The Reasons the Fed’s Bowman is “Willing” to Hike Rates if “Data Indicate Progress on Inflation Has Stalled or Reversed” by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2024 • 103 Comments She nails it with her list of inflation-fueling factors. It parallels what Powell said more softly at the press conference.
Which Industries Lost Jobs, Which Gained Jobs: Longer-Term Employment Trends in Charts by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2024 • 49 Comments New all-time highs: Construction, Professional & Business Services, Healthcare, Wholesale trade. Layoffs whack Information.
Jobs, Wages, Mass Immigration, Full- and Part-Time Workers, Unemployment, Prime-Age Participation Rate, and Multiple Jobholders (who are they anyway?) by Wolf Richter • May 3, 2024 • 71 Comments But the undercount of mass-immigration distorts the household data.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.60 Trillion from Peak, to $7.36 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020 by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2024 • 209 Comments Quantitative Tightening has removed 38% of Treasury securities and 27% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
Delinquencies of Floating-Rate Office CMBS Loans Hit 20%, But Fixed-Rate Loans at 4.7% by Wolf Richter • May 2, 2024 • 20 Comments Revenge of the floating-rate CRE loans: Ironically, use of floating-rate office loans ballooned as interest rates rose.
Oh Deary, Where Did my Rate Cuts Go? Fed’s Wait-and-See Now Entrenched? And Suddenly Lots of Talk about “Rate Hikes” by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2024 • 166 Comments What Powell Said about rate hikes, no rate cuts, rate cuts, and the QT slowdown while getting rid of MBS entirely.
Fed Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Slowdown Starts in June, Acknowledged Inflation is a Problem Again by Wolf Richter • May 1, 2024 • 193 Comments New language: “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.”
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America amid the Now-Fizzled Rate-Cut Mania & Erstwhile Plunge in Mortgage Rates by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2024 • 145 Comments Rate-Cut Mania died, mortgage rates re-jumped to 7.5% today, but here’s what home prices did during Rate-Cut Mania.
Sagging Used-Car Prices, Spiking Maintenance & Repair Costs, and a Post-Bankruptcy Propaganda Coup Turn Toxic for Hertz by Wolf Richter • Apr 29, 2024 • 146 Comments Americans need lower car prices. But not Hertz. “The residual decline … was relative to both ICE vehicles and EVs”: Hertz
Money Market Funds, T-Bills, Large CDs, Small CDs: Americans Learn to Arbitrage the Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates by Wolf Richter • Apr 27, 2024 • 137 Comments There’s no need to still pay a “loyalty tax” to the banks.
