The cut-off date (Nov. 14) kept much of the hit from the Covid spike out of the data. Then there are the long-term hits to the American job market, such as rampant globalization.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Everyone seems to be baking the highly anticipated potential future vaccines into the economic cake, but what has been happening for weeks is a spike in Covid cases across the US that has already triggered economic restrictions, including various versions of stay-at-home orders in Los Angeles County, San Francisco, and some other Bay Area counties, with restaurants closed for outdoor dining, strict capacity restrictions in retail stores, and many other restrictions. These moves are ahead of the State of California’s new framework for dealing with the spiking infections.
Other states and cities have similar programs, either on the front burner or on the back burner. The Covid spike has already crimped economic activity and jobs over the past few weeks and is going to do more severely going forward.
But the jobs report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was based on surveys of “establishments” for the pay period through November 12; and on surveys of households for the week through November 14.
So the data we got today largely missed the labor market consequences of the spike in Covid cases. Those consequence are coming in the next employment reports, starting with the report for December.
Despite the cut-off dates having kept much of the Covid-impacted jobs data out of the results, the data have actually deteriorated in several aspects, including the number of people with jobs as reported by households, the employment-population rate, and the labor force.
The headline number of 245,000 jobs created came from surveys of establishments (companies, governments, nonprofits, educational institutions, etc.). That survey doesn’t track gig workers. It depicted a lousy recovery. But lousy as it was, it was the more benign part.
The survey of households, on the other hand, tracks people who are working full or part time, including gig workers. And households reported that the number of people with jobs ticked down to 149.7 million. This wasn’t a slowdown in growth, but an actual decline of 74,000 working people – the first month-to-month decline since April.
The chart shows both results, from establishments (green) and from households (red) – the biggest part of the difference being gig workers. It’s obvious that even by November 12, before the real impact of the Covid surge, this was no good, in terms of catching up with population growth, or in terms of anything else. Households reported a loss of 9.0 million jobs in November, from February:
The employment-population ratio, which tracks the number of employed workers against the working-age population (16 years or older) also dipped in November, to 57.3%, a level first seen since in 1972:
Over the long term, the employment-population ratio tracks the progress of globalization – of corporate America outsourcing labor to cheap countries – not only manufacturing and all the economic support that comes with it, but also all kinds of intellectual property work, such as coding and automotive design, and all kinds of other service work, from call centers to basic lawyering. This movement took on momentum in the late 1990s.
Since then, after each crisis, companies offshored more work, and the employment-population ratio recovered from the plunge, but not to its previous level, before the next crisis hit and the plunge started all over again, from lower highs to lower lows:
The labor force is composed of people who answer questions in the household surveys that indicate they are either working or are looking for a job, as defined by the BLS. People who want a job but haven’t looked for a job in the specified period are knocked out of the labor force.
During the early months of the Pandemic, the laid-off workers were still on earth, but they didn’t look for a job because it was hopeless. Then the labor force recovered through August, and stalled. In November – household surveys through November 14 – the labor force ticked down again, falling below where it had been in August:
So this employment data, as dreary as it is, attempted to capture the labor market conditions the way they were through November 14. In the three weeks since then, conditions have worsened, and they’re in the process of worsening further with the renewed restrictions now rippling across the country, and December is going to be rougher on the employment front.
Office occupancy plunged by the most in Dallas. In San Francisco, where it had already been rock-bottom, it dipped into the single digits. Read… The State of the American Office: Suddenly Emptying Out Again Under the Second Wave
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Don’t worry Wolf. Other restaurants will close but the French Laundry will be deemed to be a necessary business. We have to pity Newsom and Breed. Where else are they supposed to get their lunches and dinners?
Expect riots if pandemic assistance is not extended later this month.
Yeah, the problem is that Biden and the rest of the Democrats are hung up on this ridiculous $1,200. If the Robinhood crowd and the retail splurge from earlier this year showed us anything, it’s that giving people free money who haven’t lost any income does not “stimulate” anything that we want stimulated.
Uhm, no. Biden already said he backs the current 908 billion package. The first 1200 was credited with help keeping the economy going somewhat. If they do decide to do another 1200, then it should be targeted at middle and low income families. I guarantee you, it will all go back into the economy, providing needed cash to restaurants, other small businesses, and keeping people employed who are still working. I think that once we get the vaccine up and going, the economy will go gangbusters, and all it’s talk of economic ruin due to debt will evaporate
Biden said a few days ago that he really wants another $1,200 check. Look, the fact is, some people spent the $1,200 in a way that actually did stimulate the businesses that need it, but many didn’t. Splurging on durable goods or investing the $1,200 in the stock market, as many young 20 somethings did, did not help anything.
Several years ago, at Xmas time, I read that the UK was experiencing a consumer led recovery, it was due to the fact that credit cards had been given to those least likely to be able to repay the spent monies.
The thinking was that Brit’s with money go abroad to shop whereas the poor & unfortunate would spend at home.
I wondered how the banks could afford such a loss .. (???)
Further reading told me that the interest paid in certain investment schemes of the have was to be lowered.
Was this a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul?
Mark Carney governor of the Bank of England was a veritable Robbin Hood.
Speaking of the UK, right now it’s paying about a third of the interest that the US pays on a 10 year bond. About .35 % compared to about .95 for the US. Japan is paying nothing, .03, and Germany’s is negative.
Not sure what to make of this. Except maybe as rocky as things are for UK, they are aware of it and realize they can’t spend forever.
Canadian $ also at 2 year high.
Is the US a bigger spender even than Trudeau? Some Canadians are sweating (or at least noting) that we are approaching a trillion C$ debt. Although our last minister of finance, Morneau, had a few minor personal conflicts (as did Trudeau) he was a finance guy and was more deficit- concerned than Trudeau. I believe he resigned over that, not the 40K in expenses he repaid after it was questioned.
Can you imagine anyone in the US resigning over deficits being too big?
The US is approaching 30 T debt, with almost a T a month deficit in the last 3 months and no one seems concerned. So maybe even Canada is looking like a cleaner dirty shirt.
That’s right, let them eat cake.
As for restaurants, all we need is the French Laundry, we need to open a dozen more of these, a chain of French Laundry, but if you go there, you must have mandatory proof of vaccine. I think the Canadians might get there ahead of us. And if you can’t afford $500 a meal, then we invite you to go elsewhere. Although they may have to start a take out service.
As for pandemic assistance, once again, CA will lead the way, it will be paid to everyone, just like unemployment checks were paid to prisioners… uh… those who were falsely imprisoned that is…. to the tune of $400 million. And when asked… it was the fault of the Federal government that happened…
So goes CA, so goes the nation… wasn’t that the refrain from our glorious governor? But the boy genius is cool though… he knows social justice and equality. Fortunately, for us, that means vaccination will be viewed through the lens of justice…. whatever the F*** that means, at least that’s what KQED seems to be parroting out of office of glorious Leader Gavin.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a chain somewhere called the French Laundry. Instead of serving amuse bouche to the tune of a hundred dollars (at least), they are probably a chain of laundromats :)
R A G I N G W A S H E R S
–Laundromat Theme Park–
The Plot Against the Small Businesses.
How pandemic policy has benefited the corporate elite.
3 Dec 2020
“CA will lead the way, it will be paid to everyone, just like unemployment checks were paid to prisioners… uh… those who were falsely imprisoned that is…. to the tune of $400 million. And when asked… it was the fault of the Federal government that happened…”
Poorly run, promise everything to everyone blue states which were heading toward the need for unjustified federal bailouts are simply increasing their chances, now especially good with a Dim prez and, possibly, a Dim CONgress. Meanwhile, the Dimwits who soiled their nests via their idiotic voting habits flee to red states to soil their new nests. It’s a metastasizing cancer of stupidity.
Wow, and I thought I had a harsh, demeaning word or two for those who have ruined and continue to ruin our Once Great Country. It is up to the rest of us Americans who still have two or three functioning brain cells left to get the Ship of State back on course. Nice play on words, Winston, which happens to be my middle name after Churchill.
Reverse of the Depression when the red state poor migrated to California. Perhaps the rules about states running deficits will be rescinded, and states will have their own (crypto?) currencies, their own central banks, and create resident accounts? The center cannot hold.
People in California will be so rich, they’ll burn their California currency to heat their houses. Or something like that….
Burning cash (or anything) is not allowed, because air pollution. Unless it’s the forest that’s burning. Organic, natural-smoke air pollution is ok. Even if it burns down a few towns.
It’s the same logical policy structure that says that everyone has to do lockdowns and stay home, except for elite leaders, or those going out to engage in “mostly peaceful” protests in favor of causes legitimized by the endless propaganda brainwashing.
It would be farcical if it wasn’t so real…
Don Quijones .. in his articled .. Digital Bank Robbers Feast on Latin Banks .. shows us that the establishment is not the all seeing, all knowing oracle we are led to believe.
Progress is unstoppable .. who knows what these Digital vandals are capable of today ??
On screen money can be conjured by many & soon .. maybe any one & “buy an app & charge up your disposable income daily for free” imagine that luxury.
Helter Skelter is in play .. the Kingdom at the top of the Xmas tree is at least perplexed.
What is a more important job? Mayor of San Francisco, with a board of supervisors, elected by and representing their districts, who make all the decisions?
Or, president of the United States?
