Whacked Down by Plunging Inventories and Whacked Up by Plunging Imports, GDP Grows by 3.0% by Wolf Richter • Jul 30, 2025 • 22 Comments Consumer spending growth accelerated from low levels. Federal government spending drops for second quarter in a row.
Recession Watch: My Favorite Recession Indicator, Mid-June Update by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2025 • 118 Comments It says: “Not yet,” and “Quite a ways to go.” This trend has reversed before, but if it doesn’t and instead picks up momentum… Time to keep an eye on it.
S&P’s US Manufacturing PMI Shows “Solid” Growth Powered by Jump in Domestic New Orders. Canada & Mexico PMIs Tank by Wolf Richter • Jun 2, 2025 • 18 Comments But the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US shows contraction on declining new orders. The contradicting PMIs add to the confusing “soft data.”
Durable Goods Orders Made Ugly Headlines, but the 3-Month Average, which Irons Out Aircraft Orders, Rose to a Record by Wolf Richter • May 27, 2025 • 18 Comments And the backlog of unfilled orders remained at record high.
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
GDP Whacked by Massive Spike in Imports on Frontrunning of Tariffs. Consumer Spending Grew, Business Investment Soared by Wolf Richter • Apr 30, 2025 • 81 Comments “Final sales to private domestic purchasers” jumped by 3.0%, on strength in the private economy of businesses and consumers.
How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the “New GDPNow Model” Starting Apr 30 by Wolf Richter • Apr 28, 2025 • 66 Comments The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow could be all over the place, but nothing compares to how gold imports blew it up this time.
Services Activity Jumps in March, Cost Pressures from Tariffs & Staffing Well Up by Wolf Richter • Mar 24, 2025 • 44 Comments But “competition limited the pass-through of higher costs to selling price … which will harm profits.”
Will Economic Detox Lead to a Recession? Maybe Not. But a Long Deep Stock Market Rout Will (See Dotcom Bust) by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2025 • 220 Comments “We’re focused on the real economy,” Bessent said. “Ouch,” stocks said. Where did the Trump put go?
Our Drunken Sailors Partied Massively in Q4, Propped Up GDP Growth. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Worsened to 121.8% by Wolf Richter • Jan 30, 2025 • 59 Comments Biggest consumer spending surge in nearly two years overpowered the drop in private domestic investment and change in private inventories.
