What I See Ahead for the Chip Shortage & Used Car Prices. Bond Market Reacts to Inflation. The Inflection Point for Real Estate

Wolf Richter with Jim Goddard on HoweStreet.com Radio. Once-in-a-life-time mess, at least in my lifetime. Recorded Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022.

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  89 comments for “What I See Ahead for the Chip Shortage & Used Car Prices. Bond Market Reacts to Inflation. The Inflection Point for Real Estate

  1. Pete Koziar says:

    Always interesting, and I learned a couple of things. I never realized that housing prices follow the stock market.

    I also never realized how much the statistics have been distorted by the various loan forbearance plans out there.

    I do have some money in REITs that are invested in fairly large, multi-unit apartment complexes outside of the “hot” areas. It seems to me, since the appeal to me is mostly cash-flow and not appreciation, that they would be a good inflation hedge. Or, am I just imagining things?

    • 2banana says:

      Rents generally keep up with inflation, especially away from areas that have state/local government agencies who think they have a grand vision of setting the price.

      • TonyT says:

        But if rents are already inflated…
        Also, if the economic situation changes (e.g. a repeat of the SV Dot-bomb implosion), rents can drop 30% or more.

      • georgist says:

        rents keep up with wage inflation.

        inflation eats into wages leaving less income to bid up rents.

        more than one “type” of inflation.

        • LK says:

          Going to be interesting to see what happens if all these highly-compensated tech workers in remote situations suddenly find themselves competing with the international market, as compensation becomes unplugged from locality and tied to a global market rate for services.

          I count myself among that population.

        • Wolf Richter says:

          LK,

          Already happening. Big piece on Bloomberg today. Now it’s South America (Brazil, Argentina, etc.), nearly the same time zones as the US and lots of skilled folks who’ll work for a lot less than a Bay Area developer.

          Personally, I have already dealt with a person on the phone in Latin America when I was shopping for a new “managed” server for this site in August 2021. That US company is using specialists in Latin America to deal with the issues I wanted to discuss. This was not good. And I chose to go with a different US company where I talked to a guy in Austin and a couple of guys in Chicago.

        • georgist says:

          There is a massive global shortage of quality developers.

          We are looking all over the world, willing to sort visas etc.

          Often offshore staff lack the key knowledge. Can they learn? Yes, but you still need a team lead to bootstrap it.

          It’s not as simple as just firing everyone in the USA and hiring in Chile.

    • Augustus Frost says:

      The 21st century correlation is the result of the mania. It’s the result of (artificially) cheap money and loose credit standards inflating both.

      In the 1970’s, the correlation was often negative.

      From 1942-1966, mostly positive, since real estate did not decline.

  2. phleep says:

    Great insights on the extend-and-pretend underneath the supposedly financially sound consumers. Good details on time frames for clearing some of the supply chain stuff, cars and chips and so on.

    • Augustus Frost says:

      Well, it’s easy to “cure” delinquencies when the least credit worthy segments of the population don’t have to make payments.

      The more interesting future questions is, why should anyone bother to make payments on anything?

      Since there is supposedly no consequence from this reckless policy and debtor behavior, borrow as much as you possibly can and live for the moment.

      That will really turn out great, won’t it?

  3. J-Pow!!! says:

    I need to steal more of people’s money before I raise rates and do the boom/crash trick.

  4. Brewski says:

    Hyperinflation is built into the Fed’s “very easy money” policies.

    My guess is that it will get ugly as prices continue to rise.

    B

  5. TheRealMRDyno says:

    We are down to brokers for some chips now, zero stock in the world at distributors or manufacturers. Prices are 5-13 times normal. Next ship dates from manufacturers are 9/2022 through 2/2023.

    • Michael Gorback says:

      Source?

      • Wolf Richter says:

        “We are down to…”

        I read this as meaning: at the company where TheRealMRDyno works.

        • TheRealMRDyno says:

          Yes, for the boards we make (have made) ourselves. $17k today on an embedded controller MCU chip order that should have been $1300.

