“Permanent Job Losers” No Better Off Than Last Summer. But Most of the 18 Million Job Losers on Temporary Layoffs Are Working Again

Bringing back permanent job losers took years the last two times, and it hasn’t even started yet.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Employers reported that they have added 916,000 workers to their payrolls in March, and 1.62 million over the past three months (green line in the chart). This brought the total number of jobs at “establishments” – companies, governments, and nonprofits – to 144.1 million, still down 8.4 million jobs from February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning.

Households reported that 609,000 more people were working in March than in February, including gig work, and that over the past three months 1.02 more million more people were working compared to the end of the year, bringing the total number of workers to 150.8 million, still down by 7.9 million from February 2020 (green line):

Temporary job losers return to work. “Permanent job losers” face long struggle.

Of the still unemployed workers, 2.03 million reported being on temporary layoff or furlough in March, the lowest since February 2020, down by 1.01 million over the past three months, and down by 16 million from the peak in April (green columns in the chart below). This includes workers in the discretionary services sector that was hit hardest by the Pandemic, such as gyms, hair salons, bars, restaurants, sports and entertainment venues, airlines, hotels, etc.

But the number of “permanent job losers” declined by only 65,000 in March, and at 3.4 million was higher than it had been in December and in August. In other words, these permanent job losers haven’t made any significant headway in getting back to work (red line):

This employment crisis was very different.

In the prior two employment crises, permanent job losers dominated the scene from day one (red line), and those considered temporary job losers (green columns) weren’t much of a factor. At the time, most of the layoffs were considered permanent.

But at the beginning of the Pandemic, when layoffs exploded from one day to the next, most of those laid off were told to be, and were considered to be, on temporary layoff.

Bringing back these permanent job losers took many years the last two times, and it hasn’t even started this time around:

Labor force in same narrow range since July.

The labor force – people either working or deemed to be looking for a job – in March, at 160.6 million, was still down 3.9 million from February 2020, stuck in the middle of the range that has persisted since July 2020. Still waiting for the breakout:

The employment-population ratio rose, long-term dismal.

The employment-population ratio rose to 57.8%. It compares the number of working people to the working-age population (16 years or older) and is the broadest measure of employment.

Over the past two decades, it has been on a dismal trend. As always, it dropped during each recession. But since 2000, the ratio never fully recovered before the next employment crisis hit.

Ascribe this phenomenon to rampant offshoring of work that takes on a high priority in recessions as companies are cutting costs and are using the cover of the recession to farm work out to cheap countries – not just manufacturing but increasingly services, such as tech work, healthcare, legal work, research, design centers, etc.:

 

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  106 comments for ““Permanent Job Losers” No Better Off Than Last Summer. But Most of the 18 Million Job Losers on Temporary Layoffs Are Working Again

  1. Adam says:

    Bullish, I’m wondering who is still in cash, not on the stock market, inflation is huge these days (no, it’s not 2% haha).

    • Phoneix_Ikki says:

      Me..but I am the kind of idiot that is too stubborn to see the housing or stock market not in a bubble stage and I also enjoy the taste of eggs on my face for many years as all the others have been riding high on this hopium highs

      At some point, maybe I will just cash out all my money in dollar bill and light them on fire for real for a good firework show, that might be kind of fun.

      • Joe Saba says:

        damn, I’ve been working all this time instead of taking free cash
        I still won’t hire under 40 year olds

        have great workers due to covid – family
        dependable, have vehicles and SHOW UP for work
        most times I just text them what to do

        of course they invoice me

    • Thomas Roberts says:

      Last I heard Warren Buffets company, Berkshire Hathaway, still had an enormous amount of cash in the bank, that was pulled out of the stock market.

    • Lisa_Hooker says:

      Cash. Tiny, one stock, investment. No Tesla, no Bitcoin. Only debt a 30 year cheap mortgage. I’m not worried so much about this inflation as I’m worried about the coming super-inflation. I’m not over the hill, but I can clearly see the top of it, and I’m fairly certain there’s not another hill beyond.

