The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 116 Comments Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.
Who Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2025 • 41 Comments Here’s who dumped and who bought over the years through Q1.
Revenues from Tariffs Spiked to $23 Billion in May, up by 168% in 3 Months by Wolf Richter • Jun 2, 2025 • 88 Comments It’s not nothing: At this pace, tariffs would raise receipts from corporate taxes by 39%, but would make only a dent into the huge US deficit.
US Government Interest Payments to Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q1 2025 by Wolf Richter • May 29, 2025 • 93 Comments Update on an ugly situation.
30-Year & 20-Year Treasury Yields Back over 5%, 10-Year over 4.5%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage Rates Back over 7% by Wolf Richter • May 24, 2025 • 149 Comments Will the bond market eventually wake up and scare the bejesus out of Congress? Is it already rubbing its eyes?
Foreign Investors Loaded Up on Treasury Securities in March Despite all the Turmoil in the Media by Wolf Richter • May 17, 2025 • 72 Comments And in April, their purchases of long-term securities at Treasury auctions increased.
Moody’s Cuts US Government Credit Rating due to Deficits & Debt, Blames “Successive US Administrations and Congress” by Wolf Richter • May 16, 2025 • 164 Comments US government kisses its last triple-A credit rating goodbye. Downgrade to “junk” would have been more appropriate?
How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year by Wolf Richter • May 11, 2025 • 100 Comments Last time, $840 billion got sucked out in 5 months, all from excess cash in ON RRPs. But after $2.26 trillion of QT, ON RRPs are nearly gone.
10-year Treasury Yield Back at 4.39%, Yield Curve Steepens at Long End, Mortgage-Rate Spread Remains Historically Wide by Wolf Richter • May 9, 2025 • 73 Comments Despite the rumors during bond turmoil, foreigners kept buying Treasuries and the “basis trade” didn’t blow, but the “swap spread trade” made a mess.
Tariffs Start Washing into the Government Checking Account by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2025 • 164 Comments The cashflow of Customs and Excise Taxes has nearly doubled in two months.
