CPI Inflation Dishes Up another Nasty Surprise, as it Tends to Do

by Wolf Richter • Sep 11, 2025 • 21 Comments

Fed’s Nightmare, but it’ll cut anyway: CPI, Core CPI, and Core Services CPI all over 4% annualized. Goods prices spiked for Used Vehicles, Food, Gasoline.

RTO Has Stalled, There’s Been Hardly any Reduction in WFH since Early 2023

by Wolf Richter • Sep 10, 2025 • 56 Comments

And there’s a big mismatch between what employers are offering and what workers want.

My Thoughts about that August Producer Price Index

by Wolf Richter • Sep 10, 2025 • 26 Comments

That’s how the month-to-month PPI readings are, full of dramatic zigzags and revisions.

In California, the Time a Home Sat on the Market in August before it Was Sold or Delisted Soars to Highest in at least a Decade

by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2025 • 93 Comments

Result of withered demand: Days on the market in Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange County, Riverside, San Francisco, San Jose & Silicon Valley, Sacramento, Fresno.

Annual Benchmark Payroll Revisions: Nonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months to March Chopped by 911,000, to 1.44 Million Jobs Created

by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2025 • 63 Comments

Based on employers’ quarterly payroll filings. Why wait so long for revisions? Do it quarterly!

Stories of Homeowners Hit by Fallout from the Housing Bubble & 3% Mortgages Replace Breathless Media Hype of Bidding Wars

by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2025 • 108 Comments

Turns out, free money is a toxin. And now the housing market has cancer.

Scenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields

by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2025 • 116 Comments

The Treasury market counts on the tariffs to slow the supply of new debt and could throw a hissy-fit if they end while the Fed cuts rates into accelerating inflation.

Bessent Blasts the Fed for QE, its “Perverse Incentives” for Fiscal “Irresponsibility,” “Wealth Effect” Policies, “Class and Generational Disparities,” Failure on Inflation… Oh I So Agree

by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2025 • 214 Comments

“This harmful cycle concentrated national wealth among those who already owned assets”: Bessent.

My Thoughts about that August Jobs Report

by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2025 • 122 Comments

Federal & State Governments Shed 28,000 Jobs in August. Private-sector hiring machine slows, waiting for clarity, but layoffs remain very low.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$39 Billion in August, -$2.36 Trillion from Peak, to $6.60 Trillion

by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2025 • 42 Comments

Compared to the size of the economy, the Fed’s assets are now down to 21.8% of GDP, where they’d first been in 2013.

Despite all the Shouting by the Cut-Rates-Now Crowd, Unemployment Claims Do Not Depict a “Cracking” Labor Market

by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2025 • 60 Comments

Unemployment claims are even with a year ago and are below two years ago.

ON RRPs Drop to Near-Zero $17.9 Billion, Liquidity Flow into Markets Over, while TGA Refilling Drains Liquidity from Markets

by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2025 • 59 Comments

Liquidity now begins to drain out of the markets for the first time since the debt ceiling.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike

by Wolf Richter • Sep 1, 2025 • 94 Comments

Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals widely implemented to “cure” delinquent CRE mortgages.

30-Year Treasury Yield Stuck Near 5% on Inflation Fears, but 6-Month Yield Drops, Sees Rate Cuts, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens a Lot, Mortgage Rates still over 6.5%

by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2025 • 129 Comments

The bond market’s reaction to cocktail of inflation fears, potentially lax Fed, and Mississippi River of new debt flowing into the market.

Core Services PCE Inflation Spikes (Not Tariffed), Durable Goods Inflation (where Tariffs Hit) Turns Negative Month to Month

by Wolf Richter • Aug 29, 2025 • 84 Comments

Services are where two-thirds of consumer spending goes. And that’s where inflation is. But it’s no longer in rents.

US Government’s Fiscal Mess: Interest Payments on the Treasury Debt, Interest Rates, Tax Receipts, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q2 2025

by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2025 • 73 Comments

An ugly situation. But capital gains taxes and tariffs helped. And the debt ceiling covered up part of the problem.

Buyers Strike: Pending Home Sales Drop Further, Plunge in Midwest, Near Record Lows in All Regions, as Supply Balloons

by Wolf Richter • Aug 28, 2025 • 90 Comments

And to top it off: cancellations of pending sales rose to a record rate in July.

Still Waiting for Lower Prices, Higher Incomes, Lower Rates: Mortgage Rates Tick Up, Demand in Deep Freeze, Supply Surges

by Wolf Richter • Aug 27, 2025 • 64 Comments

This buyers’ strike, which started in mid-2022, completes its third year.

Manufacturing of Durable Goods on Rebound in the US

by Wolf Richter • Aug 26, 2025 • 48 Comments

Boeing & jet engine makers are part of it. And the other part is the rest of manufacturing.

New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further as Inventory Glut Grows. In the South, Inventory for Sale Hits New Record

by Wolf Richter • Aug 25, 2025 • 94 Comments

Homebuilder Lennar’s average selling price has dropped by 19.5% from the peak three years ago.