Hugely important for housing, employment, and consumer spending.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
“Currently, the estimates of NIM [Net International Migration = immigration minus emigration] are trending toward negative net migration. If those trends continue, it would be the first time the United States has seen net negative migration in more than 50 years,” the Census Bureau said in a comment on its population estimates released today.
Net International Migration – immigrants minus emigrants – in the 12 months to July 1, 2025, plunged by over half to 1.26 million people, but that period is still a mix of six months of Biden’s immigration policies and six months of Trump’s immigration policies.
“If current trends continue,” the Census Bureau said today, NIM is “projected to further decline to approximately 321,000” in the 12 months to July 1, 2026. And it may turn negative the following year (green line = non-US-born immigrants; brown line = non-US-born emigrants; bold blue line = Net International Migration):
The total US population increased by 1.78 million people (+0.5%) to 341.78 million in the 12 months to July 1, 2025.
The increase was the result of 1.26 million people from net migration – the mix of six months of Biden’s immigration policies, and six months of Trump’s immigration policies – and 519,000 people from natural growth (births minus deaths).
For the 12-month period through July 2026, the total population would increase by only 756,600 (+0.2%), shown in light blue in the chart below, according to projections by the Census Bureau today.
But it cautioned that projections are always based on the prior 12-month trend, so the trend through July 1, 2025, which included six months of Biden’s immigration policies, and that a full 12 months of Trump’s policies could produce even lower population growth for the 12 months to July 1, 2026 (to be released in December 2026). Chart from the Census Bureau:
The Census Bureau had been struggling to account for the sudden and huge waves of immigration under the Biden administration that caused the Census Bureau to dramatically underreport population growth for those years. But in December 2024, using new data sources, including from ICE and the Department of State Bureau of Consular Affairs and Refugee Processing Center, it revised up its population estimate by a huge amount: Over the three years through December 2024, the US population had increased by nearly 9 million people, according to the further revised data released today.
Then came the 2025 crackdown on illegal immigration, the deportations, and the “voluntary deportations,” plus tightening up of legal immigration, that produced another sudden and huge change that even the prior year’s new data sources could not pick up – one of the issues being that the data sources could not track people who’d left and were no longer living in the US.
And so the Census Bureau had to find additional data sources to track the people who were no longer in the US:
“Measuring emigration presents unique challenges because this population is no longer in the United States to respond to a survey or census. Further, there are very few mechanisms to remove the records of these people from administrative data after they have emigrated.”
The new sources of the data for emigration include, among others, repatriations data from the Department of Homeland Security and data from Mexico’s National Survey of Occupation and Employment, which includes a question about a respondent’s Residence One Year Ago (ROYA), which produced an estimate of Mexican-born and US-born people whose ROYA was in the US but were now living in Mexico (emigrants).
The chart below by the Census Bureau shows the population now in Mexico whose residence one year ago was in the US (blue = Mexican-born; brown = US-born; dotted lines = upper bound of the Mexican survey data:
The Census Bureau also conducts a separate monthly survey for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the “Current Population Survey” (CPS), which the BLS uses for its labor force data. This survey includes the data on the foreign-born population in the US.
Today, the Census Bureau showed the trends through July 1, 2025, accounting for the first six months of the Trump administration immigration policies.
The foreign-born population per the CPS declined by 1.4 million over these six months, from 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million in June 2025.
But the Census Bureau cautioned:
“While the change in the foreign-born population in a survey over time can imply emigration, it can also reflect survey non-response, coverage error or the impact of population controls.”
And it said that the CPS is based on a “relatively small sample size” compared to the American Community Survey (ACS), “especially for the foreign-born population.” The ACS is the Census Bureau’s huge population-survey data trove.
And it said:
“We have historically used ACS data instead of CPS data to estimate the size and geographic distribution of the foreign-born population. However, the CPS provides more current estimates with the monthly files, making it a valuable benchmark that informed the emigration research for Vintage 2025.”
Hugely important for Employment and Housing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will incorporate these new population data into its employment-related data, whose survey results it extrapolates to the overall US population. This affects total employment, the labor force, unemployment, participation rates, the employment-to-population ratio, etc.
We have seen in the second half of 2025 that growth in nonfarm payrolls in the private sector was weak, while the federal government and state governments shed jobs. But the unemployment rate has remained very low, and applications for unemployment insurance have remained very low, and average hourly wages have continued to rise at a solid clip.
Many observers, including us here, and including the Fed, have noted that one of the reasons for low growth of private sector payrolls combined with the low unemployment rate and the solid wage pressures must have been the dramatic slowdown in population growth in 2025, especially in the second half when the new immigration policies were being implemented.
And the housing market is going to feel it. The construction industry has been putting up on average 1.45 million new housing units per year, for-sale and rental units, single-family and multifamily all combined. Each housing unit on average is occupied by 2.5 people in the US overall. So very slow population growth, and even slower as projected, would further reduce demand in the housing market amid this surge in new supply. Bring on the new supply! Lots of new supply and slow population growth may solve a lot of problems in the housing market.
And consumer spending has been losing the engine of population growth. Yet, consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, has continued to grow at a solid pace, on rising incomes and big capital gains.
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Don’t know why all people in the US aren’t chipped. Numbers would be much more accurate and chip scanners could exist everywhere to find those not chipped or staying beyond visa, etc.
After you, Sir! You get chipped first. Me last.
Howdy Glen. Lots of folks are chipped. I still have a cell phone battery that is removable from the phone. They can find you if they want too….
