Politicians raved about it. Experts were cautious: “an interesting first signal,” many questions remain. Even Pfizer said, “as the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary.”
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
“We’re in a position potentially to be able to offer some hope,” Dr. Bill Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president of clinical development, told The Associated Press. “We’re very encouraged.”
We sure could use some hope amid spiking Covid-19 infections. Monday morning, as is usually the case with these vaccine announcements, Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech announced in a press release – and not in a peer-reviewed medical journal – some early tidbits about their two-dose vaccine. An announcements of early tidbits of a drug trial via a press release without further data is very unusual in itself. But hey, these are unusual times.
Pfizer said that according to the “first interim analysis” from a Phase 3 study, 94 of their 43,538 participants – some of whom got two shots of a placebo, and some of whom got two shots of the vaccine – tested positive so far for Covid-19.
Only those participants with symptoms were tested. Potentially infected participants without symptoms were not tested, and their infections remain unknown for now.
Because the study is still ongoing, Dr. Gruber couldn’t say how many participants that got the placebo and how many participants that got the vaccine had infections, according to the Associated Press. But the math indicates that almost all the infections tallied so far had to have occurred in people who got the placebo, he said.
Given the early state of the study, Gruber could also not say how many of the older participants, who are the most at risk, had been infected.
In this first interim analysis of the data, an outside panel of experts saw indications that the vaccine could be “more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19,” according to the press release.
The clinical trials will continue until there are 194 confirmed Covid-19 cases among the participants, which is the number the FDA has said is enough to determine how effective the vaccine is.
Pfizer did not offer any details about those infections and cautioned that “as the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary.”
“We look forward to sharing additional efficacy and safety data generated from thousands of participants in the coming weeks,” Pfizer said in the press release.
“We need to see the data, but this is extremely promising,” Dr. Jesse Goodman of Georgetown University, former chief of the FDA’s vaccine division, told the Associated Press. There were many questions still to be answered, he said, including how long the vaccine’s effects last and whether it protects older people as well as younger ones.
And if the vaccine ultimately works out, “it’s going to be a while before this has a major impact at the population level,” he said.
Pfizer has already begun manufacturing the vaccine. During the earnings call on October 23, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that the company could have 30-40 million doses ready by the end of the year. Given that two doses are required – the initial shot and a booster shot – this would be enough to vaccinate 15-20 million people
As part of Operation Warp Speed, the government promised Pfizer $1.95 billion for an initial order of 100 million doses, which would be enough for 50 million people. The government also has the option to purchase another 500 million doses to vaccinate an additional 250 million people. Americans would get these shots for free.
The EU ordered 200 million doses with an option for another 100 million; Japan ordered 120 million, Britain 30 million.
Marylyn Addo, head of the tropical medicine unit at UKE hospital in Hamburg, Germany, told the Associated Press that the interim results were “an interesting first signal,” but questions remain.
Politicians across the spectrum raved about the news.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Associated Press that a 90% effectiveness is “just extraordinary,” that “not very many people expected it would be as high as that,” and that “it’s going to have a major impact on everything we do with respect to COVID.”
The timing of the announcement itself – after countless Vaccine-Mondays – created its own furor, because everything about the Pandemic has gotten politicized, even the Pandemic itself, and such mundane things as face masks. So here we’re staying on trend. Pfizer had at first announced that it might have initial vaccine data before the election; and later it announced that it would not have any initial data before the election. So now six days after the election, it made its initial data public.
Pfizer CEO Bourla told CNBC that the election had been an artificial deadline.
The independent panel of experts met on Sunday to analyze the test results so far and then notified Pfizer. Kathrin Jansen, a senior VP and the head of vaccine research and development at Pfizer, told the New York Times that she learned of the results from the panel shortly after 1 p.m. on Sunday, and that the timing was not influenced by the election. “We have always said that science is driving how we conduct ourselves – no politics,” she said.
One thing for sure we know: it involves a huge amount of money, and financial markets went all over the place. More in the next installment.
Stocks split in two: Some soared, others plunged. Indexes backed off sharply into the close. Dow gave up 800 points of its 1,600-point spike. Nasdaq -1.5%. Oil soared. Gold & silver dropped. 10-Year Treasury went rogue. Read… All Heck Broke Loose in the Markets on Vaccine Monday. Stocks Split in Two: Some Soared, Others Plunged
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“Only those participants with symptoms were tested.”
Fail. Who doesn’t know about asymptomatic carriers?
That surprised me too. I thought they would be testing everyone regularly regardless of symptoms.
The only good reason, I can think of is, it might be more difficult to get volunteers if they are going to have to be tested every 1 to 2 weeks. The volunteers would also of course, have to be demographically diverse. Still, that should have happened.
I smell a rat (does that mean I am C19 free at the mo)
Look at the big numbers
43000 in trial over recent months with 50% on drug and 50% on placebo – YET 10% herd cumulatively
So, if my logic is correct, either
A) this 43000 were wholly unrepresentative of World society and/or
B) this 43000 should have generated several hundred C19 cases in total whether on placebo or not (43000 * 50% placebo * say 1% of that population = more than 200 cases, and/or
C) this 43000 was bias to another population cohort for some legitimate reason not made clear yet meaning they were not as susceptible from the getgo to C19
So
A) I am more concerned why the trial was seemingly wholly unrepresentative of large parts the society it is intended to ( ultimately) designed to protect eg the aged
B) The 94 infected number, 10% on the drug, 90% on placebo is statistically very weak to make the “leap of faith” that took place yesterday – at first sight the inaccuracy/error rate looks bigger than the results I.e the 90% outcome claim so far could be right but it could also be wrong
C) Why this was announced Yesterday on such poor Science is beyond me (but that is perhaps why I am not one of the 1%)
Finally, I have to presume that my logic above is wrong as I have seen no commentary whatsoever (YET) from the serious scientific community ripping PFizer CEO/R&D management to shreds
Please correct me
Z71
The announcement had little to do with science.
