“Prelude to Recession”: the Dallas Fed’s Unsettling Charts

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The “sharp cross-sector split.”

“The views expressed are those of the speaker and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System,” it says on the front page of the presentation. Institutional CYA. We get that.

Also let’s clarify upfront that Evan Koenig, Senior Vice President and Principal Policy Advisor at the Dallas Fed, did not forecast a recession. No Fed official, and no economist employed by any Fed entity, would ever publicly do that. For them, publicly, recessions exist only in the rearview mirror. For them, publicly, economic growth goes on forever.

Yet they know what’s going on. They have enormous resources at their fingertips. But by forecasting a recession publicly, they would deflate hype and sap economic confidence and could thus cause a recession – or a market crash. So no way. No recession warning from them, ever.

However, their concerns leave footprints in the economic muck, and this is one of them.

It appeared when Koenig spoke at a Dallas Fed event – “Finding Shelter: Assessing Texas Residential Real Estate amid the Oil Slump” – along with over a dozen other speakers. Koenig gave an update on the US economy and the “conflicting forces” pulling it in different directions. Overall, the economy would grow at 2%, so even below the uninspiring growth rate that has been dogging the US for years.

His logic unfolds in his presentation under the section, “The Fallout.” The collapse of the price of oil and the “soaring dollar” had the “expected impact on demand and its composition,” with some winners and losers:

Households benefited from lower energy prices and lower costs of imports, and they could spend these savings on other things (healthcare and rent come to mind, the costs of which have been ballooning). So household spending has “accelerated.”

But capital expenditures by businesses have taken a hit, especially in energy, mining, and manufacturing. The strong dollar has led companies to import foreign-made goods rather than purchase US-made goods. This too is hitting US-based manufacturers.

The “net effect of these conflicting forces has been to boost final demand for domestic product.” But the manufacturing sector is declining at the steepest pace since the Great Recession (“stagnating” is the politically correct term Koenig uses), while the service sector continues to grow.

He offered this chart of the national ISM Manufacturing Business Survey index (red line) and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey index (blue line). Below 50 means contraction:

US-ISM-manufacturing-service-2007_2016-01

So, at 48.2, manufacturing has been in contraction for four months in a row, according to this index. The service sector, which dominates the US economy, is still growing with the latest reading at 53.5. But that growth has been slowing sharply over the past few months, hence the downward slope of the blue line.



Koenig warns: “This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a sharp cross-sector split: the prognosis is mixed.” He offers the chart below, of the same ISM indices, but going back to the 1990s, which includes the 2001 recession. I circled his phrase, “Prelude to recession”:

US-ISM-manufacturing-service-1997_2016-01

The chart shows how manufacturing led the service sector into the 2001 recession by about a year. Manufacturing was already shrinking when service-sector growth began to waver, then slowed sharply, and finally dropped below 50. That’s when the official recession began.

That “Prelude to recession” came at the point when manufacturing was dropping below 50 while service-sector growth began to slow, though it was still safely above 50.

Next time around, manufacturing too led the downturn, but spread over several years, rather than just one year, with some zigzags in between. Then in December 2007, the manufacturing and service sectors both tanked. That was the official beginning of the Great Recession. They then briefly recovered before falling off the cliff in the second half of 2008.

None of these progressions are going to look alike. This time around, as before the 2001 recession, manufacturing is ahead into the downturn by about a year. Four months ago, the service sector started following. And the current point in time is precisely what a “prelude to recession” looks like.

It would be convenient to extend the blue line down until it reaches 50 and extrapolate that this would be the beginning of the recession. But if this process of declining growth in the service sector continues, it’s unlikely that it will be just a straight extension of the blue line. More likely, it will zig and zag interspersed with small recoveries.

But don’t worry. Koenig points out, the “slowdown in the goods-producing sector has, so far, failed to put a damper on job growth,” given that the unemployment rate, as reported by the BLS, is 4.9%, the lowest since February 2008. And increases in unemployment “have been limited to the oil-producing states (NM, ND, OK, TX, & WY).”

Alas, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Last time, the unemployment rate didn’t start rising significantly until May 2008 (jumping from 5.0% to 5.4%) when the US economy was already six months into what would later be called the Great Recession.

