Our F-150 XLT & Camry LE Price Index, Going Back to 1990, Is Updated with 2025 Model-Year Prices. There Were Some Twists

Ford cuts truck prices after grotesque increases in prior years. Toyota axes the base Camry; new base Camry is a more expensive hybrid.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

It’s this time of the year again: Ford is starting to build the 2025 F-150 this week, and final prices are posted on its website. What’s different this year is that, after the obscene price increases in the prior two model years, Ford cut the MSRP for its 2025 trucks. The MSRP of the two-door, rear-wheel-drive, base-everything F-150 XLT was cut, cutely, by $2,025, to $45,595, from last year’s $47,620.

That magnitude of price cut, in dollar terms and in percentage terms (-4.3%), has never before happened in the price index going back to 1990. But Ford jacked up prices by a grotesque 35% over the prior three model years, and the price cut only rolls back a small portion of these obscene price increases.

Toyota sort of went the opposite direction with its 2025 Camry: It axed the base model Camry LE that formed the data points in the WOLF STREET F-150 XLT & Camry LE Price Index going back to 1990. The new base version is now the Camry LE Hybrid, which last year was a $2,400 option, and now it’s the minimum low end you can buy. So there is a $1,980 price increase in the MSRP of the base Camry this year, to $28,400, from the base Camry last year of $26,420. But you get a hybrid even if you don’t want one.

In the 1990s, when trucks were still reasonably priced, the Camry LE was more expensive than the F-150 XLT. But by the 2000s, automakers started turning trucks into a higher-end product, and by the 2024 model year, the F-150 was almost twice as expensive as the Camry LE, and Americans were playing along because they like big equipment and generally don’t mind paying out of their nose for it. But there are limits.

As pickups got way too expensive in recent years, with huge profit margins for automakers and dealers, sales stalled and inventories are now piling up. This year, sales have to be stimulated with massive incentives. So Ford is doing the right thing by cutting MSRPs, but the cuts from the grotesque spike in the prior two years may not be enough.

Total MSRPs are even bigger. These MSRPs in our index do not include Ford’s “destination and delivery” charges of $1,995 (same as last year) and Toyota’s “Delivery, Processing and Handling” charges of $1,135 (up from $1,095 last year).

Including the charges, the total MSRP of the base F-150 XLT declined to $47,590 from last year’s $49,615. And the total MSRP of the Camry LE rose to $29,535, from the base Camry LE last year of $27,515.

The CPI for new vehicles, which we compare to the prices of the Camry LE and F-150 XLT, after exploding in the prior three years, fell back a little over the past 12 months, tracking the real-life issue of new vehicles having gotten too expensive, with sales hitting resistance, and inventories piling up. To stimulate sales, automakers and dealers have piled on massive incentives and discounts. The CPI for new vehicles, which tracks the purchase prices paid by customers, did a pretty good job tracking this.

The CPI for new vehicles has been tracking the Camry’s price developments pretty closely since 2010, but rose faster than the Camry model years 2023 and 2024. For the 2025 model year, we no longer have the same base model of the Camry, and the new base model that is now a hybrid is more expensive than the prior base model.

Since 2010, the CPI for new vehicles has risen by 27.8%, outrunning the price increases of the Camry LE through the 2024 model year (+20.6%).

But the upgrade of the base Camry to the hybrid pushed the Camry’s rate of price increases since 2010 to +29.7%, above the rate of increases of the CPI.

Since 2010, the MSRP of the F-150 XLT has risen grotesquely by 73.7%, despite the cut this year.

We use the base F-150 XLT and the base Camry LE for two reasons: One, because both go back beyond 1990; and two, because both have been bestsellers in their categories, true mass-market vehicles. Other models, such as the Corvette or the Mustang, go back even further, but they have never been mass-market vehicles.

Toyota killed our price index, but it lives on. The 2025 upgrade to a hybrid powertrain makes the base Camry a different model, in a different price category, and it is no longer comparable to the prior base Camry. With this shift in models, Toyota killed our price index. Nevertheless, it lives on, because stuff happens, technologies change, cars get better, Ford trucks now come with a base 10-speed automatic transmission with hybrid still optional, and life goes on. So there!

Obviously, MSRP is not the price buyers actually pay. In 2021 and in 2022, during the time of the shortages, dealers sold trucks with odious addendum stickers on top of MSRP. People should have walked out and wait a couple of years before buying. Some did, many paid the addendum stickers on top of MSRP. Now trucks, with dealer lots full of them, are selling for large discounts off MSRP.  But we use MSRP as a common thread in the index over the three decades, even if people paid more or less for their vehicles.

