Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2025 Reminder by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 5 Comments Your generous support has kept WOLF STREET free and open to all, and not behind a paywall. Thank you!!
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 44 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
I’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs? by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 66 Comments The issue has been tight used-vehicle inventory due to reduced influx of 2021/2022 model years after the new-vehicle shortages at the time.
Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 95 Comments QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.
After CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents by Wolf Richter • May 6, 2025 • 39 Comments If left alone, markets are good at sorting out a tough situation like this. The housing market could learn a lesson.
NY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 93 Comments Driven largely by non-housing services. Just in time for the Fed meeting.
California Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 79 Comments Active listings in San Diego +70% yoy, Los Angeles +50%, San Jose & Silicon Valley +67%; San Francisco metro +43% (highest April since at least 2016)
Unsold Inventory of Homes for Sale in Florida Pile up Further in April. Some Metros Start Seeing Gluts, Miami Still Lags a Little by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2025 • 94 Comments Active Listings compared to April 2019: Jacksonville +23%, North Port-Sarasota +29%, Tampa +31%, Orlando +40%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +42%, Lakeland-Winter Haven +71%.
Tariffs Start Washing into the Government Checking Account by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 159 Comments The cashflow of Customs and Excise Taxes has nearly doubled in two months.
Labor Market Is Just Fine Despite Dropping Federal Government Jobs, Media-Driven Moaning and Groaning, and Tariff Chaos by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 81 Comments The millions of immigrants that arrived in 2021-2024 finally get picked up in the data for labor force and total employment, which continued to spike.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 32 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25.2% of total assets. The Assets-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.4%, first seen in 2013.
Now the Multifamily CMBS Delinquency Rate Begins to Spike, while Office Delinquencies Re-Spike to Financial Crisis Peak by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 49 Comments The CRE meltdown just doesn’t let up.
Inflation Is in the Revisions? What Stands Out Once Again in the PCE Price Index? Sharp Up-Revisions of Prior Month’s Inflation by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 66 Comments Up-revisions pushed the 12-month core PCE price index for February to +3.0%, and the 6-month to +3.4%, worst since July 2023. But March was benign?
GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 81 Comments “Final sales to private domestic purchasers” jumped by 3.0%, on strength in the private economy of businesses and consumers.
Despite All Moaning and Groaning: Layoffs & Discharges Plunge, Hires and Voluntary Quits Rise, Driven by Private Sector Strength by Wolf Richter • Apr 29, 2025 • 123 Comments The labor market started regaining momentum in the fall of 2024, and it continued through March.
How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30 by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2025 • 66 Comments The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could be all over the place, but nothing compares to how gold imports blew it up this time.
10-Year Treasury Yield Re-Dips Below EFFR, Yield Curve Sags Deeply in the Middle, Dollar Bounces Back into 3-Year Range by Wolf Richter • Apr 26, 2025 • 96 Comments Turns out, demand from foreigners for Treasury securities at the auctions was just fine.
Office Vacancy Rate in the US Worsens to Record 22.6% in Q1 amid Federal Government Lease Terminations by Wolf Richter • Apr 25, 2025 • 41 Comments But it may take a while before these federal lease terminations work their way into CRE delinquency rates.
Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016 by Wolf Richter • Apr 24, 2025 • 113 Comments The 3-year 50% price explosion caused epic demand destruction. Prices way too high. But mortgage rates back in the historically normal range above 6%.
Inventory of New Houses for Sale Stuck at Highest Level since 2007, Driven by Gluts in the South & West. Prices Fall, Incentives Soar, Sales Rise by Wolf Richter • Apr 23, 2025 • 70 Comments Homebuilders get aggressive to sell the inventory, but prices are still far too high.