Guess who gets more taxpayer money to do their job?
Every time I hear “French Laundry”, I think “Operation Car Wash” in Brazil.
It is almost like the scummy political class intentionally sets out to do its underhanded, under the table business in places with a faux blue collar patina, like they are slumming while they are sneering.
I sense the birth of a new verb, akin to
“The citizens of California have been French Laundered by the elite leader class French Laundering politicos.”
Those very same politicos who are expert at presenting ‘gaslit’ ambiance!
Yea, as if if the national mishandling of this virus which has caused the death of hundreds of thousands of your fellow citizens and the idiotic behavior of those “demonic dems” eating out are equal. Big brain time! How do you even have money to invest?
What am hearing is as people reach their UI benefit limit they have to reapply for PEUC, an extension, and that’s considered a new claim. The system is extremely complicated, first regular UI, then PEUC, then back to extended benefits.
I heard someone say they are reducing benefits on extensions because they recalculate your wages using the UI income from your UI claim. This is really disgusting, if true.
That’s just pissing on the wounds.
Shutting down businesses, not compensating the owners, nickel & diming the unemployed – all the while drawing full salary and dining at French Laundry. These lawmakers disgust me.
Does anyone want to bet real money on Newsom not being governor and Breed not being mayor the next time they come up for election? Anyone….
CA has gone the way of HI, cementing essentially idiotic one party rule… you can’t really expect change, the three things you can do is…. join the system and try to get rich, move out, or scraping by day to day trying to survive.
Hawai’i used to be a nice place to visit and probably a decent place to live. Pretty much out of the question now.
Another Dim government that can not do anything right:
“After promising at the start of his term to “build rail better,” Mayor Kirk Caldwell is leaving office on news that the 20-mile transit line is now $6 billion over budget and 13 years behind schedule. We should have asked, “Better than what?”
Remember when talking about how landlords would ‘eventually’ be paid for rent owed by those pesky renters……………
Here is an article from Hawai’i about that. If this is repeated in the other 49 states, those landlords are going to have nothing but losses:
“Hawaii’s courts are expected to be filled with “thousands and thousands” of legal disputes between landlords and their tenants who are delinquent on rent once the current ban on evictions expires at the end of the year, the head of the state Office of Consumer Protection said Tuesday.”
With the current situation in the USA that looks like what is coming down the road.
Don’t get me wrong, Hawaii is still a great place to live. Especially if you have the means. Just take a look at the condos they put up right next to Ala Moana. The problem is that the wealth gap is becoming greater and greater, and a far larger portion of the population is ending up on the wrong side of that gap.
I know this from friends who are on both sides of that gap. The one thing they say for certain is that the visible signs of that inequality has become much more pronounced over the last decade.
That’s just the result of long term one party rule for you. The fact that the party happens to be Jackasses instead of Dumbos is purely coincidental in my opinion. In HI, the jackasses functionally aren’t that different from the communists with their one party rule. The only thing they provide is a waste of money to build up the illusion of choice through voting.
“not being Governor…not being mayor”
It’s CaliforniaTown, Jake.
Biden is already retailing the Teachers’ Union scam (er, pitch) that they “need” an extra $100 billion to open all the schools (“Nice little schoolhouse ya got there, wouldn’t want anything ta happen ta it…”).
Anybody want to bet that Teachers’ Union pensions are short in the neighborhood of $100 billion, despite decades of warnings?
Not true, I think every state automatically transitions state claims to PEUC when the state claims are used up. In the DOL report the PEUC claims are covered in a completely different section so that they are not included in the headline number of new claims. The best place to track them in the continuing claims for all programs. Finally people are rolling off PEUC because they have used up their 39 weeks in all programs. That would be an new application process, but luckily the vast majority of states cover 26 weeks directly.
It is conceivable that a worker in a state that has an exceptionally short state covered program such as FL with 13 week could use up those benefits and the additional 13 weeks of PEUC in 26 weeks. At that point the work could then apply to PUA for an additional 13 weeks as that program covers anyone for up 39 weeks.
No matter what both Federal Programs, PEUC and PUA, end December 26th. Merry Christmas.
Please note the DOL report and the BLS report discussed here are completely different. The DOL report totals claims from the states while BLS performs a computational analysis of surveys sent to households and individuals.
No editing. The:
“That would be an new application process, but luckily the vast majority of states cover 26 weeks directly.”
Should have been at the end of the second paragraph.
Well, repeat PEUCing IS discusting!
Sounds about right, been saying this last couple of months. The worse these numbers look the higher the market is. Based on this trajectory guess the market will again be in all time high by end of this year. Good times unless you’re the working class that lost your job…to see the market goes nuts up everyday is like getting a punch in the face daily..
The market goes up on bad numbers because they know they get the stim money. Gut roiling isn’t it. Welcome to the American worship of capitalism at all cost
Wallstreet forgets the lessons of the past. It’s greed soils it’s own nest and it will become universally hated and mistrusted as it was after 1929 and 1932. Markets flatlined for decades while Americans grew and prospered. This may start in 2021. It’s taken 20 years for a new crop of retail bag holders. But they are now propelling the markets up into the most overvalued overbought mess. I am watching flatlined small craps rocket up. Just like in late 1999 and early 2000. SPACs IPO are being offered weekly. They are a true license to steal. Give me money. For nothing and too bad so sad when they vaporize. Ie NKLA
And no I am not short the indexes not yet. Shorts are still in the process of being destroyed. My guess is a stim Bill might finally get the markets the blow off top
Honestly by this time there should be enough data on who’s really impacted by this pandemic. Those people should be helped ASAP. The rest should not get another round of 1200, etc.
Exactly. Targeted aid toward small businesses and other impacted industries that can demonstrate a revenue decline because of COVID and an extension of unemployment benefits, along with some level of aid to state and local governments (but not enough so that they are made whole and don’t have to tighten their belts at all), is all we should have.
Giving $1,200 to people who haven’t lost their jobs so they can buy a new LED TV or to a 24 year old living at home so that he can buy Hertz stock is not productive.
The stimulus checks MAY have made sense if the problem for small businesses was a lack of money among its customers. But it isn’t. People are avoiding the hard-hit businesses because they don’t want to be exposed to COVID, not because they can’t afford it. Giving these people $1,200 isn’t going to make them go to a restaurant.
RightNYer and MonkeyBusiness you have the right idea about targeted aid. We just need to do stimulus faster and smarter. Then our problems will be solved!
We can really speed up getting stimulus to the people affected. For example since it’s hard for politicians in Washington to manage these complicated programs and they are sooo busy working with industry experts to write new laws and such, just make it so that people affected by the pandemic are allowed to print as many dollars as they need on color printers at their house or the local library. This would really speed stimulus process up, put it in the right hands and get away from the complication of people having to apply and wait for govt employees to process applications, paperwork, etc.
Hahaha your proposal is actually better than FedGov USSA directed plan, at least the distribution of currency would skew more towards the poorest than they do now or even under the proposed solutions in CONgress atm :P
“Why would the federal government be any better than the central planners in USSR?” is not a question people consider… let alone the graft, miss-allocation of resources, moral hazards and incentives of any centrally directed program…
“on color printers at their house”
Believe it or not, quite some time ago when color laser printers being used to print currency first became a problem, I read that color laser printers were being designed to recognize currency and not print it or print it blacked out. Also, color laser printers and, perhaps, inkjet printers print unnoticeable color dot sequences that ID the printer.
Big Brother be watchin’…
I sympathize with your position, but “targeting” stimulus payments to those who actually need them would be an administrative FUBAR for govt. The govt would have to employ so many people to sift through applications from legit and illegit businesses and gig workers. Even then, the crafty ones would get stim $$$ over many of the needy ones. An argument could be made, I suppose, that hiring all these people, akin to the census worker program, is a way to put people to work, but there is no guarantee those workers would spend properly either.
As random as it may be, the helicopter dropping of $$ to all is just the most efficient way to get stim into the economy in some way/shape/form.
For politicians, it’s tough job, but someone has to do it (hee hee).
I disagree. Extending regular unemployment is easy. Some level of aid from legitimate businesses who are willing to send you their pics is fairly easy too.
Helicopter dropping $$ did nothing except cause a splurge on retail durable goods. That’s the worst way to “stimulate” this current economy.
As Wolf has said in the part, that 1200 would go into excess consumption and interest bearing loans that will enrich corporate America. Unemployment benefits are just a subsistence income that would do less of that. It’s the PU truck vs the box of oatmeal.
The gov neither had the data nor wants the data.
Either the unemployed go hungry or the grifters get a gift. You can decide which is more important.
It seems that the time has come to invest heavily in Lampost & Boiled Rope futures!
Worker : “ Why do bad things never happen to you ? “
Capitalist: “ Because I own and control the means of production. “
Worker: “ Where can I get a pitchfork and a length of rope ? “
Capitalist : “ I will sell them to you. “
Governments can control the means of production, capitalists can’t.
In free market you need to compete and even then victory is not guaranteed. For every successful company that you see, there are at least 100 that failed.
Big corporations crush out small businesses not because of capitalism but due to government influence.
As the most recent example, look how the lockdown policies of governments have affected small businesses and how they have profited big corporations.
