams at this point.
Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.
It’s already unfolding as we speak, LOL.
98% of the readers here live in houses either detached or town with garage and easy plug-in access. What about the MILLIONS AND MILLIONS who don’t?
“What about the MILLIONS AND MILLIONS who don’t?”
Large condo and apartment buildings are being equipped and have already been equipped with charging stations for their residents.
There are 80,000 charging stations in California for the rest. They’re everywhere.
As I explained above:
There are far more charging stations in California (80,000+ Level 2 and DC Fast) than gas stations. That’s in addition to many people being able to charge their EVs at home, but they cannot fill up their vehicles with regular unleaded at home.
California data is here:
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/electric-vehicle
Nationwide data is here, including the “fuel corridors” (highways):
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC
CM – don’t know for sure, but reckon i’m in your 2pct (this property off-grid since the ’70’s with solar upgrades since, looking to add wind augmentation soon). Currently, wife has a Toyota Venza hybrid acquired before the last fuel runup. Likes it a lot @40mpg, hybrid well-suited to our hilly, deep-rural area…
may we all find a better day
Wolf, Wouldn’t the comparison be between ”charging stations” and gas Pumps rather than gas stations?
Around here average # of pumps per station likely at least 8, with some now having 20.
Just checked the national charging station link for local, and found far fewer,,, but maybe that will change with the new Tesla facility now under construction nearby.
The charging station down the street has four chargers for four vehicles simultaneously. That’s a small one in a corner of a Walgreen’s parking lot. Some charging stations have 20 chargers. Have you never ever looked at a charging station?
Nice try. My ex-wife lives in the same condo complex as I do. When she got a Tesla she had a charger put in. No problem. And we don’t live in California.
I think that both Tesla and Toyota would benefit by merging together.
You can’t find a gas station on I81 PA let alone a charger, dream on. Good grief.
Gas prices are too high and the oil oligarchs in repressive states want oil to remain at US$100 a barrel when Americans can’t even afford groceries.
Oil prices are supposed to be lower, but since EVs use little to no gas, I guess that’s one way to get consumers to buy vehicles as the gas expense and fattening the pockets of the OPEC oligarchs are a disincentive to buy gas-powered vehicles.
Personally, I don’t want to spend money continually to make an oil tyrant richer abroad. Thus, I too am buying an electric vehicle in the coming months.
If you are going to recharge this EV from a solar PV panel on your own rooftop, preferably with a home battery as well – you will have achieved your objective.
If you are going to recharge this EV from electricity purchased through the grid, it is likely that most of that electricity is generated from fossil fuels – and you will not have achieved your objective.
My province of residence uses mainly nuclear and hydro-electric. Barely any fossil fuels.
The more reasons for the purchase of an EV vehicle.
OPEC and the oil dictators aren’t getting a penny more from me!
Though Canada is an oil producer, most of the oil is sent to the States. We import oil for consumption from despotic regimes.
As someone who owns a Tesla, I would NEVER own a BEV unless I could charge at home. It would be far too inconvenient to go to charging stations on a regular basis.
I went on a trip to Utah in the Tesla and can tell you that the infrastructure for fast charging in rural America is pathetic. Yes, you can sit for 3 hours to get a 1/3rd of your range charge on many of the networks like EVGo, but Superchargers are the ONLY chargers operating at a speed that is realistic. And even those are a real pain.
As a renter who moved recently, I can tell you that trying to get a fast charger in an apartment complex prohibits you from moving many places, it becomes almost impossible, and if you rent a home you have to pay more than a thousand to get a 240 volt outlet in your garage, and some panels wont even take the voltage. The whole process is a complete mess and will prohibit BEV adoption rates for years to come.
Sorry, Wolf, but those 80,000 chargers are mostly slower than charging at home on a 240 volt outlet and it makes travel away from home a real pain. My bet is that few people buy an EV unless they can install a 230/240 volt outlet in their garage.
I never understood Toyota’s fascination with hydrogen. It takes much more energy to produce, compress, and distribute than you can ever hope to get out of it with a fuel cell.
In August 2022 didn’t Ford raise the price of the E mustang, along with the other EV makers when the Inflation Reduction Act was passed? I seem to remember it went up about 7500.
Ford did, it tried to make the price increases stick, but they didn’t stick. Tesla also raised prices in 2022 that didn’t stick.