” interim … outside … indications … could be”
Not exactly QED.
Sounds more like a Musk announcement.
Since this virus is part of the SARS/Cold virus, we have heard forever that THERE IS NO CURE FOR THE COLD. Ok, if that is true, then the best that I believe we can do is have annual boosters similar to a flu shot. Also, since there is such a rush to get something out, I guess the potential side effects are not a concern. So here is my proposal for any vaccine of any form rushed to market:
1. The senior management and all employees of the the company that made said vaccine will need to take it first along with Anthony Fauci and the lady with the scarf who was his side kick.
2. Followed by all politicians and political party operatives, staffers, etc.
3. Followed by all associated with the FED.
4. Followed by all bankers, securities traders, hedge fund folks , people who have Robin Hood accounts and people who drive Teslas.
5. Followed by all associated with the lame stream news media.
6. Followed by all professional athletes.
7. Followed by people who drive alone in a car while wearing a mask.
There are probably a few more, but don’t come to mind at this moment. You get the picture.
Part of the reason there is “no cure for the cold” is that “the cold” is actually many different viruses with similar symptoms. And also that until now there has not been much incentive to find a vaccine for such mild diseases.
Creating a vaccine targeted to a very specific coronavirus – that’s a different story.
Mainly what MarMar said, although, for both the flu and cold, it simply isn’t currently possible to fit 100 different viruses strains in 1 or 2 needles to build an immunity against. That’s the bigger reason there is no 1 vaccine for the cold. The viruses also change/mutate over time and inoculating against 100 different viruses at 1 time could cause your body to freak out.
Scientists have to predict every year, what viruses are going to be the most prevalent or destructive and only select a few to protect against.
The flu and cold are the names of what symptoms your body gives off as it reacts to infections by many possible different viruses.
GOOD PLAN.
Trin-we used to hear ‘forever’ that the world was flat, and that kings possessed a divine right (sound like someone you know’s firm belief?) to rule over us all. “…more things in heaven and earth, Horatio…”. Had polio or smallpox, lately?
may we all find a better day.
MarMar and 91B20: please read my post carefully as I used the biggest word ever….drum roll please….”IF”
I hope for boosters similar to flu, or shingles or pneumonia with manageable side effects that are worth the risk. It is very difficult to pin point the flu virus as there are many and mutate; so these shots we get annually basically help bolster the immune system to better fight the invader. Also, sure helps being healthy and NOT obese. On the average, we are an obese country, with high rates of diabetes…so the co-morbidity factor is significant in those being harmed or killed by corona (I think from memory that CDC put out numbers that approx. 94% of American deaths had about two co-morbidity factors – we are NOT a healthy country, sadly enough). Healthy people can die as well, but very small percentage, and genetics seem to play a role here. Also, notice that even though infection rate seems to be rising at present, the death toll is now proportionately less, at least based on my math when I look at the sites. This says that health case is getting better at the treatment options.
Polio or small pox were able to be “targeted” a little better as opposed to a corona virus that seems to mutate more. I believe 2 strains of polio have been eliminated, but the disease still exists in lesser developed countries. Small pox was considered a “low mutation” disease, so again not the moving target.
Somewhat of an apple/orange to compare polio and small pox to corona viruses.
Finally, I am a healthy skeptic of human nature – enough said on that.
Regardless, we do hope for better times. But, protect yourselves and gird those loins none the less !!!
Trin-i take your points, especially skepticism of the capriciousness of human nature, and the necessity of loin-girding. Am dealing with present multiple casualties in friends&family, some who have/had comorbidities, some not, some who took precautions, some who didn’t. Apologies for being a bit shrill, may your own casualties be minimal.
may we indeed, all find a better day.
Trinacria
LOL
My first read of your post was pretty fast & inaccurate, but based on your list of proposed “early adopters” I assumed it was for a vaccine that cured stupid.
Javert: comedian Ron White (blue collar comedy fame) already covered that with his comedy tour called “you can’t fix stupid”.
Trinarica,
I agree completely.
Smell a Huge Rat!1:sars/mers/ebola Fardeadlier,how long for a vaccine4ebola?0 for commoncold,sars,mers,butMagic:noteven a year ofGerman/u.s.covdinfection supposedly,though bioevidencesays otherwise,thebest vacc ever.2:unscientificallyvalid micropopulationof testsubjects!Peer-reviewed,initialresults?3:Longtermeffects,maybe infertility or immunesystemproblems?4:Y wouldmany gov.s throwbuckets of$ at Unproven,Unreproduced results?5:covdmortality/cases ObviouslyFraudilently Hyped to manipulate us.Lackoftransparency!
Modem Crash!?
This is great news if true. God bless those brilliant minds.
Now, if it turns out that it was all overblown and the vaccine doesn’t work, will the stock market come down by the same amount it went up?
No stawk market only goes up ;-)
So they’re already producing millions of doses to sell. I wonder who will get it first.
Meanwhile, the virus is already mutating, as seen in Denmark in the mink farms (200 infected).
An Army general who is in charge of distributing the vaccine–300 million doses in the US alone–said on ’60 Minutes’ last night that the early recipients will be the medical professionals treating COVID sufferers. Yes, some ‘well-connected’ types will probably get it as well.
Let them have it. I DON’T want it.
I would feel better about getting it, if politicians and “the elites” were certifiably given it first.
“Yes, some ‘well-connected’ types will probably get it as well.”
Then they will be the first to get any side effects too.
Good luck to them.
I think the MSM talking heads should actually be the first to get it then we can watch live over the next year and observe what happens.
What would be the use? You lot would just claim that they never had it or that they had an “elite version” or whatever … rant, rant and rant … and more rant!
Instead of telling others what to do and how to do it: Just don’t get the vaccine if you don’t want to have it! It’s really that easy.
“What would be the use? You lot would just claim that they never had it”
Who or what is ‘you lot’?
People that think for themselves are not led around by the MSM?
Its worth noting that Pfizer did not participate in the government’s Operation Warp Speed.
