Labor Market Tightens despite Tepid Job Growth as Labor Force Declines further amid Crackdown on Illegal Immigration

by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2026 • 2 Comments

A highly unusual labor market for the US, marked by a shrinking supply of labor.

Tesla’s Deliveries Spike 25% in Q2, despite End of Federal EV Incentives, as Gasoline Prices Soared. Shares Plunge

by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2026 • 4 Comments

But forget the Model S and X, and the Cybertruck.

Unwinding the “Lock-in Effect” Suddenly Stalls as Homeowners Stopped Paying Off Below-3% Mortgages

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2026 • 52 Comments

Those ultra-low mortgages wrecked the housing market, but homeowners had nevertheless been paying them off steadily – until now.

Yen Craters to 4-Decade Low, JGB Yields at 3-Decade Highs: Monetary Policy Mess Comes Home to Roost

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2026 • 27 Comments

The collapse of a currency is nothing to be trifled with. But the BOJ’s pussyfooted rate hikes & QT are too little too late.

Inflation & Nominal Economic Growth to the Rescue: The US Government’s Ugly Fiscal Mess

by Wolf Richter • Jun 30, 2026 • 78 Comments

US Government interest payments, tax receipts, tariffs, average interest rate on the debt, and Debt-to-GDP ratio in Q1 2026.

Inflation in “Core Services” Surges, plus AI’s Impact on Electricity & Goods: Inflation beyond Gasoline

by Wolf Richter • Jun 25, 2026 • 61 Comments

The 6-Month “core services” PCE price index jumped 4.2% annualized, pushed the 6-month core PCE to 4.1%, worst since June 2023.

Out Hiking in Europe. Shop (Partially) Closed through June

by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2026 • 74 Comments

I’ll have sporadic access to the internet and will read the comments; if I turn into a night owl, I might write an article.

US Government Sold $518 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 6-Month to 2-Year Treasury Yields Spike on Warsh’s “Regime Change” at the Fed

by Wolf Richter • Jun 19, 2026 • 42 Comments

The 1-year Treasury yield spiked by 16 basis points, to 4.0%, highest since July, three rate cuts ago, as the bond market now expects multiple rate hikes.

Era of “Powell Was Dovish” Is Over: Warsh’s Five Taskforces

by Wolf Richter • Jun 18, 2026 • 67 Comments

I have to say the FOMC press conference was a breath of fresh air.

“Regime Change” at the Fed: Fed Chair Warsh Makes the First Moves

by Wolf Richter • Jun 17, 2026 • 119 Comments

Everything is up for review. “There’s a taskforce for that,” he said. Dot plot, possibly the last one, turns hawkish.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, May 2026

by Wolf Richter • Jun 16, 2026 • 35 Comments

Home prices fell from peaks in prior years in 28 of the 33 cities, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -26%, while AI mania in San Francisco trickled down from “mansion shortage” to mid-tier.

Government Uses Strategic Petroleum Reserve as Cudgel to Beat Down Oil-Price Mania: Worked for Second Time

by Wolf Richter • Jun 15, 2026 • 63 Comments

A new role for the SPR. It wasn’t designed for that.

US Government Sold $646 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 2nd Wave of Inflation Approaches 10-Year Treasury Yield

by Wolf Richter • Jun 13, 2026 • 54 Comments

How the long-term Treasury debt grows: Treasury notes & bonds outstanding rose on net by $59 billion this week.

Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as “Real” Yields Turn Negative

by Wolf Richter • Jun 12, 2026 • 63 Comments

Inflation surged past these yields, though they’ve started to rise again. Households nevertheless poured more money into them.

What Homebuilder Lennar Said about the Tough Housing Market: Average Sales Price Down 24% from Peak, back to 2017

by Wolf Richter • Jun 11, 2026 • 79 Comments

Cut the price, and they will buy. Dealing with the affordability crisis. Sales volume is up, but shares have plunged by nearly 50%.

Producer Price Inflation beyond Energy: 6-Month Services PPI, “Core” Goods PPI & “Core” PPI Blow by 6%, Worst since 2022

by Wolf Richter • Jun 11, 2026 • 32 Comments

The surge in energy costs is bad, but there’s a lot of inflation from other sources.

CPI Inflation 4.25%, Blows by 2-Year Treasury Yield, Closes in on 10-Year Treasury, Driven by “Supercore” Services, Gasoline, Electricity

by Wolf Richter • Jun 10, 2026 • 111 Comments

Supercore services inflation surged, after taking off last fall. And AI data center demand drives electricity inflation.

Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes at 10-Year High, Condo Supply at 12-Year High, Sales still in Freezer

by Wolf Richter • Jun 9, 2026 • 54 Comments

Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).

As Home Sellers Grapple with Reality, Listing Prices Fall by Most in at Least a Decade

by Wolf Richter • Jun 8, 2026 • 66 Comments

But each market dances to a different drummer, and declines have been far bigger in many markets.

There’s Trouble Brewing in the Treasury Market

by Wolf Richter • Jun 6, 2026 • 83 Comments

Inflation is the bane of the bond market. And it is now demanding multiple rate hikes, starting late this year.