Oakland, Austin, New Orleans, Manhattan, Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), Sarasota County, San Francisco, Birmingham, Washington DC, Denver, Phoenix, Contra Costa County…

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Prices of mid-tier single-family homes in 14 bigger cities and counties have dropped by 10% to 25% through October from their respective peaks in prior years, seasonally adjusted, after mindboggling price explosions of 60%, 70%, and even over 80% from mid-2020 to their peaks.

The bigger cities or counties with the biggest price drops of mid-tier single-family homes from their peaks (year of peak):

1. Oakland, CA: -25% (2022)
2. Austin, TX: -24% (2022)
3. New Orleans, LA: -19% (2022)
4. Manhattan (New York County), NY: -16% (2020)
5. Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), FL: -16% (2022)
6. Sarasota County, FL: -16% (2022)
7. San Francisco, CA: -15% (2022)
8. Birmingham, AL: -14% (2022)
9. Washington, DC: -13% (2022)
10. Contra Costa County (SF Bay Area), CA: -12% (2022)
11. Denver, CO: -11% (2022)
12. Collier County (Naples), FL: -11% (2024)
13. St. Petersburg, FL: -11% (2024)
14. Phoenix, AZ: -10% (2024)

Didn’t make the list: There are many other bigger cities and counties where mid-tier single-family home prices have declined from their respective peaks in prior years, but not enough to make the 10% cutoff.

In eight of them, prices have dropped by about 9%. Others are still quite a bit away from the 10% line. I added San Mateo County this time; it tracks the northern part of Silicon Valley, but its many cities are too small for the list of “bigger cities” here.

Prices in Orange County have just begun to decline earlier in 2025 and are down 2% so far, seasonally adjusted, and so it didn’t even make this list, but we’ll keep our eyes on it.

Here are some examples (year of peak):

• Mesa, AZ: -9% (2022)
• Glendale, AZ: -9% (2022)
• Aurora, CO: -9% (2024)
• Ft. Worth, TX: -9% (2022)
• Portland, OR: -9% (2022)
• Chandler, AZ: -9% (2022)
• San Antonio, TX: -9% (2024)
• Sacramento, CA: -9% (2022)
• Seattle, WA: -8% (2022)
• Gilbert, AZ: -8% (2022)
• Boise, ID: -7% (2022)
• Memphis, TN: -7% (2022)
• Colorado Springs, CO: -7% (2022)
• Arlington, TX: -7% (2022)
• San Mateo County, CA, part of Silicon Valley: -7% (2022)
• Tampa, Fl: -6% (2024)
• Dallas, TX: -6% (2024)
• Plano, TX: -6% (2024)
• Atlanta, GA: -6% (2022)
• San Diego, CA: -5% (2024)
• Jacksonville, FL: -5% (2024)
• Spokane, WA: -5% (2024)
• Orlando, FL: -5% (2024)
• San Jose, CA: -4% (2024)
• Houston, TX: -4% (2024)
• Corpus Christi, TX: -4% (2024)
• Los Angeles, CA: -3% (2024)
• Reno, NV: -3% (2024)

The year-over-year price declines were led by:

1. Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers): -10.2%
2. Sarasota County: -10.1%
3. Oakland: -9.7%
4. St. Petersburg: -9.2%
5. Austin: -6.7%

Methodology and data: These prices are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of single-family mid-tier homes in “cities” or “counties” (not in Metropolitan Statistical Areas, which are much larger). All data here are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.

The 14 bigger cities & counties with the biggest price declines:

The metrics in each table from left to right: price decline from the peak, month-over-month change (MoM), year-over-year change (YoY), and the remaining increase since January 2000 (for Birmingham, since 2002, which is as far as the data goes back).

Oakland, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25%	-0.3%	-9.7%	276%

Prices are back to 2018. In the 10 years from mid-2012 to the peak in May 2022, prices exploded by 236%.

Austin, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-24%	-0.1%	-6.7%	166%

New Orleans, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2007
-19%	-0.5%	-2.8%	106%

Back to 2020. Prices have given up the entire 23% price spike between mid-2020 and mid-2022.

Sarasota County, FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.7%	-10.1%	214%

Over the two years from mid-2020 to mid-2022, prices had exploded by nearly 70%.

Manhattan (New York County), NY, Single-Family Home Prices
From Mar 2020 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	0.5%	0.1%	292%

 

Lee County, FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-16%	-0.7%	-10.2%	189%

The county includes the cities of Cape Coral and Fort Myers. From mid-2020 to the peak in mid-2022, prices exploded by 69%. This kind of buyers’ behavior is mindboggling.

San Francisco, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-15%	0.8%	0.3%	237%

Prices first seen in mid-2018.

Birmingham, AL, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2002
-14%	0.2%	-2.6%	32%

From mid-2020 to mid-2022, prices exploded by 53% and have given up about one-third of that by now.

Washington D.C., Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-13%	0.1%	-4.4%	272%

Back to April 2020.

Contra Costa County, CA, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-12%	-0.1%	-4.8%	192%

This San Francisco Bay Area county (East Bay) is home to 1.16 million people, but spread over lots of smaller cities. Back to mid-2021. Prices had exploded by 38% from mid-2020 to mid-2022.

Phoenix, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.2%	-4.5%	247%

Back to December 2021. Since mid-2020 and mid-2022, prices had exploded by 60%.

Collier County, FL, Single-Family Home Prices
From Mar 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.5%	-8.0%	242%

Includes the city of Naples. From mid-2020 to the peak in mid-2024, prices had exploded by 82%, which was nuts.

Denver, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	0.1%	-4.3%	212%

St. Petersburg, City, Single-Family Home Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11%	-0.5%	-9.2%	351%

Lowest since March 2022.

And in case you missed it:  

The 24 Bigger Cities where Condo Prices Have Dropped by 12% to 29% through October

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Large Expensive Metros in October 2025

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WOLF STREET FEATURE: Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer, TheTechnicalTraders.com.