Actually, they did but they claim not to have taken government $.
You should probably contact the Department of Health and Human Services and have them update their website as it only lists Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, AstaZencia, and GlaxoSmithKline as being funded for development of a vaccine.
Actually they claimed to have negotiated a purchase agreement for any eventual vaccine but they have not taken the BARDA research funding so all their testing remains proprietary – have to take them at their word on the 90%.
They haven’t found a vaccine for the common cold which is also a coronavirus in the last 100 years yet they find one for this in less than a year.
6 days after the election.
And is 90% effective against a virus that has a survivability rate higher than 99%. You can’t make this **** up. Lmao
But…But…They said it wasn’t politically driven!
The MSM/DC has a “human centipede” relationship with the general public and we are on the “unfortunate” end.
OMG this made me laugh so hard, I cried. For real! Thank you.
They areThePerfect Ones,uncorruptable,nonpolitical just like SCIENCE!Allscience is corruptedfrom the getgo.FromWho$s it,Whats studied & by whom& forhow long,to the results-whatsleftout,whats leftin,who publishes,whoreviews,who markets results?Who is hired at NIH or otherbig entities controlling science$,press,peerreview process.All people have egoes,hopes,dreams,except scientists I guess!
See above. The “common cold” is a different beast – many different beasts, actually.
MarMar,
The common cold can be a coronavirus. Do you disagree?
See below:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
I agree there are other respiratory viruses out there. The fact that we’ve been exposed to so many types of coronavirus throughout our lives explains why some have T-cell immunity to sars-cov-2… And that could be why there is an astounding rate of asymptomatic “cases”.
KamikazeShaman,
The cold is a term for a common set of reactions your body gives off as it fights one or more of many different viruses, sometimes coronavirus’s, but, it can be one of a vast possible amount of viruses that exist or will exist. The reason there is no vaccine for the common cold is, because, you cannot take a vaccine for a 100 or more different viruses at the same time.
With less potent viruses they can put several, but, not 100s in 1 needle. For more dangerous ones, there can only be 1 virus in a needle, sometimes they have to even give multiple shots for a single virus for various reasons.
The common cold can one of many coronaviruses. Immunizing you against multiple things at once is NOT dangerous, it’s just a lot of work to create a vaccine for each one. So so far hasn’t been worth it.
@KamikazeShaman
>>And is 90% effective against a virus that has a survivability rate higher than 99%.
Exactly. And along the same lines, X% of people infected SARS-Cov-2 get mild illness. Estimates of X are all over the place, but some as high as 90% as well.
Why would you need a cure for the common cold? It’s less harmful than your ignorant comment. No one would take a vaccine for it so there’s no money in it.
It mutates too much to be vaccinated against… Just as SARS-cov-2 will. It may require frequent (perhaps annual) “updates” to keep up with the latest mutation.
BTW, You do realize you sound like a complete jerk by calling someone’s comment “ignorant”.
You might find this article interesting…
https://www.newsweek.com/common-cold-deadly-1479824
The common cold can kill older people with comorbidities like COPD. Sound familiar?
Really?Colds are Huge $interruptorsHow much loss in productivity to students,teachers,ceos,gov.officials,healthcareworkers,police,everyday people do you think occurs,not to mention severe complications?No risk,cheap coldvaccine would be Very popular.
You can’t make this **** up. Lmao
Well, you just did.
Really really good news.
Aug, 5th this year:
The Canadian government has signed new deals with pharmaceutical firms Pfizer and Moderna to secure millions of doses in 2021 of the coronavirus vaccine candidates each company is currently developing.
My wife is 61 years old and has been a type one diabetic for just under 50 years. While her health and fitness is exceptional, and while she is an outlier for NO long term complications, we have been very concerned about her contracting the virus.
For readers who do not understand the difference between type 1 and type 2 diabetes, type one is an auto immune disease brought on by her own body’s immune system becoming super charged during a routine illness, and going on to destroy the pancreatic islet cells that produce insulin. Type 2 folks produce insulin, but for a variety of reasons, (not always obesity and diet) a person’s body cannot absorb and/or use the insulin their body has produced and continues to produce. Regardless, it has always been distressing to read and suffer ignorant comments about diabetes.
I have one old colleague who was an avid bicycle rider, thin as a whisper and beyond fit who one day contracted a virus that attacked his heart. He almost died. From biking up to 100 miles per day he went to not being able to climb stairs. He would also be a first candidate for vaccine.
Anyway, good news for all, and stay safe while the numbers continue to explode. BC lower mainland has various restrictions in effect today, including no gatherings at all in households, closing of gyms etc. Vancouver Island had three cases reported today, population 1 million. The hold the virus is taking upon society seems to be in direct correlation to community buy in and personal choices. There have been mask protestors who now have a life time ban on BC Ferries. Choices…..
Good. News. Today. For a freaking change. regards
If a person wants to be a “mask protestor”, said person should really take into consideration that the welfare of others is an issue as well and, not infringe upon that.
Also, all governments could have done a better job at education of the public and not trigger the distrust that this is some kind of power grab – which for some, it may be. So, governments need to take responsibility as well, which they of course never will.
Also, along the lines of your friend, this 21 year old studying to be a personal trainer and fit as can be died of influenza in Jan. of 2018. This shocked me and I think about it from time to time, especially since corona. So, who knows our genetic make up, even if seemingly healthy, and how an flu virus can affect us. Here is the link:
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/flu-season-death-pennsylvania-influenza-westmoreland-county-pittsburgh-latrobe/46897/
No reasonable CEO would have released such news before the election. It is highly probable Pfizer knew about the results in advance, but any simple analysis of risk/rewards scenarios would conclude that the best time to release the vaccine results was after the election.
I wonder if a shareholder suit could get the CEO on the stand.
Anyone who sold shares a couple weeks/months pre-announcement might have standing.
Now, of course, Trump is very shy of litigation…
Whew…now the Fed can withdraw all it’s extra QE and ZIRP since it’s no longer needed. Bet they’re drawing up plans to that right now.
