Scenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2025 • 116 Comments The Treasury market counts on the tariffs to slow the supply of new debt and could throw a hissy-fit if they end while the Fed cuts rates into accelerating inflation.
ON RRPs Drop to Near-Zero $17.9 Billion, Liquidity Flow into Markets Over, while TGA Refilling Drains Liquidity from Markets by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2025 • 59 Comments Liquidity now begins to drain out of the markets for the first time since the debt ceiling.
30-Year Treasury Yield Stuck Near 5% on Inflation Fears, but 6-Month Yield Drops, Sees Rate Cuts, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens a Lot, Mortgage Rates still over 6.5% by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2025 • 129 Comments The bond market’s reaction to cocktail of inflation fears, potentially lax Fed, and Mississippi River of new debt flowing into the market.
US Government’s Fiscal Mess: Interest Payments on the Treasury Debt, Interest Rates, Tax Receipts, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q2 2025 by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2025 • 73 Comments An ugly situation. But capital gains taxes and tariffs helped. And the debt ceiling covered up part of the problem.
Big Fuss in the Media about the Government’s 10% Stake in Intel, but just Giving this Cash to Intel under the CHIPS Act Was Fine? by Wolf Richter • Aug 25, 2025 • 173 Comments The media are tangled up in their own underwear about this deal, while totally onboard with sacrificing taxpayers on the altar of Biden’s policies.
Government Sold $724 Billion of Treasuries this Week, Debt Hits $37.0 Trillion. Getting Ready for the Fed’s Shift to T-Bills by Wolf Richter • Aug 8, 2025 • 124 Comments 10-year and 30-year yields rose after rough auctions, despite huge issuance of T-bills to take pressure off long-term yields.
Tariff Cash Is Rolling In, Hits $28 Billion in July by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2025 • 177 Comments At this pace, tariffs will raise an additional $230 billion in corporate taxes a year. US nonfinancial corporate profits spiked to $3 trillion a year.
Recklessly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $519 Billion since Debt Ceiling, Expected to Hit $37.8 Trillion by Yearend. $722 Billion in Treasury Auctions this Week Alone by Wolf Richter • Jul 29, 2025 • 108 Comments A Mississippi River of debt issuance. But the Treasury buybacks are small.
Treasury Market Sees No Rate Cut by Sept., 30-Year Treasury Yield Near 5%: The Yield Curve and “Real” Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Jul 25, 2025 • 107 Comments At the long end, the bond market is nervous.
The Foreign Investors Who Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: July 2025 Update by Wolf Richter • Jul 18, 2025 • 91 Comments US Treasury debt surged by $441 billion since the debt ceiling, to $36.7 trillion. Foreign demand for this stuff is an increasingly important issue.