Mmmmm,I wonder if that is an accident?Just today,sat.Dec.5,I saw a video posted on Twitter from a woman in Cal. Who couldnot open her restaurant patio after she had spent so much time and $ to create it.Yet,Miraculously,a movie company was allowed to set up an uglier,bigger version of the patio literally across from the restaurant!!Restaurant patio should be full of the movie customers and movie co. Could open smaller patio,both open and happy.
And don’t forget our idiot leaders who enabled them…. although half of them are happily denouncing the said capitalists now, swearing up and down that they were on the side of the workers.
This is what happens to any organization or person that gets captured by a political party, just ask the union about how things have improved for them since they threw their lot behind a bunch of jackasses years ago.
Karl Marx quote:
“The last capitalist we hang shall be the one that sold us the rope”
The main difference between socialism. and the form of socialism called communism, is that communism operates with a totalitarian government.
It would seem we’re headed towards communism not socialism.
Marxist theory predicts “the next stage after capitalism is communism characterized by the imperfect implementation of collectivist principles.”
It doesn’t make any difference if the totalitarian government thinks they are becoming more socialistic, they lean towards totalitarianism with their imperfect implementation of collective principles.
“The main difference between socialism and the form of socialism called communism, is that communism operates with a totalitarian government.”
This is simply not true. In its conception by Marx communism is stateless. Only the transitional government from a capitalist to a communist society, the dictatorship of the proletariat, is totalitarian. But unlike capitalist society it is controlled by the working class, and not the capitalist class. Lower phase communism only arises from the abolishment of the state, of classes and of markets through the replacement of money and the accumulation of capital with labor vouchers. It is only much later that vouchers are replaced by free access, heralding higher phase communism.
Socialism, in its current conception as handouts from the capitalist class, is not any way related to communism.
Actually, not entirely unrelated. Socialism is allowed by the capitalist class insofar as it keeps the unemployed and lower classes – who might have an incentive to actually do something – satiated. And, in that regard it is a useful tool in creating endless friction and vitriol within the working classes.
Is this not the early stages?”…the imperfect implementation of collectivist principles.” Marx
“:Only the transitional government from a capitalist to a communist society, the dictatorship of the proletariat, is totalitarian.” Justin
BC reduced its unemployment rate by a full percentage point last month. Additional Covid restrictions have been on for the past 2 weeks, and are likely to be extended for another 2 weeks. The infection numbers are not astronomical, but the health officer decides here, and politicians keep quiet about what she says except to back her. There will be no Christmas visitors in our house, just a lonely tree for my wife and I and Jack Russell pup.
Schools are in full attendance except for two with outbreaks and/or staff shortages. I think just 2?? One private school and one public elementary. Christmas break will likely be extended across the Province.
I was in town today picking up a new range. I also hit a hardware store. Except for masks and the social distancing, it seemed normal for pre Christmas shopping in both numbers and pressure. While hospitality businesses are suffering, everything else seems like it always is and has been.
What scares me is this is all starting to seem normal. 10 months in now, and counting down to a vaccine. It has been interesting comparing the mitigation efforts/results between Canada and the US. Our Federal Finance Minister stated yesterday that we will do whatever it takes to get through this as a Country, and that Canada has the resources to see it through and will help out those who are affected most. Our right wing provinces are suffering the most, and Alberta (which is where my son works, and where I have also worked/lived and remain quite fond of), is sinking into dysfunction as it talks about individual freedoms and the right to choose masks, behaviours, etc. (For now). Their infection numbers are ballooning. Could there be a correlation?/sarc
While we are in a new surge throughout the World, there is light and hope with vaccines. Hang in there. When the virus subsides, the sound you hear will be recovery and joy. Maybe even the odd kaching kaching or three.
Hasn’t the boy genius (yours, not CA’s) been a little slow on the draw as far as getting on board the vaccine bandwagon? I think I saw a note that said Canada doesn’t quite know when the first vaccination will begin. But what matters (according to Trudeau) is when the vaccination will be completed in “late 2021”
Don’t know if that’s pure genius on the part of Justin to make sure the rest of the world test out the vaccine first on a mass scale, or if he was didn’t in line on time.
Unemployment is riddled with fraud during this pandemic. Looks like a new surge in deaths and cases and lockdowns and restrictions will bring a new wave of schisters and fraudulent claims for more $$$$.
“While we are in a new surge throughout the World, there is light and hope with vaccines.”
Thus far, they have been tested to protect for only 3 months, that being due to the limited testing time. Also, vaccine testing for vaccines using the old immunization technique to determine any negative long-term effects take 6 to 8 years and, sometimes, decades. These vaccines use the new mRNA technique, NEVER before used in humans for vaccination.
That technique has previously been used for “designer” attacks on cancer. Interestingly, one of the potential side effects, an auto-immune disorder that attacks the body’s normal, healthy cells (ex., HIV/AIDS) was recently shown in a re-run of a House MD episode from over a decade ago where that technique was being used on a cancer patient.
Winston, the thought of any governmental body forcing any American to get a basically untested vaccine in early 2021 makes my blood boil. I know I will wait months to see which vaccine is the most effective and which one has the least (fatal?) side-effects. Ready to fund a class-action lawsuit via Judicial Watch if any jurisdiction tries to force citizens to get an untested-in-the-field vaccine. Lab testing or clinical trials do not replicate real life conditions in this Pandemic Panicked world.
Dear slave… shut up and take it, or we’ll do make you do it. No, we won’t send in the police to hold your arms down while forcibly inject you.
We’ll just put you on the equivalent of the Chinese social credit scoring system, think vaccine passport on your smart phone, or a chipped smart ID. No vaccine, no traveling outside of your house beyond 5 miles, no vaccine, no airplane rides, no vaccine, no grocery store visits for you.
Then we slap a big red letter A on your door…. A standing for Anti-Vaccine, and we will shame you until you either take the vaccine or die of depression from lack of social contact. (I’m curious in how many people got the big red letter A reference)
This message has been brought to you by your future overlords in the government.
There won’t be enough vaccines to villufy anyone. All these lofty projections of availability are just that.. projections. We will see if they even get the Medical industry 100% vaccinated by April.
The government isn’t going to force anyone to get vaccinated.
Your employer or school probably will. The airlines will require a vaccination card, as will cruise lines.
No vaccine? No air travel, no school registration for children or adults, no admittance to doctor’s offices, no passport, professional license or DMV renewals, etc.
O.K. fine, then no income tax filings or payments by so affected citizens, unless money owed back to them by the I.R.S, they the ones who haven’t yet wised up and filed an Exemption From Withholding, in perfectly reasonable expectation of ongoing shutdowns. BTW, that’s the only way the individual mandate fines could be collected, refunds on withholding, just in case president harris reinstates that somehow.
Let’s see what ten percent+ of the population joining a debt and tax strike would do to the will of the special interests looting the country.
My step daughter-in-law (divorcee, but still family) is still unemployed since April (energy business – oil & gas accountant). She is out of Fed UI, but still on State UI. Her forbearance mortgage payment relief ends this month (?). I believe she is spending her 401k funds to keep even with bills, etc.
Still no job on the horizon. No interviews on the horizon either. She is 55 years old which is a problem. Not much help from her 24 year old son who has a min wage job. This is not going to end well.
It doesn’t sound like things will end well for her at all. If she can’t keep the house, she should not use her retirement. Retirement is protected in BK.
It’s very, very difficult to find a job at her age. She will need to look for lower-wage, lower-skilled work. Her son will need to cover his part of the bills. The bills will be lower in a small apartment.
Please clutch your pearls and pardon my oh so pheasantry summation: The govt inflation figures are BS, the govt unemployment figures are BS, the govt unemployment figures are BS.
No, the numbers are probably accurate. You might suggest that the metric by which the numbers are generated are BS, however. Arguable.
True!It’s All b.s. Including covd+#s!Covd death#s are b.s.Shadowstats may give some insight into realistic gov. Data.cdc is a corrupt,vacc. Development/sales entity-Not your truthy medical guru.Look into their history,staffing,$$!
I have concluded that the only reason the stock market is up, is because of the massive amount of money creation by the Fed.
Wall Street is completely divorced from what is happening on Main Street.
Financialization of everything has driven a wedge between the two streets.
WES, all the Fed has done with its Throw Money at the Wall and see if it sticks strategy is to bail out already monied investors and banks operating on Wall Street; clearly, the Fed is biased toward the 1% at the top of the financial food chain.
Main Street still has it hat in hand, and will fare poorly in the months ahead. If the dim bulbs in CONgress want to promote infrastructure rebuilding in America, give the contracts to small businesses and minimum wages earners who have suffered the most in 2020 and will be suffering the most in 2021 & beyond. Oh, but they are not major campaigns contributors, are they??!
Cantillon Effect at work here. Those closest to the money spigot (guv and Fed) get the fresh-baked cookies.
Rest of us striving to add economic value through work and savings eat mud cakes.
Has anyone else noticed that Real Vision is now showing the “Debt out the Wazoo” chart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdqIBqn-T0k&t=260
Doesn’t matter. The messier the better for the US stock market. The messier the more likely stimulus will get rolled out to help the unemployed. Let’s bring s&p to 4,000? Still not cutting loss? Your loss will be eating into your retirement fund pretty soon
I agree with you and will add to this mysterious logic of the market reaching all time highs, and read today that WS is aware of all this, however anticipates massive stimulus by the Gov and by the Fed, so it goes even higher.