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  132 comments for “Our F-150 XLT & Camry LE Price Index, Going Back to 1990, Is Updated with 2025 Model-Year Prices. There Were Some Twists

  1. Wolf Richter says:

    Good lordy, what dumb BS.

    1. But it’s tomato paste, not new vehicles. This is why there is a CPI for new vehicles and a CPI for used vehicles and a CPI for gasoline and a CPI for canned tomato paste.

    2. Haircuts are not new vehicles either. That’s why there are CPIs for services, such as insurance, rent, and personal services, such as haircuts.

    Read this and learn something about inflation by product and the corresponding CPI categories so you don’t have to post this dumb uninformed nonsense here.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/10/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-core-cpi-accelerates-for-3rd-month-on-sharp-flip-of-used-vehicle-prices-amid-sticky-services-inflation-gasoline-plunged/

    • sufferinsucatash says:

      Awwww he don’t likes no fancy data like cars.

      Ye go on down to that there motor lot if youns wants a car so bad.

      Donts have no uses for fancy numbers.

      😉

    • Skippy says:

      I read his message as an interesting little addition to the conversation, not a criticism of your car price index.

      • Bailouts4Billionaires says:

        Same, agreed. I also thought it was an unnecessarily harsh, and non-sequiter, response. There can be a million different types of inflation gauges, Mario simply pointed out a very simple one based on one simple product that has not changed much over time, unlike the base Camry. My first car, loved that thing!

        Good article, though! I found the last chart the easiest to parse. 30% increase over 14 years works out to less than 2% annually. Even the 75% increase over 14 years is like 4% annually, which when you look at it that way, isn’t as astronomical as the 9% peak inflation in one year we just lived through. Though most of that was since the pandemic, and can still be blamed on the gd fed.

    • Gary says:

      Appreciate the info, anecdotal went to our local auto mall and it was incredibly quiet. Decided to rebuild the suspension of a 2008 V6 Malibu, because even those days are gone with the “Fred Flintstone” cartoon hybrids and rubber band CVT transmissions. In the parts department was a small block chevy V8 with a four barrel carburetor on it, I could almost wrap my arms around it and give it a hug.

      • Wolf Richter says:

        We have a hybrid with one of those “rubber band CVTs”; it’s a wonderful system, super-smooth, mouse-quiet, not shifting, 40-50 mpg including in the city, trouble free, and maintenance free. You go hug those old pushrod cast-iron V-8s with their carbs and three-speed automatics. Enjoy!

  2. Michael Engel says:

    Honda Accord 2025 from : 28,295. Honda Accord hybrid from : 33,655.
    Toyota Camry LE hybrid from : 28,400. That’s a 5K discount.
    There are still too many 2024 in the parking lots

    • Nunya says:

      Agreed! I’ve always been a Honda fan, three are sitting in my driveway. At the same time, I’ve always wanted to buy a Camry, but the Accord was always a better value. This year is the first time I have seen the tables get flipped on the Accord.

      Maybe my dream of owning a Camry will come true!

      • Evgeni Belin says:

        I was a Honda fan too. The emphasis on “was”. Honda completely mismanaged last 15 years, starting with low tension piston rings, followed by direct-injection only (Toyota went 4ds – direct and port), followed by cylinder deactivation. The value prop of Hondas is harder to understand now: if you drive your vehicles until the wheels fall off — they are almost designed to not last beyond 10 years; if you drive 5-7 years — you but at discount and sell at a deep discount.

        I’m still kicking myself for selling prelude at 150k, and you will only pry my mdx’08 from my dead cold hands.

        Note to Wolf: Camry and f150 are not priced correctly for “car CPI”. Typical CPI item (say, bread) is not designed to be financed — price is precisely the “burden” one feels financially. If you want to make comparison more legit (and way scarier) — you should roll into price financing charge (say, 60 months, 7.5% today). The gap between f150 and Camry will widen even more, as you say, grotesquely.

        Cheers!

        • Wolf Richter says:

          You don’t get to decide what you want to put into CPI, LOL. Assuming some interest expenses and then adding them to purchase prices is beyond silly. Lots of people pay cash. Interest is a service that is separate. FYI: Some people finance bread on their credit cards too, at 30% interest.

  3. peter says:

    I find the only way to buy a vehicle that makes sense is to go down-market. The model names are just names. The companies want you to anchor to the names and of course to their brands.