    • Jon W says:

      Hmm looking on mouser or Digi-Key things seem better now than the end of last year. I mean, definitely still rubbish but some auto chips like LIN transceivers are showing deliveries for July this year! Also STM32 have actual delivery dates this side of the new year which is a huge improvement. At one point they would say ‘due 2025!’

      Prices are up big time though but I’d rather that than no parts for years.

      • Harvey Mushman says:

        Yeah I work extensively with the STM32 family of microcontrollers. I’ve been a little worried about availability.

      • Wisoot says:

        2025 ! The person who advised you this date likes to over exagerate for effect. Question is why. Who benefits if the market supply is squeezed. What purpose does a delay to market serve? Whose agenda does that interfere with? What alternative avenues are you then being forced to go down? A game of strategy.

  6. Depth Charge says:

    At a certain point there’s going to be a massive chip glut. It could already be here, it’s just hard to know because there could be some hoarding going on. As somebody mentioned, now there are “chip brokers.” These people are just taking a cut, kind of like the lumber brokers who showed up to leach some money out of the sector.

    • Reasonable Guy says:

      Indeed, I’m curious how this will play out. These situations always result in multiple orders being placed. When inventory becomes available, the duplicate/phantom orders get cancelled and it goes from shortage to surplus very quickly.

      • Wolf Richter says:

        Reasonable Guy,

        I have heard that chip makers are now taking non-cancelable orders, and that desperate customers are agreeing to them.

    • TheRealMRDyno says:

      They call themselves brokers, I call them scalpers. On the other hand, no scalpers, no production for us. I think the manufacturers are prioritizing chips used in consumer items, as I’m seeing next ship dates for embedded controller items in 2023 – so I guess they are making other things in the mean time.

  7. Peanut Gallery says:

    The background intro music right at the beginning of the podcast… wow

  8. Harry Houndstooth says:

    Clearly, further support that the money is to made on the short side.

    • sunny129 says:

      Finally!

      Some one is getting the message about the money to be made on the short side’

      This is what I am drumming about being in UNCORRELATED assets -(includes) going against the mkts, as this 3rd largest ‘everything’ bubble keeps leaking, everyday of the week!
      One message is crystal clear: Without FED there is NO mkt of any kind anywhere in the world! NO MORE Fed’s PUT!

      Retail investors are NOT used, trained or experienced enough to GO AGAINST the mkt, historically, especially after being pavlovian induced coma by Fed’s PUT since ’09! Most of them will end up holding the bag just like in previous bear mkts (2000 & 2008).

      One has to be knowledgeble about using risk management tools like OPTION trading, which I find very few at WS comment threads! The other choice is using BEAR MFunds which are slow and stodgy. There are of course leveraged INVERSE ETFs which are deadly to handle for most of the novice who wntered the mkts after ’09! Those who cash out NOW are the lucky ones. REST will follow ‘Greed vs FEAR, FOMO/ blind faith in Fed, will be the ultimate bag holders.

      Even if the S&P loses 60% or more, still it would be ABOVE the fair value is a most startling data, staring out at the investors. One can poofa and ignore this, at their own financial peril.

      • drifterprof says:

        I’m not skilled enough to short the market by doing something like shorting SVXY (inverse half short VIX fund).

        I’ve been thinking that my having gone to 90% cash (of my previous investment allocation) is a way of shorting the market.

        • Old school says:

          I was with you, but Fed scared me out of that position with inflation so I stacked some silver, gold and platinum, bought a big gold miner and a another stock with no debt that pays about 5% dividend. Still about 75% cash expecting a asset burst.

  9. Michael Gorback says:

    Auto makers are deprioritzed by chip makers due to low sales, but low sales are at least in part because of the chip shortage. Did I interpret this correctly? It’s an absurd circular situation. If car makers upped their offer for chips this cycle should be broken. Why hasn’t this happened? If I were closing my auto plants because chips were going to cell phone companies I think I’d opt to pay more for chips. Something doesn’t make sense here.

    If used car prices are high, then shouldn’t trade in values help offset the price of a new purchase?

    I have noticed some for sale signs popping up in my neighborhood, which has not had one for about 2 years. Not sure of the significance, but it’s definitely different.