And the Oil Bust bites viciously. Read…  Five-Year Retail Boom in Texas Implodes



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  47 comments for ““Prelude to Recession”: the Dallas Fed’s Unsettling Charts

  1. John Doyle
    February 22, 2016 at 1:05 am

    Are there ANY graphs that point away from deflation-recession-depression?
    It certainly doesn’t seem so. Warren Mosler said the downturn we see began months ago. For me there is no way back this time. We lack the resources to pull back and those we have are too costly. Adding debt will only make it worse.

    • February 22, 2016 at 1:35 am

      There have been 3 quarters of consumer price “deflation” in my entire life (during the Financial Crisis). They made up for the prior three quarters of inflation. And that was it. Yet, there have been many recessions in my life, including the Great Recession. So the possibility of real deflation showing up and staying for a while are, in my experience, practically nil.

      • John Doyle
        February 22, 2016 at 1:47 am

        Maybe you are taking deflation as below zero numbers? It is considered deflationary if growth is less than 2%. Of course in that sense even China is in deflation with growth at 6-7% instead of 10%. Does the zero number matter right now?

        • Jonathan
          February 22, 2016 at 7:20 am

          Waiting for ivory tower economists to point out how a $10 Android phone and a $20 microwave is clearly indicative of how the consumer is facing “deflationary pressure” while conveniently ignoring the soaring cost of living especially real estate for the average man across the globe.

        • nick kelly
          February 22, 2016 at 8:16 am

          It is difficult to imagine how China could have ANY growth with both exports and imports declining at double digits.
          The 6-7 number is CCP talk that no analyst pays much attention to.

          It belongs with the line ‘we planned this trade crash to switch to a consumer economy’

        • February 22, 2016 at 9:39 am

          “It is considered…” By whom? Even the Fed and the ECB define “deflation” as below zero inflation. And they’re the ones that have been trying to engineer more inflation.

          Inflation is a wealth transfer from creditors and savors to debtors; and if wage inflation doesn’t occur at the same or greater rate, inflation is also a wealth transfer from workers to capital. This is what has been happening for decades – hence declining “real wages” for the 80%, and hence many of our economic problems.

        • John Doyle
          February 22, 2016 at 4:44 pm

          I can’t recall now where I saw the concept expressed that below 2% growth could be considered deflation. It makes sense though IMO. Recession is the next stage.

          It seemed to me your comment, deflation being a rarity, went against the tenor of the article. So what else do the “unsettling charts” seem to show aside from decline ?

        • February 22, 2016 at 4:53 pm

          The charts show a coming recession… so an economy that is declining instead of growing, that is destroying jobs instead of creating them.

          And remember, even very low economic growth, say 1%, is a problem for the individuals in that economy when the population is growing at a faster rate, say at 1.5%. Then per-capita GDP growth is suddenly negative. Per-capita GDP growth is what individuals are actually experiencing.

        • John Doyle
          February 22, 2016 at 9:13 pm

          So it’s down to definition I guess? I imagined deflation is a shrinkage of relative spending and so banks are lending less, [storing $2.4 Trillion in excess reserves at the Fed for example].The economy can still be growing, aenemicaly perhaps, in the face of declining consumption, due to lack of good jobs and an ageing population, plus your negative GDP/capita effect.
          I agree with your recession stance.
          My opinion is that we will have no way back to prosperity and that this situation will only worsen over time.

      • February 22, 2016 at 12:31 pm

        Our bet is still on. I expect to collect, Mr Inflation Man.

        :)

        BTW: Silicon Valley is starting to look and sound like the Bakken:

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-22/mood-silicon-valley-moment-after-titanic-hit-iceberg-heres-why

        “For the best soundbite of Silicon Valley’s suddenly prevalent “doom and gloom” sentiment we go to Rory O’Driscoll, a partner with venture firm Scale Venture Partners, who likens the mood today to the moment after the Titanic hit an iceberg. “No one wanted to jump into the lifeboats right away,” he said. Some hesitated. The smart companies are cutting expenses and raising capital if they can. “You’ve got to make a quick decision now.”

        It’s not just talk: “investors funded fewer U.S. startups in the fourth quarter than any period in more than four years. Since November, at least a dozen tech companies, which combined raised well over $2 billion in venture funding, have announced layoffs, letting go hundreds of people that in most cases represented at least 15% of their staffs. Other companies are closing money-losing projects and raising debt to tide them over.”