Just curious!!! I live at Latitude 53.5 degrees North, NNE of San Francisco, and there is a Tesla dealership here with 80 to 90 cars in the lot. Amazing that there are no dealerships south of the 49th!!
Our city Parks Department bought a tiny electric Ford van a few years ago, and I asked them about the range. It is only driven in the city. Their reply was that they got 135 km [84 miles] in the warmer 7 months, and 75 km [46 miles] in the colder 5 months.
I read somewhere that an urban door-to-door delivery van drives on average 75 miles per day. So for urban delivery vehicles you want the minimum size battery that will get you comfortably through one shift. Then the vehicle goes back to the depot to get charged.
TSLA’s models will soon be considered tired and outdated with all the new eye-catching designs from competitors. Say bye-bye-margins when tsla needs radical new designs as sales sag!
Don’t think it is going to get any more radical than the Cybertruck. MadMax meets Back To The Future. If I could afford one, I would drive it for the trollz.
More sales of EVs means more sales and profits for EV specific component makers. I have a few and they been running for 2 years and still have lots of juice in the batteries!!!
I love competition. Makes everything better and cheaper.
Competition? A few questions:
1. What is your definition of “competition”?
2. If your definition is not found in a dictionary, what is a dictionary definition of “competition” that you might agree with?
Since every word was originally coined by someone or borrowed from another language, its derivation /original meaning often gives helpful insight., especially when its coined meaning has later been heavily altered.
3. So then, what was the original meaning of “competition” [in other words, if it came from Latin or Greek, what did those latin or Greek words mean?]
Please elaborate because making everything better and cheaper would be most helpful.
Such a weird comment, what do you THINK they meant?
I’ll have what he’s having.
Anyone paying attention knows that Toyota has been asleep at the wheel. Hydrogen would have taken off by now it were viable.
The focus on high profit large vehicles like pickup trucks may also bite these manufacturers in the butt. I work in the trades. I know a ton of people that drive pickup trucks for work and also drive them for their personal vehicles. This segment of the market are going to be the last EV adopters and not until they can tow their fifth wheel from Boston to Alaska with the same amount of down time as an ICE. Costs are not the issue with these people right now. Not to mention the amount of raw materials going into these batteries.
Can we please bring back station wagons now that they’re not penalized by CAFE formulas? And Minivans and other “ugly” vehicles that are not as aerodynamic? We does everything in this field have to be an oversized SUV, a pickup or a hatchback???
Digger Dave,
“Can we please bring back station wagons now that they’re not penalized by CAFE formulas? And Minivans and other “ugly” vehicles that are not as aerodynamic?”
I agree with you. I used to live in my mini van (a Kia Sedona and then a Chrysler Town and Country) until I bought a Nissan NV 2500 HD step truck. I plan on doing the same thing when I come back to the USA for a visit….. occasionally.
Woohoo, race to the bottom…too bad this won’t happen to other desirable cars I would rather own like RS3, RS5, M3 or M4…
The Rivian is an 8,000 lb lithium sled. Who needs those or the Ford Lightning? They are boutique show off vehicles for windshield cowboys. Your local tradesman or gardener can’t afford them much less want them. Nothing about it is cheap or environmentally sound. Toyota may have the last laugh. Plug in hybrids are much more versatile and cost effective, environmentally favorable. California is on the road to hell with it’s all electric fantasy with its strained Grid and electric rates by far the highest in the nation. How are the millions of apartment and Condo dwellers supposed to charge these things?
1. The 835 hp monster Rivian has a curb weight of 7,136 pounds. Compare that to any other 4×4 crew-cab truck: The much less powerful Ford F-250 turbo diesel 4×4 Crew Cab has a curb weight of 7,500 pounds. You’ve got to understand that powerful equipment is heavy, and that turbo diesels with the same power and torque are heavier than EVs. You cannot compare an 835 hp truck to a wheelbarrow.
2. You have clearly no idea who in America is buying all these millions of expensive new trucks every year. No, it’s not who you think. It’s people who love trucks, and who don’t need trucks, and who buy them because they love them. Trucks have become a status symbol. If you don’t understand that, you don’t understand America.
3. Sure, some people buy work trucks. But nicely decked-out trucks are a particular status symbol among the construction folks and ranchers and others that actually use their trucks for work, or at least to get to work in their trucks, or that use them for towing. Check out a 4×4 crew cab turbo diesel dually F-350, at $110k-plus. That’s a work truck.
