Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$13 Billion in June, -$2.31 Trillion from Peak, to $6.66 Trillion. New Milestone: 3 Years of QT

by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 45 Comments

The new and improved Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sprang into action for one day at quarter-end on June 30.

Beneath the Surface of the Employment Report: How Jobs Evolved by Industry over Time, Winners & Losers

by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2025 • 14 Comments

The job creation machine is running at a decent pace, unemployment is historically low, but it’s not evenly spread across all industries.

Despite Ugliness at Stellantis, Nissan & Tesla, New Vehicle Sales in Q2 Rose to the Best Q2 since 2021. But June Stalled

by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2025 • 100 Comments

Cybertruck may be entering automotive history as the most expensive failed model ever.

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.1% in June, Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown Peak, after 3-Month Relapse

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 84 Comments

A Los Angeles tower, FEMA headquarters in Washington, 100-year-old tower in Manhattan join list; some delinquent loans were “cured,” including by transfer to a custodial receiver and extend and pretend, and came off the list.

Tariff Cash Is Rolling In: June’s Record Take Spikes by $20.5 Billion Year-over-Year

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 71 Comments

Businesses have been paying them out of their huge profits and have not been able to pass them on to consumers so far.

Underlying Labor Market Dynamics Are Solid, Recession Stays on the Back Burner

by Wolf Richter • Jul 1, 2025 • 34 Comments

Companies don’t just suddenly drop everything to stew in their own juices.

Exit from the “Lock-in” Effect Slowed in Q1 as Home Sales Deteriorated Further and Supply Spiked

by Wolf Richter • Jun 30, 2025 • 83 Comments

By the time they finally wanted to sell their home, it wasn’t easy anymore because demand had plunged, and fewer of those mortgages got paid off.

The Historically Wide Spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates Widened Again: Some Thoughts

by Wolf Richter • Jun 28, 2025 • 137 Comments

Mortgage rates, QT, yield spreads, inflation, and a bond market that is not to be trifled with.

That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 29 Comments

Wages & salaries rose at a solid pace, but Social Security payments returned to trend after a spike in April due to policy changes.

PCE Inflation Accelerates. But Tariffs Haven’t Shown Up Yet: Why the Fed Is in Wait-and-See Mode

by Wolf Richter • Jun 27, 2025 • 71 Comments

The 6-month PCE price index accelerated to 2.8% annualized, despite dropping energy prices. It’s been 2.7% to 3.3% in 2025, sharply higher than in the 2nd half of 2024.

The Corporate-Profit Explosion Stalls in Q1, on the Eve of the New Tariffs

by Wolf Richter • Jun 26, 2025 • 62 Comments

In some industries, profits surged. In others, profits sagged. By major industry.

Inventory of New Single-Family Homes for Sale Highest since 2007, amid Record Pile-up in the South, as Sales Drop: Homebuilders Face a Tough Market

by Wolf Richter • Jun 25, 2025 • 80 Comments

Lennar’s average sales price drops to lowest since Q2 2020, gives up entire 2020-2022 price explosion. Homeowners wanting to sell have no idea what they’re up against.

The Somewhat Bedraggled US Dollar against the Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Dollar Indices, and Soft Currencies like the Indian Rupee

by Wolf Richter • Jun 24, 2025 • 38 Comments

No longer the cleanest dirty shirt.

Condo Sales Drop to Lowest in the Data, Supply Highest since Housing Bust. Single-Family Home Sales Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016

by Wolf Richter • Jun 23, 2025 • 151 Comments

Demand destruction on an epic scale, after the price explosion. And inventories are piling up.

The 10 Big Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-8% to -22%) from Peak through May

by Wolf Richter • Jun 22, 2025 • 57 Comments

Austin, Oakland, New Orleans, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Denver, Portland, Phoenix, Fort Worth, San Antonio.

Who Held or Bought the Huge US Government Debt even as the Fed Shed Treasury Securities in Q1? An Iffy Situation

by Wolf Richter • Jun 20, 2025 • 41 Comments

Here’s who dumped and who bought over the years through Q1.

The Condo Bust Is Here: Prices Dropped Already 10% to 23% in 20 Bigger Cities, Unravel the Most Splendid Condo Bubble Ever

by Wolf Richter • Jun 19, 2025 • 94 Comments

Oakland, Austin, St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, San Francisco, Boise, Jacksonville, Detroit, New Orleans, Arlington, Tampa, Reno, Seattle, Denver, Mesa, Chandler, Portland, Aurora, Phoenix, San Antonio.

Fed Sees Hotter Inflation for Longer, Higher Unemployment, Slower Growth, “Dot Plot” Shifts More Hawkish but still Sees 2 Cuts in 2025. QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Jun 18, 2025 • 120 Comments

“Uncertainties” rule. Wait-and-see amid inflation fears and slowing growth.

My Thoughts about those Retail Sales

by Wolf Richter • Jun 17, 2025 • 149 Comments

Looking at the nuts and bolts, we see that the spending goes on, even if the mood is ultra-sour.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May 2025: The Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros

by Wolf Richter • Jun 16, 2025 • 73 Comments

US year-over-year home-price gain shrinks to 0.4%. Prices drop YoY in 18 of the 33 metros: San Diego, Austin, Tampa, Miami, San Francisco, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle…