Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inverts Entirely, as Long-Term Yields Rise while Short-Term Yields Stay Put, No Longer Pricing in Rate Cuts. Mortgage Rates back Above 7% by Wolf Richter • Dec 21, 2024 • 96 Comments Since September, the Fed cut by 100 basis points while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 87 basis points! There are now doubts about further cuts.
Federal Government Interest-Payments-to-Tax-Receipts Ratio Spikes, Debt-to-GDP Worsens Further in Q3 by Wolf Richter • Nov 29, 2024 • 149 Comments The magnitude and speed of the ratio’s 2-year spike is unprecedented in modern US history. It does not look good.
US National Debt Goes Over $36 Trillion, +$2 Trillion in 2024!! 🥂🍾 by Wolf Richter • Nov 22, 2024 • 166 Comments The share of T-bills outstanding, average interest rate paid on the debt, and cash in the Government Checking Account (TGA).
US Treasury Debt Held by Foreign Investors: Ravenous Appetite for Juicy Yields, Juicy Compared to their Stuff at Home by Wolf Richter • Nov 18, 2024 • 79 Comments Will foreign investors buy the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt? Increasingly crucial question. But yield solves demand problems.
Longer-term Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Explode, Yield Curve Un-Inverts Further as Bond Market Gets Spooked by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2024 • 205 Comments Going to further crush demand for existing homes. Bondholders feel the pain.
Social Security Update Fiscal 2024: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit by Wolf Richter • Nov 4, 2024 • 114 Comments Contributions rose by 5.6%, but benefit payments rose by 8.5%. The Trust Fund paid for the deficit, so its balance declined further, to $2.6 trillion.
Treasury Yield Curve Un-Inversion Hits Milestone on Inflation Fears, Tsunami of Supply, QT. Mortgage Rates Near 7% by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2024 • 139 Comments The 10-year yield surged by 60 basis points in five weeks but may run out of steam by about right now.
Treasury Buybacks: Update on the Bond Market Bloodletting by Wolf Richter • Oct 25, 2024 • 62 Comments Among the jewels: Treasury Dept. paid 88 cents on the dollar to buy back 10-year Treasury notes sold at auction Aug. 2020 at a record-low yield of 0.677%.
Mortgage Rates Explode to 6.82%, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.20%, +55 Basis Points since Monster Rate Cut by Wolf Richter • Oct 21, 2024 • 175 Comments How the yield curve is un-inverting shocks real-estate folks who’d promised rate cuts would push down mortgage rates even further.
Which Foreign Countries Bought the Recklessly Ballooning US Debt: An Increasingly Crucial Question. Many Piled it up. Cleanest Dirty Shirt? by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2024 • 114 Comments Foreign investors had a big appetite all year for Treasury securities. But China lost interest, Japan struggled with the yen.