People have referred to the market as “defying gravity” and I agree to this, even though in years before there would have been massive selloffs in these conditions.
The buying on any kind of news, or dips absolutely astounds me and hearing that millions of neophyte investors are going “All In”, using margin at all time records, algos buying dips, – like they live in a world that doesn’t see the risk of collapse that outweigh any gains.
I recall the painful corrections from ’87 forward, but this new crowd hasn’t dealt with this, and are in for a horrible surprise, however when they get wiped out or have a margin call they probably think the Gov will bail them out, or pack up and leave, then brokers will be holding the bag.
IMO – all this backstopping is – “kicking the can down the road” and a horrible correction will happen, – I easily see a 30+ trillion dollar deficit in 2021.
Conclusion: – “It isn’t different this time” – it’s a delayed train wreck.
Martok, it is all about CONFIDENCE. Although the Fed and the Government are running Ponzi schemes with never to be paid back money, the U.S. Dollar and the Bond market hold the key in here. The Dollars is cratering as I type, and bond yields are actually backing up at the 10-year and 30-year levels.
But with all the leverage and non-fundamental (i.e., momentum) investing taking place in stocks, it just takes one lemming to yell “fire” with a major financial company bankruptcy (Europe!) or a negative U.S. GDP print or an election stuck in the Supreme Court on 1/20/2021, AND THE EXITS ARE GOING TO GET JAMMED.
Have been investing now for 46 years, and know an accident waiting to happen when I see one. Have only 3.6% of my net worth in anything related to the stock or bond market with one foot already out the exit door. Stay liquid with currency buried in a National Park.
David, exactly. A common argument I hear for why the U.S. can borrow and print its way out of trouble is that a) we’re the reserve currency and b) that we’ll always be the reserve currency because we’re the “cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry hamper.”
The problem with this is this reserve currency status is precisely BECAUSE the rest of the world had confidence that we would grow our economy and pay taxes to pay our debts.
While the rest of the developed world is not in amazing shape either, there’s at least a sense that they are willing to pay taxes to at least TRY to pay for their spending. As an example, in countries like Denmark, even the “middle class” pays a 44% marginal tax rate. Our middle class pays almost no federal income taxes after various deductions, and our super wealthy pay almost nothing as well (it’s really only the upper middle class who make their money from salaries who pay a lot of taxes).
By now, it’s abundantly clear that Americans are NEVER willing to pay the taxes needed to pay for the lifestyle that we feel like we “deserve.” With that understanding, how much longer can we expect the rest of the world to bankroll our standard of living?
David W. Young,
And where do they get this “CONFIDENCE”?
They get it because they know the Gov and Fed will artificially prop up the markets.
When will the “CONFIDENCE” break? – When the Gov and Fed credit card runs outta money, and or there are major global defaults.
Wolf, do you think the unemployment data is skewed because of telephone surveys? We know that there is less door knocking due to covid and that response rates have gone down for the bls surveys. So that would lead to error and perhaps less reliable data.
Also, what do you make of sample bias? We know that polling data for the election was pretty far off due to the fact that Trump voters just don’t pick up the phone or respond to surveys – it’s the college educated, liberal crowd that does moreso, and so any kind of correction factor to account for this sample bias was clearly insufficient since the data was just so far off. Maybe the same with the BLD survey, the unemployed are less likely to be college grads and so they are less likely to respond?
The Census Bureau (which handles those surveys) itself has addressed your questions in the document I linked in the article. Pretty good explanation. Click on the link in the 3rd paragraph and scroll down to the boxed section, titled, “Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on November 2020 | Establishment and Household Survey Data.”
These Census surveys are huge surveys going out to lots of people and “establishments.” They have nothing in common with the quickie surveys done by the media during elections that ask 1,000 potential voters how they’d vote.
Joe Biden warns of a shutdown, and people stop hiring. What does one expect?
Biden warned of no such thing. This is total BS you’re spreading here. One of his advisors suggested it as an idea while jabbering to the media. But advisers jabber a lot.
Biden said that he would put out a recommendation of wearing masks for the first 100 days of his term. But that’s not a “shutdown.”
Shutdowns are now being implemented on a state and local basis because ICUs are now full or nearly full, and a record number of people are now dying of Covid, and all heck is breaking loose.
People are cherry picking which suits their agenda, nothing to do truth or reality on the ground.
Wolf, and Donald Trump did not shut down the U.S. economy this year. It was all done at the State and local levels. How does a democracy (?) that has a Constitution that delegates all unspecified rights to the States (States Rights) that are not specifically reserved for the Federal Government? Is this a National Security Issue reserved for the Federal Government or is it a States Rights issue in dealing with a Pandemic that is highly contagious but where the morbidity rate is greatly in question.
David W. Young,
This — “the morbidity rate is greatly in question” — drives me nuts these days. Last February, that might have passed, but now??? Nearly 300,000 Americans have died in 9 months of Covid. 58,000 Americans died in Vietnam. It is likely that over half a million Americans will die of Covid by spring. This virus is some deadly crap. And many people who had it and survived have long-term health problems. And that’s not even figured in the numbers.
Just think how much the USA is going to ‘save’ in Social Security and Medicare payments going forward as a result of all the deaths in aged care…………………
Well what do you expect when you have 50 different governments with a whole bunch of other local governments all running around with their collective heads cut off.
A bunch of different ‘rules’ or laws or edicts for each entity as well.
Add in bad weather which forces people indoors and allows the virus to flourish and that is what you get: cases exploding.
In this situaton ‘lockdowns’ a la California are useless because they really aren’t ‘lockdowns’.
If you want to ‘lockdown’ to stop the virus you’ll have to go the Chinese route by welding doors shut or the Victoria route which took almost 4 months of serious ‘lockdown’ and another 4 months of ‘lockdown light’: no travel, 1 hour of time outside your house per day, curfews, restricted distance travel, and all the other crap we put up with.
We still have numerous restrictions despite having no cases for over a month. All that means is that there have been no detected cases via tests, but virus fragments are still being found in sewage which means there are people in the community that still carry the virus.
The entire situation looks like a repeat of the various waves that happened during the Spanish flu with the second wave being more deadly thatn the first.
I am a bit concerned about Australia again as the idiots in government are thinking about opening the country to international travel for sport people and citizens returning from overseas.
Those dolts in government here screwed up the qurantine program which resulted in that second lockdown in Victoria…………..could happen again…….
And you won’t beleive what happened here in Oz……………..
Was listening to the radio this morning.
Yesterday, two international travelers from Germany got off the plane in Sydney and skipped quarantine somehow and managed to fly into Melbourne.
Some person working at a car rental agency thought something was fishy and alerted the government.
So how in the world were these two people able to ‘escape’ into the country, catch a flight and almost make it into Victoria undected.
Luckily, they were found out by a clerk at a car rental place.
So now they are in quarantine, 174 people on the flight are also in quarnatine, and we wait for the test results……..
“..,wearing masks for first 100 days of his term.”
What doesn’t that mean, specifically?
Will the enforcers find their way to Effingham, IL ?
I said “recommendation,” but you quoted what I said out of context, leaving off the word “recommendation,” and then proceeded to turn yourself into the theater of the absurd.
Biden said himself while campaigning that he would havelocked down the whole country.I do not remember if he specified a time period,and he probably does not either!
I think he only reads what’s scripted for him. His handlers should keep the notes for future reference.
Um Wolf you might want to go back and watch the debates. Joe said proudly he would be open to shutting the economy down. And let’s be honest fox(the advisors) are not only in the hen house(his administration) they are going to be running it. I don’t care what party affiliation people associate with. Biden isn’t all there and I doubt he has the energy to run the show. Kamala and the gang are going to be doing the heavy lifting we all know it.
Pfizer was supposed to have stockpiled 100,000 doses of vaccine by this time. They have 50,000 doses and nations are wanting. They might be vaccinating healthcare workers sometime next year. Homeless people are hiding campsites in the Florida jungle. There are lines at food banks. The price of real estate has been rising. Home construction increasing. People crowd into restaurants until the hospitals turn away ambulances.
Vaccine ‘mania’ as a cure to restore Economy!?
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla says that he is “not certain” that the company’s vaccine will prevent people from carrying and spreading the virus to others.
NBC Thursday night
People might care to search out Dr Mike Yeadon, formerly of Pfizer with a distinguished research record and career -hard to find because like all so-called ‘vaccine sceptics’ (he is NOT an anti-vaxxer) he is being sidelined -and he has much to say on this topic. First class, informed, reasoning.
His concept of ‘convergence of opportunism’ as a partial explanation of what is going on is worth reflecting on.
Thank you. I’m going to research this.
‘convergence of opportunism’ is kind of like confirmation bias by those that have placed a very large bet.
Pfizer and others have placed a big bet financially, and they need it to be right.
Phase III primary study study with 170 c19 participants, 162 get placebos and 8 get vaccines.
This is an expedited small phase 3 study.
They have a bigger one with 44,000 patients in phase 1 that will take 2 yrs.
Saw that video.It is Worth watching for some propaganda relief!
Yeah, I’m really curious about the vaccine mafia. All of the talking heads indicated that the government risked their money to build up stockpile ahead of approval. Now that approval is almost upon us, what happened to the $18 billion spent on vaccine. Wasn’t there supposed to be something like a couple hundred million doses available at the end of the year?