    Meanwhile I suggest a trip down memory lane on youtube to listen to Thunderclap Newman’s “Something in the Air”. When food, water,and shelter become scarce, you’re looking at France under Louis XVI. Are we at 1787 or 1789? 1/6 is being touted as a 1789 moment but it obviously wasn’t. IMHO were at 1787.

    I’m amazed that the people of Rotterdam haven’t torched the shipyard where Bezos is building his super yacht. Instead citizens of Rotterdam have threatened to throw eggs at the yacht as it passes by the site where they had to dismantle an historical bridge to get the boat out to sea.

    Put something tangible in the mix like a food or energy shortage and those eggs will be molotov cocktails. Most people are clueless about why there monetary problems and shortages, but when they can’t feed or clothe their children Bezos starts to look like Marie Antoinette.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Michael Gorback,

      “Auto makers are deprioritzed by chip makers due to low sales, but low sales are at least in part because of the chip shortage. Did I interpret this correctly?”

      No. I need to clarify. What I meant was this:

      Even in a normal year, but particularly during the pandemic, consumers and companies purchased more consumer electronics devices (smartphones, laptops, routers, TV and music systems, 8-screen-day-trading rigs, etc.) and commercial electronics systems (from automated point-of-sale systems ski areas installed to large-scale networks and hardware for data centers and crypto mining rigs whose sales exploded with exploding crypto prices) than they purchased new vehicles.

      This is the case in any year. But it was particularly the case during the pandemic because there was an incredible boom in sales of consumer electronics and commercial electronics that blew away all records. This put a huge strain on semiconductor production capacity – that was already handicapped by issues such as plant closings.

      Auto production didn’t set any records and put no strain on the semiconductor capacity. And chip makers went where they could get the most money – consumer and commercial electronics, and auto makers got de-prioritized.

      This has turned into a massive problem for economies that are heavy into in auto and auto-components production, such as Germany and Japan — and the governments there have had discussions with the chip makers about this issue.

      • Michael Gorback says:

        Appreciate the clarification but as they say money talks, BS walks. If I made cars for a living and I had a bunch of unsellable stock sitting around worth tens of thousands per unit rusting away due to a chip shortage, I’d bid the living crap out of the chip market.

        What am I missing here? Is it more worthwhile to close a factory than to bid up a chip?

        This isn’t in my wheelhouse but it doesn’t pass the smell test.

      • Gabby Cat says:

        I must admit I allowed my children to purchase computers, cell phones, and iPads in 2020 when they switched to online school. It was a local store package. I was tired of sharing my computer and iPhone with the school. It was a rough go. Almost every parent in our school district did the same thing. The schools did not have the electronics to send home. I am sure that helped to contribute to the demand on chips.

        • Wolf Richter says:

          Gabby Cat,

          Yes, absolutely, that was part of it. Remember the infamous laptop shortage that cropped up at the low end, such as with the Chromobooks?

    • jm says:

      It isn’t Bezos who’s building the superyacht. It’s a Dutch company that’s one of the world’s leading builders of superyachts – perhaps THE leading builder of superyachts. So they must bring in quite a lot of money to the city’s economy. That’s why the government is happy to temporarily dismantle part of the bridge for them to get Bezos boat to the sea.

      • Michael Gorback says:

        Let Bezos pay for dismantling and rebuilding the bridge. This is 100% grade A BS. The kind that we’ve been bitching about here for years.

        I’m tired of the billionaire quasi-royalty bigfooting us.

        • Wisoot says:

          Saw last week a super yacht tour in Antartica for select few. Heli skiing. Carving up the ice … for pleasure because thats what ignorant do. And 70 comments – well done; super; amazing; great job.
          You couldn’t make it up. Pleased to see a few comments with a reality check tone.

    • Hal says:

      I’m sure a lot folks in Rotterdam are quite happy about the massive economic boost provided by the guy who wants a big boat. I doubt many will actually throw eggs, much less torch the golden goose yard.

      • Michael Gorback says:

        Yep, throw some chicken feed to the lesser beings and full speed ahead.

