Indexes backed off sharply into the close. Dow gave up 800 points of its 1,600-point spike. Nasdaq -1.5%. Oil soared. Gold & silver dropped. 10-Year Treasury went rogue.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Upon the announcement this morning of some tidbits on a preliminary study of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine, all heck broke loose in the financial markets, with investors piling into in various things and fleeing other things, and wholesale-abandoning certain things, amid reports of outages at online brokers Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, TD Ameritrade, Vanguard, and others, where traders couldn’t log into their apps, and couldn’t make the trade of their lifetime.
And that might have saved them some money, because after the surge in the morning, stocks gave up much of it, and the Nasdaq ended up 1.5% in the red.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked 1,600 points in the morning out of the gate, to 29,933. But then it zigzagged lower and in the last 20 minutes swooned 400 points, ending the day up 834 points, or 2.95%, having given up nearly 800 points from the morning spike.
The S&P 500 Index spiked 137 points to 3,646 before giving up over two-thirds of it, and ending the day at 3,550, up a mere 1.2%.
The Nasdaq was not amused.
The Nasdaq, which contains many of the Pandemic winners, never got the hang of the spike in the morning, dropped into the red, and ended the day down 1.5%. Notably, among the Pandemic winners:
- Zoom Video communications [ZM]: -17.4%
- Netflix [NFLX]: -8.6%
- Amazon [AMZN]: -5.1%
- Facebook [FB]: -5.0%
- Nvidia [NVDA]: -6.4%
- Apple [AAPL]: -2.0%
- Microsoft [MSFT]: -2.4%
- Tesla [TSLA]: -2%
- Alphabet [GOOG], to show that not everything on the Nasdaq was dropping, was essentially unchanged.
There was enormous bloodletting in certain corners of the pharma and biotech space among the Covid-19 “vaccine stocks,” Covid-19-treatment stocks, and cancer treatment stocks, including:
- Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings [ARCT], a vaccine stock: -45.4%
- 180 Life Sciences [ATNF], a SPAC wanting to acquire a company in the healthcare industry: -38.1%
- Ocuphire Pharma [OCUP], a cancer biotech still working its potential drugs: -37.3%
- Altimmune [ALT], a vaccine stock: -37.1%
- Humanigen [HGEN], a Covid-treatment stock: -32.0%
- Vaxart [VXRT], a vaccine stock: -31.6%
- Leap Therapeutics [LPTX], working on cancer treatments: -30.5%
- Biogen [BIIB]: -28.2%
- Quidel, a vaccine stock: -28.2%
Biogen got its shares knocked down 28.2% today, after trading had been halted all day Friday, due to an FDA panel smack-down Friday evening of the Alzheimer’s drug Biogen was trying to revive after writing it off last year. This follows a 44% spike on Wednesday. Today’s plunge put the shares back where they’d first been in November 2013, with Wednesday’s spike and today’s plunge forming an epic double-WTF chart.
Huge winners in many sectors, particularly those beaten half to death:
After Pfizer announced the Covid-vaccine news, its shares [PFE] jumped 15% out the gate and then gave up half of those gains and closed the day up 7.7%, at $39.20.
There were big gains in numerous sectors, including travel, entertainment, restaurants, mall REITs, retailers, energy, and so on. Just some examples:
- Delta Air Lines [DAL]: +17%.
- Sabre [SABR], which provides software-as-a-service to the airline and hospitality industry: +40.1%
- Carnival Corp [CCL], the largest cruise line: +39.3%.
- Norwegian Cruise Line [NCLH]: +26.7%. After the market closed, it reported a quarterly loss of $677 million, as revenue collapsed 99.6% to near-nothing ($6.5 million), from $1.9 billion a year ago.
- Simon Property Group [SPG], the largest mall REIT in the US: +27.9%. But then after-hours, it released its earnings report, which was rougher than expected, with total revenues falling 25%, and its shares re-dropped over 7%.
- Even CBL & Associates, which filed for bankruptcy on November 1, saw its penny stock [CBLAQ] skyrocket by 46%, but it remains near-worthless at around $0.03 a share.
- Macy’s [M] jumped 22% out the gate, then gave up part of it and closed +17%.
- AMC [AMC], largest cinema chain in the US, and flirting with running out of money this year: +51%, from $2.50 yesterday to $3.77 today.
- Sundial Growers, a cannabis penny-stock [SNDL] exploded by 83% to $0.46 a share. OK…
- Chef’s Warehouse [CHEF]: + 43%. The company supplies fine-dining restaurants and others with specialty food products, and the hope is that vaccinated people are going to go out to restaurants again.
- Texas Roadhouse [TXRH]: +10.7%
- Darden Restaurants [DRI]: +18.1%.
The price of crude oil soared, with WTI up over 10% at one point, hitting $41 – because instantly everyone in the business world would start flying across the globe and commuting to the office once again – before backing off.
Energy stocks jumped in lockstep. For example, Exxon Mobil [XOM] +12.7%, Chevron [CVX] +11.6%, and Texas shale-oil driller Concho Resources [CXO]: +14.5%.
Long-term Treasury securities went rogue. Prices dropped and yields spiked. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 26 basis points, from 0.70% to 0.96% at the close, the highest close since the turmoil in March. As long-term Treasury prices dropped, long-term Treasury bond funds and ETFs dropped along with them. For example, the SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF [SPTL] fell 2.0% today.
Gold and silver got hammered down. Gold fell over 5% at settlement, to $1,864 per troy ounce, the lowest since July. Gold had had a great multi-year run until early August, when it reached $2,089. Silver dropped 7.6% during the day, settling at $23.70 per ounce.
After hours. Index futures of the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq are all slightly in the red at the moment. WTI is down 2%, trading at $39.47. Gold is ticking up. And silver is up 2.3%. Beyond Meat, manufacturer of fake meat, plunged 28% in after-hours trading to $108 at the moment, after having dropped 4.0% during the day, after reporting a loss of $19 million, on just $94 million in revenues. The minuscule company still has an inexplicable market cap of about $6.9 billion at the after-hours share price. What a day!