P.S. before anyone comments on this being fake news, it came out of NPR a few months back.
Investigations should start with Fauci. He is constantly talking his book. He receives royalties from patents. I read one interview where he claims that he donates all the royalties to “charity”, didn’t say who.
Also claims the government forces him to put his name on the patent applications, with the implication that he can not sell or donate his interest in the patents. Yeah, sure. Whatever.
But Fauci is some kind of untouchable hero, perhaps for his success at bureaucratic warfare? After 50 years at NIH, he certainly knows where all the bodies are buried.
“Public Private Partnerships” between his NIH institute and pharma are ripe for investigation. Funny how it is always setup so the public takes the risk, the private takes the profit, and the researchers get funding and keep their mouths shut.
Fauci made several mistakes and he didn’t even offer an apology for the whole mask kabuki. And there’s the whole “Remdesivir is the standard of care” even though the drug has been shown to be ineffective. I don’t think he should be treated as a hero, but he shouldn’t be treated as a bad guy either.
What really needs to happen is he should be retired.
i just read that they are about to, or have already begun, vaccinating prisoners. Shouldn’t health care professionals be prioritized first?
What is the consensus regarding the safety of this upcoming vaccine? Because there are two very opposed (like everything else in this land) viewpoints, with those on the skeptical side stating they will not take it unless forced.
Finally, a comment to the U.S. covid death count- Last night i watched a presentation by a Johns Hopkins academic and statistician named Dr. Genevieve Briand- she summarized CDC data on all deaths between March and Sept of this year – her data summary used the sum-total of all deaths during that time period making the claim that total deaths did not reflect any meaningful year on year increase from previous years of the same time period. However, IMO, the data needs to be broken down further to get a better understanding, because her conclusions were highly controversial (to put it kindly) in a serious pandemic such as this.
“Finally, a comment to the U.S. covid death count- Last night i watched a presentation by a Johns Hopkins academic and statistician named Dr. Genevieve Briand…”
That person’s article was retracted. It was total BS. It should have never been published, the John Hopkins Newsletter said. Don’t spread this moron’s BS here. This is not a free-for-all. That’s why I normally delete this crap.
I can’t believe that you Covid-deniers still have the gumption to keep going and grasping at discredited straws after nearly 300,000 Americans died because of Covid.
At least Google this crap before you post it here.
let’s try this again. i think it’s unfair to deny oneself this information simply based on the fact that Johns Hopkins deleted her présentation. i for one wouldn’t, because i like to think i’m smart enough and old enough to decide for myself based on an aggregate of information, what is true. and hold off on forming an opinion if there isn’t enough info- see, her charts were prima-facia correct. what i saw that was iffy were her conclusions and even she admitted the data needed further breakdown, which i agree, it does need further breakdown. i don’t get the outrage over it- and i’m guessing it’s largely politically motivated, because doesn’t seem to be any other reasonable explanation, at least coming from my point of view.
now there is chatter coming from a couple sources incld. a Pfizer ex-exec (disgruntled? maybe) that this upcoming vaccine can cause infertility in some women. what do we the public really know? admittedly, not a lot.
There is a big difference between “i like to think i’m smart enough and old enough to decide for myself based on an aggregate of information,” and using my site to spread someone else’s nonsense about a deadly disease. This is NOT a game. And if I, through my negligence of handling my site, contribute to the deadliness of the disease because people believe this stuff that I allowed to get through, I’m in part responsible for the deadliness of this disease. So the answer is no, you cannot use my site to spread someone else’s nonsense.
After reading the linked article, my guess is that Dr. Genevieve Briand will be shortly tucked away to work in the Veterinarian Medicine Department of Johns Hopkins. LOL
Some comments from the above link:
“We failed to clarify that Briand’s analyses have not been published, peer-reviewed or verified by outside experts.”
The same can also be said about each and every one of the vaccines being currently developed.
“One way to combat this misinformation is to implement a fact-checking process that involves research from multiple sources.”
That seems to be a big problem in the USA now regardless of the area.
That includes everything from politics, to intelligence, to crime, and even the current election with regard to voting.
“This includes requirements that scientific claims are supported by peer-reviewed sources and are verified by experts in that field.”
Substitute ‘scientific’ with whatever word you want to and the problem is still the same.
“After reading the linked article, my guess is that Dr. Genevieve Briand will be shortly tucked away to work in the Veterinarian Medicine Department of Johns Hopkins”
Why, I thought she had A PhD in ECONOMICS……………
I’ve previously posted before about data from New South Wales.
As a result of the lockdowns here and the various personal hygeine efforts taken such as masks, washing hands, distancing and the fall in the use of public transport, the number of people dying and getting sick from influenza and other respiratory illnesses had taken a huge drop.
Now that the environment has changed, the number of cases is increasing again.
Here are a few statements from the Australian government Department of Health:
“Activity – Following a high start to the 2020 interseasonal period, currently, influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels are lower than average across all systems. At the national level, notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza have substantially decreased since mid-March and remain low.
Impact – Given low case numbers of laboratory-confirmed notifications for influenza, it is likely that there is minimal impact on society due to influenza circulation in the 2020 season.
Severity – There is no indication of the potential severity of the 2020 season at this time. In the year to date, of the 21,266 notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza, 37 (0.17%) laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths have been notified to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).
And for the information you can look at the following report:
The graphs in them clearly show the result of the various preventative measures taken to stop COID-19 have had on the flu during that time period: it has basically disappeared.
I’ll also have to look at road toll deaths in the various states as well. Victoria should have had a huge drop as a result of our travel restrictions and night curfew along with the pubs and restaurants being closed.
So when the total number of deaths from ALL CAUSES is totalled up for 2020 in Australia they will probably be the lowest recorded for years despite the increase in the Australian population.
However, I do expect that over the next few years that that deaths from other causes such as cancer, suicide, etc will have increased.
I’ll have to look at that report in the link and see what the problem with paper and data is.
In that vein, there was an interesting factoid that I came across (no longer remember where): since many people aren’t going to the office in the Bay Area and rush-hour traffic is way below normal, people drive faster on the highways, and the accidents, instead of being fender-benders are now much more severe, with more fatalities. My wife, who drives to work every day on 101 south from San Francisco into Silicon Valley confirms the driving speeds. It used to be a slog. Now she essentially flies to work.
“Why, I thought she had A PhD in ECONOMICS……………”
Doesn’t matter…she will be cleaning dog and cat cages. LOL
Simple question for ya, when was the last time in the US we had a crisis where .gov told the truth?
Not sure what you’re referring to, but Covid cases and deaths are not from the gov. They’re collected and reported by health care providers across the US and collected by John Hopkins University, which publishes the data. This is the data everyone cites.
Don’t worry. All programs will be extended and back tracked after Jan 21 as long as “no cost” printing press keeps going to support the voting base. The train of rationale has left the station for more than 2 decades now.
Right rationale doesn’t keep the value from eroding. Hoping inflation picking up is a mirage with such big national debt.
Thanks for that. I always have the feeling there is something missing with the talking heads on TV blathering about this or that headline number. You know the media have never read the underlying, associated report while the Wall Street hacks just want to use some number to talk up their book. I was having a hard time this go round understanding how these unemployment numbers were “good”, as per the media and Wall Street, just by observing everything else going on, it didn’t make sense…isn’t observation supposed to be what “they”, the Media and Wall Street, are good at? Otherwise, why do we need them?
Related to Wolf prior junk bond post, is the general topic of fixed income and crashing interest rates, as that relates to historical low returns on interest related investments.
With unemployment still a huge concern and thus productivity constraints, chained to super low Treasury rates, next year doesn’t seem like it will have explosive growth and return to normal.
I was looking at FRED for clues and think private investment will be impacted by interest rates linked to lending, thus hindering growth in employment. That seems obvious, but with pandemic exploding and vaccine supply chain issues, how can GDP go up?
(a) Real private inventories, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted (A371RX1Q020SBEA)
The Media provides us with an inverse of GIGO – Garbage In -> Garbage Out. We now have MIRR. Manipulated Inputs -> Required Results.
One word corruption
With some form of UBI (together with a plethora of welfare and entitlement programs we have all come to know and love) on the way eventually these employment stats may become less relevant (and I have always wondered how accurately household survey is vs. payroll report).
Neither survey likely tracks well the underground economy, i.e. ‘off-the-books’ jobs that are doubtless statistically significant (illicit drug distribution and local handymen are among many other ‘enterprises’ as just a few examples).
With Congress salivating at prospect of passing another nearly $1 Trillion stimulus package soon (exact details not released but it looks like infrastructure spending and state/local government grants are in it) I can see a temporary boost to employment in Q1 2021.
Senate has been balking on the Federal unemployment, which is gig workers. In CA the prop that keeps Uber drivers in the gig category passed, but I see a lot of things which got through the ballot process in Nov getting turned over. No not that..