I’m a long time Ford Truck enthusiast. From a 1958 F100 thru numerous F150 & F250’s. A couple Tacoma’s too. I wish for a no frills all electric Maverick or Tacoma like the 1998 Ford Ranger electric truck. I agree on CNG vehicles. The CNG Honda Civic didn’t catch on either. But Natural Gas went from our green savior to now the evil poison even though it is main baseload source of Grid power in CA.
Tragic stuff. It’s like the blue collar version of stolen valor or something, or like driving around with a surfboard strapped to your roof while living in central Ohio.
I still remember when all the would-be Sgt Rock’s would park their shiny cheddar-yellow Hummers right in the middle of their front yards as the ultimate status symbol…Operation: Suburban Lawn.
Will Last to Panic hit the lights on the way out please?
TIA,
Elon.
Wolf said, “The large-scale arrival of EVs shaking up the self-satisfied oligopolistic legacy-automakers is a great thing for the US economy. The hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested in the US in EV production is a great thing. For consumers, more choices, more competition, and price cuts are a great thing.”
👍👍👍 YESS!
Re: And so Toyota has been left hopelessly behind. Push came to shove last week, “literally,” so to speak, when CEO Aiko Toyoda was replaced as CEO.
That’s too bad, IMHO, I thought the old boy was on the right path, oh well.
Just a few months ago he said,
“Toyoda, who described Toyota as a large department store, said the company’s goal “remains the same, pleasing the widest possible range of customers with the widest possible range of powertrains.” Those powertrains will include hybrids and plug-in hybrids like the Prius, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles like the Mirai and 15 all-electric battery models by 2025.”
Additional (smart) thoughts on Toyota:
Just like the fully autonomous cars that we are all supposed to be driving by now, EVs are just going to take longer to become mainstream than media would like us to believe,” Toyoda said in a recording of the remarks to dealers shown to reporters. “In the meantime, you have many options for customers.”
Toyoda also believes there will be “tremendous shortages” of lithium and battery grade nickel in the next five to 10 years, leading to production and supply chain problems.
He was axed for every good reasons, obviously, but years too late, as you point out.
When I saw my first E-stang, I was wondering why it got hit with the ugly stick, but the Mach-E bears little resemblance to any era Mustang, kinda looks like a Pinto that put on a lot of weight.
No.
When the susidies run out and the house of cards becomes unsustainable that supposed competition will evaporate.
With even moar government intervention EV makers will be permitted to price fix to break even and sell ICE vehicles to make a profit.
What a future.
The subsidies had already run out, and the boom continued. Tesla’s subsidies ran out years ago. And look how it did.
I will believe that Ford can ramp up when they do so. They still cannot produce Broncos, Mavericks, and Lightning.
So yes, the era of Tesla car flippers selling for more than they bought is over. Competition is a good thing.
Toyota mostly bet on hydrogen and so far that bet hasn’t paid off.
I agree that hybrids and plug in hybrids are a good option. Toyota has some good options here but from what I have read they aren’t ramping up production. Instead they appear to be doubling down on ICE.
Subaru is in the same position as Toyota. I like my Subaru Outback but my next vehicle will be an EV and neither Toyota or Subaru have anything much to offer.
And so we wait. I’ve been burned many times buying version 1.0 of a car model. With EV I’m waiting for versions 4 or 5, and the only brands are Toyota, Honda or BMW.
I think there’s also another dynamic to consider…
There are people, like me, that no matter what the domestic legacy auto makers make, simply don’t trust their quality when it is anything other than a truck- and even then it is model specific. Everyone has some horror story of a dog of a sedan they owned at one point from Ford, GM, etc.
I’m not anti-battery at all. I just can’t trust Ford, GM, Dodge et. all to build a quality one (looking at you, 1988 Mustang LX).
I’m glad Tesla is getting it done, even if Elon is a bit kooky. American made, nice looking cars. Read a story out of California a year back about a taxi-type service that has a fleet of Tesla’s that a couple hit a million mile mark (obviously, had to replace some parts along the way). But until I can mortgage a Tesla or the legacy makers go a couple decades of quality… I’m sticking to the foreign made gas burners as long as I can because they run.
Wolf, great article, can’t believe folks are having so much trouble understanding that this transition is already a fait accompli. EVs are 4-6 times as efficient AND they accelerate faster with more power. All they have against them is slower to recharge and higher upfront costs, both of which are slowly going away. One quibble – GM lowered the cost on the Bolt before Tesla did and I think should get more props for starting this new era of affordable EVs. Tesla was reacting to lower cost Chinese made EVs and the Bolt.