    • Anthony A. says:

      @ Adam: “I’m wondering who is still in cash..”

      I have 70% of our nest egg in cash. The rest in preferred stocks and a few RIETs. I’m over 75 and not taking chances. Next big market crash I may jump into a few ETF’s. House is paid for and no bills (loans, CC’s) other than the usual utilities, etc.

      • Cashboy says:

        I moved all my cash to Thailand as I was living 50:50 in UK and Asia and was concerned of capital controls that I predict might occur in the EU zone.
        I only have my UK house with small mortgage ( 5% of the market value) and a WW2 ammunition bunker on 1 acre in the UK left having cashed everything in.
        I am holding 70% of my liquidity in cash in Swiss francs in a Thai Bank in Thailand and 30% in physical gold in Thai baht gold in Thailand.
        I own outright a 3,500 sqft house/office in Thailand.
        I have been buying farm land from Thai people needing to sell to clear the loans with arrears they have before repossession (currently 16 acres to date) and have a couple of ponds with fish and vegetables, rice and fruit trees and 6 cows.
        I pay my Thai secretary US$600 a month and can live on US$1,000 a month including running a Toyota Pickup and a couple of motorbikes.
        Currently stuck in the UK unable to get back to Thailand.

  2. Seneca's cliff says:

    Well according to the Employment to population ratio there is just a bit less than one person in the cart to each person pulling the cart. I wonder if we cross some kind of Rubicon if we go less than 50%.

    • Thomas Roberts says:

      Over time it takes less people to run everything as automation gets better. The problem with a below 50% labor participation rate comes down to if most people aren’t working and instead depend on others in their household or the government, that could lead to a very screwed government (through who gets voted in) and crash the economy.

      As the economy gets more automated, the number of hours everyone has to work a week/year will have to keep dropping to spread the good jobs around. As an average person has to work less and less, this will also reduce the number who try hard not to work. If everyone had to work (pre-retirement) and they were actually paid decent and knew their job mattered, it would solve alot of problems.

      50% probably, isn’t a specific line to cross though, right now, because of how screwed up the economy already is (monopolies) and a certain woman movement. The economy will likely just become more disfunctional as the labor force participation rate drops. There’s a lot to add about that woman movement, but it’s not something that can be talked about online.

      • c1ue says:

        Nonsense.
        Every bout of industrialization/automation had been accompanied by rising living standards = higher expectations.
        This bout is all about screwing the work force and rolling back 40+ years of labor participation.

      • Happy1 says:

        Automation will not result in mass unemployment, you lack basic understanding in economics and history, see the Industrial Revolution.

        • Thomas Roberts says:

          Automation in the past avoided causing unemployment, because of a huge rise in the standard of living, a reduction in the number of hours worked in a year by an average worker, greatly expanded retirement, elimination of child labor and many other factors.

          It isn’t likely to be possible to raise the standard of living by a substantial degree compared to the past because of resource limitations and many other factors. Everyone now has a heated home/apartment, with clean water, lights available 24/7, trash pickup at your house, and many other things. What big things that compare to those are they going to add in the future?

          In the near future, automation will eventually start eliminating jobs that won’t get replaced. There are different approachs to handling it, the approach I recommend is simply dividing up the jobs among more people as automation really kicks in. It can be done over time to match the pace of automation.

          Also Happy1, I’ve never seen you say anything substantial or smart, so it’s very strange that you are somehow questioning my knowledge.

        • Johnny Diamond says:

          Lol You’ve been asleep for the last hundred years if you think This comment is correct. AI and our robot overlords are coming and they will replace most of the human labor force. If you don’t see everybody bearing their face and technology then you’re blind and this is just the beginning. Obey your technolust It is inevitable.

      • Mira says:

        When was the economy ever that good that it is screwed up now ??
        The good ol’ days never were, it was just a nice movie on TV .. wasn’t it ??

