Exit from the “Lock-in” Effect Slowed in Q1 as Home Sales Deteriorated Further and Supply Spiked

by Wolf Richter • Jun 30, 2025 • 8 Comments

By the time they finally wanted to sell their home, it wasn’t easy anymore because demand had plunged, and fewer of those mortgages got paid off.

The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 114 Comments

Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.

That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 29 Comments

Wages & salaries rose at a solid pace, but Social Security payments returned to trend after a spike in April due to policy changes.

PCE Inflation Accelerates. But Tariffs Haven’t Shown Up Yet: Why the Fed Is in Wait-and-See Mode

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 70 Comments

The 6-month PCE price index accelerated to 2.8% annualized, despite dropping energy prices. It’s been 2.7% to 3.3% in 2025, sharply higher than in the 2nd half of 2024.

The Corporate-Profit Explosion Stalls in Q1, on the Eve of the New Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Jun 26, 2025 • 61 Comments

In some industries, profits surged. In others, profits sagged. By major industry.

Inventory of New Single-Family Homes for Sale Highest since 2007, amid Record Pile-up in the South, as Sales Drop: Homebuilders Face a Tough Market

by Wolf Richter • Jun 25, 2025 • 80 Comments

Lennar’s average sales price drops to lowest since Q2 2020, gives up entire 2020-2022 price explosion. Homeowners wanting to sell have no idea what they’re up against.

The Somewhat Bedraggled US Dollar against the Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Dollar Indices, and Soft Currencies like the Indian Rupee

by Wolf Richter • Jun 24, 2025 • 38 Comments

No longer the cleanest dirty shirt.

Condo Sales Drop to Lowest in the Data, Supply Highest since Housing Bust. Single-Family Home Sales Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016

by Wolf Richter • Jun 23, 2025 • 151 Comments

Demand destruction on an epic scale, after the price explosion. And inventories are piling up.

The 10 Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-8% to -22%) from Peak through May

by Wolf Richter • Jun 22, 2025 • 57 Comments

Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Denver, Portland, Phoenix, Fort Worth, San Antonio.

Who Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation

by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2025 • 41 Comments

Here’s who dumped and who bought over the years through Q1.

The Condo Bust Is Here: Prices Dropped Already 10% to 23% in 20 Bigger Cities, Unravel the Most Splendid Condo Bubble Ever

by Wolf Richter • Jun 19, 2025 • 94 Comments

Oakland, Austin, St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, San Francisco, Boise, Jacksonville, Detroit, New Orleans, Arlington, Tampa, Reno, Seattle, Denver, Mesa, Chandler, Portland, Aurora, Phoenix, San Antonio.

Fed Sees Hotter Inflation for Longer, Higher Unemployment, Slower Growth, “Dot Plot” Shifts More Hawkish but still Sees 2 Cuts in 2025. QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Jun 18, 2025 • 120 Comments

“Uncertainties” rule. Wait-and-see amid inflation fears and slowing growth.

My Thoughts about those Retail Sales

by Wolf Richter • Jun 17, 2025 • 149 Comments

Looking at the nuts and bolts, we see that the spending goes on, even if the mood is ultra-sour.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros

by Wolf Richter • Jun 16, 2025 • 73 Comments

US year-over-year home-price gain shrinks to 0.4%. Prices drop YoY in 18 of the 33 metros: San Diego, Austin, Tampa, Miami, San Francisco, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle…

Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash

by Wolf Richter • Jun 13, 2025 • 105 Comments

After inflation, “real” yields on money-market funds are near 2%, and households kept pouring cash into them. But CDs lost ground.

Recession Watch: My Favorite Recession Indicator, Mid-June Update

by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2025 • 118 Comments

It says: “Not yet,” and “Quite a ways to go.” This trend has reversed before, but if it doesn’t and instead picks up momentum… Time to keep an eye on it.

Tariff-Inflation Watch: CPI Inflation in Light of the Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Jun 11, 2025 • 122 Comments

No signs yet of tariffs getting passed through to consumers, neither in durable goods nor in clothing and footwear.

Inventory of Homes for Sale in the Biggest Florida Metros Piles Up to Highest in Years as Demand Has Withered

by Wolf Richter • Jun 10, 2025 • 63 Comments

Active Listings versus 2019: Tampa +40%, Orlando +42%, Jacksonville +25%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +36%, North Port-Sarasota +36%, Lakeland +80%. Miami a little behind: +5%.

Despite Tesla’s Sales Drop, Total EV Penetration in the US Rises to Record 9.8%: BY Model & USA-Made Content

by Wolf Richter • Jun 10, 2025 • 42 Comments

Tariffs don’t apply to USA-made content. Some EVs are mostly made in the USA, others are mostly made in foreign countries.

Collapse of the Once High-Flying Solar Stocks: Another Bankruptcy among our 8 Imploded Solar Stocks

by Wolf Richter • Jun 9, 2025 • 56 Comments

The stock market’s solar craziness gets cleaned out stock by stock, even as solar-power generation continues to soar.