In same drawer that holds structured/systematic/rolling quarantine system by CDC since 1919…
The CDC says they still have not isolated “covid-19” so how, exactly, can they create a vaccine? I don’t know and I don’t care. I don’t really want to think about it or question the narrative, as long as the market is up. They say there is no money in health, but I guess “they” never heard about the mandatory vaccination scheme. I think I see light at the end of this tunnel…
Pfizer’s senior vice president of clinical development DOESN’T KNOW how many of the infections were in the placebo group? Are you serious? They have the data at their fingertips. This is their most important priority. The Sr VP would be meeting with his staff on this daily, if not hourly.
Very very fishy.
And of course, Biden’s team was informed BEFORE the public, possibly allowing the winning team to profit before everyone else.
But no worries, Bloomberg’s reporting “Vital World Trade Route Roiled by ‘Black Swan’ Container Crunch”. Americans lied about who they would vote for, and also whether they could come up with 400 bucks for emergencies, but we know now that Americans at least agree on two things: shopping is good and marijuana is good. There’s hope yet for this country.
Best country ever!!!
Obie-Wan is my only hope. It’s a long shot, too.
US Treasury Bond Ishares 20+ year ETF is -8.68% in a 3 month period. People have to be very careful when and how much they buy bond mutual funds, bond ETF’s.
Just because it says or is government bond funds, government bond ETF’s, it does not mean that is very safe like a bank CD, deposit.
A change in rates from such lower levels as from this year can be a big miss, a big disaster.
I told my friend don’t borrow to buy these things and now he is out alot of money. This is why I never buy bond funds, bond ETF’s and I only buy individual bonds with date certain maturities.
I don’t know about other Wolf Street readers, but I really miss 4-5% CDs back in 2008, pre-Fed-Insanity. I am tepid about putting too much into LQD corporate bond ETFs, etc as those could drop 30% again like March 2020 (if the Fed delays another bailout), so I hedge LQD with ultrashort treasury TBT. LQD down 0.76% today, TBT up 4.11%…so far, it helps minimize the bond damage. Bonds investing is complicated in a world with 17 trillion of negative debt, and does not provide a counter-balance like the old days. I simply have no idea why those in financial control of govt do not have the simple idea of selling Pandemic “P-bonds” to American only investors, paying say 4%, to help with the recovery. Set income limits below $400k, allow those over age 65 to buy unlimited amounts, those under a set amount, etc….like E-bonds, I-bonds, etc. The days of the govt helping savers and retirees is over, now they are actually on the attack for anyone who holds fiat savings. I’m surprised the AARP or some other group does not spend a few million to lobby a safe yielding investment for Americans. Instead, the govt wants everyone go gamble 24/7 in the stock casino, without providing any alternatives. Reckless at best…with the end result likely to end with the top 5% owning 100% of everything someday. Good luck governing that reality…
Silver and gold,maybe platinum? Or maybe toiletpaper?
Gold was a very good buy for me years back. I bought 1000 1 troy ounce maples at $450 in 2000. Now, they are worth $2,400 a troy ounce. This is in all Canadian dollars. I think this will be repeated the next 20 years.
Yort, I do too miss 4% to 5% GIC rates here in Canada back in 2007 to 2008. I had some 5 year Ontario savings bonds 6.45%, 5 year GIC’s 6% to 6.25% back in 1999 to 2000. GIC’s is equivalent to CD’s in the US. I have most of my money, 75% in RRSP’s, TFSA’s, non-registered in 20 to 25 year strip bonds, zero coupon bonds, Canada, provincial bonds. They are in the 4.15% to 4.9% range.
The other 25%, I just put them in GIC’s over the last 6 years except not that much this year. They were not bad 2.75% to 3.05% rates. I bought some GIC’s at 2.9% earlier this year before the pandemic started. The rest of the year I was in cashable GIC’s, 1.2% rate for the last 6 months and got some 2.3% GIC’s. Just started buying something today some provincial bonds. The problem is they are long term 26+ years. The two are 2.37%, 2.65%. It is a small portion of all my total net worth under 1%. I did not want to get anything under 2% as today GIC rates in the 1.8% to 1.9% at most. We will see if rates go higher in coming days, weeks.
Rick Dawson, I just thought you would like to know EQ Bank has a 2.0% CDIC insured 10 year GIC which is much shorter term but the rate is obviously lower than your 2.37%, 2.65% 26+ year provincial bonds.
Rick, there is a 2.0% 7 year DICO insured GIC with Duca Credit Union. It is shorter term with the same 2.0% rate and can be useful if you are trying to spread out your maturities. It is not CDIC insured but is DICO insured to $250,000 which is deposit insured Ontario backed not deposit insurance Canada backed.
I don’t know if anyone can give me a clear answer but my cousin is telling me that he is getting rid of his Apple long bonds bought back a few years ago in 2018.
It has yielded 9.5%+ total interest and is up 12% since then as a capital gain so he has made total 21.5% in 3 years. He is concerned that their debt levels are getting much higher 100 billion US so far as they have 300 billion in cash today.
Did Apple Macintosh ever go bankrupt in the past? I did hear that before but never got it confirmed by any source. I have $50,000 worth of these in my IRA bought around the same time and wonder if it is time to take my 20%+ total return and do something else with this money.
I made a GIC in my TFSA back in 2019 with Westoba Credit Union here in Manitoba for 10 years. It was for 3.30% annually compounded which means in 10 years I made a 38.3576% total interest or 3.8576% effective annual interest rate.
I don’t know when interest rates will go that high again.
Well I am in Sasketchewan, and recently got two 2.10% 5 year GIC’s with a local credit union here LeRoy Credit Union. I compounded it so 2.19% because it was in my RRSP, TFSA. They are covered by CUDGC Sasketchewan’s deposit insurance. Looking at some of these posts it looks like I did not do that bad as I thought looking at alternative interest rates.