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Everybody’s in. Let’s see if 6-7 Trillion in Biden bucks can save it.
got .. to …. raise ….. prices
That will not happen, because it is far from certain that the Senate will be under his control. Also, I am certain that the over-leveraged, weak, poorly run companies that populated the economy even before Covid 19 could not be saved even with such sums, which I do not believe will be sent on regular companies anyway.
Banksters will receive most of the money, via their “Federal” Reserve bank cartel. The good news is that now, apparently there may be a treatment for what ails so many of them which can be compelled. See “Scientists identified genetic factors of psychopathy and pointed out a potential new treatment” in Technology.org.
As usual, some people got richer today and other people got poorer.
Powell’s busy hitting the Order button, but in the end you can’t beat algo trading ;)
Five people in the world each worth more than $100 billion. I guess they bring the averages up.
Bubble stocks sold into strength. Can’t blame them. Small caps set new high.
I mean if Biden gets his way, we might be looking into a shutdown. How would small stocks benefit?
My comment on this is awaiting moderation. What will stop Uncle Joe from printing few trillions for the green new deal. All will go to the 1% again. It’s what UniParty wants.
Well wouldn’t he need the Senate? Last time I looked, it’s still under Rep’s control?
Have Republicans ever turned down free money?
Yeah they have. I mean otherwise they would have done a YUGGGEEEE stimulus bill already.
They printed $3 Trillion in as many months. They won’t stop.
Political peace is purchased by splitting the loot taken from the party not in the room.
I agree that TRILLIONS will be printed, but not in the matter you described. Not unless the Senate changes hands, but if not, the Reps will make a stand. D spent a ton of money in some areas, and they still lost. So yeah Reps know how their bread’s buttered.
There will not be any Green New Deals as long as Reps control the Senate. But there might be a ton of money to rescue the market if it ever crashes again.
Come on guys!
The Election Have NOT being called yet!
unless you prescribe to the MSM’s theory that “they’re “ and Not the Judiciary and the houses in charge of calling the winner!
Also, the 70 million who voted for POTUS won’t be extremely happy about that.
My suggestion, wait for December realignment!!
Let me call the elections for you. Here it is, the gazillionaires have won and the rest of us have lost, as usual, period, full stop. Were you expecting some kind of surprise like an international virus?
It’ll be WAR.They all seem to vote for it whether D or R.
a and BS,
BS wins,,, that is exactly as it is today and has been for so many years and centuries it is not worth discussing as reality.
What might be, and I keep tons of hopium IS, IS being discussed by those in that category, ( uniparty, oligarchy, whatever,) is that WE,,, ALL of WE are in this together in at least that WE ALL occupy the same globe, now being reduced in time and, thus, size every day that the global awarenesses on the web, etc., continue…
Time and enough for real conservatives to vote and to vote again and again, a la others, to expand the freedoms of internet’ face to face digital;; and safe and secure face to face others at all levels; (( said safe ”absolute” until and if WE ALL decide to deride and destroy safeness to the point of us all carrying guns as in 19XX era of ”gangsters” and ”molls”
Classic quote from Al Capone era gangster, ” Here’s $100,,, go buy yourself an outfit.” OK, some, just somewhat edited…
Because if we have a shutdown that works, and is accompanied by and followed by the basics like: universal mask wearing, well-run testing and tracing, etc. then the virus should recede enough to allow for some semblance of normality. Instead we’re seeing headlines like El Paso requiring “mobile morgues”.
It’s the afterwards that matter. We shutdown a couple of months ago too, but cases are HIGHER now. There’s no way you’ll put this genie back into the bottle.
Areas that are now most impacted actually voted for T. Yeah go check it out. That tells you everything you need to know. What next? Fines for people who refuse to wear a mask? Who’s going to enforce it?
In any given geographical area, you look up the number of ICU beds available, and then compare it with the number of ICU beds actually used for Covid patients. Very few. My own area has about 490 beds available, only 4-5 used at any given time. Don’t debate this with me, just look up the figures.
Sure, Sit23, on the CDC site I can see a state-by-state breakdown of %age of occupied ICU beds. It looks like we have several over 70%:
This is by state, so particular areas within those will be higher.
In China and the other Asian countries, anybody who tests positive goes into quarantine. So do the people who were in close contact with an infected person. Everybody has an app in their phone that allows tracking and notification. You can’t go anywhere without it. Quarantine consists of hotels that were commandeered for the purpose. It is not voluntary or self-directed. You cannot leave your room, and there is a cop on the premises 24/7. In America and Europe, if you test positive, they send you home to infect your family. This is not a quarantine. My nephew in NYC tested positive about 3 weeks ago. They sent him home to “quarantine”. He has a wife and 2 small children.
Absent a potent vaccine and 350 million doses of it, America will not check the spread of the virus until it learns to separate the sick from the well.
Those are the % of beds currently in use, but can you see anywhere what % was generally in use pre-pandemic?
I know that there are sources in the UK that have said that the % in use there now isn’t much different to pre-pandemic.
re: “Absent a potent vaccine and 350 million doses of it, America will not check the spread of the virus until it learns to separate the sick from the well.”
Make that 700 million doses; all the potential vaccines I’ve heard about require a 2-shot regimen, with a very specific interval between the two (e.g. 21 days). But, you can subtract the anti-vaxxers–times 2–who’ll refuse to get the shot. Because ‘freedom.’
Actually, let’s go through a two to three months lock dow.
But let’s be serious on the lock down, air travel mostly need to stop, no bars, no restaurants, none of the places where people can congregate in large numbers. Cops need to enforce travel restrictions, think Melbourne. No more than 5 miles from place of residence if you live in a city or suburbs. Something larger if it’s rural.
If it’s an executive order on day 1. That should stop the virus through the worst of winter.
Supreme court is probably going to punch Penn. supreme court in the mouth for writing legislation on voting for president. My prediction is market is going to get nervous when the legal decisions start getting made and chaos looks likely.