        Can an Alberta-esque crash in real estate prices be far off?

        • Petunia
          February 22, 2016 at 2:46 pm

          The advertising model is dying and the telecoms are wising up to carrying the ads for free. Some of these companies are going to have to start making money.

  2. February 22, 2016 at 3:34 am

    “We lack the resources to pull back…” – What are you talking about? We’ve lacked the resources for the last 20 years. This global economy was for the sixty-two. Not the three billion. Doing away with a job in the US so three guys in Bangladesh have jobs does nothing good for the US with the exception of those who do not need and are not going to spend the money. Charts…These charts are like a horserace program. It doesn’t matter that the odds on number #6 or a 100 to 1 if someone slips a needle into him or her. And unlike the racehorse owners who have to hope no one catches them, Wall Street bought Congress and the SEC years ago and can openly do as they please. I agree with you, someone should do something about this. I would, but I play golf on Monday.

    • John Doyle
      February 22, 2016 at 4:43 am

      According to Gail Tverberg [Our Finite World] we peaked in the late 1960’s. My take is we peaked with the moon shot, Apollo 11. It’s been sliding downhill ever since, because we are not in any state of sustainability. !971 was an interesting year, we crossed into unsustainability. We abolished solid backed money and began the great credit binge.
      Credit takes tomorrow’s resources and uses them today.
      That’s what I am talking about.

      • ucde
        February 22, 2016 at 11:02 am

        Credit actually precedes the existence of money in human societies (see Graeber’s “Debt”). In our system almost all money is created as credit (or debt).

        Sound money is an illusion, as is scarcity, in my opinion. Can’t type more now though, so have to be provocative and brief.

        • chris hauser
          February 22, 2016 at 12:18 pm

          um, scarcity is real when you ain’t got none.

        • John Doyle
          February 22, 2016 at 4:51 pm

          I know debt always comes first. We create money to pay down debts, both in commercial banks and the Fed. Currency can only be a token if not then we have a barter system. Which is probably where we end up once the grid fails.
          The illusion isn’t scarcity, it is plenty.

      • Bob Miller
        February 22, 2016 at 7:18 pm

        “Credit”…this not credit. It’s all make believe. The only way this stuff get’s taken care of, if it is ever taken care of, is WAR. These trillion dollar bills will be paid with blood. The gloves are off. These central banks, IMF and so on and so on are taking control. They understand that as long as pack mules have a full gut and a roof over their head that they’ll do as they are told. There’s nothing new about that. That was one of the first things I was told when I went to work for my Uncle Sam in 1958. Ike tried to warn the mules but they didn’t listen. They never have and they never will. The more Wolf, bless his heart, talks the better things get for the top 2%. And as long as they are happy, the longer we go without WWIII.

        • John Doyle
          February 22, 2016 at 10:35 pm

          Completely disagree. War will not solve the credit issue. It will make it far worse. It will be unimaginably counterproductive. It will drive civilization to ruin in the shortest time imaginable. It will waste resources beyond any ability to recover. So I seriously hope your thoughts don’t get acted on!

          It certainly doesn’t look like the 0.1% understand that. They seem hell bent on pushing BAU to its limits. Let’s hope they pull back and only go as far as brinkmanship. In this sense you are lucky Obama is cautious, in marked contrast to GWB.

      • Nick Kelly
        February 28, 2016 at 12:51 am

        It’s not a coincidence that if we take the 60’s as the US peak that is just when the two WWII losers, Japan and Germany were really starting to hit their stride.
        It would be ten years before the 15 th million Beetle would roll of the line overtaking the Model T’s record but the export in volume to the US was well underway.
        Japan would take longer- it hadn’t been an exporter before the war or an industrial super power.
        At the end of the war the US was the only commercial exporter that wasn’t broke, flattened or both.
        That was then.
        This is the missing X factor in US desire to return to the 50’s and 60’s- i.e. to return to a game where the US is the only major player. To return to a job on a car assembly line at good wages because the former exporters, Britain and Europe are in disarray.
        The US was also the only one of the exporters (the USSR never was) able to indulge in imperial over reach. This continues today with two trillion or so having just been blown in military adventuring.
        This situation has become so bad that it might be time to give the military itself a seat at the table.
        It’s all very well for Colin Powell to try and talk an unqualified imbecile like Bush out of invading Iraq, but maybe he should have had more say in the matter.