Wolf, it’s not just competition. Automakers are also cutting prices to get under the limits for tax rebates on EV purchases. It seems like that has started a small chain-reaction of price cuts.
Automakers that are already getting the rebates are cutting prices.
Toyota is doing fine for now. Can’t build enough Rav4s, Tundras, Highlanders, Siennas, 4Runners, Priuses to meet demand. The waitlist for the Rav4 Prime and Sienna in my neck of the woods is 3+ years. From a financial perspective, replacing ICEs with EVs are getting hard to justify with these interest rates unless the residual values hold up much better than ICEs or oil goes stratospheric and electricity doesn’t. I considered swapping my Toyota-built car for a Model Y with the recent price cut.
But the difference of $30k @ 5% is as much as the projected annual gas savings.
Reading the comments above, it’s clear that EVs have become another line of division in the culture wars. My advice. Embrace the future or get left behind.
Car manufacturers resemble home builders in the way they have pushed us all into way more vehicle/home than we want or need! Both markets are screaming for a utilitarian basic model / Entry level home. If Chevrolet were to produce a sport coupe / sedan with just basic equipment ( yes roll down windows) but designed to be an aftermarket paradise like a striped Subaru STI, it would be hard to resist. Most economy boxes have zero style and are fairly loaded down with equipment. This market is growing. Anyone who owns an older car and has tried to get the thing fixed lately will tell you the repair shops are so expensive that a lot of repairs just far exceed the value of the vehicle. Not to long ago keeping an older vehicle going was thrifty. Here in Nevada there was an option for a vehicle that would not smog when tested. You could obtain a ” classic car plate”. this plate did not need the yearly smog but the draw back was a 5000mi per year limit. This gave a young person or family a shot at affordability if there car just couldn’t pass smog but now Nevada DMV “Fixed It” so you can only register this type of plate if you carry ” classic Vehicle Insurance” effectively putting lots of people on foot. Where am I going with this? If the auto manufactures built basic transportation again perhaps young people could afford a new car EV or otherwise. Imagine a street legal Polaris Side by Side variant complete with a soft top and side windows expressly prohibited on the freeways hovering around $20,000? How about a REAL retro K5 Blazer with vinyl seats, roll down windows, one computer for the engine, and soft top and sides? Does everyone really need rear heated seats? Don’t get me started on the home builders.
Capital is supposed to look for pricing power. Competition is bad for capitalism because it erodes pricing power (margins).
The Fed prints a bunch of money that allows the capitalists to create a speculative everything bubble with a SPAC and IPO boom – a few of those companies actually end up making products – capitalists erode their own pricing power.
Chevrolet Bolt price is going up:
From the article you linked: “…increased in starting price by $900 to $27,495, which includes a destination charge. The Bolt EUV, an SUV-styling of the car, increased by $600 to a starting price of $28,795.”
After slashing the price by thousands of dollars.
Read the article you link before you link it, for crying out loud.
@Mister Richter:
You’re wrong about Toyota’s take on BEVs. They’re not “missing” it – they’re just into almost every Auto Fuel Types – around the Globe.
They’ve made Hybrid/PHEV Drive Versions of most Models, so shifting from ICE/PHEV/BEVs are “easy” to them.
Full Disclosure: I’ve a Cousin who was a Toyota Sub CEO.
Get your Okusan (Missus) to find check out Toyota’s own CEO Press Releases Vids on YouTube. The Vids and Written summaries are in Japanese; but there may be Vids with Closed Captions (subscripted/”jimaku”) in English.
In a nutshell, not every Market is ready for BEV penetration. €URoZone and CHN may be pushing it( in Murica, mostly CA(still 90+%?) and FL); but European BEV Sales may slow based on their concerns of fuel cost induced plant shutdowns and Electricity Pricing.
Also, there appear to be Resource Matl Restrictions to switch – IIRC, a good amount (i.e., several times present quantities) of mining of lithium, cobalt, copper, etc., are needed to change into predominantly BEV Markets.
CHN have access to the Hydrogen Vehicle Tech as well.
Toyota have also demonstrated Hydrogen ICEs – CEO participated in Race Competitions with them.
Hydrogen can be readily SteamFracked from NatGas. CHN and JPN will be getting plenty of NatGas from Russia.