        • Mira says:

          Down here we talk .. “this was” & “that was” & “those were the days .. & it’s all a lot of pie in the sky gibberish.

        • Mira says:

          I see it like this .. is this the best we can do ?

          “77 % of the worlds population suffers from high rates of insufficient food, illiteracy, disease, political instability ..
          * & population growth” .. this bit is no longer true .. below replacement fertility has hit us all .. across the board.
          Is this the best we can do ??
          77% of our planet is a garbage can .. the rest is tolerable & then we have the gods.

    • ElbowWilham says:

      15% work for the government. Would you consider them pulling the cart?

      • Anthony A. says:

        You made me spit out the coffee I had in my mouth onto my keyboard with that comment. LOL

      • Felix_47 says:

        Add 80% of those working in health, finance, real estate, law, and teaching. There are precious few pulling the cart. We are living off prior investments in China and other countries and the position of the dollar. It will end sooner rather than later. Of course the majority of foreign governments are worse than ours believe it or not.

        • Mira says:

          who gets to decide what is a bona fide job or not ??
          when I was a kid .. the local council employed men to weed & keep clean the laneways behind our houses.

          Also .. I am not interested in government jobs [you can’t trust public servant for love nor money] .. privatisation is where I’m coming from .. with a stringent criteria for operation & hefty whack with a big stick as incentive.
          The Australian government is about to privatise ACAT .. [after years of misappropriated funds] they have woken up at last .. hooray .. aged care .. rehab .. healthcare .. the whole lot is up for grabs & not a moment too soon.

  3. Phoneix_Ikki says:

    Too bad the market is close today and I guess we all just have to wait on Monday. Predict market is going to explode on this data based on the hopium principle below.

    Permanent workers job losses, not getting any better — Ignored

    18M temp worker back to work — Light those powder key, market is going to reach 100 yr high in no time

    • Wal st doesn’t like a tight labor market, or the sniff of inflation.

    • MumboJumbo says:

      They already bumped the market yesterday/this week knowing the numbers that were coning.
      The ‘public’ always knows last.
      In the know – has become so obvious: another sign the end is nigh ;)

  4. John Galt says:

    Don’t worry, don’t panic, everything is fine. The housing market is strong, jobs are coming back, we are in a major recovery phase now. . .

    (Facepalm)

    • MiTurn says:

      ” we are in a major recovery phase ”

      Funny! I love satire…

      • Volvo P-1800 says:

        “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau …”

        • Phoneix_Ikki says:

          Lately, a big part of me is always thinking, what if all of us are sooo wrong and this time is different? Not because the fundamental or the event is different but rather the financial overton windows has shifted so far to the side of insanity, especially combine with FED’s help, this is in every way as cliche as it sounds…the new normal

          I sure as heck hope that’s not the case but trying to keep an open mind

        • TimTim says:

          Volvo,

          I’m sure the lemmings said something similar…

        • Nathan Dumbrowski says:

          The thing is that for the game to continue you need to continue at the pace and rate of increase. Plateau would mean a leveling of the field. If we are not growing at 20% annually then it is broken

  5. MiTurn says:

    I must live in “destination land” as everyone and their brother is moving here. Every store and restaurant is open and many have permanent (!) help wanted signs. Such signs are everywhere! McDonalds and Burger King are posting a starting wage of $13.50 per hour to start. Walmart is $15+.

    Crazy sauce.

    • John Galt says:

      I think things like this are a perfect example of the asset bubble. I have some lower income friends who ended up with almost $10,000 in “stimulus” money. It’s more money than they have EVER had. Are they working? Yeah, but many are just sitting at home speculating. It’s awfully strange, and no one seems to notice the insanity of it all.

      • Petunia says:

        I think it’s great they got 10K. Better them than another crony.

        • cas127 says:

          Not so great if, in aggregate, it simply pumps up (unsustainably) prices in various key goods (homes, autos, etc…all likely destined to be foreclosed unless Pandemic 2 rolls in).