This is reasonable behavior for shares untethered from reality. Up 20, down 20 and neither move is justified. Powell’s bazaar. I’m happy because I let some dogs go free and even got paid.
“These violent delights have violent ends
And in their triumph die, like fire and powder
Which, as they kiss, consume”
William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet
90% effective vaccine announced right before the first market open since Biden victory is proclaimed. The elites have perfect timing.
Well, Trump was going to lower drug prices right?
Proclaimed by WHO?!
wait for the NORMAL LEGAL PROCESS to take place, and don’t jump too fast.
Be like ( Bead Blonde) , benefit from the opportunity to let your( dogs) Free.
Keep you powder dry otherwise, this will get very very interesting!!
Whom? CNN, MSNBC, the official election arbiters. It was official as soon as started crying on the air.
Actually, if dogs are something like GE, it could time to buy those.
Andy – The news media does not call elections. They only project self-importance. The elections are not final until the individual states call them and I’m not aware that any have been declared. Gore did not transfer power for 37 days and that was with only one state being disputed. Patience grasshopper.
This is some pure comedy gold right there….the all wise market must know something we don’t or they are forward looking into the next century to support this kind of gain. Another two big gainers for today you didn’t mention. Nordstrom and Macys both up double digits, one up 25% and the other 17% cause you know traditional retail business is going to come back stronger than ever.
Even CBL & Associates, which filed for bankruptcy on November 1, saw its penny stock [CBLAQ] skyrocket by 46%, but it remains near-worthless at around $0.03 a share.
I think Monkey Business nailed it with the Algo comment.
Pfizer reported preliminary reports from their trials and everybody acts surprised. They probably should wait for the FDA review and final approval. By the time it’s finally approved Joe Biden and his Dem confederates in various state capitols will have the country on lockdown. We’re not out of the woods yet.
There is no lockdown coming not approved with State Govs. Keep slobbering
I think the optimism is the 90% number. If I remember correctly you want to hit a little over 60% total to really knock down the virus so if 70% of people take a 90% effective virus you have hit 63% a homerun.
It’s 90% of people taken from an incomplete dataset that is based on people not getting covid symptoms according to the BBC. In previous trials ( phase 1 and 2) of this mRNA vaccine, the age of the test group was 18 to 55. As a scientific researcher I know that if I started giving presentations with incomplete datasets and using test samples of people that are not in an age group that is likely to have serious issues and then claim a 90% success rate I would be ridiculed by people at the end of the presentation.
That’s true. Every profession has different standards for data. Engineers usually need high, but less rigorous data than a scientist.
I think CEO’s are trained to make important decisions with the available data at hand and still be able to sleep at night.
No mention about people of color in the trial? They are twice as likely to die once they get the virus. WH had another superspreader event, Meadows, et al, and Ben Carson? Any odds on which one makes a full recovery?
Test group 18-55? Their risk of getting really sick from C-19 is relatively small, unless they have a co-morbidity, or genetic issues, when it comes to their immune system.
What we really need is something for the vulnerable groups; the elderly, as well as people with co-morbidities. And they most likely, haven’t been included in the trials. As far as I know, age, sex, and other factors can make a significant difference, when it comes to medicine. If you’re going to roll out something like this, on an unprecedented scale, you have to take that into account.
I’m getting rather frustrated by the idea of fixing everything with a vaccine. Promoting a healthier diet (vitamin D!) , and lifestyle, would have been much more powerful, especially long-term. But no, we just keep on supporting big pharma, instead of fixing structural problems. My opinion is that lock-downs have only created more damage, which will only come up in the longer term.
Isn’t this just a reversal of covid panic?
All work-from-home, shop-from-home tech stonx – zoom, nflx, amzn got the beatings.
All in-person stonx reversed their fortune – travel companies, ride shares, indoor businesses – Expedia, Uber, AMC…
Why is it that you can’t spell ‘stocks’ correctly?
stawks, stonx, all the same thing; pure disdain.
YellenBux, same category.
Just what I’ve been saying. After the pandemic, companies like zoom won’t be minting money any more. Amazon won’t be the only retailer. People will drive and fly again. Go to movies and hotels.
It happened sooner than I expected, but the market always looks 6-9 months ahead. This was the “back to normal” trade with an extra shot of short covering/killing.
It’s going to take alot longer than that to recover, many/most people will have long term/permanently changed their spending behaviors. Alot of jobs will be automated too. Zoom could easily be replaced by some other app/website though, nothing special about Zoom.
Right now, that market has sky high valuations that only go up, until it won’t.
I don’t see any way the market can double from here over the next ten years. They already have real GAAP earnings yield down to just over 3% on Sp500. Just don’t think you can QE enough to get people to buy SP500 with earnings yield at 1.5%. That is Japan bust level and I have to think that we will bust before then.
Market could double. But just image the hell living in the inflationary conditions that will cause it.
I don’t know about doubling, but, in theory, the stock market could crash. But meanwhile, the euro could crash and it will become obvious China has peaked. What that means is that money could flow out of Europe and Asia into America, more specifically, the stock market. Attempts to buy up American real estate could lead to pushback and that may not be an option for most foreigners.
This does seem very possible, so I could see the stock market crashing and then hitting an even higher peak. After that though, down is the only way it could go with no one left to save it. The whole situation might end up saving the hiippies generation retirement accounts. It might setup generation X for failure though. That will depend on political environment.
Thomas, *market* doesn’t have sky high valuations if you exclude a single digit number of tech darlings. The value sector is cheap/hated and paying nice dividends.
actually heathcare is the best fwrd pe right now to buy…Financials second
Didnt anyone hear? There is a vaccine?
In exchange that obviously means that people will take the shot and instantly have fed dollars added into their accounts to go to macerich malls simon malls because they wont shop at Amazon anymore you know it’s not like that’s been some sought of trend over the last few years?
Of course millions of small business that have been shattered will all magically reappear and open their door once again so people can all go enjoy the cruise ships once again?
I mean maybe Europe under lockdown is a magical place to visit right now?
And of course because we are told its 90% effective doesnt mean in anyway that narrative might change at any givven moment?