We are being chipped. Just in slow motion. By facial recognition. That’s why the ICE agents are filming the individuals protesting. Others are being chipped by political party membership. Others in the checkout lane of the local grocery store as your loyalty card is being scanned. Others while getting gasoline. Others while they talk on their phones. So being ‘chipped’ is not the question. The question is what is and will our government do with this information and whether we the people will ever have access to what the government knows about us and how we are categorized. Think you’re not a ‘domestic terrorist’? Well, maybe not today but most assuredly you are in the database somewhere just waiting for a future poorly monitored Elon to change your designation. So the government has a good idea about you just as they have a good idea about your comings and goings and a good idea about what this means for the future housing market. Yeah, I know, Hollywood had this idea down years ago – probably where Palantir got the idea.
I remember watching a documentary about the police trying to nab mob members in the 90’s. The mob members would hold their meetings in the street to avoid bugs, and would turn off their flip phones to avoid cell tower triangulation location. The police were able to remotely turn on only the microphone of one of the mobster flip phones and record the conversation in the street. Nabbed. This was flip phone tech in the 90’s. Imagine the possibilities now.
If they take ANY phones to those meetings these days, they don’t know what they’re doing.
At work, in secured areas, they force us to deposit our phones in a lock box before we enter the room.
The point is, you shouldn’t have (mobile) phones anywhere in secured areas in the first place. The land-line phones should be as close to analog phones as possible. Unfortunately, morons are running the show, and allowed cell phones in secured areas because too many millenials were declining employment after they learned they couldn’t have cell phones in their work areas. True story. IMHO, If they don’t have enough impulse control to live without their phones at work, then they shouldn’t be *offered* jobs that require a security clearance.
wow.. what an epic response. i’ve no other value to add. just wow.
let me add social media profile in there, and data harvested from our “private” conversations via big tech platforms.
I would note that dox’ing has been a power play for a while now that moves beyond just gov’t.
Can’t have authentication without identity.
Integrity is more than a term in the cybersecurity CIA triad! Irony aside.
Oddly enough, due to all the info collected, it was not realistically able to be searched, cataloged, etc- too much data.
However, iif ai is as half as good at data sorting, cataloging, etc, I suspect all this info would not only incredibly valuable, but one heck of a predictor and manager of people as a whole.
After all, look at work Favebook has been able to do, despite the inaccuracies of self reporting/aggrandizement.
The Mexican gov’t has provided an estimate for its ownership of the immigration tidal wave: 39.9 million.
There’s data out there.
This must be cumulative over all years, correct?
Any background/details on the Mexican govt report on this (tracking repatriation funds? etc.?)
Mexican population is 131 million.
So 40 million in US would mean that nearly 25% of all “Mexicans” living are actually…living in the US.
I’m not quite sure if I would put the number quite that high, but I have very, very little faith in the 10-12 million illegals number traditional put out by the G and the MSM either.
Some things you cannot put a price tag on.
Most underrated economic indicator is net migration. It has been and continues to be viewed through a social lens, void of any economic consideration.
Deflationary on housing, healthcare, insurance, grocery prices. Inflationary on wages. Likely to put pressure on stocks unless AI is able to counter balance wage costs with added productivity.
Your second paragraph sounds good.
And, yet, very very very few years ago the exact same sentiment (welcomed, *deflationary* benefits of reducing massive *illegal* presence in US) would have been shrieked at as *DEMENTED/STUPID/RACIST* by the most powerful media organizations in the US.
Media organizations which had held power (a *lot *more* power) for over 60 years.
And from 1955 to 1995 it would not be a stretch to say the MSM had almost unassailed power to pump out ideological propaganda (regardless of real world consequences).
That faction is still shrieking but their loss of power/influence (not unrelated at all…) has been accelerating faster and faster.
Unfortunately, it’s still a global market. Moreover, property and infrastructure still need to be maintain/updated. Finally, when good and services stop crossing borders, troops will. Especially when you live in a debtor nation. Tell me, has CONgress balanced that budget yet?
LMFAO!
Don’t threaten me with a good time
AI is a productivity multiplier for folks with enough disciplined brain power to use it.
It works in reverse for the undisciplined, unfortunately.
The bigger implication is electoral votes. As waves of new immigrants leave blue states or are not coming into blue states, they will lose electoral votes to red states. This is a generalized statement and is not universally true, but it’s enough true that there’s probably a ten to fifteen count switch in the 2030 census.
You are correct. Will make it harder for the Dems to control the House in 2032 and beyond, even with both parties gerrymandering to the maximum extent possible.
Rec you read the Invisible Coup (Peter Schweizer).
Glad to see this population decline.
As to the hand wringers concerned with ‘consumer spending’ decline as more illegal immigrants are self deported or otherwise removed from within the borders, it needs to be be clarified that such consumer spending by illegals is largely taxpayer dollars first stolen from the productive then washed through a few layers of elected and bureaucratic sticky fingers, before finally handed out to the illegals for votes.
Throw each and every one of the illegals out, forcibly if required. They need to be gone. Further to that, if any are naturalized presently, yet originally came to the USA via illegal means, throw them out too.
Get on with it…
Yep – not easy, not pleasant, but necessary.
Contrary to the stats, emergency care for undocumented immigrants is a not a small fraction of total hospital spending.
Turns out if you need to get reimbursed emergency care costs for undocumented immigrants all you need to do is copy and paste a few excel rows! No one would notice one or two extra rows a month just to push up quotas … would they? Did we?
Contrary to the facts, eh? Cool magical thinking, bro!
Nice swap in content….bra.
And restore a monitored/enforced system that allows immigration where skill, need and cultural assimilation warrant.
As an Australian reading this I am mildly depressed.
Our “leaders” policies promote rampant immigration and ever increasing house prices to the detriment of everything else.