          DC is trying to convince everybody that inflation is a cure when it is actually a disease.

          DC does this because, for *DC* inflation is a *tool*.

        • Petunia says:

          Cas,

          Most likely the 10K went to moving, furniture, new shoes, dental work, etc. The things low wage workers often need and can’t afford.

        • Anthony A. says:

          My stimulus went for dental work Medicare doesn’t cover. (didn’t cover it all though)

          My daughter and her husbands went for bills and replacing a busted water pipe in the house + sheet rock fix (Texas freeze). The fix was less than her ins deductible. They both are working, but were out for 6 months, so they are behind.

          Stepdaughter’s stimulus went for bills as she is STILL UNEMPLOYED after 13 months. She is on forbearance with her house payment and still collecting UI. It looks like she will never get her oil & gas accounting job back again (she’s 50+ years old). She is divorced and in a bind, so we will help as necessary.

          The other family members (from wife’s first marriage), I have no clue what they did with the stimulus although some were laid off but now back to work.

          No one around here is buying video game consoles or taking vacations with that free money.

      • Swamp Creature says:

        I’m still waiting for my stimulus payment. Need to have my dental implant completed. OOOps, my Dentist just got Covid-19 and is out of commission. Waiting 6 weeks to get my tax return processed so I can get my Dec $1,200 tax credit. I’m 0 for 3. In baseball terms that called striking out.

    • cas127 says:

      It would help if you said where you actually live…otherwise how can anybody check out details?

      • John Galt says:

        South Bay area CA. Overpriced, overhyped, overstimulated, balloon central :)

    • Jonas Grimm says:

      And that’s still starvation wages.

      • Frederick says:

        It sure is that Jonas and the flood of people coming across the border will just make things worse for the bottom 50%
        Is that racist? I didn’t think so

  6. Kim says:

    President BidenHarris is allowing in huge numbers of competitors for present and future jobs, and their children, to compete with your children, to tamp down any possible uppity demands for livable wages or benefits. Corporations rejoice, not just for the new neoserfs employees, but expanded markets for more Chinese stuff, maybe even credit cards and loans for them if the taxpayers can somehow be put on the hook to pay them back.

    “US set to face more migrants on Mexico border than in ‘last 20 years’ – Homeland Security boss”

    “The number of migrants apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border reached the highest monthly total in 15 years, with more than 170,000 crossings recorded in March” Yup, elections do matter.

    • Cem says:

      The companies hiring these individuals however should be applauded for improving their bottom line!

      God forbid they’re held accountable.

    • Dom says:

      Of course going after employers who hire migrants would stop the migration fast.

      But hey, since corporations fund our elections, we have government money can buy!

  7. MiTurn says:

    “companies are cutting costs and are using the cover of the recession to farm work out to cheap countries”

    Maybe the US is swapping places with India, viz. standard of living?

    • Dom says:

      Better overpaid billionaires than overpaid workers!

      What could possibly go wrong?

  8. Avraam Jack Dectis says:

    Good analysis.
    We want EPOP as high as possible because it means jobs for those having a hard time getting one.
    It also means greater GDP growth.
    Maybe at the price of some inflation, but even so, an excellent bargain.
    Hopefully policy makers agree.

    • BuySome says:

      Don’t be so sure that the figure foretells good news. If things are bad in job prospects, a household surviving on one income may now be turning to two incomes totaling a much lower amount just to make ends meet or even retard the rate at which they fall backwards. That peak number around 1999 did not reveal the truth of an economy heading toward a death spiral. Do you really believe we have prospered since?

      • Avraam Jack Dectis says:

        .
        Valid point.
        Average worker has not shared in productivity gains.
        Pushing EPOP much higher would force employers to compete for workers by sharing those productivity gains.
        .

    • Lisa_Hooker says:

      If we can just get enough inflation everyone will become rich.

    • c1ue says:

      I don’t think you’re reading the analysis above.
      Epop is lower. Period.
      It is higher in some subsections compared to part recessions but overall labor force participation is down. Period end stop.
      Let’s look at this another way: If another nation caused this type of economic recession, we would declare war.