JPN_Govt have been supporting Toyota and others for awhile regarding Hydrogen – because unlike de-industrialized Murica, Hydrogen can be made available from other existing Industrial Processes.
*****Postscript
I don’t know the Household Penetration Rates of Level2/240V Charging Outlets. I understand that these may require “last mile and home” modifications; and Level1/110V Outlets work for those who drive PHEVs, have short commutes, can afford to charge overnight, and/or can charge at work or elsewhere.
Are the Californian County/City Grids capable of handling Level2 Outlets for 10, 15, 20% of Single+Garaged_Condo Residential Units?
I won’t be around Murica long enough to find out –
FYI: Hybrids are regular ICE vehicles with a supplemental electrical system. They’re NOT EVs. Plug-in hybrids regular ICE vehicles with added electrical drive and battery capacity. They’re NOT EVs. If it has an internal combustion engine, it’s NOT an EV no matter how you or Toyota propaganda try to twist it.
California has the most EVs in the US. They’re everywhere in San Francisco. It’s in Texas where the grid collapsed. I’m tired of these dumb comments about the grid and EVs. I have written whole article about this. READ THIS:
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/02/19/ev-sales-in-california-spiked-in-2021-share-hit-nearly-10-legacy-automakers-years-behind-finally-began-putting-heat-on-tesla/
Which includes this chart:
“because unlike de-industrialized Murica…”
Though slightly less per capita, America’s share of global manufacturing is greater than Japan and Germany combined. Quite impressive for a de-industrialized country.
Best I can recall I have had 5 autos the last 40 years for a grand total of about $25,000 purchase price and about $5,000 sell price. About 400,000 miles driven. All reliable. We are all different. Unless can pay cash, dropping $50,000 on wheels seems not optimum use of resources.
Boy, you mention EV’s and the comments do get crazy. Wolf has pointed out most of the nonsense, but i’ll add my 2 cents.
1. The EV revolution has left the garage, despite what some pundits and a few corners of the internet have to say. If you follow the numbers (as Wolf has) and the technology, EV’s will replace most ICE’s in 10 years. The technology has been proven, it’s cheaper (remember we are at the leading edge – the car manufacturers are going for the $ now. But with streamlining and volume and tech improvements, price will come down). They are more fun to drive, cheaper to maintain, and don’t contribute to global warming.
2. Charging is a tough one – it’s hard to compare gas stations to chargers – most charging is done at home. There will be options for apartment and condo dwellers. The markets will fix this. If I’m a 30 something with an EV and there are 2 nice condos open and one has level 2 chargers, guess which one I’m picking? (and which one will attract my friends anyway). The DC fast charging grid is weak right now. But if you look at countries that adopted EV’s before we did, charging is no longer an issue. The Netherlands are a good example.
3. EV batteries. Yes, precious metals, blah blah blah. Still mined in teeny quantities compared to most other metals. Battery technology is rapidly advancing and will look completely different in 5 years. There are batteries that will use readily available materials and have twice the energy density. Remember, your ICE is hauling around a gasoline bomb everywhere it goes.
4. For people who study and understand energy generation and distribution, the technology exists right now to go completely off fossil fuels. The barriers are only political.
I would not bet against electrification.
I disabled comments on this article due to BS overload.
EV articles bring out the worst dumbest comments in the history of mankind.
EVs are the biggest most exciting development in the US auto industry and US manufacturing in decades. They’re huge for jobs and technology. They’re huge for the oil industry and for gasoline retailers — but not in a good way, and they know it. And they’re huge for power generators, a huge money-making opportunity for electric utilities. They’re a HUGE development all around. I have covered many aspects of the impact of EVs because I cover the auto industry, manufacturing, oil & gas, electric utilities, power generators, electricity consumption, etc.
And yet, article after article, year after year, EV deniers have been posting the same frigging BS here in the comments. The EV deniers never learn anything because they don’t want to learn anything. They see EV in the title, and off they go…
It turns a comment section into a compendium of BS.
I put up with it for years. Now, it’s over.
EV deniers have accomplished something big: They have ruined the comment section on EV articles, and they have caused me to disable the comments on this article. And likely future articles.
Post this EV denier BS on Twitter, not here.
I spent hours deleting BS comments and shooting down BS comments. It’s the same thing every time I post an EV article. I’m done. I’m frustrated. I’m worn out by this BS. I’ve had it.
Comments on this article are closed due to BS overload.