The problem with malls is that alot of the best stores moved out to strip malls and malls have become pretty much only clothing. Lotta people out there spending money on restaurants and cell phones, instead of clothes, combine all this with less money to spend overall after cost of living adjustments and you have the real reasons mall are going bye bye. Also, the average American is getting “alot bigger” and that does typically mean they care less about looks.
Amazon doesn’t sell anywhere near enough clothes to be responsible for the demise of malls.
Also, screw the cruise ships. Never trusted them and they are bad for the environment, economy, basically everything. River cruise ships possibly excluded.
Yep. I own the big outlet REIT. It has kept it’s investment grade rating throughout crisis. Their quarterly revenue is down 15% from same quarter last year. That’s a combo of weaker rent around 6%, reduced occupancy around 2% and a few other things. But because it is outdoor style, foot traffic is just about back to normal.
Strategy before covid was to diversify away from clothing and that is on going. Overall they snap backed a lot quicker than I had modeled.
This quarter was profitable and cash flow was $0.44 for the quarter. At stock market lows this year the stock price dropped to $4.05 so it was at give away price and short interest 50%. It’s $8 now, but before covid price was $15 so time will tell if they can get back to that price.
Mall rent is very expensive compared to strip centers.
The Fed’s PPT is what nailed it…big time!
Carnival up almost 40%
this is pure manipulation…won’t be surprised if the markets drop if not tomorrow then in the next few weeks at most.
New car sales promotion time-“Our wheels will be somewhat guaranteed to stay on the axels 90%* of the time provided the road is perfect (*less fine print)”. The faux flesh guys seem to raise the real question here, “Where’s the Beef?”.
When you look up the definition of “cherry pick”, there is a picture of Pfizer in the dictionary.
I’m a bit puzzled by the mirror image reverse of Nasdaq vs Dow. I get Zoom getting clipped, but thought euphoria (however overdone) would include everything ex. safe haven gold.
Didn’t you get the memo? The pandemic is over. A miracle cure has been discovered. Who needs Zoom videoconferencing now or Peloton bikes to work out at home or Chegg online education or eBay?
I’m just waiting for Bill Gates to inject himself with this live on national tv and then sit in a glass box in the middle of Times Square David Blaine style so the public could observe him for side effects.
“I’m just waiting for Bill Gates to inject himself with this live on national tv and then sit in a glass box in the middle of Times Square David Blaine style so the public could observe him for side effects.”
I second your call for our LAB RAT BG
To be made to swallow his medicine in public. Great comment :)
gold was just the banker cartel doing its NFP knock down…..
Gold will be at 2600 and people will finally take notice next year…..then the real move to 3-4K
1. There is no green new deal. Biden doesn’t support it nor 75% of dems. Grow up people.
2. There is no vaccine coming soon and this one is farther away than the others.
3. More money is coming whether you like it or not. That doesn’t mean much when money destruction is coming to credit markets with normalizing credit flows.
I listen to some progressive media and it seems like there is a big push to get carbon neutral pretty quickly throughout the world. If Dems control senate I bet green new deal is a go. Odds of that are low.
Vaccine is mainly needed for high risk people, which probably will be started around year end.
Green New Deal is one of the biggest Democratic paradoxes. How do you save the environment while regressively taxing those you claim to be protecting? I know, put them all on welfare after the fall out and keep them in your debt forever.
Or high risk vaccine for people of low importance. I can’t imagine that people who won’t eat GMO foods will take a GMO vaccine? Organic nutrition and holistic medicine trend toward higher income groups, where secularism predominates. Plebs think they are going to heaven, we know better and cling to every last dollar and moment of life.
Prez acts brave about catching virus then takes miracle drug not generally available.
Wake me up when Asia begins push to carbon neutral?
So far it seems the only effect of Western nations “going neutral” has been to shift the production and pollution to China etc, and surrender their ability to rapidly manufacture our own necessities when the unexpected (but easily anticipated based on SARS and H1N1) COVID pandemic hit.
If the carbon neutral push isn’t truly global, then isn’t it basically unilateral economic disarmament dressed up in feel-good language?
As a backdrop to all this irrational exuberance in the markets is the pending litigation for the presidential election where the president Trump, claiming the election was stolen, is attempting to basically do just that, steal the election. This is quite likely to throw a wet towel on things. Aside from all the profit taking and short covering, this might help partially explain the 50% sell off in the afternoon. Time to fasten the seat belt, since this could become a rough ride.
It seems like this is under appreciated. In my opinion the mail in voting activities pushed the limits of what was can be certified as a secure election process and it’s all going to the courts. It does matter what anyone believes it’s going to be what plays out in courts over the next 4 weeks.
Oops doesn’t matter…
Of course there is no evidence that mail in ballots are less secure than in person. But don’t let facts get in your way.
At one point T, amidst all the rest of it, was saying that only in person, election DAY votes should be valid. Which would exclude the overseas military vote, among all others overseas.
Moving on, this bizarre 2 month transition could really be dangerous with this joker.
Sec Def just fired by tweet (how’s that for a transition!) the fourth to go. There is currently no direction at the Defense Dept.
CNN’s biggest idea of a worry is that T might pull troops out of Afghanistan.
But what if it’s not the US making the move, but someone else. What if next week, China begins invading Taiwan? Or if an NK missile hits SK or Japan. Or Putin makes a move in Ukraine.
As we all know, T’s only preoccupation with all US allies, in Asia or in Europe, is that they are being underbilled. This is not a calculus to preserve US leadership.
That might be the case. The courts are going to make the decision and they might agree with you.
“CNN’s biggest idea of a worry is that T might pull troops out of Afghanistan. ”
As a former military officer, my first question is:
“Why were they there in the first place”
My second question is:
“Why are they still there/”
And the third:
“Who cares what CNN worries about/”
So as a former military officer you support the idea of POTUS going through Sec Defs like poop thru a goose? Isn’t the Dept of Defense too important to allow childish petty politics to fire senior appointments ?
T fired Esper because Esper said the military was not going to be used against protests.