        • Wisoot says:

          Until the satellite energy tesla beam gets you! Birds dropping from sky. Its started. Not even a super yacht is immune.

    • Depth Charge says:

      “Put something tangible in the mix like a food or energy shortage and those eggs will be molotov cocktails. Most people are clueless about why there monetary problems and shortages, but when they can’t feed or clothe their children Bezos starts to look like Marie Antoinette.”

      Couldn’t happen to a more deserving person, IMO.

    • masked ghost says:

      Michael Gorback wrote: ” …. When food, water,and shelter become scarce, you’re looking at France under Louis XVI. Are we at 1787 or 1789? 1/6 is being touted as a 1789 moment but it obviously wasn’t. IMHO were at 1787….

      IMHO you are off by almost 2,000 years. The USA today is more like Rome in 133 BC. That was when the Minority Party (the Patricians) sent their Mob to murder the elected Tribune. Then they did it again in 122 BC.

      If it sounds like Jan. 6, 2021, it is because it is. Even the issues are the same, economic redistribution of land, and the concentration of wealth into fewer and fewer hands.

      • Michael Gorback says:

        As a student of ancient Roman history I’m not going to argue about this, other than to say the collapse of Rome was nothing at all like the French Revolution. Do your homework. The causes were completely different.

        • masked ghost says:

          It was not my intent to compare France 1787 to Rome in 133 BC. Only Rome to the USA in 2021.

          The murder of the popularly elected Tribunes had nothing to do with the fall of the Western Roman Empire, that was over 600 years later. It is related to the decline of the Roman Republic (and the USA today still claims to be a Republic).

          There are similarities to all 3, elites pushing taxes off on the Peons, and concentration of wealth in fewer hands. You could argue that the French king did not lose control until he could no longer pay his bills. But as long as the US Republic can print money we won’t have that problem.

      • nodecentrepublicansleft says:

        1/6 was about a career criminal and his gang of recently pardoned criminal dimwits (cone-head Roger Stone and foreign agent Mike Flynn are good examples) and other “kulture warriors” like Alex Jones a attempting a COUP (stopping the certification of the new President) to keep Red Don in office.

        As in most criminal events, the folks doing the dirty work are ‘short bus people’ (as stated by one of their own private defense attorneys).

        I went to middle school and high school with one who is going to prison…Kelly Meggs. 1/6 will always be a fugly stain on the so called ‘shining city on the hill’. An event so repugnant, I wanted to vomit while watching it.

        All the village idiots talk to each other on facebook now, so quite easy to gin them up to riot when necessary.

    • Old school says:

      I didn’t help Bezos get rich, but I don’t mind him building a $500 luxury ship as it employees a lot of people in construction and probably will cost close to $50 million a year to operate causing more employment.

      It seems like a better use of money than giving it to the government and let them waste it on the welfare/warfare state.

  10. nick kelly says:

    One of top three highest used car appreciation: Nissan Versa!

    Average oil price 2020: 40
    Average oil price 2021: 70
    Oil price now: 94 (This is before Saudi’s announcement of a pending price increase, amount not known)

    At some point a whole bunch of newish 8 cylinder trucks are going to turn into pumpkins.
    But if a guy can afford 50 to 70K for the truck surely he can afford 100 to 150 a week to fill it?
    Next time in traffic as you survey all the empty truck boxes and the lone driver (90 % of the time) ask how many of them are owned outright by the driver.

    BTW: a long time ago I decided that fuel efficiency claims, public and private, were the most BS’ed topic in autos. I’ve owned most types (not super exotics, but Benz, Audi, Volvo), domestics, and all sizes of motor. So when reading some EPA stats that I knew couldn’t be true, I delved for five minutes and the answer popped up: they assume 50 % highway driving. About as manipulated a stat as you’ll find, outside of CPI, to which maybe it is related.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      nick kelly,

      In the US, at least, the average fuel economy is divided into “City” and “Highway.” For example, the 2020 Ford Fusion Hybrid is rated: 43 mpg city and 41 mpg highway. This is only a little higher than what we’re getting in ours that is a little older than that. This high city MPG is due to the regenerative braking that recharges the battery every time you take the foot off the gas. In stop-and-go traffic, this is big. The ICE engine may not even start as the car moves along in stop-and-go traffic on EV power, and recharges the battery as it brakes. The only thing that charges the Fusion’s battery is braking.

