10-Year Yield Hits 4.40% as Bond Market Begins to Adjust to Higher Forever: Higher Rates and Higher Inflation by Wolf Richter • Apr 5, 2024 • 204 Comments Suddenly lots of talk the 10-year yield will revisit 5%, which is funny just a few months after Rate-Cut Mania.
Curse of Easy Money: US Government Interest Payments on the Ballooning Debt v. Tax Receipts, Higher Interest Rates, Inflation by Wolf Richter • Mar 31, 2024 • 201 Comments Biggest Drunken Sailors of all. Average interest rate on the Treasury debt spiked but is still only half of what it was in 2001.
Higher for Longer Inflation & Interest Rates Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings? Waiting for the 2-Year Treasury Yield to Overshoot by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2024 • 214 Comments Four decades of history say it’s not over until the 2-year yield overshoots the EFFR. It has undershot for a year, and inflation is taking off again.
“Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks Jump by 22% to $684 Billion in Q3, Oh Lordy by Wolf Richter • Nov 30, 2023 • 104 Comments They don’t matter until they suddenly do.
Could it Be the Fed’s Mega-QE Created so Much Liquidity that Tightening Doesn’t Work until this Excess Gets Burned Up? by Wolf Richter • Nov 10, 2023 • 400 Comments Financial Conditions loosen further: credit markets blow off the Fed to make sure “higher for longer” gets entrenched? That would be funny.
Credit Cards, the Biggest Payment Method: Balances, Burden, Delinquencies, Available Credit: How Are our Drunken Sailors Holding Up? by Wolf Richter • Nov 9, 2023 • 132 Comments Only 2% of credit card users are delinquent, according to new data from the New York Fed; 98% are current.
Highest-Ever Treasury Short Positioning by Hedge Funds into Last Week Was “Accident Waiting to Happen,” Massive Short-Covering Ensued, Pushed Down Yields. “Basis Trade” at it Again by Wolf Richter • Nov 6, 2023 • 97 Comments But now, the 10-year yield jumps 15 basis points from Friday. Short-covering has run its course?
Anything Unusual in the Drop of the 10-year Treasury Yield? Despite the Hype & Hoopla, it Hasn’t Done Anything Special by Wolf Richter • Nov 2, 2023 • 88 Comments Volatility. Powell mentioned it too. The 10-year yield is hugely volatile, and the drop over the past few days fits right in. Have a look.
Tsunami of Treasury Issuance Will Shift from Longer-Term Debt to Short-Term T-Bills & 2-Year Notes amid Intense Navel-Gazing about Spiking 10-Year Yield. by Wolf Richter • Nov 1, 2023 • 59 Comments The Spiking 10-Year Treasury Yields Apparently Rattled the Government’s Nerves.
Spectacle Ensues after 10-Year Treasury Yield Pierces 5%: Huge Demand Piles in, Yield Plunges 19 Basis Points in Hours by Wolf Richter • Oct 23, 2023 • 119 Comments Yield fixes all demand problems. You just have to hit the right number, and the right number today was 5%.