Glad to see that this post was left up and all responces to it removed……………………………..
Right – not happy Jan, but whatever floats your boat.
In Oz lingo: “Your post and the election don’t pass the pub test.”
Stocks will rally again if/when Biden victory is overturned.
How much you wanna bet?
Voting process worldwide will change based upon discoveries.
Must have to do with gusher of free dosh than vaccine on hopes of new old prez. After all, it’s obvious that the new virus will be here for a long time, and life will never be as careless.
The party will only end when the dollar loses the reserve currency preference.
“the new virus will be here for a long time, and life will never be as careless”
i remember when AIDS was talked about in such a way. life will always be careless. and some of us will survive.
I recall the WW II reliance on the ‘portability’ of Diamonds vs gold…
Of most recently…
Science vs political expedience…
Perceived financial ‘freedom’ vs reality of death. All for one vs one for all…
Unsubstantiated Exuberance exemplified by those who deny historical perspective in favor of political hubris ….
Finally…Dark future status of Reserve Currency…ALL Beaten by a Bug….
This market casino is beyond insanity. My advertised XOM position went up 17.87% ($31.33 to 36.93) in 7 trading days. Sold half and bought the triple short TZA at August 2018 previous high (1740ish), and sold at close for 8% gain. It was pure gambling and luck to get 25% in one day. Ironically I have 10% of my funds in CDs paying 2.5% avg, so in one day I made 10 years of CD rates. I am now a full time gambler thanks to the Fed. My original life financial plan many years ago was to simply put a bunch of cash into 4-5% CDs and never have to manage my money ever again. I simply do not want to have to manage my money constantly, yet I see little choice as it is somewhat a zero sum game. Is anyone else getting tired of having the markets play such a huge role in your life? As Mando would say…”This is the way”???
Yes, I long for the 5% cd rated for the same reason. Stock money is nice, but I don’t consider it truly passive income.
Yes we all want free money don’t we? 5% interest earned for doing nothing at all, sounds great. Now we have to *work* for our money by way of making the most intelligent and well informed decisions we can about investing.
It is true that just about everyone would rather have free money than have to work for it but … welcome to reality.
“5% interest earned for doing nothing at all, sounds great.”
With comments like this one wonders why people even bother to learn about money or invest.
What’s wrong with my comment, Lee?
The original poster is lamenting that they can’t just put 5% into a super safe CD and live perpetually off of the interest.
That’s basically a lament about not being able to earn a certain amount of money, and then coast forever thereafter doing nothing.
With active investing you have to actually allocate capital via decision making and do this continuously. So you are providing some amount of brain power and decision making on how your part of the accumulated wealth of the country is used to fund further economic activity.
Contrast this with a strategy that just earns 5% without having to do anything. Presumably someone else is doing all of that active management using your money. And you think that you should just siphon 5% off of the gains produced by their work in perpetuity for doing nothing?
I said that wrong. I meant to say:
“The original poster is lamenting that they can’t just put their money into a super safe CD and live perpetually off of the 5% interest.”
My two big CD’s 1.5 yrs @ 2.5% and 2 yrs @ 2.75% expired in my IRA a while back and I have been wondering what to do next. So as a relative newbie to all this, I just purchased a couple of books on investing (A Random Walk Down Wall Street & Investing for Dummies). With ZIRP and lots of inflation in the foreseeable future, my golden years may be spent swing trading gold and silver miners;-)
welcome to the club. and, as always, your mileage may vary!
Someone in the 1850’s said that low interest rates lead to bubbles. That is still true.
In my opinion, it’s a mistake to let ZIRP push you into a riskier portfolio. You are better off just cutting your budget. But on average people do shift to riskier assets during Zirp and are open to big losses.
Buffet makes mistakes, but he is one of the best over time and you can see he has reduced risks with Zirp mainly because if you get conned into buying at the top your long term returns are going to be lousy.
a couple things to remember
never buy first half hour
always use a stop, the best traders in the world lose 50% of the time….
don’t chase, it will come back
if investing stick to a timeline for exit and have a target
have a goal for selling
look at PNF charts, they have worked the best last 10 years….old school is the new school…..
good luck, the den of pigmen using dirty tricks in the market is at all time….mind the gaps….
ZOOM has one at 325 that will be hit and if it gets there they might push it down to breakout level of 275…..but Zoom could have little retrace north here right now…..
Buy gold, it will be worth much more 3 years from now….the london NY fix is now becoming irrelavant….Shanghai is now in the mix….
You should also buy a book on strategies for playing craps which has the best odds for players. Unlike the stock markets you can actually calculate the odds for a play and the reward is immediate. Many stock players continue to suffer under the delusion they are investors.
Good suggestion LH;
A friend who allegedly came back from WW2 w $50K cash from playing craps, apparently a common game for even the officers in that war advised me to buy and study ”Scarne on Dice” when I asked him how to play because of a constant pay day game aboard ship.
John Scarne was a professional gambler who knew his stuff and wrote several books for us amateurs.
I studied dice book book thoroughly, went back to the game on ship, and had to quit when I realized nobody else even knew the true odds, and my dad had insisted that it was not right to take advantage, etc.
Other than the basic method of calculating odds Scarne presents, the only other thing I remember of that book is the quote, apparently from a pro gambler in NY, “Show me a game where they are playing sixes and eights even, and I will spend my winters in Florida.”
Just watch the US 10 yr treasury yield and US dollar. A firm move above 1.0% for the 10 yr will have major and obvious repercussions for the market.
What I find amusing is that with the exception of Trump winning the election (25% probability), any real stimulus is months away.
It’s kind of funny too. If Trump’s odds of winning increase then some rats will not know which ship is going down.
I don’t know if Ladbrooks etc. in the UK are still making book on the election, very much doubt it, but IF they are and T has a 25 % chance, you will get the best odds you will EVER get on anything.
On the plus side for your theory, Ladbrooks had paid off the election bets on Hilary in 2016 BEFORE the election, deciding no way T would win. This didn’t cost that much (2 mil?) because so few took T’s side.