      That said, there were numerous scandals, lawsuits, and settlements in the US involving various manufacturers having overstated their EPA MPG. It’s the manufacturer that supplies the MPG figure based on EPA rules. So they can cheat if they want to — and when they get caught, they have to deal with the fallout.

      • VintageVNvet says:

        Just some anecdotal confirmation of MPG ratings the last few decades:
        First new truck of the modern era was 1989 Chevy 1/2 T with 350, auto,,, and could barely make the so called highway mpg when driving very very carefully;;;
        Most recent new truck was ’19 RAM 1500 4×4 with 5.7 ”hemi” that got exactly the highway mpg indicated on the window sticker over a 7,000 mile round trip across USA in summer of ’19…
        Pretty sure these days we get ”real” evaluations.
        OF COURSE it depends on how you drive,,, d’uh

        • Apple says:

          EPA changed their testing methodology about 15 years ago.

          Gasoline is also changed with the addition of less energy dense ethanol in the past 20 years.

        • nick kelly says:

          ‘Most recent new truck was ’19 RAM 1500 4×4 with 5.7 ”hemi” that got exactly the highway mpg indicated on the window sticker over a 7,000 mile round trip across USA..’

          I don’t doubt it got its highway mpg. My quibble is with the EPA assumption that average driving is 50 % highway.

      • nick kelly says:

        My comment was not about small hybrids, which are a good idea and the growing trend but in V8 trucks are still I believe a minority.

        ‘Ford’s 5.0-liter Coyote V8 remains the least efficient of the bunch, as you’d expect. On regular gasoline, 2WD EPA figures stand at 17 City / 24 Highway / 20 Combined mpg’

        • nodecentrepublicansleft says:

          I had the pleasure of renting a mustang recently (the lady at the counter upgraded me from my “economy car” reservation) w/that coyote engine. Fastest car I’ve driven in 3 decades.

          I tried about a dozen times to figure out its 0-100 time from a dead stop and got between 7 and 8 seconds every time.

          Would never buy such a beast but glad they build for it for the guys trying to compensate for the shortcomings between their legs.

          And yeah, when the economy inevitably goes south, all those trucks that the buyers didn’t need and couldn’t afford will become an albatross around their necks.

    • Anthony A. says:

      A friend of mine just rolled into the ROMEO coffee meetup this morning with a NEW F150 “King Ranch” model. He said he bought it as it was being unloaded off the car carrier Saturday at the dealership. This thing is huge (crew cab), has so much new tech in it it’s amazing. Even the tailgate has a remote control function. He said he paid MSRP for it (no premium over sticker). I’ll bet this truck cost $80K.

      It has a 36 gallon tank and at $3/gallon, that’s $100+ per fill up.

      So it looks like Ford is trickling in products.

      • nick kelly says:

        No more comments from me on this topic after this: I sort of get why someone would want power windows, locks, mirrors, seats ( last is a lie) although I don’t want any of them, but WHY would anyone want a remote, and presumably, a power tailgate? Doesn’t someone have to be there to load /unload whatever is going in the box?

    • tom15 says:

      More than a few of us contractors are hoping you are correct.
      Should have added another work truck last year. Could not bring myself to pay the price.

      Fuel? Already tacked on fuel surcharge.

      Hopefully when Biden is done playing wag the dog we will see a top.

      • nodecentrepublicansleft says:

        So you side w/murderer, oligarch (fancy word for mobster) and former KGB agent over the President of the United States of America?

        Good luck w/ that Tom!

    • Old school says:

      There is a good video series on TFL truck comparing Rivian EV truck to IC truck. Rivian had great towing acceleration and towing capacity. But range is the killer. Range of a gasoline IC truck was 2.8 times that of Rivian when towing a light trailer. Roughly 150 miles vs 400.