I got two more a few months ago at 2.30% 5 year GIC’s with them. I don’t see GIC rates going up that much in the next 3 to 6 months, maybe back to 2.30% maybe 2.40% with them.
I’m not ready to pop the champagne until a year or two when the REALITY materializes. I’ve had many years to see this before.
Such fantastic results are generally based on three causes- starting in highest probability from the first:
1. The stock price will do an amazing pop.
2.Humans (especially politicians) much prefer a positive and optimistic story rather than a pessimistic one.
3. This Covid vaccine really does have 90% effectiveness that lasts much more than two weeks. (Did they say how long?)
I’ll say “BRAVO” if it really turns out to be item three.
I heard on the radio that this vaccine needs to be stored at around -80 C which will probably require specialty freezers, complicating the logistics of getting it out to the public.
It’s amazing what the human race can get done when we actually have the combined will to do it.
-70C. I will let brave people try it first, especially since the study has NOT been peer reviewed. It’s more like a press release than anything else, but no one can tell the difference nowadays.
Yes it is amazing. It’s the dollars. Vaccine coming, but can not produce enough N-95 masks even for health care workers. So we stuff rags in our mouths.
And a 2-5 day shelf life. This wonder drug is totally impractical. The delivery costs are huge. Dry ice anyone?
Releasing results now and not a week ago (when they were surely known) is yet another nail in the coffin that the U.S. has become.
I didn’t vote for Trump because he is unstable and just a walking insult. But I didn’t vote for Biden either because he is a non-entity.
Either way, withholding the results so they would hurt one candidate and help the other is the kind of behavior that will change things forever in this country.
In fact, they could change if this country continues to exist.
At the very least I can see nullifications, where certain (probably red) states simply choose not to enforce the federal orders.
Next, there will be sessesions.
Businesses should stay out of politics, especially when they are as important as vaccine making.
Are there any Democratic candidates who you would have voted for, if they’d won the primary?
Hubert Humphrey – oh sorry, he died a long time ago along with the Democrat Party.
Pfizer doesnt do politics I think, its pure business risk/reward calculation.
1- release results before election , Trump to win, very little upside for Pfizer.
2- release results before election, Biden wins, big downside for Pfizer
3- release results after election, no matter the winner, only upside for Pfizer.
Why take a chance with option 1 and 2?
I don’t understand why they are only testing those that show symptoms, isn’t asymptomatic spread a problem in the real world? And many vaccines aren’t as effective with obese people, a huge problem in this country. Are they paying any attention to this during their trial?
Yes, testing only those with symptoms is very problematic. But it’s easier. Otherwise they’re have to frequently test all participants to count those that are asymptomatic.
The United States is testing over 1 million people per day – 8 million per week.
Some universities are testing entire student populations – or at least a solid sampling thereof – every week.
And yet we can’t routinely test a decent subset of 40,000 participants in the most important vaccine study of the past 40 years?
It’s also very, very interesting that the magic number of positive tests needed is 194. Why not 200?
Cornell University is fully open to in-person classes and dorm living and has nearly eliminated COVID cases amongst its’s 20,000 ish student population by testing the student population twice a week. They built a robotic testing lab in the Vet school that can process 7000 tests per day to accomplish this.
Who knows what they’re doing – they didn’t take the public money so they don’t have to tell anyone.
Well, actually they do have to disclose everything to the FDA before offering to the public.
When you dance with the devil, you can’t complain about the music being played. So tiresome. Wake up!
Similar thesis: “If you are going to get into bed with the Devil,
You better be prepared to f#ck.” – Tom “Big Daddy” Donahue
[originator of FM rock radio in SFO ’67-’75)
NYT article details how BioNTech committed a 40 person team working on the virus Jan2019 after the CEO read about the virus in Lancet and recognized the potential impact. Sounds as if the German firm is doing all the heavy lifting and Pfizer runs the trial and manufacturers doses (in Austria). Transporting and storage of vaccine doses at -80C will be a worldwide challenge.
According to the Army general in charge of distributing the vaccine dry ice is sufficient to cool the serum (but it’s not available to all, either).
Surface temp of CO2 “dry ice” = 78.5 degrees Celsius
= – 78.5 C
MINUS 78.5 deg C
Yes. This is no problem for the developed world. It’s rural India, Africa etc. where this is a big problem.
Low temp shipping is not a problem. It’s called a Dewar flask. Animal semen for breeding is shipped all over the world that way, every day.
“a 40 person team working on the virus Jan2019”
Jan 2020.
My friend’s daughter-in-law works with a company that helps run trials. I gather that the covid trials are making it tough to find enough participants for drug trials for other diseases.
Gee, I hate to be one of the people to say this but:
GIGO.
Maybe, could be, might be, and the data just isn’t there to come to any logical, scientific, or medical conclusion about the vaccine.
Back in the real world before all this bs started anybody who used similar data to flog any other medicine or vaccine would more than likely see an FDA investigation or be pilloried in medical journals or by their peers.
But these aren’t ordinary times, are they with bs o’ meter running at 200% in almost every aspect of political, social, and economic life in many countries around the world.
And by the way, lets all see the CEO of Pfizer getting the vaccine on TV……………
He has to take the vaccine and a corona stew chaser just to be sure.
Even if the vaccine works , the big issue is how long immunity will last . There have been well documented cases of people getting COVID-19 a second time in less than 6 months. My son knew a guy in New York that got it 3 times.
Would want proof.could be lowlevel lurker which levels up under stressful,lackofsleep,or lack of nutrition times.
I think the market pattern is pretty easy to spot now at this point…any tiny bit of good or positive news, either on economy or COVID related, market runs with it and magnify the reaction by x10000. Another bad news or problem at a fundamental level, reaction to the market is less than face value (with the exception of March)…rinse and repeat.
I think at this point, the only way market will really correct is if Trump declare WWIII on the rest of the world but then again military contractor stock will likely go through the roof then.