    • Brooks says:

      You’re speaking of a car as a utility. Many people enjoy cars and don’t want the cheapest down-market option.

      • tobi says:

        any entry car today is full of technology that was rare to find in suercars 40 years ago.

        • electroneuter says:

          While there are people who buy car for the cheap tech (yes cheap), big chunk of us still care about things like handling, acceleration, deceleration, image, and tradition. Yes, tradition. (the valuable stuff)

          You see, for some people, tradition is what makes a good car, Subaru is good because of Impreza off-road racing history, same goes for Audi Quattro, Ford GT and Audi diesel in LaMan, Honda and Mercedes in F1, etc.

          For others, it’s about the number of C ports, and wireless phone charging.

        • Gaston says:

          Technology doesn’t make a car. Nothing about CarPlay makes the steering feel better or improves suspension quality.
          For a lot of people a car is more than the tech inside and it’s basic utility value of going from a to b.

          It’s not for everyone, but people should realize vehicles are not just bought for utility and tech.

  4. Anthony A. says:

    The base Camry was an affordable and practical car. I put two kids through college with each driving very used, high miles, 4 cylinder 4 door Camry’s. When they graduated and wanted a better car (from their earnings), they sold the Camrys with near 300 K miles on them. Normal maintenance and no headaches with those older Camry’s (1998, 1999 years).

    • Greg P says:

      Or, to put it in the same price point with the Ford F-150 XLT – perhaps the Tesla Model Y. The base Model Y with 337 miles range sells for $44,900. When launched in 2020 it had a base price of $51,190.

      Don’t get me started on Chinese EV’s… check out the 2025 BYD Song L if you want to see the US car manufacturers panic.

      • Bobber says:

        Nice car. How much will that BYD cost after the 100% tariff?

        • KGC says:

          Saw one for $44,000 in my local MBZ dealers lot (they also sell BYD) here in Germany. That should scare the UAW and Big 2 management spitless.

        • tom10 says:

          Why only 100%?

        • grant says:

          Such tarriffs can’t last forever. Eventually voters will decide they want cheap cars more than they want to subsidize inefficient domestic car markers.

          Even if the tarriffs remain, the chinese automakers will make production plants in Mexico just like the japanese did.

          Until then: foreigners will enjoy the selection that north americans deny themselves.

        • NBay says:

          Tom,
          The Gilded Age actually was the “Age of Betrayal,” in which the obsession with wealth caused Americans to lose sight of the democracy they’d fought to sustain during the Civil War.

          They had PLENTY of tariffs of all sorts back then, too, in case you didn’t know, and it gave our corporations enormous power…..IM VERY HO we seem to be headed that way again….but I’m not known here for understanding the economics and effects of tariffs well like our new President does. (Wharton grad, ya know?)

        • NBay says:

          Make that tariffs AND taxes. Having studied no Economics, (and I suppose paid the price for it) I’m sorta out of place here in understanding the effects of either on the working class I once was in……till my back was completely trashed.

      • Ethan in NoVA says:

        New cars for US markets have to pass NTSB crash tests right? Wonder how the Song L does in that. It’s one thing to have cool addressable RGB LED strips, it’s another to survive after someone plows into you in an Escalade while fleeing some charges.

        • VintageVNvet says:

          And THAT is exactly THE problem Ethan,,, or at least a damn shore WAY too much part.
          Forgive me youngsters, but, ”back in the day” I had the old 6 volt VW bugs w 1100 engines that could get up to 70 MPG if driven carefully ‘on the road’ and close to 50 around town…
          Then, an entire generation of vehicles later, mid 1980s, similar MPG from Honda’s smallest vehicles with the same size engine.
          Time and enough to INSIST that the GUVMINT allow those of us who drive with total regard for the constant dangers of folks out of their minds; especially those out of their minds while focused entirely on their screens of any kind,,, to buy THE most cost efficient to own and operate and equally generally cost efficient savest vehicles ”’ of our choice”’ to get us from A to B.
          WE, in this case the WE who are on fixed incomes can only HOPE at this point, despite the promises of the incoming politician(s).

    • Brant Lee says:

      Still no headaches with my 2010 Camry. Purrs like a cat. I think I’m going to see just how long this baby will go. Then when there is a major breakdown I’ll just pull it over to the side of the road and buy another.

      • BobE says:

        For my 2009 Toyota Venza, the engine purrs like a kitten but the alternator, shocks, and windshield wiper sprayer pump have failed in the last 6 months. Death by a hundred pen knives.