  9. Ron says:

    Multiple companies in my area are hiring workers 4 hour shifts per day don’t have to pay benefits @ 11-15$ a hour people will revolt soon not even close to living wage I believe union,s are coming back business has pushed to far and government intervention has only created more problems high taxes and eliminating middle class for enrichment of the elites how many billions can one person spend

  10. DawnsEarlyLight says:

    Maybe some of those 2 million ‘temp’ losers are in reality permanent losers. Maybe even half, or a million of them.

    • cas127 says:

      I tend to think these temp vs. perm distinctions just (intentionally) muddy the waters.

      No unemployment “rates”, no “labor force” subset, no temp vs. perm…G, just give us a friggin’ count of the full time employed.

      Every DC elaboration is viewed as an opportunity for definitional game playing, useful for when feeding propaganda to the complicit MSM.

  11. MonkeyBusiness says:

    Looks like S&P 4500!!!

  12. Micheal Engel says:

    1) The Labor force is up 50%, but in the last 9 months it’s stalling.
    2) Additional trillions of $ might send it to the top, but the large influx of illegal immigrant might put pressure on the official Labor Force.
    3) Employment : Population, a bearish viking horn.
    4) 2011 low might send it back down. The last few dots are glued together.
    5) Households vs Establishment are up between 60% to 70%, but the
    last 6 months are shortening it’s thrust.
    6) Same for the permanent job losers, despite trillions in sunk money and more.
    7) Less is more. More might send the markets and the labor force down.
    8) Yesterday, on Apr 1st, NDX gap up > dma50.
    9) Yesterday bar is the smallest bar in the last 20TD.
    10) It’s size is almost 1/3 of the previous bar, on the same volume. It didn’t move all day.
    11) Market makers facing 3 days weekend, prevented price from falling. Why.
    12) Mon and Tues, NDX might rise on 2 more air bubbles to close the Feb 19/22 open gap.

  13. Depth Charge says:

    Hi Wolf. I thought I made a comment on the other thread about UE, but it was removed?

    Anyway, the thing I don’t understand is how we can have over 700,000 FIRST TIME jobless claims per week, for over a year straight, yet celebrate 900,000+ new jobs in a month. Doesn’t that leave a loss of almost 2 million jobs in a month?

    • VintageVNvet says:

      Good one DC,,, glad to see another soul bogged down in the verities, realities, real world,,, what so ever ya want to call it.
      Noted thus and voted so with my sorry ass remaining small investments in the SM, getting out in the early 1980s, and, so far, staying out as the level of crony crooked so called ”accounting” practices, including especially glaad, in spite of that policy and practices being more likely global lexicon to assure all destruction continues…
      At this point IMHO, anyone believing any, or almost any, of the news of the day from any source of the GUV mint deserves what they get.

      • Swamp Creature says:

        Yep, went to another empty house in DC today. Tomorrow another empty one. Yet only 14% are second home refinancing. I think its more like 75%.

        A cop was killed while we were in the property, just few blocks from us. On Good Friday. What is happening in this country?!

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Depth Charge,

      No UE comment that you wrote was removed. However, if you replied to someone in a thread where the top comment was removed, all comments nested below that top comment would disappear automatically. I don’t know if this is what happened, this is just generally how the system is set up.

      Also, you might be looking under the wrong article. This happens a lot :-]

      • Depth Charge says:

        It must have been in a reply and the whole string was removed. Or yeah, I was mindlessly posting it somewhere else and forgot. Hahahaha!

    • stonedwino says:

      I do not believe the unemployment numbers for a second. There are way more people out of work, me being one of those. I just got canned…The situation on the ground is way, way worse than the numbers (which I do not believe) are telling us…

    • Cookdoggie says:

      “I don’t understand is how we can have over 700,000 FIRST TIME jobless claims per week, for over a year straight, yet celebrate 900,000+ new jobs in a month. Doesn’t that leave a loss of almost 2 million jobs in a month?”