Interesting how Covid numbers no longer impact the market much while good news on solving Covid offers positive signal in the financial market… is this the man made excuse FED looks for to withdrawn, or something to stabilize the show, or it’s just another excuse the ultra rich wanted to inflate and create a wider wealth gap? Too many secrets us ordinary folks will never find out.
Of course it doesn’t matter anymore. A market that purely lives in fantasy, hopium and eternal optimism when does a pesky little thing like facts or data matter anymore?
I do wish real life can also be based on never ending hope too but last I checked, my mortgage or my job security doesn’t quite run on pure optimism yet.
+100%
I love “run on pure optimism”! But let’s boost it a bit – “Forget gas, forget Tesla. This car runs on pure optimicity!!”
Sadly, the last time the markets ran on pure optimicity was in 1999-2000. And the wide/loose chart patterns we’re starting to get here are reminiscent of the final days of that bubble too.
When half your portfolio is up 5% and the other half is down 3% on the same day, strangeness is afoot…
Schwab was blown up by PFE.
Four US soldiers lost their lives in Syria near Iraq.
“In this first interim analysis of the data, an outside panel of experts saw indications that the vaccine could be “more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19,” according to the press release.”
How independent are these “experts”, whose payroll are they one, what are their areas of “expertise”, how many experts in total, and what were the areas of disagreement among them. Too much money involved here for normal objectivity of a panel of experts.
Nice, but peer review of the test results, by epidemiologists in particular, is still wanting by international panels, not just U.S… Rushing a virus without adequate field testing is like the anthrax vaccine given our servicemen and servicewomen during the Gulf War that severely sickened many of them, some permanently. The military feels it will be the guinea pig regimen on this one also.
Personally, I want in- field, real life results for some 6 to 9 months before I get in line for any Bat Flu vaccine. Too old for mistakes.
Stock market lost most of its gains today, NASDAQ lost 1.5%, bonds took big hit, risk-off /Gold sunk: investors pulled back the curtain as the day wore on.
Market realized that with a vaccine there would be no cover for further Fed or Congressional stimulus?
“In this first interim analysis of the data, an outside panel of experts saw indications that the vaccine could be “more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19,” according to the press release.”
So far my lifestyle has been 100% effective in preventing COVID-19.
I think I’ll stay with my proven plan, thank you very much.
Yes it is amazing. It’s the dollars. Vaccine coming, but can not produce enough N-95 masks even for health care workers. So we stuff rags in our mouths.
Where is Pfizer manufacturing the vaccine? Don’t tell me it’s China. Because that’s just more winning.
Sounds like a pump and dump. Anyone considering taking any vaccine please note:
Under 42 U.S. Code § 300aa–22 – Standards of responsibility: Paragraph (b), which addresses “Unavoidable adverse side effects; warnings” states, “(1) No vaccine manufacturer shall be liable in a civil action for damages arising from a vaccine-related injury or death associated with the administration of a vaccine after October 1, 1988, if the injury or death resulted from side effects that were unavoidable even though the vaccine was properly prepared and was accompanied by proper directions and warnings.”
So, if you or a family member turns into a vegetable, well sorry, that’s your tough luck. Oh, and you owe us thousands of dollars for the shot plus per day as your health insurance won’t pay out for any of the effects, citing the federal law.
If I remember correctly that law came about because producing vaccines was a horrible business so there was getting to be a shortage of vaccines in the USA.
We hadn’t perfected money printing in 1988 so companies couldn’t justify losing money on vaccine manufacturing.
If there’s a serious mutation in the virus that promotes additional biotoxicity AND the current vaccine does not induce a response in individuals infected with the mutated strain, then all the virologist efforts have been compromised.
What should be done is
1. Send every American a packet of certified n95 masks. The see-through Amazon non-certified garbage masks I see people wearing are much less effective. Most people are unaware they can’t wear the same mask day after day. You must rotate to a clean mask every day (the virus is captured on the mask surface! Don’t touch it. ). You can re-wear a mask in 3-7 days, depending on the temperature. I keep my used masks in the windowsill to get hit by UV.
2. Require all Americans to wear certified masks.
3. Lock down the country for 45-60 days in January.
Masks, with lockdowns can work wonders, except that most people don’t have the proper masks and or
won’t wear masks.
Yes, the vaccine should be developed, but its effectiveness can vanish in the blink of an eye, while masks will ALWAYS work. Now it’s also possible a viral mutation will occur that makes the virus less biotoxic. Let’s all hope for that outcome.
I am a supporter for wearing masks, but what you are proposing, a lockdown will be a precursor to civil w**, given the current climate. Heck requiring people to wear one alone might be enough to trigger certain groups.
Also, some people will not take that vaccine no matter what. What then? A national mandate to take the vaccine? An executive order?
I totally agree with you. We are dangerously close to a civil war as it is, and a hard lockdown for 2 months is not going to go as smoothly as the lockdown a few months ago.
The New York bar association is recommending mandatory vaccination. You can read their legalistic suggestions over at NYSBA.
Given that most New Yorkers are trapped on Manhattan and Long Island, I think that New York is one of the few places where tracking down and ‘tagging’ the non-vaccinated will be relatively easy.
I wouldn’t try that in North Dakota.
Have you tried wearing a N95 mask properly for more than 20minutes?
Most people will suffocate in it. Even those see through rags are worn under the nose by most people covering just the mouth, forget about N95 masks. But yes, they are absolutely efficient and work.
The problem with the 3M N95 masks or at least the ones I have is that the straps are too tight. I wish they would change their design a bit.
I wore a US made NIOSH certified N99 ( more restrictive than N95) mask on a 5 hour flight from PDX to JFK. It did make my ears sore but breathing was not a big problem.
“3. Lock down the country for 45-60 days in January.”
We locked down in Melbourne for 112 days with curfew and travel restrictions and a whole bunch of other bs and that was on top of previous restrictions as well.
Then they lifted some of the restrictions and then a month later we can now travel, but a whole bunch of stuff remains no go and limited.
For the USA you’d have to lockdown a lot longer.
And FYI this entire lockdown caused by the virus escaping into the community by the botched government hotel quarantine program.
