Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Again Accelerates Month-to-Month Fueled by Hot “Core Services” CPI. Durable Goods Prices Drop Further by Wolf Richter • Sep 11, 2024 • 193 Comments Second month-to-month acceleration in a row. Year-over-year, Core CPI and Core Services CPI show first acceleration since March.
Bank of Canada Balance Sheet QT: -52% from Peak, QT Continues even after Third Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Sep 10, 2024 • 26 Comments Repo activity wakes up again.
This May Be the End of the Massive Deflation in Used Vehicles that Pushed Down Core CPI: Wholesale Prices Surge for 2nd Month amid Strong Sales Growth & Tight Inventories by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2024 • 88 Comments Wholesale prices jumped across the board but spiked the most for EVs.
The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Rate Cut Mania Now Crushing Stocks after Whipping Stocks into Frenzy or Whatever. Mag 7 Down $2.5 Trillion from Peak, Nasdaq Bloodied, Semis Crushed by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2024 • 127 Comments A 4% drop will put the Nasdaq back to Nov 2021. Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet already back where they’d been 3 or 4 years ago. Nvidia -24% from peak.
The Fed Has Room to Cut, Rates Are High Relative to Inflation, and Job Growth Could Use some Juicing Up by Wolf Richter • Sep 6, 2024 • 194 Comments Job growth bounces back some, hourly earnings jump, unemployment dips, but job growth is too slow to absorb the massive influx of immigrants.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 82 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed so far 38% of the assets that pandemic QE had added.
Buyers’ Strike Deepened in August Despite Lower Mortgage Rates. Listings Surge, Home Sellers Slowly Drop Prices by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 105 Comments Listing prices, YoY: Miami -11.7%, San Diego -9.1%, Kansas City -8.5%, San Francisco -7.7%, Austin -7.6%. Active listings explode in Tampa, San Diego, Miami, Seattle…
Is the Labor Market “Normalizing?” What Even Is “Normal?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2024 • 60 Comments Fewer quits and historically low layoffs & discharges mean fewer job openings, and less hiring to fill them. But that’s only part of it.
Bloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2024 • 155 Comments Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%. If it drops another 6.7%, it’ll be back to November 2021.