Lots of talk about “fair stimulus”, yet the cure for self-inflicted stimulus complexity is to make the stimulus payment system simple. One idea would be to take each person’s 2019 MAGI (Modified Adjusted Gross Income), and tier a progressive system of paying a higher percentage of stimulus for lower income and make it zero percentage stimulus for anything above $400,000 income. What this would do is basically mimic how the economy played out in 2019, so there would be no need for PPP biz loans, unemployment insurance, etc. Instead the govt tried to write complex laws that pick winners and losers, and it simply ends in tears as there is both fraud and lack of sign up participation due to the unintended complexities of setting up and enrolling in such a system. Make it simple. Make it uniform. Make it fast (note IRS has MAGI and cut the last round of checks). Make it more fraud proof so Tom Brady can not take out $960,855 of PPP loans (note he has made $350 million so far in the NFL, and has a new two year $50 million contract with the Bucs). If 99% of “everyone” gets some money, is that not fair? Else we get winners and losers, with some of the “winners” having bought boats and sports cars and $1200 phones recklessly each year, with many of the “losers” having saved their money for a rainy day, and getting nothing in help from the govt? So do we continue to punish the frugal, responsible citizen, the people who played by the rules while we throw money only at bad luck folks (isn’t that the role of non-for profit?), easy peasy fraud, and those living wel beyond their means? Thus give money to everyone, with the poor getting a much larger percentage of their MAGI than those up to $400,000 per year getting none. How is this not both fair and simple? Why do we want the govt to pick winners and losers? Picking winners and losers is a sure fire way of dividing the country even further…especially when the govt entity who picks those winners and losers will likely abuse the system to buy future votes to remain in power. What govt needs is radical simplification, yet instead it grows and gets more complicated by the second…
Great comment/post IMHO Yort,,,
With Wolf continuing to make wonderfully available information accessible to such as this old person who started reading WS to try to see if there was significant change to the SM and other mkts to be able to invest in something a bit more liquid than the RE mkt, I love it when folks comment on here such as yours above.
Wolf will, apparently, NOT run for POTUS/SecTreas, etc., in spite of many of us encouraging that,,, and I don’t blame him for a second.
Politics has become, once again, the dirtiest of dirty shirts, well below the former champions, used car sales people… POLS, etc., has been such many times in the years of our republic, so far, and likely to be so again and again as the cycles continue…
Radical simplicity of all,,, repeat ALL guv mint activities would, indeed, take USA, and likely the world, to a more equitable position sooner and later, and is really a method/process that will help all of WE the PEEDONS including all of the political and presstitutes currently spouting poisons.
Good points. However, beautifully simple is something bureaucrats will not tolerate.
Vaccine(s) – 95% efficiency !? Hocus -Pocus?
– prevent from getting infected?
-reduces the severity of illness?
-prevents transmission from infected (symptomatic or symptomatic) to thers?
-prevents from getting Re-infected from the same strain?
-produces anti bodies – to last how long?
There is NO answer to any of the above from any of the vaccine companies!
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla says that he is “not certain” that the company’s vaccine will prevent people from carrying and spreading the virus to others.
NBC Thursday night
Doubts on the vaccine reliability. ‘We have no knowledge about whether it prevents you from actually acquiring the infection at all,” Dr. Larry Corey, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.
( B insider)
When there is doubt, there is no doubt!!!
We are being sold something with questionably efficacy and unknown long term effects, and yet the pharmaceutical companies will be absolved of any blame.
But don’t worry, Americans will bend over backwards and take this vaccine because bending over backwards is really something Americans excel in!!!
Pharmaceutical companies already have been absolved of any blame. We legally can not sue them now.
And that’s the best part. We are trusting companies with no liability to create a vaccine.
They already are warning us enough cold storage does not exist to disperse the vaccine.
Small business gets crushed.
Who ever is still complaining about capitalism dont realize Capitalism has been dead the dates can be argued but GFC is one on the timeline for sure.
Bailouts extend and pretend too big to fail federal charters broken. Losers turned into winners main street sold out to wall street none of this is new. The group is famous they have record downloads @the apple store yeah that apple rotten to the core like the big apple.
Look at it this way way, if 60 % of the “believers” take the virus, and others obtain natural immunity, it should be enough to get over it in a couple of years as long as the vaccinations work as good as the people that made their own c19 antibodies. Let’s see how the 60% do. Watch or take it
Actually, I think American have been learning the last two decades how to bend over forward.
95% efficiency and probably 100% 21st century snake oil……………
Seriously, if the people that make the stuff think it is safe, let them all take it first…………………..
So how many state funerals can we expect in the next couple f years?
Lee, the former Presidents will have their Aides take it for them. Remember, Presidents don’t inhale….
And on this note Wolf, I must bid your site goodbye. Your comment section has really degenerated into old people endlessly jaw-jacking conspiracies and political insult nonsense. A real get off my lawn circle jerk.
Wolf, you have a true knack for unique and valuable financial perspectives and a talent for writing. I’d lose the dead weight of these bitter folks. Peace.
Interesting statistical problem if those who are vaccinated can still acquire and transmit the virus, the rate of infection will funnel down to a group which is likely to be 100% infected. Somewhat like Fibonaccis rabbits, only in reverse.
What the hell are you talking about, no answers? The results from the Moderna study were:
94% effective in preventing infection
very (perhaps close to 100%) effective in preventing severe infection
For the other questions, we don’t have the answers yet but can make educated guesses. But the fact is if only 6% of those vaccinated are even susceptible to (mild) illness, after a decent majority of the population is vaccinated, you’ve stopped the virus in its tracks.
I have a bridge designed to be 94% effective.
Would you like to be the first (and last) person to test it?
That is a terrible analogy.
Better: I have designed a seat belt that will save your life in 94% of otherwise fatal car collisions. Will you install it in your car and wear it?
Moreover, the vaccine also provides herd immunity – if 94% of the population gains immunity, the virus dies out (or at least can’t transmit very well), so the other 6% are protected. Also there are people who can’t take vaccines (eg immunocompromised), and herd immunity protects them.
there are too many unknown variables in the 6% figure to make an educated guess. is my guess.
“Moreover, the vaccine also provides herd immunity”
Sorry, but that total and complete 100% unadulterated BS.
“Moreover, the vaccine also provides herd immunity”
That’s what vaccines are supposed to do, especially for very contagious diseases like measles.
“That’s what vaccines are supposed to do……………”
Yes, thats what TRADITIONAL vaccines do.
The various vaccines being produced to combat this new virus have no proven ability to do so.
Maybe instead of being a parrot and repeating the bs in the numerous press releases and not thinking through the various issues with regard to the vaccine……………a course in medicine would help in unerstanding.
Come back and comment upon completion of that training.
All we have are press releases. No peer-reviewed studies. The actual data hasn’t been released yet. We’re practicing “science by press release.”
Vaccine trials generally take years to get good data. This was done in three months.
The efficacy is not the issue. I’d take the vaccine if it’s only 50% effective. I get the flu shot every year, and often it’s less than 50% effective. But the long-term safety of the vaccines needs to be solidly established, and tested, and peer-reviewed because if you give something to 5 billion people and just 1% has serious health issues from it, you’re talking about 50 million people.
Agreed that we only have press releases, but they have the numbers in there. At any rate, by the time ordinary people can take it, we’ll have numbers for efficacy over a longer period of time. But there’s no particular reason to think that immunity would wear off very quickly.
sunny129 was raising questions about efficacy, and claiming that we have “NO answer” for them, and that’s just plain false.
I would have thought the thalidomide disaster of the 50s and 60s would still be in people’s memories. Apparently not.
‘sunny129 was raising questions about efficacy, and claiming that we have “NO answer” for them, and that’s just plain false’
Show me their answer in an UNEQUIVOCAL terms, please!? There is NONE b/c they themselves don’t know!
What does 95% efficiency stands for? Please explain!
In the early 2000’s 80 million prescriptions were written for Vioxx. (I got samples from my GP, but refrained from taking them.) Merck withdrew Vioxx from the market in 2004 (after 5 years) when it was attributed to an estimated 80,000 to 140,000 users developing serious heart disease.
We do know that the vaccines from the 3 major companies that are near FDA approval are 90+% effective in preventing diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in the relatively limited feedback from ongoing clinical trials. This is measured by look at diagnosed case rates for vaccinated people vs unvaccinated control groups. The data now is early but very positive, much better than typical influenza. No one knows how long this efficacy lasts. And yes, some of the questions you pose don’t have answers.
My health system will have Pfizer vaccine Dec 12th. Vaccination is mandatory for providers. Literally every physician and nurse I know is going to be vaccinated, and most of us are also anxious to have our family members vaccinated (less so for children).
This is because the risk of the disease for people in late adulthood is relatively high. Tens of thousands of people have been in the vaccine trials and few to no major side effects are reported. Vaccine side effects are typically immune or autoimmune and are relatively rare. Long term side effects are not typical or likely.
People are free to choose their response to the available alternatives, but I believe you will see most well informed people and a large majority of medical professionals promptly being vaccinated. Unlike the political class advising us to limit social exposure while they visit French Laundry et al, I would lay a large wager that they will be clamoring for vaccination.
Sorry, typo, vaccination is NOT mandatory for my health system…
“Long term side effects are not typical or likely.”
That statement has no basis in fact at all.
There have been no results on on ‘long term effects’ because there is in fact no ‘long term’. A couple of months is not ‘long term’.
I hope that you have no problems with polyethylene glycol (PEG) which we now know is in the Pfizer vaccine.
Plateauing/rolling-over employment levels could become the new normal– labor force participation has been declining for years, with Covid accelerating long term trends.