It only takes ONE person to spread the crap and undo all the previous lockdowns.
Robert
My advice for you is to keep your day job.
Robert,
Instead of a broad lockdown, everyone needs to do some basics: Wear a mask when in public near people. Try to stay away from people even when wearing a mask. Do proper hand hygiene. And avoid mass-spreader events. The latter is near-catastrophic for young people because it includes parties and bars and all the fun social stuff that are part of being young (and not so young, admittedly).
Broad and especially draconian lockdowns as they had in France and Spain in the spring and in Melbourne recently are effective for a short while, but they crush the economy and people’s well-being and spirits and livelihood, leaving long-lasting damage. After you lift the lockdown, look what happens: people go nuts socializing, and the virus explodes much worse than before (France, Spain). And then you lock down again? You’d be tempting fate.
Wolf, cloth masks with no tight seal around the face and no filter in both directions of airflow are not as effective as people think.
KamikazeShaman,
Nothing is 100%. If everyone wears a mask, their protection ads up because there are in effect two masks the virus has get through/around – your mask and my mask. And now put at least 6 feet in between us, and suddenly, it’s pretty effective. Probably more effective than any vaccine.
What is it with you people: just because it’s not 100% effective, you’re not going to wear a mask? And you advocate that others don’t wear it? This is totally reckless. Don’t abuse my site for spreading this bs. That’s what Twitter is for.
I want people to stay healthy!!!
My feeling is that 80% of the masks I see people wearing (my professional opinion), are probably only 25% as effective as the certified n95 masks.
So, in my mind we haven’t really had a proper lock down yet.
Why we aren’t breaking ground on federally funded mask factories is beyond me. Even if COVID vanished tomorrow I’d rather have my tax dollars going to a known threat, rather than the next generation of super stealth bombers. Every enemy of the USA now knows a critical weakness.
Much of the general public is going through the motions of wearing masks without looking into the details. (there is a reason why 3m n95s are hard to come by. They use a special meltblown fabric with micron sized pores)
Watch the SouthPark pandemic special if you want to have an idea of how I see mask wearing in America. We can do things much better.
Chin diaper.
Your comment is right on the mark.
There aren’t enough N95 masks to send to everyone in the US. They are not supposed to be reused after one day.
The washable masks work if they are several layers. The masks used with carbon filter inserts work better. New insert each time you wear the mask. Wash the mask with soap and water, just like your hands after you wear the mask. You can do it while you wash your hands. Drying the mask in the sun works well too.
“They are not supposed to be reused after one day.”
They most assuredly can be reused after one day.
Here is where we get into the details. The n95 masks were primarily made to protect people from toxic clouds of dust, not biohazards. Yes, if you’re using the mask in a factory filled with chromium laden dust you should probably replace it as often as possible. But those masks are being used by most people in relatively clean environments so the only hazard on the mask material is the virus itself. Wait at least 3 days at 72 F, to kill most of the virus. Longer periods for colder temps or just to be safe. (UV exposure helps) A 3M n95 ‘half mask’ n95 filter is certified to be good for at least 30 hours use – that use period can be continuous or fragmented. The problem is that over time the micron sized pores in the mask begin to fill up with detritus and you begin breathing though the sides of the mask. I give an n95 mask a 20 hour use period. That’s twenty one hour trips for food shopping for a single mask.
I have read from “expert” medical sources that the virus is 1/1000 the width of a human hair while the KN95 mask has a mesh size of 1/30th the width of a human hair. Also, medical reports of a bacterial breeding ground in masks being used, not to mention reduced oxygen intake while wearing them. Who is going to wash a reusable mask after each and every wearing??!!
The UV radiation to the mask idea is a good one, I do it myself. Some sun exposure on your face and arms, with eye protection and sunscreen depending on your skin sensitivity, will give you the Vitamin D dose that is also good at protecting against the stubborn Bat Flu.
But Social Distancing is probably the best protection against this virus. Hunkering down at home is a good approach also, some of us are a little Anti-Social anyway!!!!!!!! This is a good excuse to be more so.
And don’t forget the hand-washing after touching the mail, items from any store, or just being out in public, you can’t always remember what you touched. Our hands are starting to look like lizard feet, so don’t forget some good hand lotion for moisturizing. Addendum.
1) Market makers early morning deer hunting got the the dumb money with bow & arrows, on great news day.
2) SPX closed at the low of the day, under big red Sept 3 open, leaving behind a large selling tail, on a huge volume, the highest green day in 2020 and as far as I can see.
3) Bearish Divergence.
4) The most beloved FANG’s FDN ETF, got infection.
5) NYA finally jumped above the Jan/ Feb 2018 3Y trading range, failed to
close the Feb 21/24 open gap, stuck inside, above Feb 24 open.
6) The DOW reached it’s MAX altitude, above Sept 3 high, beyond Feb 2020 peak, but failed to reach 30,000 feet, leaving an upthrust.
7)
Why did Techs especially FAANGs tank today?
Because they’ve been insanely overvalued since C19 started?
Actually, promises of a more “normal” economy, improve the outlook for those multiple sectors that got slammed/massacred by C19.
So the money that sloshed out of them in the initial C19 collapse (and sloshed into Tech, hiking its valuation metrics to idiotic heights) is now sloshing back into them and out of bonkers Tech.
All phases made possible by ZIRP, which turned the bond alternative into a low to no return investment.
Imagine a ship captain “saving” all the passengers by moving them from the hold to the mast…at gunpoint.
I wonder how many WFH folks read that headline and thought “oh crap, I may need to return to the office before long”. Buzz kill.
EXTREMELY PROMISING
This is the only thing I can believe from this announcement!
Everything is PENDING further…..??
MD(retired)
The key is to hold to maturity (although then there is inflation risk). And you can’t really do this with bond funds (except, maybe, target date ETFs)
Miseducated America was to bred to think that bonds are inescapably safe.
They aren’t.