On the down side, T’s chance of overturning the election is so close to zero, they’d give you hundreds to one. The most likely, but very unlikely, scenario where T becomes A president is if the T states succeed and T becomes Pres, a new Jeff Davis. But Lads probably wouldn’t pay.
Re: secession: back out the states in the original confederacy, and you don’t have a hundred electoral votes in this election.
‘Succeed’ should be ‘secede’
It hasn’t been a word used much, lately.
PK was up 40.29% today. lol
If you determine stock price based on sum of future cash flows only a company with an extremely predictable future can you even come close to estimating a true price. You would probably be lucky to get within 50% even on a utility. So everything else is pretty much a speculation hoping that you own a stock that beats expectations each quarter.
It seems to be easier to do the evaluation on the sp500 or total index as the income streams are more predictable. Even then you have Fed policy to throw you off. Right now in my opinion the thing you have to remember that income streams on all basic asset classes are hovering around the zero area. Yes stocks are a little higher but paying $3600 for a $$100 – $140 of annual income is pretty lousy.
A new vaccine will be good but will take time to test, manufacture and distribute
More stimulus would be even better. Instant manufacturing, distribute directly to billionaires. No short term side effects besides continued market euphoria and levitation of asset prices. Long term side effects might include hyper inflation, stock bust and dollar crash but hey, as Overlord Keynes put it ” In the long run we are all dead” so why worry now.
Print, baby, print!
As a system becomes more unstable the oscillations become more extreme. If sufficient negative feedback is not applied the system eventually blows itself apart.
Brings back memories of my early analog design days.
Although it is tempting, I’m not sure human involved systems are as predictable as electrical and mechanical systems.
And anyway, I don’t see where any negative feedback could come from. Fed, robinhooders, MSM, democrats, republicans,? Even Trump was shoveling money in the furnace.
Humans aren’t quite predictable, but they sure are cyclic (see Mandelbrot). Think of a system in oscillation, then pump in some random noise. Any resonances and the oscillations become worse.
I’m with you. I see only kicks of positive feedback in the near future. This does not Bode well (pun intended ;-)
If ”random noise” is truly random, then the likely hood of oscillations becoming worse would seem to be reduced by the likely prevalence of not cooperating part of that random noise.
IMHO, that’s part of the foundational problem today with the cycles of our societies in general, namely that we are not receiving much, if any, truly random inputs, as the lack of pure research, invention, and probably, at some very basic level, inspiration continue to decline.
It’s the resonances in the system that result in amplifying to higher amplitudes than non-resonant randomness. High-frequency trading anyone? Day traders can do the same at lower frequencies.
I’m reading (actually listening to; who had time to read) Flash Boys right now by Michael Lewis. The whole high frequency trading bit is crazy. No benefit to the fluidity of the trading process, only extracting money coming and going.
RE: announcement this morning of some tidbits on a preliminary study of an experimental ….
The moral hazard Fed-trade / punchbowl is overflowing with stupidity. Will this frothy irrational exuberance bubble to new heights for the next few weeks, maybe years, or will reality play a role, reflecting our dire global decay?
Wolf pulled my comment for being political. The motivations for pumping hopium into the market are bipartisan I guess.
Seasonality. This is the best season for the market, now until X-mas. Get in now, or continue to be bummed that you did not take keepcalm’s advice back in March.
that is true but I see some issues after turkey day..
actually this is the season of biotech…..
XBI might see 150….get out if it gets there…
My brother was hospitalized last week after a shingles vaccination. I have no idea why he felt the need to get that shot.
My building contractor’s father DIED after a flu shot.
The vaccination vendors get immunity from liability and have a special court that limits any payout of their’s to around 100k.
These pharmaceutical peddlers have a horrible track record of hurting people and even killing them. Over and over. They settle out of court to keep their party going.
Why in the world would anyone ever trust a hasty vaccine from the usual suspects?
“Trust us, we’re experimental and professionals”.
Your mileage won’t vary.
I just can’t let that go: (From Doctor Google and a two minute read)
Complications from shingles in the elderly can lead to serious, long-term health problems. They range from bacterial skin infections that can cause scarring and narcotizing fasciitis to hearing and vision loss, encephalitis, transverse myelitis, peripheral motor neuropathy, and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN).Nov 30, 2018
The most common complication of shingles is long-term nerve pain called postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). “Five years later, I still take prescription medication for pain. My shingles rash quickly developed into open, oozing sores that in only a few days required me to be hospitalized.
and: If you had chickenpox when you were younger, keep an eye out for shingles. Pain and a tingling sensation can occur in the torso area a few days before the rash appears. The faster you can get to your healthcare professional and begin treatment, the quicker shingles will clear up. And be sure to seek out the vaccine as soon as possible. It is the best way to prevent suffering from this unpleasant disease.
My entire family has been vaccinated for this because we actually know someone who went blind from shingles and lost total life quality at age 60. Yes, there can be side effects with any vaccine. Hell, I know someone who had to go into hospital for a bee sting, but they still freaking go for walks outside.
I will be curious to see how many actually forgo a Covid vaccination due to anti-vaxer views or other conspiracy theories? I just remember polio, and lining up for hours in front of Capwells dept store with my mom…….in Walnut Creek CA. I think I was 3 or 4 at the time and it is one of my first lasting memories as she started to cry with relief as we walked away with the sugar cube on our tongues. Of course she knew many who suffered from polio and I later went to school with some who sported leg braces from it. But she was a nurse, so what would she know about vaccines?
Good luck. In our house we will be first in line for a tested Covid vaccine. Why? Because this pandemic sucks and has killed way too many folks. Plus, our economy will never come back unless the pandemic is in rear view mirror, and all the politics in the World won’t change this fact.
Sick and dying populations do make good economies or stable futures. For those who think all the ICU numbers are a myth and over hyped, may you never have to be in one. But stay tuned as this unfolds. The infection rate takes about 1 week for another million cases. The death rate is 2.6% but of course it takes a few weeks. Do the math and use your imagination.