Australian net migration has averaged about 250,000 per year for over a decade. It dropped to less than nothing during the pandemic, spiked in a few years after and has now almost returned to average. Since the Aussie population is around 30 million, this represents under 1% of the population. An equivalent US number would be about 3 million immigrants, which is only slightly higher than our recent average of 2.5 million per year from Wolf’s chart above.
You have no idea what you are talking about, but thanks for the information.
IMMIGRANTS are not being called out as a “problem” by this article. Nowhere in this Wolf has said immigrants are the cause of housing prices or “the detriment of everything else.”.
He is literally saying – population growth contributes to economic growth (no matter native or non-native).
Immigrants typically represent ready-to-get-to-business aged people. They also happen to require having a roof on their head. Whose job is to ensure that the population is not fighting over artificial scarcity? Once you figure that out, you can attribute the desired actions.
If this depresses you, you should go out more and spend more time with real people, than reading some charts online. I mean it as a human being to another human being. This is not to patronize a fellow commenter. I wish you great health.
Sorry I’m a grumpy boomer. Give me something to blame all my problems on.
Nice in theory.
Reality is that immigration – the illegal variety – became and has been a politicized weapon – i.e., outside the domain of just economics.
You are otherwise correct that Wolf has kept to the data for the insights they reveal. That’s his (respected) MO.
Immigration is ok but not from the third world.
MW: Dollar tumbles to 4-year low as Trump claims it’s ‘doing great’…
Is DX=F below a standard deviation yet? Doesn’t look like it to me…
Also, “dollar weakness” doesn’t mean “economic weakness” so there’s that.
“Also, “dollar weakness” doesn’t mean “economic weakness” so there’s that.”
Huh?
It literally means you can buy less than you could before with the same amount of money.
Economically it is not much different than inflation. Just applied internationally
If you boss gives you a pay cut so you can buy less, do you think you are doing better or worse economically?
That revision is astonishing. In one year over 9 million people came to the country which is like importing the Dallas metropolitan area in one go. How could anyone have thought that was sustainable to an already inflationary economy?
That was 9 million total over 3 years. And I have seen figures suggesting the illegal border crossing figure was a bit higher.
Not to get political, but all the claims during the Biden years that Congress needed to modify the immigration laws in order to stop the huge influx of illegals has been shown to be malarky. As the data above shows, all it really took was the will of the President/Administration to crack down. From an economic standpoint, it is good that we have basically shut down the border. Yes, there will be some economic problems/issues caused by Trump going after illegal immigrants, especially in the agricultural and construction industries, but it will take years to undo what got built into the system by unfettered illegal immigration. And yes, some of the changes will likely increase both wages and inflation, but overall it should be a net positive.
Some economic issues? Your glasses are rose tinted.
“Border crossings” is a figure that has been turned into bullshit clickbait. It includes all those that were sent back immediately, and many of them were multiple border crossers that were sent back multiple times without ever living in the US.
As a Democrat, this infuriates me.
We were told the border required Congress to fix, and I supported that bill, btw. I feel like a fool now.
Hard to argue with results… no, we did not actually need a bill.
And this ain’t the only thing – green new energy scam isn’t bluster from the bully pulpit; it’s basically a technical term. They drafted those energy credits in a way that exposed us to FEOC dumping schemes.
So to be political, time to fess up to some shenanigans team so we can get back to good governance!
It shouldn’t bother you as a Democrat because it doesn’t mean what you are implying.
Fixing immigration does require an act of congress unless you have an administration that is willing to trample all over the rule of law (as a vast majority of court cases have demonstrated). Maybe even detain a bunch of U.S. citizens and kill a couple of Americans as a side effect.
As an independent, I prefer rule of law. YMMV. So I am not going to get mad at an administration that chose to follow rule of law over one that us willing to trample all over it just to say there are no longer any hard working illegal dishwashers in America.
Please provide references that added to inflationary pressures.
Wolf has highlighted in several other posts that there was a labor shortage and the economy needed people in all levels and matter of economy to produce enough to meet the supply side of the equation.
I’m not trying to defend immigration laws this way or that way, but boy are people walking in with confirmation bias and seeing things a specific way.
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What the good people on this post are desiring are “machines”. We want “machines” overnight to produce everything we deserve at the cheapest cost possible and not involve people to even build those machines, lest those people be immigrants. Because machines will not want housing, or compete with me for that organic tomato, two dozen eggs and prime steak that I must eat everyday for the same price. (Not saying ThePetabyte lives this way, highlighting common items that were lighting rods.)
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We’d like our proverbial cake and eat it too and blame people who bake that cake and clean the bakery after we are done.
themsicles – I’ve been told the quote was actually, “they want to eat their cake and have it to.” Makes more sense that way.
Do the economic numbers on illegal immigration include and enumerate all the social costs, criminality costs, tax support for welfare, etc., etc.?
We already know the huge costs associated with graft in MN, CA and elsewhere are not a component of this analysis.
Again, immigration is not inherently a negative or a positive. It has to be managed for marginal benefit and it has to have assimilation factored into the cost equation.
The Minnesota fraud largely involves legal immigrants, the problem there is that welfare and Medicaid fraud is ridiculously easy and local politicians have been loathe to crack down because they are courting the Somali vote. These programs should be eliminated.
“How could anyone have thought that was sustainable to an already inflationary economy?”
Lots of immigrants willing to work for low wages and thus bring down prices of basic goods is exactly what everyone was desperate for on the post-covid inflation surge.
Whether or not it’s good for the country for a bunch of Central American peasants to be living under the radar and prepping quesadillas for fat Americans is one question, but that’s what the mass culture wanted.
I don’t remember Americans being asked.