(Just safer than first loss/first bullet in head equities)
Beside the obvious default risk (hugely engrossed due to the heavy layering of risk made possible by ZIRP), any time interest rates rise (a free mkt thing) bonds with lower interest rates are going to fall in value (credit risk – occurs because bond price falls to offset new inferior coupon interest rates).
Although bond funds provide valuable diversification, they in essence have no maturity date (unlike individual bonds) so no one can hold to maturity to avoid credit risk/bond price drops due to rising interest rate environment.
That is a hidden risk of bond funds.
I was in my bank talking to the teller. I asked her has anyone caught c-19? She said out of 800 people in the firm 17 had c-19. “I was one of them” she said. In fact three people in her family had it. Her 70 year old mom with diabetes had a mild case. I’m guessing she was overweight as the teller was a good 70lbs overweight The 20 year old brother was slammed by c-19 in January. The teller survived a mild case. What a lucky family they were.
There won’t be an effective vaccine for Covid-19. Scientists worked for many years on coronavirus vaccines before Covid and they all failed. Moreover, the technology is new and never before proven. Science takes time. You cannot spend more money to buy time.
We will be sold a vaccine that may produce some antibodies in some people (which *has* been done before). But just as in all the other failed attempts, it will not prevent infection or control the spread. The FDA will push it through with no proof of effectiveness or safety (those take years). It will take even longer to admit that it doesn’t work, if ever.
Just read today on nonb.s. Site that Llamas may hold the key.They have been researched for antibodies for sars,mers,covd.Theory is that they seemingly have effective antibodies of 2 sizes.Research Llamas and antibodies. Also read common Hep.B drug,begins with an L,is effective therapy.About$173.00 monthly in u.s.,but like $5 in N.Zealand!
Yeah, Pete Buttigieg. He seemed to have a more balanced approach to everything from economy to health care.
I’d say if I voted for someone, it would have to be a centrist. I wish there was a Centrist Party in the U.S.
Reps and Dems have brought this country to the brink. We need a third, centrist party to balance them out. If don’t get one, I fear the U.S. won’t survive.
Masks won’t work because not everyone will wear it correctly, EVEN if it’s mandated. If masks worked this thing wouldn’t be spreading the way it is right now.
Vitamin C is toxic to viruses, any virus, even HIV. Make sure you’re getting plenty. The medical establishment won’t tell you that though, because Vitamin C cannot be patented.
“Masks won’t work” … alone.
Masks are just a part of behaviour that is *expected* to bring us sufficient protection.
Kasadour,
Masks work well if everyone wears them. Everyone wearing masks and staying at least 6 feet apart is as good or better than a vaccine. People need to do the responsible and patriotic thing and wear a mask, and wear it properly to protect everyone in their community and wherever they are. You don’t need a mandate if people are responsible on their own. But that’s not the case in the US. The White House has politicized masks and now it’s hard to backtrack.
It is if 1) everyone does it; 2) everyone does it correctly; 3) everyone does correctly all the time. This, to me anyway, is an unrealistic and therefore impossible expectation because, and it bares repeating, that if masks were in fact utilized in the aforementioned manner, this virus probably wouldn’t be surging right now.
Again, I’m convinced that Vit C is in fact toxic to all viruses, and I do know a few folks personally that treated their positive Covid 19 diagnosis with 2000mgs of C a day and developed ZERO symptoms and tested neg within 10 days. There is no reason to fear this or any virus, really. Load up on C now, and be confident that even if u get this virus, you may not even develop symptoms because it’s all about the replication and C nips that in the bud, but you have to keep replacing it constantly- (which is easy).
It is a good news that money is poured into scientific research instead of shares buy-backs.
That is how technological progress is done.
I wish them a quick success, we need it.
I stay cautious of phrases like “We’re very encouraged.”, because every public speech of a representative of publicly traded company is done with an eye watching the stock price.
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is an mRNA vaccine. There are currently no mRNA FDA approved vaccines. Unlike traditional vaccines that rely on the manufacture of the actual virus, an attenuated form of which makes up the vaccine, the mRNA vaccine is composed of a sequence of nucleic acid, in a delivery platform such as lipid nanoparticles. The mRNA is further engineered to lessen the likelihood of inflammation.
Recall from biochem101 that proteins come from mRNA and mRNA comes from DNA (simplified summary). And so the injected, stabilized mRNA enters your own cells, including dendritic cells, so-called professional antigen presenting cells, B cells and other cells, where the mRNA instructs the cells to manufacture the viral protein described by its sequence. This protein is then chopped up inside the cell into smaller pieces, peptides, which are then presented on the surface of the cell to T cells and other immune cells, triggering the production of antibodies and viral specific T cells.
The manufacturing of mRNA is automated, and scalable and less costly then the traditional technology which relied on culturing viruses, for example, in eggs. You don’t need to isolate the virus to make an mRNA vaccine, either, just need to know the sequence.
And mutations don’t ecessarily mean a given vaccine will not be effective. Just depends on how significant the mutations are. The ideal viral mRNA vaccine will use conserved sequences, sequences that do not change. But even if there are mutations in the sequence, it depends on whether these result in an evasion the immune response.
Too much hype on PFE Vaccine
The messenger RNA technology used in the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has never been deployed in humans before.
The more details come up, the sizzling is going away
Jury is out on effectiveness of any COVID-19 vaccine. Maybe it will work somewhat, or maybe not. Maybe it will bring a host of harmful vaccine side effects that will only come to surface months or years later. We shall see.
Meanwhile, Coronavirus hopium is liberally being smoked amongst our political and economic elite. This ongoing up-and-down vaccine drama (the agony and the ecstasy) will be a great market trading opportunity for months to come.
All of the above as cover for the on-going FIAT DEBT “QE to infinity” to keep the MOAP – Mother Of ALL Ponzis – going for as long as possible. Int’l financial elites/PTBs gotta get it all before “exiting, stage left” to their undisclosed, remote, well secured/provision digs under-cover of another big-ass chaos “bloodly-ugly”.