      They were puzzled that regenerative braking didn’t do much coming down an eight mile mountain pass. They did pick up 2% of battery capacity, but it took close to 20% to make it up the grade.

      It’s a good series if you are interested in an EV truck. A practical problem they ran into is some of the chargers aren’t laid out so you can charge your truck with a trailer connected due to charger station design.

  11. Michael Engel says:

    1) The year of the tiger. A $100 oil might clip the tiger claws. seven hundred millions middle class Chinese might revolt.
    2) More and more cooks and online pickers are staying home.
    We might be entering a recession. We need a diversion.
    4) Shingle mums with 4 kids will get nothing this time around.
    5) The repo trucks will work day and night.
    6) The Fed might give recession a booster by raising rates.
    7) UST10Y x3, 0.0333/ box might reach the zero zone.
    8) Will it go NR…

    • sunny129 says:

      ME

      Oil went up to $120 during 2008! What else is new?

      I invested mostly in fossil fuel including coal, natural gas and oil since the beginning of the year. ESG investment is a delusion in our current consumption based economy ‘still’ on traditional energy resources and the alternate sources are uneconomical, (rely on fossil fuel for production & maintenance!) still hurts the environment. Besides China & India still rely 60-70% on COAL for their current energy needs!

      To each his/her own!

      • Old school says:

        I watched a retired mining CEO and he is pretty clear that mining investment to meet EV demand is not going to be there til mined product prices go up. It’s a long investment cycle and they can’t take the plunge at today’s prices.

        He thinks the timeline for EV adoption is going to keep getting can kicked.

  12. Jackson Y says:

    With inflation above 7.5% and being a hot-button political issue, central bankers have no choice but to act – for the time being.

    However, I could well imagine a scenario in which inflation drops to a still-elevated but more politically tolerable 3 to 4% (whether through some combination of “careful” rate hikes, supply chain disruptions abating, base effects, etc.), the stock market throws a tantrum, and that becomes their new defacto target. The previous 2% PCE target is now effectively a floor instead of a ceiling, as Powell just said in the January press conference there’s no circumstance under which the committee would target inflation below 2%.

    The entire institution is full of shit. Their only loyalties are to Wall Street and their own investment portfolios.

    • Augustus Frost says:

      Open any door and it leads to the same destination.

      The majority of Americans are destined to become poorer or a lot poorer over the indefinite future.

      • Old school says:

        It can happen fast. Inflation overshoots and averages 7.5% for a few years and causes stock market to get cut in half. Retirees going from feeling wealthy to feeling poor as a church mouse as they try to keep up with rising prices.

        • nodecentrepublicansleft says:

          That’s what the Fox “news” cult is hoping for.

          They would slit their own throats happily to ‘own the libs’ for a hot minute!

          Actually, they do slit their own throats…they vote against their economic interests constantly. When Red Don finally gets indicted by NY state, they’ll all scream in unison “but but but her emails!’.

          Only in America can a guy land in a small, backwards rural town (like the one I’m from) in a lear-jet w/his name painted on the side in gold letters, wearing a $4K suit and he puts on a $0.99 trucker hat and the locals look up in amazement and say “LOOK! He’s one of us!!!!”

    • John H. says:

      Jackson Y-

      Good on you for pointing out the possibility that the Fed progresses it PCE target to the next level.

      “Mission Creep” lives in the DNA of the Fed (and government agencies in general), both historically and prospectively.

    • sunny129 says:

      Jackson Y

      ‘ have no choice but to act – for the time being’

      Fed still buying MBSs and Tresuries as of this moment, until March!
      Just JAW BONING statements by FOMC members – oing nowhere!

  13. Michael Engel says:

    9) Cars dealers are full to the rim. The Ambassador bridge is another excuse.

  14. Outwest says:

    The long term NASDAQ chart looks strikingly similar to the profile of Mount Everest. I’ve missed out on a spectacular run up but I’m glad that my future isn’t tied directly to that ugly top. Reminds me of 2000 and 2008 when everyone started running for the exits…first slowly then swiftly.

