Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
I’ve Been Screaming about Rising Used-Vehicle Prices since Aug 2024 (and No One Paid Attention) but Suddenly It’s the Tariffs? by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 75 Comments The issue has been tight used-vehicle inventory due to reduced influx of 2021/2022 model years after the new-vehicle shortages at the time.
Fully in Wait-and-See Mode, Fed Keeps Rates at 4.25%-4.50%, Frets about Higher Uncertainty, Higher Inflation, and Higher Unemployment by Wolf Richter • May 7, 2025 • 98 Comments QT Continues at the slower pace announced in March.
After CRE Office Market Repriced at 70% Off in San Francisco, Sales Revive. Leasing Jumps amid 35% Vacancy Rates and 21% Drop in Asking Rents by Wolf Richter • May 6, 2025 • 40 Comments If left alone, markets are good at sorting out a tough situation like this. The housing market could learn a lesson.
NY Fed’s “Multivariate Core Trend” Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Worst in Over a Year, Predicts Acceleration of PCE Price Index by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 93 Comments Driven largely by non-housing services. Just in time for the Fed meeting.
California Inventory of Homes for Sale Suddenly Piles Up: +51% Year-over-Year, to Highest April in Years by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2025 • 87 Comments Active listings in San Diego +70% yoy, Los Angeles +50%, San Jose & Silicon Valley +67%; San Francisco metro +43% (highest April since at least 2016)
Unsold Inventory of Homes for Sale in Florida Pile up Further in April. Some Metros Start Seeing Gluts, Miami Still Lags a Little by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2025 • 94 Comments Active Listings compared to April 2019: Jacksonville +23%, North Port-Sarasota +29%, Tampa +31%, Orlando +40%, Cape Coral-Fort Myers +42%, Lakeland-Winter Haven +71%.
Tariffs Start Washing into the Government Checking Account by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 164 Comments The cashflow of Customs and Excise Taxes has nearly doubled in two months.
Labor Market Is Just Fine Despite Dropping Federal Government Jobs, Media-Driven Moaning and Groaning, and Tariff Chaos by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 81 Comments The millions of immigrants that arrived in 2021-2024 finally get picked up in the data for labor force and total employment, which continued to spike.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$14 Billion in April, -$2.26 Trillion from Peak, to $6.71 Trillion, Lowest since April 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2025 • 33 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed 25.2% of total assets. The Assets-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.4%, first seen in 2013.