I always want to vote Democrat, but if they run another open-borders candidate I think I might actually lose my mind. There is apparently nothing that can break their death grip on that issue. I come at it from an ecological economics angle: carrying capacity is still relevant and there is such a thing as too many people in one place. It doesn’t matter where they’re from. I’ll quote Karen Shragg recently writing for NPG:
“America’s fertility rates have fallen from 2.54 in 1970 to a comfortable 1.66 children per female today…However, even after more than 50 years of American parents making the decision to reduce their family size, the US population has not stabilized. On the contrary, the US has gained over 140 million people since the first Earth Day in 1970…”
“We can’t continue being the relief valve for the rest of the world.”
They don’t care about the people. They view your community and culture as an economic zone.
The more tax pays slaves the better.
Shove all the people of india and south america all in the US!
Very good to see this. As Wolf has noted, it will keep (and has kept) wages up and unemployment very low (and labor participation rates high), and the increases in housing will put downward pressure on sales prices and rents. It will also help reduce inflation going forward.
What we need to do now is fix our legal immigration laws and policies, including getting rid of the fraud in the H1-B program. Harvard University sponsors over 125 new H1-B visa holders every year. I mean, really, how can a university like that not be able to find people to fill their positions? Don’t they graduate enough students (grad and undergrad) to meet all their needs? More likely, it is just a refusal to pay enough, and thus they want cheaper foreign labor, which is what the H1-B program is NOT supposed to provide?
I truly believe the semi-untold story of several countries is declining population base. China, Japan and most European counties. The implications will be significant. It doesn’t take long for low birthrates to significantly reduce a population. Grok-“China: Fertility fell sharply from the 1970s (pre-one-child policy) and below replacement by the 1990s. Population peaked around 2022 and is now declining, illustrating a ~30–50 year lag from rapid fertility drop.”
Just reproductive rates mind you. Legal immigration has been beneficial for the country and should be encouraged. We need educated innovators and we need service workers and people willing to do the jobs that we either do not choose to do or refuse to do. I worked in a kitchen during college cleaning dishes and that taught me I never wanted to do that job again.
H–2B Visas are a way to *legally* bring low-skilled labor into the USA, on a temporary basis. It is a sort of Standing Repo Facility for labor, and the USA should use it properly. Illegal immigration needs to end, rather than being accommodated when the political wind chages direction. Legal immigrants have to wait in line, and are disrespected by every illegal immigrant that the USA let in by looking the other way at the border.
“Legal immigrants have to wait in line, and are disrespected by every illegal immigrant that the USA let in by looking the other way at the border.”
This. There’s something like a 10-year waiting list of the world’s most qualified workers that want in. Watch the border like a hawk, then let more immigrants in based on needed skills in a controlled manner.
I’m so tired of the argument that Americans won’t do those jobs. They will, just not at those wages.
Jobs only exist when the labor costs are well below the market price of the resulting products. If labor costs cause the prices of products to go too high, nobody will produce the product and the labor need itself will go away.
You are correct.
Wages out in my little slice of flyover continue to climb.
From ag – construction , food processing – manufacturing, they are hiring Americans & paying a much higher wage than the illegals.
I knew what life was like pre NAFTA.
100% agree. However, those wages are going up. I have noticed that landscapers are charging outrageous rates in my area. If the trend continues I might just buy a truck, trailer, and some equipment….
And one population that traditionally did cheap labor, teens, is too busy studying, or volunteering at the soup kitchen to pad their college entrance resume.
>we need to bring people in to do the jobs no one is willing to do
Boomer take from the 90s. If you reduce labor supply, you increase wages. They’re importing people to reduce YOUR wages. But you’ll never be convinced
Plenty of studies have contradicted that particular bit of conventional wisdom. Similar to the canard that increasing minimum wage eliminates jobs.
Sometimes Econ 101 is too simple to be useful.
If one has a good economy more people don’t “take jobs”…the economy grows and creates even more job demand.
But in a poor economy, immigration can increase jobless rates.
Finally, I don’t think the US is anti immigrant. There is a stark difference between legal and illegal immigration. Not to be political but I sadly see little talk of legal immigration policy revisions but maybe it just gets drowned out
numbers – “increasing minimum wage eliminates jobs is a canard?”
The true minimum wage is and always has been zero! There comes a point where the increase in pay makes the business unprofitable. You then either shut your doors or automate.
Russell
Even the cost of slave labor wasn’t “zero.” Owners had to provide housing and food and other essentials to keep their slaves in working condition for as long as possible. Slave labor was very popular with businesses. Sounds like you want your slave labor back, but this time minus the housing and food?
Wolf – What I was actually saying was that you don’t have to hire anyone. I realize there is cost to any form of labor. Even automation has a cost but from a salary standpoint you have a choice. If you decide the cost is too high, you look for other options.
Natural pollination increase of 0.2% annual and dropping means that if the immigration crackdown continues, that will be us in just a couple of years. I wonder how much we will all be ok with being a shrinking proportion of the world’s population (and therefore world power).
Population not pollination
Doesn’t the US have laws on employers not to hire illegal immigrants?
Apparently, none that are enforced.
@RB – outside of mostly government jobs, reporting is only on a voluntary basis.
It’s kinda funny when you say it out loud…
RB,
All W-2 (wage) employees in the US are required to have an I-9 form on file with the employer. Nothing voluntary about the requirement, but, as Kirk noted, the form never gets transmitted to the government. It only becomes relevant during an employment audit (I believe this is in the domain of ICE). The lack of reporting along with the slipshod enforcement renders the system very leaky. As long as these opportunities exist, migrants will appear to fill these rolls.
Plenty of illegals will gravitate to work where they get paid in cash or under the table. No pesky paperwork that way.