      I don’t get it either unless it’s rampant UE fraud. Our company recently received notice from the state that a UE claim was filed by our President. Boy, was she surprised.

  14. Petunia says:

    The best/worst story of this entire debacle is the California unemployment system and its utter failure. The home of Silicon Valley still can’t send out unemployment checks to the right people. Still can’t reprogram computers with any efficiency. This story is still under covered by the media one year later. Where was big tech when CA needed them, mostly moving out.

    • Anthony A. says:

      Big tech probably sent that State UI programming work to India as it was low margin.

    • timbers says:

      Silicon Valley needs to find a gig – like censorship. The folks in power all in love with that now. Maybe SV will do as good a job with that as they did with unemployment benefits.

      • Petunia says:

        With every round of censorship the data pool they can mine gets smaller and smaller.

    • wkevinw says:

      Petunia- CA is now a very odd place/economy.

      It is basically has a few/narrow industries where (upper income) people do well- e.g. tech, entertainment, some agribusiness. The list has been getting shorter. People in those industries, physicians, lawyers, and many public employees do pretty well in CA.

      That is a very small minority of the CA population, and it wasn’t like this until about 15-20 years ago.

      The tech people never really did much to make the governmental functions any better in the state- at least in my experience.

      CA is the neofeudal model with the rich trying to tax themselves and everybody above the poverty line enough to redistribute to the poor folks. (always an unsustainable economic model). CA has the largest fraction of poor people of any state now.

      It wasn’t like that when I was growing up there.

      • stonedwino says:

        Neo-Feudalism.

      • Fat Chewer. says:

        I don’t know where you got the idea that feudalism had anything even approaching wealth redistribution, but you’re wrong. Wealth redistribution was invented centuries after the end of feudalism.

        In fact, it was invented after the failure of Utilitarianism which was a Capitalist invention that almost ruined English society. Look it up, you will be surprised by the events surrounding this period(c. mid 18th-mid 19th Century). Or, you can just read a Charles Dickens’ novel Hard Times to see the widespread negative social effects of Utilitarianism during the Industrial Revolution. It was it’s own form of serfdom. There are many parallels to what is happening now.

    • MCH says:

      Petunia,

      We in CA are much more advanced than that, we build billion dollar cash machines designed to spy on your every moment, we build addictive hardware and software designed to control everything you do. We are building the future of energy (through software), the future of autonomous vehicles (through software), the future of robots (again, through software). All of these things are designed to help make your life easier, no more wasting of time on mindless, back breaking labor. (i.e. the serfs don’t need to be paid any more, and we rake in more cash)

      Seriously, when you look at all that, and how busy we are doing all of this stuff that benefits society as a whole, why would we waste time on something so mundane like figure out how to send out unemployment checks, just outsource that low tech labor intensive crap to Asia somewhere, and call it a day, it’s cheaper by far, don’t have to pay CA wages, and we can spend serious brain power on things that matter, like how to make you watch cat videos fifty times a day and show you ads that make you want to spend your hard earned cash.

      See, it’s all about maximizing potentials and letting people do what they are good at.

      Darn it, can’t do a funny emoji on the PC. Will go for the good ol fashion one then.

      :P

      • Petunia says:

        Thanks for the confirmation, I suspected as much.

        However, all this surveillance for our own good, is going to bite them back, when you consider all the outsourcing to foreign “partners.” The amount of identity fraud alone is enough to corrupt the entire big data agenda. It’s going to be a hard sell to convince anybody their data is good when everybody knows how insecure the systems already are.

  15. Crush the Peasants! says:

    The permanently unemployed barristas, bartenders, bellhops and waiters can be retrained to build automobiles. Errrr… no. They can be retrained to build apliances. Errr…..no. They can move up to New England and get a job at the one of the textile mills. Errr….no. Certainly Bethlehem Steel could employ many. Err…No.

