Annual Benchmark Payroll Revisions: Nonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months to March Chopped by 911,000, to 1.44 Million Jobs Created by Wolf Richter • Sep 9, 2025 • 63 Comments Based on employers’ quarterly payroll filings. Why wait so long for revisions? Do it quarterly!
Stories of Homeowners Hit by Fallout from the Housing Bubble & 3% Mortgages Replace Breathless Media Hype of Bidding Wars by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2025 • 112 Comments Turns out, free money is a toxin. And now the housing market has cancer.
Scenario of a Triple Whammy for Long-Term Treasury Yields by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2025 • 116 Comments The Treasury market counts on the tariffs to slow the supply of new debt and could throw a hissy-fit if they end while the Fed cuts rates into accelerating inflation.
Bessent Blasts the Fed for QE, its “Perverse Incentives” for Fiscal “Irresponsibility,” “Wealth Effect” Policies, “Class and Generational Disparities,” Failure on Inflation… Oh I So Agree by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2025 • 216 Comments “This harmful cycle concentrated national wealth among those who already owned assets”: Bessent.
My Thoughts about that August Jobs Report by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2025 • 122 Comments Federal & State Governments Shed 28,000 Jobs in August. Private-sector hiring machine slows, waiting for clarity, but layoffs remain very low.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$39 Billion in August, -$2.36 Trillion from Peak, to $6.60 Trillion by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2025 • 42 Comments Compared to the size of the economy, the Fed’s assets are now down to 21.8% of GDP, where they’d first been in 2013.
Despite all the Shouting by the Cut-Rates-Now Crowd, Unemployment Claims Do Not Depict a “Cracking” Labor Market by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2025 • 60 Comments Unemployment claims are even with a year ago and are below two years ago.
ON RRPs Drop to Near-Zero $17.9 Billion, Liquidity Flow into Markets Over, while TGA Refilling Drains Liquidity from Markets by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2025 • 59 Comments Liquidity now begins to drain out of the markets for the first time since the debt ceiling.
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike by Wolf Richter • Sep 1, 2025 • 94 Comments Extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals widely implemented to “cure” delinquent CRE mortgages.
30-Year Treasury Yield Stuck Near 5% on Inflation Fears, but 6-Month Yield Drops, Sees Rate Cuts, Long End of Yield Curve Steepens a Lot, Mortgage Rates still over 6.5% by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2025 • 129 Comments The bond market’s reaction to cocktail of inflation fears, potentially lax Fed, and Mississippi River of new debt flowing into the market.