        On the positive side, I’ve never owned a car this long without buying a new one in frustration.

  5. Greg P says:

    It would be interesting to try to do the same thing with the Tesla Model S. The price (and options) have bounced all over the place, but even without tax incentives, you can buy a Tesla Model S base today for $40,000 less than 6 years ago for a comparably equipped vehicle. Tesla seems to be trying to achieve margin by cost cutting – versus raising prices ad infinitum.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      That’s why Tesla has gained market share in leaps and bounds, while Ford, GM, and Toyota have lost market share in the US, and Stellantis got crushed. Hyundai-Kia also gained market share. Price matters.

      • Cas127 says:

        ZIRP abuse strikes again.

        Broadly speaking, it seems fairly clear that many of the products with the most ruthless, relentless inflation (SF homes, autos, higher education) are (rather disgustingly) the *highest* ticket ones…precisely because they are traditionally *financed*.

        Long term interest rate strangulation by our enormously indebted government, has – at the very least – facilitated this price engorgement by creating the “affordable ownership” illusion – keeping monthly payments more or less constant…even as total face price was empowered to surge, without destroying demand…temporarily.

        But ZIRP was an illusion and mother of illusions…creating artificial, unsustainably low interest rates (via money printing to buy Treasuries at non-economic rates…and inevitably, citizen inflation).

        But the second reality re-introduces itself (unZIRP) the ZIRP powered monthly payments explode (due to vastly inflated face prices) and demand is annihilated (see 33% decline in SFH sales).

        All very predictable…and the hopeless madness of a dying Establishment whose bill for decades of false promises is coming due.

        • Cole says:

          You’re kinda right on higher education, but wrong at the same time. States have been cutting higher education funding. Every time they cut, tuition increases. Where you’re kinda right is that part of the reason is that those who want to go can get a loan. Private education, they just seem to want the rich people only

        • Cas127 says:

          Cole,

          If public colleges could sustain themselves at $5k per year in tuition in 1997 (ballpark figure), there is little honest reason they can barely sustain themselves at $20k per year in 2024 (ballpark again) – they simply abused (hunted hard for things to spend money on and ignored every possible cost savings) the enormous subsidies they received from governments (via somebody’s *taxes* and everybody’s *printed* money) and further gamed/abused the student loan system (and, therefore, students).

          A six-teaching-hour-per-week-prof who made 60k in 1995, makes what today? How much has useless academic administrative overhead/personnel (otherwise known as Bought Votes) been increased?

          Homebuilders were just as bad (interest rates halved? Double our prices!! Thanks, ZIRP!) but with marginally less sanctimony.

        • Shiloh1 says:

          The Big Ten, at least around the Great Lakes, has always played the game of limiting the in-staters (lower tuition) and expanding out-of-staters / international admissions.

        • Cole says:

          My experience with public universities is most professors are making maybe 80k except the most senior ones. Furthermore, trying to compare inflation that applies to consumers to public education is flawed. Public education’s highest cost is wages. The second highest cost is facilities maintenance, followed by IT infrastructure costs. I first hand saw how cutting public funding lead to tuition increases along side staffing cuts to the point where there was really no more room to cut staff and still provide the same level of service. Any further cuts would have led to cutting out student activities, which is a necessary part of the college experience. College is also about learning to adapt socially into adult life for those who attend as well.

        • cas127 says:

          Cole,

          I disagree with many of the specific points in your latest post – but at least initially, I will only focus on one – state university wages/staffing levels.

          1) I think that if you look at institutions across the nation, the number of university employees per student (*especially* non-teaching employees) is markedly up over the years/decades of relentless tuition inflation.

          Why did universities do this?

          A paid public employee is a bought vote for future institutional funding.

          2) The pay (*especially* total compensation, including non/lower taxed benefits) is also markedly up per employee.

          So “wages” (rather total compensation) is indeed a/the major cost of running a university – but colleges have overhired, overpaid, and under-worked (*6* teaching hours per prof per week for 75% of the year is not a holy sacrament) their “true” staff – for decades.

          (In contrast, they treat their undergrads, graduate teaching staff, and instructors like crap).

          Colleges have created their own “cost crisis” over decades by perpetually lobbying for/Hoovering up every conceivable public subsidy (direct funding, endowment tax exemptions, student loan industrial complex, etc.) and behaving as though the gravy train could never end – regardless of the quality of colleges’ actual output/work.