    Well, if these laybaouts won’t show some initiative and travel to China or Mexico to work, the heck with them.

    • lenert says:

      Leisure and Hospitality lead the way with 128,000 jobs. It’s spring break and hotels are filling up, according to the booking sites.

  16. MonkeyBusiness says:

    I am sure Wolf will have a post on this later, but anyways Wolf was the guest star on the Peak Prosperity Youtube channel this morning. As usual, he provided a lot of good perspectives on various topics. A must watch!!

    • Phoneix_Ikki says:

      I do like some of those videos on Peak Prosperity. Haven’t been watching their update recently but I remember the two guys from New Harbor financial they have on there talking about how crazy this bubble has gotten and how it’s going to pop almost every week. Sadly since then, the whole market has gone even more nuts that ever, wonder how defeated they feel seeing their prediction going do far the opposite directly. I sure I know I feel that way.

      • Depth Charge says:

        Imagine being those guys, telling your clients to stay out of the market the whole time and missing the run-up? I’d bet they have some angry customers.

  17. MCH says:

    You miss the obvious here, Wolf.

    The jobs market is roaring back because the heir to the audacity of hope is back in charge. Taking a little longer than normal, but we are getting there. Keep up your optimism.

    It will be up a million next month.

    As long as said heir keeps his mouth firmly closed… we will see S&P5k before the year is out.

    😱

  18. Micheal Engel says:

    1) McDonald’s focused $3 bundle of : apple fritter, Cinnamon roll, or blueberry muffin with any size of coffee + sugar and cream, is doing so well, it will send share prices to a new all time high.
    2) Starbucks larger spectrum of pastry, Frappuccino and whip cream for dogs with tips, cost $9. Dogs leak their puppuccino within 10sec. Dogs love Starbucks so much they sent SBUX prices up, in an ending triangle.
    3) MCD + SBUX are full of tasty cheap energy : pastry, coffee, sugar and cream.
    4) In the last few months coffee prices dropped.
    5) In the last 60 years sugar price dropped from 60, from the sixties, to less than 6 cents today.
    6) Low commodities enable higher labor cost.
    7) In mid 2000, in NYC SBUX blasted better smaller innovators stores.
    8 ) Starbucks put their knee on every corner, choking the competition.
    9) SBUX monthly : May 2006 high to July 2019 high. // a parallel line from Aug 2006 low for support.
    10) SUBX might reach a parallel line coming from big red-sad, Jan 2005 open.
    11) One Pakistani chain store from London survived.
    12) They focused on the media elite : the NYT, FOX headquarters…and the banks, with European pastry and coffee.

    • Anthony A. says:

      My friend who owns 6 Burger Kings here in Houston said the store volumes are way up this first quarter. Of course, we (Texas) have been “open” since the first of the year. His take out business is off the charts and he has had to hire more counter help to manage that as a lot of the pick ups are from walk in’s that come inside the store (Door Dash, in particular). These are one lane drive through operations.

      • Anthony says:

        Anthony A

        Yep,
        but as even texans only have one mouth, it means that somebody else is losing out… I guess we have to wait for most things to open up ( not just Texas) to find out who the losers really are……

  19. Yort says:

    Who needs a job on planet Earth when SP500 will be Fed forced to 4300/4500 EOY, then to the nice rounded number of 5,000 by EOY 2022. All the Fed needs to do is double the QE/month “sometime” this year, start YCC (yield curve control), and continue to spread the fantasy that 3-12% annual inflation on every single object on planet Earth is just, transitry, temporary, transient, brief, short-lived, short-term, impermanent, ephemeral, evanescent, momentary, fleeting, passing…per the Fed-Speak thesaurus, buy one now before the price doubles!!!