Population can pick up just fine if tptb quits trying to artificially push down mortgage rates or use whatever other gimmicks, such as tax breaks, to try and support high house values, but really, the wear and congestion on the roads, dwindling water supply, spiking electric rates in some places is enough already. This trying to have never ending growth is sick and unnecessary, just attempting to sustain too much debt and bubble asset prices.
There are 1.4 billion people in China. China is about the size of the lower 48. Even mid-size cities in China have 10 million inhabitants. It is perfectly normal for Chinese people, squeezed together so tightly, to choose to have fewer children. China will be a great country even with a smaller population. When I was born, there were about 2.5 billion people on this planet. Now there are 8.3 billion. Human beings went nuts during this time. It’s time for people to be rational about it, and as we can see in the fertility rates, people are being rational about it. Humans are not all that dumb.
Wolf Richter wrote: “Humans are not all that dumb.”
George Carlin stated: “Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
I think the problem is that all of our institutions and expectations for decades have been oriented toward growth and no one has any idea how to deal with a shrinking population. There will likely be a lot of counterproductive policies before people finally get used to it. Including policies to try and juice birth rates – which, as far as I can tell, haven’t really worked anywhere they were tried.
Less people isn’t the issue. We’ve had less people. How you get to less people within systems designed for continual growth is the tough part and it will cause some pain.
That population is likely already a bit smaller. From Gemini:
“China’s official population census data have been widely questioned by analysts and researchers, who argue that the figures are systematically inflated. Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, claims that China’s population is overstated by about 130 million people, suggesting the true population in 2020 was closer to 1.28 billion rather than the officially reported 1.412 billion. He attributes this discrepancy to deliberate manipulation by local and national authorities to secure more government funding for education, pensions, and poverty alleviation, as higher population figures lead to larger fiscal transfers.
The inconsistencies stem from multiple sources: inflated birth and school enrollment data, underreported deaths, and revisions to census results—such as Fujian province’s population being revised from 33.29 million to 36.89 million in 2010.”
I don’t agree that this is a good thing. Only 2 ways to grow an economy(GDP)-increase the number of people working, or increase how much each worker produces. Immigration has always been the secret sauce that helps America’s economy grow, so that Debt/GDP stays manageable, and the borderline Ponzi scheme programs like Social Security stay solvent. Low immigration/low birth rate countries like Japan and Italy have seen poor Economic growth the past few decades, and that will be our future as well if we choke off immigration and the younger generations don’t start having more kids.
This is ridiculous. Increasing the economy doesn’t help Americans when its fruits are now shared by more people.
Jesus….. facepalm….
Do you not realize that the size of the pie
Do you not realize that the pie grows larger as well? Fruits are shared by more people, but there are also more fruits.
Immigrants eat food (which they have to buy), they buy clothes/gas/housing/furniture/etc. All which creates jobs for other people.
So many businesses were started by immigrants. They provide jobs and multiply economic activity.
I don’t want the next Google or Tesla or whatever to be started in Canada or India or China. I would prefer those type of companies get started in America so America can benefit from them.
Isn’t it obvious by now immigration has irreversibly changed to cultural and social norms of not only England but also the majority of the Western European countries? The rise of the EU’s populist right is a consequence, not a cause.
The number of children that must be born to sustain a stable population from one generation to another in developed countries requires an average of 2.1 children per woman. In 2024, China’s fertility rate was only 1.01 births per woman. In 1990 it was 2.51.
Apparently after increasing for generations the average IQ of an American is now decreasing. Is that an indirect effect of immigration or just an indication of human devolution.
Negative population growth may be necessary if AI and robotics replace workers as many people think it will. The productivity per person will increase rapidly if technology replaces people. The working population will age pretty rapidly. but your care worker in the nursing home may well have to be a robot. Welcome to the new world!
One can also increase the value of what each worker produces.
Willy K
1. For people, economic growth per se is meaningless. What is meaningful for people is per-capita economic growth.
2. Economic growth this year is rocking and rolling.
3. Some controlled immigration is fine. Illegal immigration is not fine. It’s a form of wage repression, including wages of legal immigrants and people at the lower end of the pay scales.
Wolf, honest question. What is your take on point nr. 2?
I have some thoughts, centered on the impact on GDP from the changes in goods & services trade deficit last year, but I’d love to hear your thoughts. Are we actually rocking & rolling?
Q4 real GDP growth is going to be good, or even hot. Q2 real GDP +3.8%, Q3 +4.4%. These are hot growth numbers for the US. The 10-year and 15-year average growth is just over 2%.
Consumer sentiment surveys have become irrelevant measures of political party preference, with Democrat-leaning consumers feeling depressed and Republican-leaning consumers riding on cloud 9. And when the surveys oversample Democrat-leaning consumers, the averages tank, see U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (it publishes separate data by party preference)
If we want younger generations to start having more kids, we gotta stop policies, done by both parties, trying to sustain high home values, like Trump’s recent one of having the govt, by adding 200 billion more to the US natl debt, buy 200 billion more (they already have 2 trillion) in mortgage bonds. This govt meddling with rates is why there is the big problem of prices being too high, and people hoarding houses for speculation, which then caused sales to tank.
“Over the three years through December 2024, the US population had increased by nearly 9 million people”
Well, there’s the smoking gun for the outsized shelter inflation we saw since 2021. There were only 44 million rental housing units in 2019. The nine million new immigrants had to sleep somewhere, and I’m guessing most of them were sleeping in those rental units. That also drove up investor interest in owning Single Family Residences, which invariably drove up the price of residential real estate. The step function in demand made it impossible to build real estate fast enough to accomodate the immigrants.
Show me the list of Nations with net negative migration and I’ll show you a list of countries where nobody wants to live!!!