    • ru82 says:

      I was looking at some of Doug Shorts market valuation metrics. He lists 4 valuation metrics and then averages them. We are not 1, 2, but 3 Standard Deviations above the historical mean line. The only other time since 1900 we were at 3 standard deviation was during the dot.com bust. We were 139% above the man and now we are at 158%.

      1929 was only 2 Standard Deviations.

      It will be a fun year.

      • Old school says:

        I like that chart he does. Hussman has a similar one where he used 3 or 4 different methods. Don’t know if it’s true, but I read that when long term stock valuation a are in the top quintile, you always fall to the bottom quintile. Maybe we will find out this year.

      • nick kelly says:

        This is why I don’t think there can be the inevitable ‘regression to the mean’ without a recession. The mantra from Wall Street and its ‘policy error’ psalm is that normalizing rates might cause a recession. That is not a reason to put it off. It’s the belief that the Fed’s first priority is to avoid recessions that got it, and us, into this mess.

  15. Michael Engel says:

    10) SPX & NDX Feb 2/9 ==> NR, 5TD.

  16. DR DOOM says:

    Most people did not know what the ads were selling during the super bowl. SoFi who bought the name on the tax payer facility is down 50% or so from its highs. My brother thought SoFi was a Red Bull type beverage for gamers. I told him that He like me do not have debt and are outlier dots that are ignored so it does not matter that He nor I know what they do. That said,he has eyes and a good brain and He said Super bowl ads Looks like a final shot at a tech pump and dump just like 2000. He understands pick-up trucks and He has had an order placed for the Ford Maverick pick-up for several months. His wife placed the order for it on-line. He goes over to the Ford Dealership every week and bugs them about it. He’s got nothing better to do after 45 years working in a paper mill. Missed 5 days in 45 years. Last week they told him he might get to see his Vin Number in an email in the un-specified future. He asked the dealership if they could also send pictures of his tires or other parts as they arrive. He pissed them off and went to Mc Donald’s for a senior coffee and Mc Donald’s pissed him off when they charged him full price. This shit is gonna work out great.

    • ru82 says:

      DR Doom. Great story. That made my day! ROTFL

    • Old school says:

      I like using super bowl adds and stadium names like the skyscraper omen. Vanity projects marking the top for the company.

      • nick kelly says:

        Counting cranes is a classic. Even Nanaimo on Van Isle has half a doz or so. In Victoria they are everywhere.

  17. Willy2 says:

    On the topic “(Chip) Shortages”: Jeffrey Snider from Alhambra partners has pointed out that when there are shortages companies start to order e.g. double the amount of stuff than that they actually need for their (monthly) production.
    Snider also pointed out that when companies start to see their invertories growing at a (much) higher rate than (expected) sales then they start to (partially) cancel their orders.
    Looking at inventories Snider sees a (very) large growth of inventories in the laast 3 months of 2021.
    Do combine that with the fact that there still seems to be a large number of ships waiting out at sea to be unloaded in the US ports of Los Angelos & Long Beach and it’s possible that those supposed shortages could be solved in a very small amount of time.
    It’s quite possible that those shortages will go away much sooner than one anticipates.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      We’ve been waiting for those shortages to get solved “in a very small amount of time” for an entire year. Tell Snider that a lot of chip orders now are non-cancellable precisely because there is huge demand and capacity constraints that give chip makers the upper hand with their customers.

      “Looking at inventories Snider sees a (very) large growth of inventories in the laast 3 months of 2021.”

      In terms of new vehicle inventories… in terms of actual vehicles, this is what it looks like:

  18. Winston says:

    These 5 Charts Help Demystify the Global Chip Shortage…and reveal why even infusions of cash from the U.S. and European Union won’t solve it
    IEEE Spectrum – 14 Feb 2022

  19. Michael Gaff says:

    I now own 5 cars and a truck. You people whine about chips, gas mileage, cost of maintenance, etcetera.
    Including the1937 Cord, all of my cars cost less than $20,000, total.
    I have a blanket insurance policy that makes this even feasible.

    Without the Cord, I have spent less than $5,000 on all the vehicles.
    What is wrong with you people?

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