How Powell Kept a September Rate Cut up in the Air: It Will All Depend on the Data till Then by Wolf Richter • Jul 31, 2024 • 93 Comments “We’re balancing the risk of going too soon versus too late. There’s no guarantee in this. It’s a very difficult judgment call.”
Fed Statement Silent about September Rate Cut, Still Waiting for “Greater Confidence” about Inflation, Keeps Rates Unchanged by Wolf Richter • Jul 31, 2024 • 115 Comments Powell has some explaining to do. Only slight concessions about strength of the labor market and improvements in inflation.
What the Short-Term Treasury Market Says about Rate Cuts, and How Repeatedly Wrong it Was so Far by Wolf Richter • Jul 13, 2024 • 128 Comments Inflation has the upper hand. The market (Goldman Sachs and me included) vastly underestimated the Fed. Someday the market might get it right.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020 by Wolf Richter • Jul 5, 2024 • 93 Comments Quantitative Tightening so far has removed 41% of Treasury securities and 29% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
Who Holds the Recklessly Ballooning US National Debt of $34.7 Trillion? by Wolf Richter • Jun 23, 2024 • 169 Comments All of these Treasury securities have been sold. So here are the holders.
Fed Liabilities under QT Drop $1.71 Trillion, to $7.22 Trillion: Reserves, ON RRPs, Currency, TGA, Foreign Official RRPs by Wolf Richter • Jun 13, 2024 • 90 Comments The liquidity drain of Quantitative Tightening has come entirely from ON RRPs. Reserves have lots of liquidity left to drain.
Fed Sees Only 1 Rate Cut in 2024, Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT Continues at Slower Pace as Announced in May by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2024 • 126 Comments Higher for longer becomes formalized one meeting at a time, as projections for “longer-run” federal funds rate keep getting raised.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$107 Billion in May, -$1.71 Trillion from Peak, to $7.26 Trillion, Lowest since December 2020 by Wolf Richter • Jun 6, 2024 • 149 Comments Quantitative Tightening has removed 40% of Treasury securities and 28% of MBS that pandemic QE added.
How Home Purchases and Rentals Are Key to Bringing Down Inflation: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Explains by Wolf Richter • May 20, 2024 • 307 Comments Fascinating: “Prices that families pay” when they buy homes “can affect their overall well-being.”
The Reasons the Fed’s Bowman is “Willing” to Hike Rates if “Data Indicate Progress on Inflation Has Stalled or Reversed” by Wolf Richter • May 5, 2024 • 103 Comments She nails it with her list of inflation-fueling factors. It parallels what Powell said more softly at the press conference.