Japan. Highest standard of living in the world
Japan is losing population due to aging, not net emigration.
On immigration to Japan:
The number of foreign residents rose by 10.5% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 3.77 million by the end of the year. This marks the third consecutive record high, driven by labor shortages and policy changes.
And speaking as a former Japan resident, the change is visible every time I go back. Many more SE and South Asians.
I think you’re right , and I have my own anecdote to back it up. I just renewed my apartment lease in austin, Texas. I was actually able to squeeze a rent reduction out of my landlord. A paltry 1.7%, but was a welcome relief
H1-B & L1 visas have been a scam for at least 20 years, significantly reducing opportunities for US citizens as knowledge workers.
People have been declaring for years that declining birth rates will lead to a population crisis & huge increase in unfunded SS & Medicare liabilities.
Now, we’re staring down the barrel of the rise of AI & robotics, and we have at least 20M undocumented illegals (12-15M as Trump came into office + 10M under Biden).
Between the 1M or so H1-B / L1 visas, undocumented workers taking up all sorts of jobs in residential construction, for example, & AI / robotics looming large, I would say we’re long overdue for an extended period of negative net migration.
The structural economic & social changes coming our way in the next 10 years will be astounding. Nobody, including little ole me or Musk knows how all of this is going to shake out for us or the Chinese for that matter with 1.42B people.
When compared to millions of jobs added each year in the US, the H!B and L1B workers are a small drop in the bucket. H1B and L1B contribute just 65,000 additional workers a year from countries around the world and all of them work in technology or medical field. These people are the best and brightest countries around the world can offer. Without these visas, the US will have a severe shortage of doctors and and engineers in emerging and specific fields.
“These people are the best and brightest countries around the world can offer. Without these visas, the US will have a severe shortage of doctors and engineers in emerging and specific fields.”
Both of these statements have been parroted over & over again for at least 20 years as being true. However, I’ve never seen anything that definitively established your conjecture as being factually true.
And even if it were true, which it’s not, why do we want to keep giving 1M knowledge worker jobs to people here on visas as AI & robotics rise up & change the labor market in ways that we can’t even predict yet? And I’m not talking about the upside.
Today, we’re in the AI honeymoon phased. It’s making lots of people better at their jobs as they master it. Wolf has laid out a case that the AI bubble will likely burst in some ways. He’s really attuned to the capital / valuations side of things.
All I’m saying is that there will be all sorts of needed policy adjustments as AI & robotics evolve towards human parity & beyond. And these thresholds are not years & years down the road. Therefore, IMHO I think it’s crazy to think that we’re not on the cusp of needing to end H1-B & L1 visas.
What will all the rich San Franciscans and Bay Area wealthy do for housekeepers, gardeners, mechanics, bodyguards, plumbers, electricians, waiters/waitresses, etc.? On top of population stagnation, many want to move out of state due to a prohibitive cost of living. Five alarm fire dead ahead?
These rich people may have to pay more to hire their housekeepers. That would be a great thing.
That’s what a labor market does very well, if left alone: supply and demand. Unlimited supply (open borders, offshoring) puts downward pressure on the price of labor. Tight supply increases the price of labor, as we saw during the labor shortages.
Also, increased price of labor can increase the supply of labor, especially if inflation increases. Some of the early retirees might reenter the work force, at least part time, if enticed by high pay or forced by higher cost of living. Others might work overtime or a second job for the same reasons.
Big business will not like lower demand for its products and having to pay higher wages. Housing prices should also come down. Good news for the average joe, bad news for Wall Street (boo-hoo).
Wouldn’t the negative immigration impact the rental market more than the for sale market
When rental demand drops, rent prices drop
When rent prices drop a few things happen:
1. If renting is significantly cheaper people rent longer, reducing buyer demand
2. With rents down, the price of a property to cash flow needs to be lower. This pull investment buyer demand out
3. If rents drop far enough and property taxes, ins and maintenance keep going up – investors who bought in the last few years may start losing lots of money and sell this increasing supply
When buyer demand is reduced further – prices drop or people continue to pull their properties because they can’t get a 2021 price for it
@Hudson
Rental prices have dropped and vacancies have already shot up in central FL big time. Investors are pulling out because of shrinking margins and oversupply of new homes that push down resale home prices.
There’s always winners and loses in any price/supply change.
I think the biggest issue is the silver tsunami. You can’t ignore aging demographic dying off in large numbers soon. I’ve been to 50 open houses in a month and am shocked at the number homes that went through probate or were owned by a senior who had to move into assisted living or with relatives.
America could be Japan 2.0 or Italy 2.0 in a decade or two.
Wolf, this is crazy – your article is being purposefully read as an anti-immigration narrative. People have cornered themselves into believing that any positive societal effect of slowing population growth is a testament to anti-immigration and that any negative effects can simply be ignored to serve their biases.
I see, read and understand your wording is very careful and you can’t control how people absorb information – but this is the starkest example of confirmation bias I’ve seen.
If I’m being stupid – call me out. Thanks for everything.
Your correct, the “illegal immigrant ” is a mantra or stigma in our society today. Thank goodness we have both
What I see in the comments is not anti immigration, but anti illegal immigration. There are many people who would love to emigrate here, but legally. I have written to both my Senators, Warren and Markey to introduce an immigration reform bill. Time to address the issue, fix the problem. Make it easier to emigrate to the US. Needless to say, I’ve heard nothing back as of this date.
Candyman…..The process of becoming a citizen has been noted in legal mumbo jumbo. I know of a person who has tried. At the immigration hearings, legally binding, attorney’s hang out to canvas applicants.