        Everyone professes revulsion to the idea of military influence on civilians but it was the German Army that offered the only serious resistance to Hitler once he became leader.

        PS; Hitler of course was self- appointed as Head of the Armed Forces but this was similar to the US President being Commander- in- Chief.

    • Petunia
      February 22, 2016 at 9:50 am

      And they are lining up to vote for Mrs. NAFTA. We have the govt and economy we deserve.

      • Bob Miller
        February 22, 2016 at 10:23 am

        You just summed up the only problem this country has in 18 words. The math has been done. The TRUTH is out. It only takes 62 muleskinners to handle 3 billion mules.

        • polecat
          February 22, 2016 at 12:08 pm

          It is impossible for the banking Humpty Dumpties to believe in cracked egg shells, when their vig & corruption depends upon them not becoming spoilt omelettes at the foot of the wall !!!

  3. Jonathan
    February 22, 2016 at 6:17 am

    If the CB cabal is insane enough to unleash NIRP, surely it’s not so insane for them to collectively proclaim “there is no recession unless we say so” contrary to every real evidence with their self-declared godlike powers?

  4. nick kelly
    February 22, 2016 at 8:26 am

    It makes sense that manufacturing would lead services in a downturn- and I would guess that services lead an upturn.
    A manufacturer customers will be retailers who will need inventory and be wary of having too much.
    The customer of the service sector is more likely to be a consumer who can’t carry an inventory of haircuts, etc.
    This may already be obvious to other denizens so apologies to them.

  5. Petunia
    February 22, 2016 at 9:47 am

    If inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, then deflation is too much money not chasing too many goods. I see pockets of inflation, rent and groceries being the biggest for me. I also see pockets of deflation. It is not only the affluent running out of stuff to buy, but actual resistance from consumers. I cut back on the amount of groceries I buy because the quality is just not there. Same thing with clothing and other household goods.

    Globalization has not only cut the workforce, but it has severely cut the quality of goods and even services. The batteries don’t last, the tape doesn’t stick, the scissors don’t cut, etc, etc… After awhile you don’t bother even buying stuff you can use because it is not worth it. This is the part of globalization nobody is addressing. Corporate America has stripped the quality out of everything. Even the food is not real. I had a cake in my refrigerator for over a month and it didn’t even spoil. Scary.

    • Kreditanstalt
      February 22, 2016 at 12:16 pm

      “Globalization has not only cut the workforce, but it has severely cut the quality of goods and even services. The batteries don’t last, the tape doesn’t stick, the scissors don’t cut, etc, etc… After awhile you don’t bother even buying stuff you can use because it is not worth it.”

      Well said, Petunia. An astute observation…and TRY sourcing better quality stuff. Not easy.

    • chris hauser
      February 22, 2016 at 12:25 pm

      you and me both. jeez, it’s hard to find quality, but it’s out there. i bought two pairs of justin workboots, 125 a piece, and if i alternate them, they’ll last 5 years.

      on the other hand, to a lot of people, 250 at one shot is a lot of money.

    • Chicken
      February 22, 2016 at 11:41 pm

      Check the ingredients on the label, many cheeses for example contain increasing amounts of cellulose (wood pulp).

      I read somewhere FDA stopped testing for mad cow disease, is that right? Honestly I wouldn’t know b/c even the news media is purposely misleading.

      Somewhere above Inflation Man was called out, not even clear who that was. So much useless drivel and misleading comments provides hours of entertainment for this old mule.

    • Jonathan
      February 23, 2016 at 7:03 am

      The irony is that consumer electronics has become “good enough” and commoditized at a ever faster rate that they barely make a profit at best even if they sell a gazillion of them *cough* Android phone and PC makers *cough*. Unless it’s Apple.

  6. Ptb
    February 22, 2016 at 12:03 pm

    I don’t see what’s going to cause things to get better at this point. Interest rates are still near all time lows, oil is way down and the USD is still quite strong. Where’s the growth supposed to come from at this point?