Thanks for the informative reply. Didn’t mean to offend you or anyone affected by shingles. I don’t doubt that it is painful or debilitating. I don’t doubt the concept of vaccines.
I doubt the vaccine companies and the system that absolves them of liability. I also doubt their self sponsored studies which have been shown time and again to be inherently flawed, biased, and fraudulent.
Kinda also doubt there is goodness behind the perpetual regulatory capture of the FDA by the pharmaceutical industry. It is so blatant.
I’m not trying to make a big statement about the touchy subject of vaccines which always produces lots of fresh commenters in all forums for some reason. I only gave two anecdotes and a couple of reasons why I fear this vaccine industry.
I’m not taking any hasty vaccine because I don’t trust the companies or regulators involved. If the vaccine works then no one has anything to fear from me.
Even the first baggie isn’t free anymore:
“Part D late enrollment penalty
The late enrollment penalty is an amount that’s permanently added to your Medicare drug coverage (Part D) premium.
You may owe a late enrollment penalty if at any time after your Initial Enrollment Period is over, there’s a period of 63 or more days in a row when you don’t have Medicare drug coverage or other creditable prescription drug coverage.
You’ll generally have to pay the penalty for as long as you have Medicare drug coverage.”
If that hurts, take a donut:
“Costs in the coverage gap
Most Medicare drug plans have a coverage gap (also called the “donut hole”). This means there’s a temporary limit on what the drug plan will cover for drugs.
The coverage gap begins after you and your drug plan have spent a certain amount for covered drugs. Once you and your plan have spent $4,020 on covered drugs in 2020 ($4,130 in 2021), you’re in the coverage gap.”
Paulo – had a friend that recently almost lost her eyesight to shingles; also an uncle that had a minor case in the ’50s. But you did get me to check out a list of 35 FDA approved drugs that the FDA has pulled from the marketplace despite the influence of the manufacturers. I’ll will eventually take antivirals, but I surely won’t be in the first line. (Unless, perhaps, I’m admitted to hospital ;-)
Meanwhile, I stay home, masked when out. Still can’t figure out why conservatives that are so paranoid about TV cameras and facial recognition are so reticent about wearing a mask. You’d think they would capitalize on the anonymity. Who was that masked man?
Good rule of thumb on new pharm is don’t take a new drug til it’s been on the market five years. Don’t know about vaccines.
You also have to be very careful if you are ever put on medicine for rest of your life. Know several people where this has caused long term problems. Especially liver issues.
Was that the new shingles vaccine or the old one? The old one lose efficacy as you age. I have been waiting for the new one.
The new one is Shringrex which requires two doses. It’s supposed to be 90% effective. The old one was Zoster.
BTW, it’s been out for over a year. My wife and I have gotten both doses. No issues for us with any of the injections.
Sorry: Shingrex not Shringrex.
Otis, I developed shingles a few weeks after getting a flu vaccination for the first time and also a pneumococcus vaccination. Coincidence, I don’t know, but it was brutal pain for at least 6 weeks. I researched people who made comments about shingles and causation. I found one article where the comments were in the thousands of patients who felt that they developed shingles after a flu shot, including some teenagers. My youngest daughter does not feel that a flu vaccination ever gave her much protection and made her sick right after the shot, such that she does not get the flu vaccine anymore.
“My youngest daughter does not feel that a flu vaccination ever gave her much protection and made her sick right after the shot, such that she does not get the flu vaccine anymore.
Most people I know who take the flu shot end up getting the flu, in many cases severely. I don’t know if I’ve ever been given a flu shot (as a child, never taken one as an adult), and don’t know if I’ve even had the flu before.
I’ve been getting a flu shot every year starting in 2009, and never got the flu and never had any side effects other than a slightly sore shoulder a couple of times (my shoulders can get sore from swimming, and that feels a lot worse). The reason I’m getting flu shots now is because last time I got the flu (2008), it got into my lungs, and it took me a month to be able to walk up the little hill to our place without having to stop to catch my breath. And I’m lean and fit (swimmer, still). That thing was so bad that it changed my mind about the flu.
A flu shot isn’t perfect, in terms of effectiveness. If it’s 50% effective in a particular year, it’s already pretty good. But 50% protection that is free is a lot when it comes to a disease that can kill you. Even 20% is better than nothing.
“Most people I know who take the flu shot end up getting the flu, in many cases severely.” The data says this is total BS. By all means, don’t get a flu shot. That’s totally your decision. But don’t use my site to spread nonsense.
Although I’m hopeful for a return to normal, I don’t think that’s in the cards. Biden, hopefully will tamp down presidential insanity, but he’s inheriting a bad situation, which isn’t easily resolved. Market speculation will only play out so far, because, after being literally insane and meaningless, with VIX breaking the market in March, and the FED reinventing Capitalism, there is no normal to return to. It’s possible markets will explode on a regular basis, but at some point, in theory, there has to be some revision to a mean, where valuation is connected to some intrinsic Earth-bound reality. Although it’ll be nice to not have daily insane tweets from a moron tax evader, the progress going forward will be slow and uneven — and at some point, as speculators become bored, reality will be painful. Growth ahead will be challenging.
Here’s a snippet from Bloomberg article questioning certain aspects of the vaccine.
“It’s also important to continue watching those who received the vaccine for years. The messenger RNA technology used in the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has never been deployed in humans before.”
NEVER deployed in humans before. Guess what? I am not taking it. I’d rather fly to Asia and get one of the Chinese ones.
There will be many many options to choose from, and over the next month or two they will be announced.
You ingest bio-engineered products every day, and genetically modified ones, too. Did you have cereal for breakfast? If so and you live in the States most likely your cereal products and milk were all genetically modified. The list is endless, just not as dramatic as it is everyday and long time accepted as normal. (psst, don’t drink any orange juice…it isn’t really orange juice. They just call it that.)
Of course I knew that already, but all the things you mentioned are low risk stuff. You seem to be implying that the FDA approves cereal, orange juice, etc for use by the general population which is obviously not the case.
