Social Security Update: Trust Fund, Income, Outgo, and Deficit in Fiscal 2023 by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2023 • 109 Comments Contributions jumped 11.8% (more people working, big pay increases). Outgo jumped 12.0% (more people at retirement age and the 8.7% COLA).
Spectacle Ensues after 10-Year Treasury Yield Pierces 5%: Huge Demand Piles in, Yield Plunges 19 Basis Points in Hours by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2023 • 119 Comments Yield fixes all demand problems. You just have to hit the right number, and the right number today was 5%.
Subprime Auto-Loan Delinquencies Hit Record, Prime Loans Are Pristine, after Easy Money Ends: The High-Risk High-Profit Business of Subprime Auto Lending by Wolf Richter • Oct 22, 2023 • 110 Comments What makes it work: Securitizing subprime auto loans and selling the Asset-Backed Securities to yield-hungry investors.
Why Longer-Dated Treasury Yields Spiked. It’s Not Magic: Yield Solves All Demand Problems by Wolf Richter • Oct 20, 2023 • 254 Comments Tsunami of issuance meets Fed QT, Skittish Foreign Buyers, and US buyers demanding to be compensated for the risks of out-of-control deficits in an inflationary environment.
Home Prices Fall Further. Peak was June 2022. Demand Crashes, Price Cuts Jump, Supply & Days on Market Rise by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2023 • 228 Comments NAR, the Realtor lobbying group, demands its easy-money heroin back that the Fed has confiscated.
My Favorite Recession Indicator: No Recession in Sight Yet by Wolf Richter • Oct 19, 2023 • 129 Comments There will be a recession someday, there’s always one eventually. But not yet.
30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 231 Comments Bond Bloodbath, Housing Market in Deep-Freeze, as delusions fade.
“Rent” Inflation in Canada Spikes to Highest since 1983, amid Spike in Population. Homeownership CPI Remains Red-Hot by Wolf Richter • Oct 18, 2023 • 76 Comments Prices eased in other categories.
Our Drunken Sailors Now Guzzling Directly from Punch Bowl: Powell, You Looking? Splurging Online, at Restaurants & Auto Dealers. YOLO by Wolf Richter • Oct 17, 2023 • 148 Comments Consumers still on a buying binge at retailers, fired up by big income increases that this year outran goods-inflation by a wide margin.
End of Free Money Plunges German Construction Industry into Crisis by Wolf Richter • Oct 16, 2023 • 122 Comments A black swan of sorts no one was ready for: Negative interest rates turned positive, and all heck broke loose in the property development sector.