    • polecat
      February 22, 2016 at 12:15 pm

      you only need those special ‘rose colored’ glasses & an ’emerald curtain’ to reveal that all is well, the world enveloped in sweetness and light, and everywhere rainbows as far as the eyes can see………

  7. Kreditanstalt
    February 22, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    “…capital expenditures by businesses have taken a hit, especially in energy, mining, and manufacturing. The strong dollar has led companies to import foreign-made goods rather than purchase US-made goods. This too is hitting US-based manufacturers.”

    They’re so, so far out to lunch and this kind of micro-managing obsession with “big companies”, macro-statistics and extrapolated trends shows it in spades. ZERO idea of the real, main street economy: with central planners like the Fed, everything is top-down…

    The REAL economy? Is dead in the water and shrinking…elites, statisticians and authorities disparage simple observation but a walk down any street, a kick at the tires and a peek behind the shutters will show the state of the street-level economy – pretty precarious.

    Real estate is hardly moving, without massive debt. The unemployment shoe is about to drop. Small businesses are hanging on by their fingernails. Debt is as high as it’s ever been. Vacant buildings and empty lots abound. Many things won’t sell yet sellers are reluctant to drop their prices – YET. Many people seem to be totally unproductive (in terms of actual goods production) yet someone, somewhere is still paying them astronomical wages. (Look at local government…) Both CHOICE and merchandise of quality seems to be slowly disappearing from store shelves…WHEN there are customers at all…

    But don’t expect Fed statisticians to give any of this credence. It’s all about “big companies”…

    • chris hauser
      February 22, 2016 at 12:30 pm

      i often find peggy lee to be very instructive, because despite all odds, the sun will come up tomorrow….. i’m optimistic, i have to be.

      “Is That All There Is?”
      (originally by Dan Daniels)

      I remember when I was a very little girl, our house caught on fire.
      I’ll never forget the look on my father’s face as he gathered me up
      In his arms and raced through the burning building out to the pavement.
      I stood there shivering in my pajamas and watched the whole world go up in flames.
      And when it was all over I said to myself,
      “Is that all there is to a fire?”

      Is that all there is?
      Is that all there is?
      If that’s all there is my friends
      Then let’s keep dancing
      Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
      If that’s all there is

      And when I was 12 years old, my daddy took me to a circus.
      “The Greatest Show On Earth.”
      There were clowns and elephants and dancing bears.
      And a beautiful lady in pink tights flew high above our heads.
      And as I sat there watching, I had the feeling that something was missing.
      I don’t know what, but when it was over,
      I said to myself,
      “Is that all there is to a circus?”

      Is that all there is?
      Is that all there is?
      If that’s all there is my friends
      Then let’s keep dancing
      Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
      If that’s all there is

      And then I fell in love, with the most wonderful boy in the world.
      We would take long walks by the river
      Or just sit for hours gazing into each other’s eyes.
      We were so very much in love.
      Then one day, he went away and I thought I’d die.
      But I didn’t.
      And when I didn’t I said to myself,
      “Is that all there is to love?”

      Is that all there is?
      Is that all there is?
      If that’s all there is my friends, then let’s keep-

      I know what you must be saying to yourselves.
      “If that’s the way she feels about it why doesn’t she just end it all?”
      Oh, no, not me.
      I’m in no hurry for that final disappointment.
      ‘Cause I know just as well as I’m standing here talking to you,
      That when that final moment comes and I’m breathing my last breath
      I’ll be saying to myself-

      Is that all there is?
      Is that all there is?
      If that’s all there is my friends
      Then let’s keep dancing
      Let’s break out the booze and have a ball
      If that’s all there is

      • Yoshua
        February 22, 2016 at 1:58 pm

        A friend of mine crashed his car and experienced that his soul left the body. While he was hovering in the air and looked down at crash scene he said to him self – “Is this all there is ? How pathetic !” And then he was sucked into his body again.

        A true story.

        • CrazyCooter
          February 23, 2016 at 12:43 am

          I did this as a teenager, except I felt the Earth roll against me (I was driving East) and I realized I was a small critter, at a place in time, on a mud ball in space, moving at high velocities, and quite lucky to have the notion at all.

          No crash required.

          My advice: enjoy time with your loved ones, remember the sun is always there even when the weather is shitty, eat well, sleep well, eat good food, live some place you can take a beautiful walk through God’s nature as he made it, and have a hobby (or job) you genuinely enjoy.

          In 1000 years, nothing will be left of modern civilization as we know it, even our dumps and major population centers. For the better if you ask me.

