Trade Deficit Drops to Least Terrible Level since 2009, upon which Atlanta Fed GDPNow Doubles Q4 GDP Forecast to +5.4% by Wolf Richter • Jan 8, 2026 • 37 Comments The GDPNow algo is to be taken with a teaspoon of salt, but it shows that a big improvement of the trade deficit pushes up GDP growth.
US Government Interest Payments to Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q3 2025 by Wolf Richter • Dec 24, 2025 • 102 Comments Update on a slightly less ugly situation.
WHOOSH, Went the Economy in Q3. The Fed Needs to Watch Out, Economy Is Running Hot by Wolf Richter • Dec 23, 2025 • 123 Comments Strong consumer spending growth (despite Sour Mood), big improvement of trade deficit, and government spending growth after two quarters of declines.
What Slowdown? Q2 GDP Growth Revised Up to Hot Zone of 3.8%, Stronger Consumer Spending & Private Fixed Investment by Wolf Richter • Sep 25, 2025 • 57 Comments Government consumption and inventories were a bigger drag though. All adjusted for inflation.
Manufacturing of Durable Goods on Rebound in the US by Wolf Richter • Aug 26, 2025 • 48 Comments Boeing & jet engine makers are part of it. And the other part is the rest of manufacturing.
Whacked Down by Plunging Inventories and Whacked Up by Plunging Imports, GDP Grows by 3.0% by Wolf Richter • Jul 30, 2025 • 22 Comments Consumer spending growth accelerated from low levels. Federal government spending drops for second quarter in a row.
Recession Watch: My Favorite Recession Indicator, Mid-June Update by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2025 • 118 Comments It says: “Not yet,” and “Quite a ways to go.” This trend has reversed before, but if it doesn’t and instead picks up momentum… Time to keep an eye on it.
S&P’s US Manufacturing PMI Shows “Solid” Growth Powered by Jump in Domestic New Orders. Canada & Mexico PMIs Tank by Wolf Richter • Jun 2, 2025 • 18 Comments But the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US shows contraction on declining new orders. The contradicting PMIs add to the confusing “soft data.”
Durable Goods Orders Made Ugly Headlines, but the 3-Month Average, which Irons Out Aircraft Orders, Rose to a Record by Wolf Richter • May 27, 2025 • 18 Comments And the backlog of unfilled orders remained at record high.
Recession Watch: Time to Dig Out Our Favorite Recession Indicator Again by Wolf Richter • May 8, 2025 • 101 Comments Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