Many American’s lack a college degree (or have a less-than-useful degree). Consequently, as AI and automation take over basic tasks, expect further bifurcation of the haves and have-nots. UBI, with all of it’s moral hazards, may become a reality. (All the talk of debt forgiveness is just the tip of the iceberg.)
“UBI, with all of it’s moral hazards,”
Folks who would rather sit on the couch every day for years don’t make good workmates. It’s cheaper to pay ’em to stay home and stay out of the way of people trying to get something done.
1) This report end in Nov 14, because next Fri, on Dec 11, the gov
might shutdown. If so :
2) It will lead to a bigger mess in the Jan/Feb job reports.
3) The cluster dots will lurch down, widening their thrust, testing Mar low.
4) The restaurants & the bars are closed, the warehouse temp workers
will let go, on top of a potential gov shutdown, because we must get along.
5) Vaccine illusion might lead to a trading range.
6) Delusions will lead to a lower low.
When historians of the future will look at those times, they will identify the main culprit as “incompetence ” at highest levels. Once we started on the road of equality of outcome for everyone , the die was cast. It didnt matter your accomplishments and merits as long as you fitted the narrative of the day, the end result of that policy was that incompetence started permeating all levels of our society.
One can understand better old Volker how he was obsessed with bringing ethics to public function and providing training for the public servants, he saw the rot before everyone else.
Competence has migrated East and you can see how Asian countries managed to contain the virus although they were the first to deal with it. We had lots of time to prepare, we didn’t because we have become bloated, incompetent and old, our prime time is behind us.
Guess I should start taking lessons from my grandma on how to pinch pennies. She lived through the first Great Depression. Might as well find out what I can while she’s here. Truthfully though, I expect to die at fifty or sixty. I have no retirement plan, since in all likelihood such a luxury will be unavailable to anyone from my generation when we reach the age our parents retired at. My big plan is to just die my way out of this mess. Seems to work as a strategy for the people who created it, so eh, maybe I’ll give it a shot.
OK JG, some hard (anecdotal) information:
Easy peasy to say you will die XXXX whatever,,, not so easy to do so without hurting a lot of your fans, be they friends or family or furry ,,, whatever,,,
Dad did it violently after promising for 20+ years, and a couple other ancestors similar,,, took some family decades to heal,,, and some not healed even yet…
So, if you want to die, suggest you follow long time accepted non violent practice:
Don’t eat for a while, then don’t drink any water for a while, and you will die soon; however, if you get hungry and eat, or get thirsty and drink , the fact is that you don’t want to die or are not ready, so get up and get back to work…
NOT good ”karma” to do yourself violently, far shore!!
Much better to die ”in harness”,,, especially if helping others…
TONS and tons of very well written communications available, now free on net for perusal/study anytime you are ready.
Keep on keeping on, and hang in there,,, this too will pass!!
Earned your pay today, VVNV.
Save a penny a day and you will be surprised how little you will have by the time you retire.
A ‘retirement plan’ which consists of expecting to kick the bucket by age 60 to avoid aging in poverty and misery is one way of coping with life’s uncertainties, I suppose.
Reminds me of that old bromide: it is quite okay to be young and poor, but depressing to be old and poor.
I guess it is altruistic if someone wants to die early to get the heck out of the way of those wanting the ultimate revenge on life– to live well up to a ripe old age and die in bed with a partner half as old.
J.G. it’s probably not too late for you to try to get a job in the government where everything will change for you and life will be great once you reach retirement age. And with some jobs there, you really won’t have anything of importance to do so you can spend each day with little stress.
If you are in California, state gov is”high pay” for even the most trivial of positions. Heck, you can be a lifeguard at the beach for $250K per year. Not bad duty! Plus you get to hang out with some pretty girls!
Sit back and laugh a bit….this too shall pass!
The art of pinching pennies no longer works up here in the great white north.
The government eliminated pennies!
I just want my free $2000 a month. No work, own nothing……nirvana
Me too! However, I am disturbed about the $150 for a Big Mac, fries, and shake.
Me and the rest of the wretched refuse, when you add it up, are paying 40-45% of our gross income to various government taxes……20% income tax, 5% state income tax, Social Security, Medicare, property taxes, 10-12% state sales taxes, gasoline taxes, medical insurance premiums……I could go on
As my income has stayed pretty much stagnant since 1990 (75k year, +/- 10k), I’ve found that over the years I’ve had to eliminate many things from my spending that I used to be able to afford. Im now down to inflated rent in the “big city where the jobs are”, food, a paid-for six year old car, a twenty year old truck, and a week long vacation every five years or so
Meantime the top 10%ers are given/bribe legislators to give them all kinds of ways to dodge taxes (I know a retired billionaire who has one accountant on the staff whose job is personal tax avoidance for Mr retired billionaire. Like how many days he can live in Palm Springs/year. Or the Colorado condo. Or the mansion in low tax Flyover. Or the house in Texas near the grandkids.
(This is the same guy who told me “Dont let the door hit you in the ass on the way out” when I brought up the subject of a pay raise during Performance Appraisal #3)
Of course, there are those who say that allowing the wretched refuse to have enough money to be “consumers” is bad for the Earth. Dont worry. The life expectancy rate is dropping, and will be accelerating.
My nominal salary has also been stable to slightly down for 15 years, which is to say with inflation, my pay has been cut about 40%
The people that like free stuff are 100% behind another stimulus. Hey, I’ll take another burst of 1.2k before we go into the dollar collapse crapper. I would rather have a monetary policy and an economy that would PRODUCTIVELY yield 3% on time deposits. Ain’t a snow balls chance in hell that’ll happen.
There’s a lot of stress right now.
A package delivery driver was speeding down my street where children play. I was walking on the sidewalk and motioned for him to slow down. He stopped the truck in the street, gets out of the vehicle as if to pick a fight, then says “you got some kind of problem?”. I said “You are driving too fast. This is a residential street”. He says “I have a job to do”. I responded, “safety is part of your job”. He then sums up his thoughts nicely by saying, “I don’t give a fxxx about that. Mind your own business”.
Sign on Street:
Trust The Science
F = ma
… and even more apropos: E=mv
The Big Plan…ultimately technology puts every last human out of work so they can have everything they need and want for free. They can have every app and service and subscription and it will all be paid for regardless of the cost. Okay, that is no,going to happen. So, what was the point of running up all this b.s. debt for tech crap over several decades if none of it will be affordable when job losses start piling up? What was the point in increasing incomes if there will be nothing left but monthly fees, unserviceable debts, and a crashing economy? How do you rollback the excess to a point where it made sense? What corporations will accept the need to reduce the prices on goods and services and stop asking people to buy the next unnecessary level of technology that just drives up costs and debts…fat chance? No, it’s all delusional and will likely continue on until everything goes into the toilet. Maybe the government will pay the ongoing sewage fees?
When you lose your job nothing is affordable. When you have a job you get to pay the sewer, water, gas, elec, prob tax, HOA, transport fees.
The cool AI and app fees, those are for the cool kids.
The rich will always require servants.
Tradition economy through 1970’s…yes. But even the servants are being replaced bit by bit. The whole pyramid rests on debts and cross subsidies supported by a load of projections of demand near the bottom, and that is now in jeopardy, prevented only by deferments and social spending which could falter. So this may be the start of Crumble-up. No rich, no cool kids, not even a pizza guy at the door as the incomes run out and the spending stops. I know people have become comfortable believing that it can’t happen again, but it might be a good time to begin facing the situation we have put ourselves in…the rich and the headless leaders don’t seem to grasp the real severity of the baloon out of control & leaving Kansas.
The inverse of “trickle down economics” is trickle up poverty.
Our problem is that the rich no longer employ a sufficient number of personal servants.
Dec 5, 2020 at 8:31 pm
“There’s a lot of stress right now.”
You should see this place. Suburban Washington DC Metro area.
People are so stressed out here and they are taking their frustrations out on the road. The kind of jobs being created are contributing to the problem.
I’ve had to put “Student Driver” stickers on my cars to keep maniacs from tailgating and running me off the road. Courtesy has gone out the window. Running stop signs and making left turns in front of you without yielding or signaling have become the norm. A lot of contractors are tearing down homes in residential neighborhoods generating horrendous construction vehicle traffic. Uber drivers, and grocery delivery trucks and drivers are seen speeding through residential streets where children are riding bikes and walking. Schools are still closed so there are more children around all day. I put up some commercial grade speed limit signs (15MPH) on the telephone poles at strategic locations. Didn’t change a thing. The funny thing is, I don’t have school age kids and the parents here with the kids just don’t give a damn. I talked to several parents about the problem and they give a blank stare as if to say “what are you bothering me about this crap”. AAA motor club just rated this metro area as having the worst drivers and the highest accident rate in the entire USA., just beating out Miami, Boston and Baltimore. They are right on the money.
I had to scrap my last Car, a Nissan Sentra, because it was hit 9 times by other drivers (5 hit & run)
Since the Covid crisis things have gotten worse, much worse.
Victoria is the tailgating cap of Australia. Lots of road rage here too that actually results in violence. That is a recent happening which we hardly heard about ten years ago along with the increase in car jackings as well.
First time in 8 months I drove down to the club – a 45 kilometer trip one way. The freeway was so so crowded, but there were a huge number of lane changers, but not so many people doing the usual tailgaiting.