          Oh, and some people are so poor all they have is money. Don’t forget that.

          #BeatUpFord (I don’t Twitter, but it sounds clever – and the studio version has AMAZING fiddle, but all I could source was YouTube variants)

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzYjoaH3ZPg

          Regards,

          Cooter

  8. Tim
    February 22, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    It is more comprehensible if some qualifier is added: price inflation, wage inflation, monetary inflation, profit inflation, nominal, real, rent, etc. They are not all the same.

    Likewise for deflation.

    You can have deflation, without prices dropping. Real wage deflation with real price inflation.

  9. Mark
    February 22, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    The best I ever red on this blog:
    “Also let’s clarify upfront that Evan Koenig, Senior Vice President and Principal Policy Advisor at the Dallas Fed, did not forecast a recession. No Fed official, and no economist employed by any Fed entity, would ever publicly do that. For them, publicly, recessions exist only in the rear-view mirror. For them, publicly, economic growth goes on forever.

    Yet they know what’s going on. They have enormous resources at their fingertips. But by forecasting a recession publicly, they would deflate hype and sap economic confidence and could thus cause a recession – or a market crash. So no way. No recession warning from them, ever.

    Keep the good work Wolf.

    • Petunia
      February 22, 2016 at 2:30 pm

      It’s like Wall St., they recommend buy or hold, never sell.

      • CrazyCooter
        February 23, 2016 at 12:45 am

        Jessie Livermore’s autobiography (widely available in PDF for free if you dig) is instrumental in knowing how Wall Street works.

        Nothing is new except the computers.

        Regards,

        Cooter

        • Mark
          February 23, 2016 at 1:13 pm

          Thanks for sharing this info.
          I use some of his theories when it comes to trading, but mostly rely on my own.
          In any case, book for everybody who is/or planning to invest in stock market (casino).
          Cheers.

  10. ERG
    February 22, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    “Yet they know what’s going on.”

    Of course, they do, but they raised rates anyway!

    Why?

    Welcome to Washington DC where maintaining the narrative is WAY more important than reality.

    • February 22, 2016 at 2:09 pm

      They raised rates (so to speak … now they can’t actually raise rates like they used to) because they want to have some room to move in a downturn, and because low rates cause all kinds of problems and distortions. They see that too (“reach for yield” being one of them), and even Yellen started warning about them two years ago.

  11. Michael Gorback
    February 22, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    Don’t worry, those lines will cross back as we ramp up production of robots to replace the service workers.

    • Petunia
      February 22, 2016 at 2:42 pm

      I was in Home Depot recently and the cashier was a person scanning my purchase. You had to pay a machine. The scanner person screwed up the scanning and overcharged me and I had to go to a service desk to fix the mess. I hate dealing with machines but the “cashier” was a moron. The person that fixed my problem undercharged me. I had to explain to her how to reverse a transaction and recharge me. You can’t make this stuff up. BTW, I haven’t been to a Home Depot in a while and the majority of the staff is now female. Probably because they make less money.

  12. orion
    February 22, 2016 at 6:07 pm

    listen to the song “union sundown” by Dylan. look at year he wrote it. nothing new is going on. I think the central banks are trying everything they can to get this ball back on track. I would hate to be in their position. I know this is not a popular belief. but unfortunately there is no test lab or computer program that predict what to do. the real world is the laboratory, we see this in real time and only time will tell. wolf love you information have been reading it a long time keep up the good work and words. im a Canadian working in the manufacturing (automotive) industry in once of the highest unemployment cities.

    • Chicken
      February 22, 2016 at 11:52 pm

      FED saying things like “Economy is strong and robust, growing, etc.”, is them helping their insider buddies offload their junk onto unsuspecting victims.

      I don’t consider that helping or doing the right thing, I call it theft.

  13. Julian the Apostate
    February 23, 2016 at 12:41 pm

    While timing is never possible foreseeing trends are, simply because the world is cyclical by nature. I was first exposed to classical authors by Thoreau in Walden. When I read some of them I was amazed at how little the human condition had changed. Sure tech surged by leaps and bounds after the 18th century but people are people. Petunia’s song is but one example that we’re all penciled in. Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die. Wolf Street and our little community here is one of the good things in life. LLAP 😉

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