This person can’t do the process alone, being a civil matter a public defender is not assigned per criminal code. The retainer for service is $5,000. That was 8 years ago. The person is working in the kitchen of a restaurant, no guarantee of employment or settlement of their case. The clock keeps ticking
We’ve been through this process. Works fine without lawyer, works actually better without lawyer, and is designed to work without lawyer. But you do have to be able to speak English and be able to read and complete the forms, and be able to make it through an in-person meeting with an immigration official (in the US) or a consular officer (overseas). The process was not simple, but very doable.
I have experienced first hand filing Citizenship application and per my experience, It was super easy and didn’t need absolutely any help from any lawyer at any stage.
Senators, Warren and Markey can introduce as .any immigration bills as they want. It will not matter. It is a complete waste of time and energy (that is why you haven’t heard from them). They might as well introduce bills advocating for perpetual motion machines and time machines.
They have absolutely no power to introduce bills that will ever see a vote.
ZPG took 50 years to take hold. But I’m still waiting for legal weed.
“The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice…”
I enjoyed this article, many scenarios to think about, thanks.
As I have long stated, our economy is based on expansion like a cancer cell. And without immigration, that model is done. Wages are going to rise, and inflation is here to stay, except for everything depending on that huge flow of new serfs.
Our organic birth rate is pathetic, as is every maturing economy in the world, because our society doesn’t accommodate children except as a luxury good. Same thing in China.
Now, I want to see how many people are actually rich visa overstays running businesses, or living in California. How about those Asian sexploitation massage parlors full of tourists? Sex workers will benefit from removing all the cheap imports.
In short, just wait. Real estate prices have reflected the past, and here comes a lack of demand.
While I agree with the cancer/growth analogy… the biggest issue facing the US is the aging demographic that is crushing SS and flood the real estate market with “neglected boomer homes”
I’ve seen it first hand here in central FL. Homes built in 1960s are now flooding the market. Right at the time when the first owners are dying and when new builds are popping up everywhere. There will be a glut of homes in a decade. If you believe in supply/demand.. you know where prices will head.
Those 1960s Florida homes will be expensive to insure, if they’re insurable at all. That’s why new homes get sold, among other factors like cheaper financing.
If the govt would quit trying to push down mortgage rates, with debt or whatever else, a glut of homes will be great for housing affordability, the lack of which is a big factor in the aging demographic due to prices too high for young people.
Nothing will grow forever.. Population increase (supply of labor) causes poor living standards and declining wages. Lower population is good for the workers. Particularly when technology like AI and robots are taking away a lot of jobs.
Population crawl seems to be reflective in our weekly unemployment numbers. Definitely unemployment claims are trending down. 182k is a multi decade low. Maybe 194k tomorrow? Will 182k will be breached to the downside soon? Labor shortage like post covid for basic services up to bat soon? It’s pretty hard to hire someone under $20 per hour, Small business are hurting to find dependable labor at cost that doesn’t put them into the red.
Trump elected 2016 trend down. Biden 2020 trend up. Trump 2024 trend down.
Obama down from Bush though!
The main problem with economics is that it treats GDP growth as an unassailable good that trumps all human metrics. Since population growth, in general, causes economic growth, economists say mass immigration is good because in their morality the Holy Grail of economic growth is being achieved. Add in aging ponzi social programs, and population growth becomes urgent.
Economists do not care if the social makeup in your country changes, if your schools or hospitals are swamped, if immigrants don’t assimilate, if they mooch off the ponzi programs, if crime increases, if housing prices goes up due to supply demand missmatch, if roads and infrastructure don’t keep up, if federal parks start to require reservations to get in, if green spaces in your neighborhood are built over for housing in-fill, if trash clogs what parks that remain because immigrants from the third world don’t care.
The bottom line is if someone just wants things to stay mostly the same and live in low density areas with people they pretty much grew up with, economists hate their guts.
You seem to be unaware of the entire field of economics called steady-state economics.
Most mainstream people dislike it because it’s goal is to have economies that are compatible with sustainable levels of resource uses, rather than overconsumption.
Economists don’t care if crime increases, if housing prices go up, if infrastruction is underfunded? Go back to school, guy!
Some people prefer horseback riding, most others however recognize the value of cars.
Things change. Adapt or die.
Go to almost any small town in the Midwest or Great Plains.
You don’t want a declining population.
A declining population will certainly bring some negatives. Just as a quickly growing population brings some negatives. What those negatives are, and who they hit hardest, will be different. But they can be handled. Yes, people living in rural areas will be hurt – land prices down, retail down, no doctors nearby (even now, in West Texas, some pregnant women have no OB/GYN doctors within 100 miles or more, and the same to get to a hospital that has a department for delivering babies). Japan is already seeing this, as are places in Italy (buy a house for one euro, but you have to live there and do necessary repairs). Look at Detroit, and some of the suburbs that have essentially depopulated (best to return the land to agricultural uses). Can the US sustain a higher population? Yes. But is that really the best for the majority of its population, and the world in general? Probably not.
Complete BS.
We need Legislative immigration reform that leads to controlled, vetted, legal immigration. Having swings from administration to administration causes lots of strains in society. Both massive social and economic issues.
I may be delusional but I think the Fed will have to stop lowering rates due to inflation rising and unemployment lowering. This mass deportation will put the handcuffs on the Fed actions by changing the data. Core PPI Friday 3.7 or 3.6%. A labor shortage and soon to be lower productivity in manual labor jobs that is occurring will only increase prices. I am in the camp deportation will be a significant reason when the bubble pops(any day) that Fed will not be able to act to reflate. We could pivot on immigration policy, if we get inverted with inflation above unemployment rate.