Many options in the US, but all using new unproven techniques. I will let the Canadians try them first, and then everyone else in the US.
Wow – unreal comment.
There is a huge difference between eating a ‘bio-engineered’ food product and a supposed vaccine that uses a RNA vector to invade cells.
But, hey, don’t bother with the science, right?
“I only do eyes!”
Move to Utah:
“Utah is pioneering an alternative for its state employees to address soaring prescription drug prices.
The Pharmacy Tourism Program, a part of the Utah Public Employees Health Program (PEHP), allows certain members with high-cost medicines to fill their prescription in Vancouver, Canada, and Tijuana, Mexico, where medication comes at a much lower cost. The initiative even pays for members’ flights.
The cost of international airfare to get drugs available in the U.S. may sound expensive. But PEHP managing director Chet Loftis says the program has saved the nonprofit around $250,000 since just last year when it started.
“There are certain drugs that cost an awful lot of money. We’re talking about $50,000 for a year,” Loftis says. “And in those situations, the variance between the cost of the drug here in the United States and what’s available either in Canada or Mexico is such that it makes economic sense for us to be able to send them to those locations.”
February 14, 2020
Peter O’Dowd, WBUR
Well supposedly the vaccine will be available for everyone in the US. Pricing? Some say it will be free or at most it would be 19.50. Nothing certain yet. But yeah, does not matter what the price is. I’d rather wear a mask.
The most amazing stat is insulin in the US at 1000 percent of Canadian price.
‘rather fly to Asia and get one of the Chinese ones’
China COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Halted In Brazil After Reports Of Patient’s Death
Normal. They do large trials so odds are that someone will kick the bucket during the trials. They then halt the trials and figure out what happened.
Same happened in the UK, as far as I remember.
Yeah it’s pretty normal. Even with the current flu shot, there’s always a chance someone will die. Just take a look at South Korea.
Vaccines, etc are not 100% fool proof. Heck flying is not fool proof. The important thing to remember is that you have a greater chance of dying from flying than flu shots.
they just had a brazilian die from chinacom vaccine, I would ask for refund from airlines
anyone taking anything from China is clearly in some kind of mental distress
Many US drugs are from China. It might even be ‘most’ but not sure. You have very likely taken some. They don’t put ‘Made in China’ on them.
I only recently read this btw and it surprised me.
The drugs are mostly developed in US but manufactured offshore.
John Hussman is brilliant and a decent human being, but earlier this year, he finally said that Jerome Powell and the fed is buying public company stocks and bonds and that it is illegal. I do not trust anything the fed says or puts in print Bernanke was doing these same things over a decade ago.
I read that. I think his main issue was the leveraged buying of bonds which he said the law specifically prevents them from doing. The Fed is not supposed to hold on their books any collateral to which they can take a loss as then they are running fiscal policy.
‘Fed is not supposed….’
Yeh. But who is watching their actions and demanding accountability!
Let’s say someone caught the Fed manipulating the market. You know what these people will do? “Can you guys tell use BEFORE the next intervention?”
Best country on earth.
I am seeing empty shelves where the sale items are suppose to be in food stores . I have had curbside delivery by food stores where the sale item was substituted with a similar item that was 3 times the price even though I stated on the internet order “no substutions” many times. ……….Finally, the dollar store got a product back on the shelves that I use frequently. The good news was it was still a dollar. The bad news was that the quantity was only 10% of the amount earlier this year.
Why was Rendesivir approved by the FDA right before Trump left office? It was suppose to have minimal effect on Covid-19? Generic dexamethasone is thought to be the most help in fighting the bad effects of the infection by far. And why did a CEO of a drug company whose product was labeled as having no effect in the treatment of Covid recently, state yesterday that his product is similar to Pfizer’s vaccine.
“Why was Rendesivir approved by the FDA right before Trump left office?”
News to me and the rest of the USA.
1. Vaccine news is still a lot of hype with many unanswered questions and many gaps!
Great for mkts zooming on the news but slowly will come down realize the hard reality
2. prez is really decided NOT until Dec 14 th at the earliest or even could be later! Stimulus is nowhere to seen!
3 A lot suits out there filed by Trump team, have to through the lower courts before reaching SCOTUS
4. Transistional team of Biden has not given full access. More drama being played in DC
5. C 19 is quadrupling in number everyday or the other day. More hospitalizations with ever increasing strain on the hospitals and health care workers here and Europe. WE still have 3-4 months to go!
6. Fed is caught between the political uncertainty and the Covid challenge on the economy. It cannot print jobs or give $ directly!
7. Investors have lulled into thinking that there will be V shaped recovery and Fed is always there to rescue! A rude awakening is growing, however slowly!
For the first time in 12 yrs, I am able to employ ‘tactical – swing trading’ successfully b/c the battle between the hopium perception, narrative of vaccines on the way vs cruel reality of the effects of Covid, the mkts keep churning to the downside amidst spikes and bear traps. Back and forth but primary forces which worked so far are weakening!
Fundamentals are becoming a force to reckon with unlike any time since March of ’09! Remember but for Fed’s QEs, the S&P would be at 1800. If not for buy-back shares, there wouldn’t be 50% gain in S&P!
I really thrived under the the good ole, our genuine American Free Mkt CAPITALISM, unlike now, prior to ’09! Reversion to the mean has started!
Sadly C 19 had to come to initiate that!
Are you able to buy antibiotics; hydroxychloroquin; antivirals and other meds on the internet from India? Also, curious to know if having a savings account and/or a safety deposit bank is a good idea anymore?
do you like rat vermin in your pills….ask hikma….its why every generic is a stupid decision by a patient…..they make that in labs that are horrible compared to American labs…..
I can see there are a ton of non sector folks here, specifically biotech and healthcare……
a tip for all……AVXL is the CNS platform drug that biogen will now buy or better yet for shareholders, go at it alone, retts, ALZ and parkinsons via sigma 1 receptors is the right way to attack CNS diseases….placque….that has been debunked over and over again
Pfizer’s CEO dumped 62% of his stock after the announcement. 90% effective!!!
Best country ever!!!