Only exception: San Francisco Bay Area condo prices are down from a year ago.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
House prices soared by 12.0% from a year ago, the biggest increase since February 2006, near the peak of Housing Bubble 1, according to today’s National Case-Shiller Home Price Index for “February,” which reflects the three-month average of sales recorded in public records in December, January, and February.
A measure of “house-price inflation.”
The Case-Shiller Index compares the sales price of a house in the current month to the price of the same house when it sold previously. This “sales pairs method” tracks the amount of dollars it takes to buy the same house over time. Home improvements are included in the methodology. This makes the index the most appropriate measure of house price inflation in the US.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), on the other hand, tracks the housing inflation component based on rents. The CPI for “Owner’s equivalent rent of residence,” weighing about 25% of the overall CPI, is based on homeowners’ estimates about how much their home would rent for, which ticked up 2.0% from a year ago (green line), compared to house price inflation as measured by the Case-Shiller index (red line):
Los Angeles – the #1 most splendid housing bubble:
The Case-Shiller Index for prices of single-family houses in the Los Angeles metro jumped by 1.3% in February from January and by 12% year-over-year. The index value for Los Angeles of 325 indicates house prices in the metro have surged by 225% since January 2000, thereby making Los Angeles the most splendid housing bubble on this list.
Low-tier house prices have exploded in recent years, which they had also done during Housing Bubble 1, and then collapsed the most during the Housing Bust. Year-over-year, low-tier prices are up 12.9% and have quadrupled since 2000 (black line in the chart below).
Mid-tier prices jumped 12.7% and high-tier prices 11.8%. But condo prices (red line) rose “only” 5.9% year-over-year:
House prices in the San Diego metro spiked by 2.9% in February from January and by a holy-moly 17.0% from a year earlier, making it the market with the second-hottest annual house price inflation on today’s list of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, behind Phoenix. Prices have more than tripled (+210%) since 2000:
Seattle house prices spiked by 2.4% in February from January and by 15.4% year-over-year, making it the metro with the third hottest annual house price inflation, behind Phoenix and San Diego. Since 2000, prices have tripled (+200%):
The charts below are on the same scale as Seattle, San Diego, and Los Angeles. As we go down the list, the amount of white space above the price area grows, indicating that over the past 20 years, the other metros have experienced somewhat less house price inflation.
San Francisco Bay Area:
House prices in the five-county San Francisco Bay Area spiked by 2.1% in February from January and by 11.0% year-over-year. They have nearly tripled since 2000 (+198%). The Case-Shiller Index covers the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo (northern part of Silicon Valley), Alameda and Contra Costa (East Bay), and Marin (North Bay):
Condo prices in the San Francisco Bay Area rose 1.1% in February from January, roughly in line with seasonal increases from January, which is generally the low point of the year. Year-over-year condo prices declined by 0.7%, the ninth month in a row of year-over-year declines, leaving the index below where it had first been in March 2018:
New York City metro:
Condo prices in the vast New York City metro (New York City plus numerous counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut), rose 0.5% for the month and were up 1.2% year-over-year, but have remained roughly in the same range since late 2017:
House prices in the New York City metro rose 0.6% in February from January, the smallest month-to-month increase since last July, after the blistering spike late last year. Year-over-year, house prices were up 11.6%:
House prices rose 1.0% for the month and 11% year-over-year and are up 176% since 2000, but they remain a smidgen below the crazy peak of Housing Bubble 1:
In the Portland metro, house prices jumped 1.3% for the month and by 11.4% year-over-year:
In the Washington D.C. metro, house prices rose 1.0% for the month and 11.1% year-over-year:
In the Boston metro, house prices rose 0.9% for the month and soared 13.7% year-over-year. Not included here: condo prices, which are up “only” 4.0% year-over-year:
House prices jumped 1.3% for the month and 12.7% year-over-year:
House prices spiked 1.8% for the month and are up 11.2% year-over-year:
House prices spiked 2.0% for the month and another holy-moly 17.4% year-over-year, giving the Phoenix metro the hottest annual house price inflation among the Splendid Housing Bubbles here, ahead of San Diego and Seattle:
House prices in the Las Vegas metro rose 1.0% for the month and 9.1% year-over-year:
House prices in the Dallas metro jumped 1.4% for the month and 10.9% year-over-year, and are up 116% since 2000, meaning that house price inflation was 116% over the past 20 years. In the remaining cities in the 20-city Case-Shiller Index, the 20-year house price inflation has been less than 100% — for example, Chicago’s 20-year house price inflation is at 56%. This makes Dallas the last entry on this infamous list of the most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America:
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