Treasury Yield Curve Flattens as 10-Year Yield Falls, Short-Term Yields Stay Put: Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See in Inflationary Times. But Mortgage Rates Stay Near 7% by Wolf Richter • Feb 22, 2025 • 147 Comments Long-term yields matter to the economy. So how to get the 10-year yield down? Not with rate cuts, obviously. That flopped, had the opposite effect. But with a three-pronged strategy.
Treasury Market’s Inflation Expectations Become “Unanchored” by Wolf Richter • Feb 11, 2025 • 134 Comments Why the Fed vigorously backpedaled on further rate cuts and pivoted to wait-and-see: Long-term interest rates matter.
DOGE Seeks to Shed Vast Amounts of Government Office Space. Here’s How Much the Government Leases, and Where, and What Leases it Can Shed During Trump’s Term by Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2025 • 155 Comments For CRE, the motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. Now it’s 2025, and here comes the government’s office space.
Treasury Yield Curve Steepens, as Long-Term Yields Coddle Up to 5% while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, Not Seeing Any Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates Rise to 7.24% by Wolf Richter • Jan 11, 2025 • 168 Comments 30-year Treasury bonds sold at auction on Friday at highest yield in at least 16 years despite Fed’s 100 basis points in rate cuts.
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Hits 30-Year Low as Central Banks Pile on Other Currencies & Gold by Wolf Richter • Jan 5, 2025 • 109 Comments If the rate of decline over the past 10 years continues, the dollar’s share will sink below 50% by 2034.
10-Year Treasury Yield Rose 100 Basis Points since September as the Fed Cut 100 Basis Points. Why the Historic Divergence? by Wolf Richter • Dec 27, 2024 • 222 Comments Treasury Yield Curve Steepens. Bond Market a Wee Bit Nervous?
Who Bought and Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt, even as the Fed is Unloading its Treasury Securities? by Wolf Richter • Dec 24, 2024 • 116 Comments A hot question for an iffy situation. So here are the holders as of Q3.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 120 Comments Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.
Federal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3 by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2024 • 149 Comments The magnitude and speed of the ratio’s 2-year spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.
US National Debt Goes Over $36 Trillion, +$2 Trillion in 2024!! 🥂🍾 by Wolf Richter • Nov 22, 2024 • 166 Comments The share of T-bills outstanding, average interest rate paid on the debt, and cash in the Government Checking Account (TGA).