West Canadian Select is the cheapest oil in the world. If Alberta gov
secede with her oil, the US population will grow. Canada can break
apart, adding Alberta as the 51st state, first, before the rest, ex Quebec.
You have been watching too much nutty news. If the people of Alberta somehow secede, they will not want to join the U.S.
Just ask them.
Capitalism has always been dependent on increasing populations. In the not too distant past, both democrats and republicans have sometimes looked the other way when it came to illegal immigration. Democrats liked it because it increases their base. Republicans liked it because it was good for business(actually this also included a lot of Democrats). Recently of course, Republicans have turned the other way, but that is only because of what knucklehead Joe did with our border. Things will probably go back to where they were in the next few years. Hopefully the government will make legal immigration easier and more efficient. Some people do not seem to like immigrants because they think it takes away jobs, but as I understand it, all economists alive and dead(Karl Marx to Milton Freedman) have all agreed that increasing populations are more good than bad for any society.
“Capitalism has always been dependent on increasing populations.”
Completely false. Grifter nations run by greedy sociopaths require what you outline. Capitalism has really has only one central tenant, specifically, that capital (in all it’s forms) is respected. This requires an intelligent, quantifiable measuring stick and a real justice (not “just us”) system that insures the social contract and rule of law. Capitalism does not require infinite population growth, nor forever inflation. In fact deflation is expected, it’s part of the business and innovation cycle. If you make bad decisions and you business or corporations go bust, ALL of your assets are sold at market value to pay your creditors. The government insures the average depositor, but it has limits. The reason for limits and actually allowing corporations/people to FAIL and experience real pain is because this levels the playing field cause people to actually think about how they deploy their capital. Remember inflation crushes people at the bottom of the economic pyramid while deflation crushes those at the top. Rewarding bad behavior and printing over problem to buy CONgress will crush us all eventually. If you didn’t get the memo before 2008, the response to the great financial fraud (it wasn’t a “crisis” it was in fact fraud), that should have been your wake up call. Look at all the indicators. Yields are rising, but so is the “market” and gold. This has never occurred in the American economy, but it has in others. Do your own research, pick up a history book, it might save your life, your business, and that of your friends/family. We live in “interesting times”.
“… deflation crushes those at the top”
Not really. They are affected by inflation, and don’t like it.
It’s not how much they have, it’s how little the bottom have. So deflation makes their money worth more.
Yes. Maintaining purchasing power is important to a functioning economy. If only we executed people for financial crimes/fraud (like China does) then you would have seen a much different outcome from the great financial fraud of 2008. Instead, things are now exponentially worse.
If you reward bad behavior, especially at all levels of society, guess what? Don’t be surprised if more people behave badly. The folks at the top have been enjoying socialism for quite some time now. That needs to end.
Not exactly. If the top sees their assets decrease in value by 50%, then the bottom can buy twice as much food.
I don’t think that is a bad thing. In fact, that what should happen. Enough of this socialization of corporate losses while the same management and corporate owners keep the profits. It only lead to greater inequities and guillotines. History is very clear on that.
I am really curious why you think deflation crushes those at the top? What evidence do you have for this?
Those at the top benefit most from constant catastrophy because they have the resources to adapt and change. Those at the bottom whose lifestyle is tied to their jobs at the big local company are the one’s who suffer. They cannot adapt because they do not have the resources.
If there is deflation, those at the top will just figure out a way to pay their employees less (wages are more commission based tied to sales price) and pressure their suppliers to lower prices and life will go on just fine for them.
People who constantly call for deflation do not realize that it also means that it is likely that their pay will decrease.
Agreed. Very intelligent comment. :)
I only watch cnbc on fed day, one of their broadcasters just said the US dollar is rising as a result of the Fed statement, in reality the dollar rise just paused at 2 pm. Will see what happens after the Fed chairman talk, $tnx is rising!!!
I’m not sure it’s a tenant of capitalism rather markets themselves….and that is all require a very poor labor pool, be it slaves, serfs or 3rd world/developing country or one with weak relative dollar, etc
Someone would have to point me to a time in humanity where this was not true.
The $ dropped as the money supply soared.
“Lots of new supply and slow population growth may solve a lot of problems in the housing market.”
It would interesting to see annual “new household formation” added to that population bar chart by year.
I wonder if the massive recalculation of population by DC has been paralleled by a similarly sized recalculation of household formation.
Both would go a *long* way to explaining the rent inflation nightmare of 2021-2022.
(Also good place to note “success rate” of social engineering by US equivalent of central planners…)
It’s all fools’ gold my friend.
People want to come to the United States and thankfully, that isn’t going to change.
I said at least 40 years ago, forget about what politicians say about immigration and look what is happening. BUSINESSES LOVED ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. So everyone looked the other way. So possibly if illegals were made legal they wouldn’t be able to be taken advantage of.
Ronald Reagan said you can immigrate to Germany but you can’t be German. You can immigrate to Japan but you can’t be Japanese. But if you immigrate to the United States you’re an American.
Population decline probably won’t bring down house prices. There are many cities and states with population declines and rising house prices.
The free availability of debt is a driver of prices. There are many who take on large debts and lenders willing to lend to them, the largest lender being the US government via its GSE’s.
The residential real estate system transaction system itself naturally boosts house prices. Both agents in the transaction are paid by the seller, both make more money on higher prices. One lists, one brings in the buyers. Higher sales prices yields more money for both.
Very low interest rates led to money seeking return flowing into assets like real estate, creating a self-reinforcing upward pattern.
Demand is certainly a factor, and it can be non-end-user demand, like investor demand. Investment behavior is seen in both buyers who want to live in the house as well as buyers who wish to rent.
So, don’t count on declining population by itself to reduce house prices.