    As a bonus offer, don’t forget your free Fed SP500 lotto ticke—>3820-4011-4212-4422-4643-4875-5119. For today only, the BTFD Fed offer will guarantee it a sure fire winner….yet note that “Peak Liquidty” timing and batteries not included! And timing of offer may vary depending on which infinite realities you currently exist…

    • Phoenix_Ikki says:

      Sorry but I am already steps beyond jobs on planet Earth…that’s so 2020…I am looking at Mars now and scoping out how the job market is like there out there. Daddy Musk has promised us we will have full employment there soon enough…to Mars we go!

    • jm says:

      I’ve gotten the impression that the Fed’s helicopter money policies were adopted because fiscal policy was not stepping up to the plate sufficiently to prevent an even more serious recession. There have been some indications they’re not happy about having financed asset bubbles, but fear not doing so would have an even worse effect on employment.

      If Biden gets his infrastructure plans passed, the Fed might surprise everyone by taking a breather and letting fiscal policy do the job.

  20. timbers says:

    Permanent job loses? How is that even possible when we’re so many years into the huge job creating tax cuts for rich gigantic corporate monopolies? Which of course don’t cause deficits because they increase revenue and besides only govt spending causes deficits.

  21. SpencerG says:

    As one of the permanent job losers in my 50s I hope this is less permanent than the prior iteration.

    • Depth Charge says:

      I am sorry to hear it. What industry are you in? Best of luck

    • stonedwino says:

      I’m 54 and just got fired for the fist time in my life…things are nowhere near as rosy as the picture seems..,plus we’ve got Covid wave #4 in the works and now, the vaccinations aren’t coming fast enough to stop it. This summer gonna be lit!

      • Anthony says:

        stonedwino
        Which part of the US is now in wave 4??? Be interesting to know. I’m in the UK and everyone over 50 has almost been vaccinated, so it’s almost gone here..(until they scare us all again)

        • Swamp Creature says:

          In my county Montgomery County, MD only 17% of the people have been vaccinated, The government is saying they are doing a great job. They are pathalogical liars. They are all Democrats. Blue state all the way. If they were Republicans this would be front page news.

        • Crush the Peasants! says:

          The head of the Montgomery County, Maryland public health department is a clinical psychologist. Go figure.

        • stonedwino says:

          I believe there are over two dozen states with rising new cases & deaths, related to mutations, with NY & NJ leading the way again, while we are reopening everything. Lots of people getting vaccinated, but I’m not sure we are at maybe 20% of the Us population fully vaccinated. The virus with its mutations moves quickly and is still in charge.

  22. Stupid says:

    I don’t believe in the tooth fairy or the BLS.

  23. Swamp Creature says:

    Was in Wells Fargo the other day, one of their main branches. They had only one teller working. Some dude was tying her up while he was on the phone yacking it up with his girlfriend. I waited while the line did not move for 5 minutes. Because of Covid-19 I never stay inside an enclosed place for more than a few minutes. I walked out without completing any transactions. Wells just fired 100 bankers for defrauding the PPP program. This is the 4th largest bank in the US and can only afford one teller who is probably paid minimum wages. Give me a break!

    • Depth Charge says:

      Wells Fargo is a criminal enterprise.

      • RightNYer says:

        Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank and he can rob the world.

      • Swamp Creature says:

        Isn’t their HQ in Wolf’s back yard in San Fran? We may need Wolf to go check the place out and see if they still have a storefront.

      • Frederick says:

        They all are but Wells takes first prize

      • Lawefa says:

        Criminal enterprise is putting it kindly.

    • Texas23 says:

      And you continue your business relationship with Wells Fargo, WHY?

      Capital One bank took it one step further, zero tellers, and closed the local branch.

      Took my $$$ to a “local bank”.

  24. Mira says:

    I have been The Boss
    “Welcome to the team, you be loyal to us & I have got your back.”
    “Betray us & I will throw you into oncoming traffic, he who laughs last laughs the longest.”

  25. Den says:

    As one of these perma job losers, I foresee a bleak future since corporations are just TOO SUCCE$$FUL at wage suppressing political activities.

    As long as asset inflation is viewed so fondly and wage inflation viewed poorly, we will fall deeper in the hole.

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