Speed limit here on the freeway is 100 kph. Big roads are 80 kph which can change to 70kph. Normal roads are 60kph, residential 50 kph and then school zones 40kph.
And some places you can find highways at 110 kph and ‘rural’ roads at 90kph.
And then there are the temp construction restrictions which are usually 40 kph.
When passing a stopped police car or emergency services vehicle the speed limit automatically falls to 40 kph.
Speeding is norm on the freeways and there are the usuall a**holes that speed, change lanes, and tailgate.
It used to be okay to drive around the place, but with the huge increase in population well, I guess that increased the number of idiots on the road and the fact that a lot of the people come from foreign countries and have different ‘driving styles’ which they brought with them………….
You are a patient person Mad Dog. I just scatter a bunch of small caltrops in the street from time to time. Slows ’em down. Careful though, some places they are against the law.
Here’s the guidance from our local County government regarding face coverings.
Seems reasonable. I see all of the people in my area pretty much following this to the letter. Then why are the infections going up?
INDOOR WEARING OF FACE COVERINGS
Face coverings must be worn in businesses, office buildings, and other establishments open to the public.
A face covering is not required if you are:
Actively eating or drinking.
Receiving dental services, shaving, or facial treatments or receiving another service requiring access to your face, mouth, or head.
Swimming or engaged in another physical activity where the use of a face covering would pose a bona fide safety risk.
Under the age of 18 and are engaged in vigorous sports – as recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
Unable to wear a face covering due to a medical condition or disability, or are physically unable to remove a mask.
Unable to wear a wearing a face covering because it impedes communication by, or with, persons who have a hearing impairment or other disability, where the ability to see the mouth is essential for communication.
At work and the equipment required for the job does not enable you to wear a mask or wearing a mask would endanger public safety.
Alone in your office or vehicle.
The new face covering guidelines outlined in the Health Directive are designed to help protect residents and reduce the spread of COVID-19. Residents are strongly urged to wear a mask whenever they are in public places and may encounter others. Whether you are out walking or jogging, wearing a mask when you are likely to be within six feet of someone, even if it is solely in passing, is required.
Wonder if it gives the same effect as altitude training? I won’t have to run Magnolia Road by Boulder with the Buffalos to hit the big time.
some of the sickness going around is caused by a virus, some is not. worried? no, heightened sense of concern .. maybe .. do you feel that? .. oh shit. ‘down with the sickness, dawn of the dead version’ maybe not for the squeamish.
The other political party is destroying America as we know it! We must stop them! They are for corn so I am against corn! Wait…I mean they are against corn so I am for corn! Or maybe I had it right the first time! I’m not sure! In any case, I am for good things and they are for bad things! There! Are you all with me! We must stop them now! Who is with me!
Ha, HaI hear ya. I’m against corn, and for corn. I am for it
when I eat it-taste good, and against it the second time I see it.
You know what is a better stimulus than money-printing? Starvation!
Taking the vaccine. I am going to wait. Too many unknowns. I am now after four years of fighting Lyme finally have a healthy body back. No way I am
Jeopardizing this on an untested vaccine.
Profits and money are propelling this forward like a moonshot. I have known people to be ruined by the vaccines we have now. My immune system is recovering
As it is. This reminds me of the twin towers clean up. Gov Whitman in charge of the EPA at the time assured ALL of us it was SAFE to go into the clean up. We all know how that worked out for those thousands who did over the years. I hope she has nightmares. I plan to keep hunkering as long as it takes for me to determine whether it’s safe or not. It’s a hell of a lot easier to follow the protocols now than to became an invalid. Been there done that
It really really really sucks bigly
“The progress of globalization – of corporate America outsourcing labor to cheap countries…” is ignored even here in the comments. I believe the corner has been turned, no going back. Corporations and their partner China are too powerful now.
Instead of promoting through trade agreements and some regulation global worker and basic human rights in the last 25 years, our ‘Leaders’ have gone along with corporate America to exploit impoverished conditions in other countries. Many of the goods we use are made through unseen child labor and forced labor in horrific conditions.
Now, as labor continues to be out-sourced, in this pandemic, we’re rapidly getting a taste of things to come. Corporate America doesn’t need you, citizens. They will, however, be glad to accept what is left in our dying bank accounts.
John Perkins outlined the ‘game’ long ago.
Full circle back to origin.
“Well, there’s people and more people
What do they know, know, know
Go to work in some high rise
And vacation down at the Gulf of Mexico
And there’s winners and there’s losers
But they ain’t no big deal
‘Cause the simple man, baby
Pays for thrills
The bills the pills that kill”
Ain’t that America – John Mellencamp
The western world won’t agree. The export and surplus from china just hit 3year high. The whole stay-at-home order and free $ just make people buy more tangible stuff.
1)The vaccine doesn’t stop infection.
2)The virus enters your body, remains dormant, and then the vaccine wears off.
3) You get vaccinated and party down. You are immune to the symptoms only.
4) The first wave of people vaccinated infect those who didn’t get the vaccine. At what level of public vaccination do we end lockdowns?
5) The vaccinated group begins to develop auto-immune disorders, ICUs oveflow with new Covid (unvaccinated people) and people suffering side effects. Political firestorm over who gets treatment.
6) 1/3 of America dies, 1/3 has permanent health problems
7) DOW 40K
8. The other 1/3 get government jobs with great retirement and health benefits.
9. Dow 50K
All correct except the Dow part. Surely it’s 500K we are talking about?
More controversies :
Former Pfizer vice president and scientific director Dr. Michael Yeadon and German lung specialist and parliamentarian Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg have filed an urgent application with the European Medicine Agency calling for the immediate suspension of all SARS-CoV-2 vaccine studies – particularly the BioNtech/Pfizer study on BNT162b (EudraCT number 2020-002641-42).
The vaccinations are expected to produce antibodies against spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2. However, spike proteins also contain syncytin-homologous proteins, which are essential for the formation of the placenta in mammals such as humans. It must be absolutely ruled out that a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 could trigger an immune reaction against syncytin-1, as otherwise infertility of indefinite duration could result in vaccinated women.
The mRNA vaccines from BioNTech/Pfizer contain polyethylene glycol (PEG). 70% of people develop antibodies against this substance – this means that many people can develop allergic, potentially fatal reactions to the vaccination.
Wind & rain & sun .. the natural elements can wear away a mountain.
So to can the unstoppable force .. because .. in motion .. it has an energy field .. move the unmoveable object.
Victoria road toll deaths in 2020 are down 19.5% compared to 2019 to date.
Melbourne has seen a 25% drop so far this year compared to 2019. Rural Victoria which wasn’t subject to the same severe lockdowns only had a 15% drop.
One area that did increase to date was a 44% increase in bicyclist deaths which I guess was to be expected with the huge increase in bike usage during the lockdown which exempted them as it was ‘exercise’.
So another instance where the efforts to mitigate COVID-19 resulted in fewer deaths in other areas.
Current tests of Covid with PCR is raising more questions! Is positive means, clinically sick and or able to transmit the virus!? Is one expose to low or high dose of virus? No satisfactory fron the current tests, without
Cycle Threshold’ Data In COVID Tests!
“..with regard to our current “casedemic”, positive tests as they are counted today do not indicate a “case” of anything. They indicate that viral RNA was found in a nasal swab. It may be enough to make you sick, but according to the New York Times and their experts, probably won’t. And certainly not sufficient replication of the virus to make anyone else sick. But you will be sent home for ten days anyway, even if you never have a sniffle..”
Apparently bankers and traders have been classified as essential workers and will be some of the first in line to receive the vaccine!!! ROFL. There’s justice in the universe after all.
My recommendation is to throw this Jobs Report out. It is just noise. The Census Bureau laid off hundreds of thousands of people in October. Many of them were part-timers who won’t show up in Unemployment figures because they are not looking for other jobs or because they already have other jobs.
But others (like me) are out of work until we find something new. In just my Area Census Office (ACO) we laid off almost 80 full time employees in the space of two weeks. Multiply that by hundreds of ACOs (to say nothing of the hundreds of thousands of part-timers who WILL be looking for new work) and you can see the size of the headwinds.
Obviously we need to bring in more foreign workers to increase employment and wages.
I live is a small isolated town where tourism jobs replaced resource based jobs a long time ago. Our local businesses have been hurt. Walmart is even hurt without tourism.
I am proud to say I just finished Christmas shopping and i bought everything locally. I will finish wrapping and have plenty of time to send snail mail. I forgot how much fun it was to do this with my husband. We have been ordering on amazon or sending a check.
Wolfe asked about month ago what private landlords, not big companies, are doing during the pandemic with empty apartments and rental delinquencies. We have 3 rentals. They are one of our retirement income plans to help keep up with inflation. One unit in a duplex has a long term tenant, is occupied, and covid relief is paying his rent. The other unit in the duplex has been empty since August 1. We are not renting it during the pandemic for two reasons. First is to protect us from exposure to covid. Less people in our bubble. Secondly it will be difficult to evict people. The courts are going to be inundated with backlog, and I dont want to take the chance of getting a disruptive, or destructive tenant. The third unit is in a different state. We are leaving it open for family members that may need a place after the eviction moratorium is lifted. They lost their jobs, and may never catch up. The family may need a helping hand. We do not receive any money from covid relief for the two empty units. The reason we can do this is because we have sweat equity in our home and our rentals and my husband knows how to save.