          Like most government bureaucracies, state universities are poorly run precisely because they have been so heavily subsidized for so long, with little effective accountability.

      • SeanDF says:

        Tarrifs will temporarily defer the final demise of ICE manufacturers, but they are all whistling past the graveyard. Ford, as an example, loses $40,000 on every EV, and similar losses are booked by most legacy producers, GM, VW, Mercedes, BMW. The weight of servicing accumulated debt plus terminal negative cash flow, will bring all of these companies to their knees. We’ll see Chinese companies like BYD and CATL onshore state of the art factories to compete with Tesla while legacy companies crash and burn.

        • Cole says:

          Clearly you have no idea that the reason these Chinese EVs are so cheap is the heavy Chinese government subsidies. Take that away and they won’t be able to compete.

        • themsicles says:

          As if US of A doesn’t subsidize companies and products. Get a grip.

          Who bailed out the automakers in 2008? Santa Claus? Who gives big tax breaks to companies for setting shop in a city / state?

          US Govt across all levels subsidize big companies all the time.

          They also inflate the price of assets via direct intervention in the bonds market.

          China rightly is blowing past USA in green energy because they realize where the future is. There’s no EV subsidy to spite US companies. They are investing in their future as they should.

          Even the US EV tax credits is based on cars being majorly produced here. Is that not a US subsidy?

          I’m so fed up with people throwing the word “China” as if it automatically makes any action inferior and morally suspicious.

        • tobi says:

          BMW is earning a lot of money on their EVs.

        • johnbarrt says:

          China is “blowing past the US in green energy “- must be why they’re building 2 new coal fired plants a month ! China and “green energy” LOL

        • Wolf Richter says:

          johnbarrt,

          China is building far more wind-power, solar power, and hydro power than any country in the world, and has far more installed capacity than any country in the world. And it is building far more nuclear power plants than anyone else in the world. It also builds some coal power plants and some natural gas plants. Your brain was polluted by idiot headlines.

        • ShortTLT says:

          China’s switching of their long haul trucks from diesel to CNG is partly responsible for the weak global oil demand.

        • Cole says:

          themsicles… I have friends that have come from China and tell me what really goes on there. If you think China isn’t trying to dominate the world by selling EVs, solar, steel, etc under what it costs to make it, you’ve been living under a rock. We aren’t talking subsidies in the form of bailouts here. The bailouts we’re about saving jobs and our own economy. Tax incentives are about convincing our own people to buy EVs while at the same time protecting our own economy. We aren’t trying to hurt the economies of other countries. We’re putting a thumb on the scale where China is putting a whole fist on the scale. If it were me, any Chinese company that wants to do business here would have to partner with an American company and share all it’s data with the government, just like China does to foreign companies.

      • grant says:

        Wat? Tesla’s NA market share in Jan 2023 was 5%. by Dec 2023 it fell to 4.2%.

        https://www.statista.com/statistics/519579/market-share-of-tesla-in-the-united-states/

        Tesla’s NA sales have also dropped year-over-year for 2024 Q1, Q2, Q3. So at best its share is treading water, not “gaining by leaps and bounds”.

        Tesla’s price cuts are reducing the drop in sales, but their sales are still dropping.

    • Ethan in NoVA says:

      The wild thing is Tesla offers upgrades via software licenses. Friends bought more performance a year or more after car purchase when there was a sale on the upgrade. It’s like an IBM mainframe, where you bought it all and are driving the capability but they hold stuff back for upsells. Same with the self driving stuff.

      It offers an additional revenue stream for Tesla that others don’t have much of. It saddens me that more people aren’t hacking them though (you get banned from supercharging if they find you in the computers.)

      • ShortTLT says:

        You can do that with ICE too. I got about 30 more horsepower by re-flashing my ECU with more aggressive fuel tables and engine timings.

      • Rob B. says:

        Auto Manufacturers have done this for a long time, not over-the-air, but that’s just a result of advances in wireless networks which makes that feasible.

        BMW, Ford, Chevy, Dodge, Mazda, Toyota and pretty much everyone else all have affiliated tuning shops that will provide software (and hardware) that will increase performance and maintain the factory warranty.

        The trend of “Connected cars” has actually limited the ability to do so outside of what the manufacturer allows. I was able to “hack” both my Mazda and BMW to run on Ethanol and nearly double the horsepower of each with a few bolt-ons and a more aggressive software configuration. With the Model 3 I’m leasing it’s pretty much limited to whatever software-locked performance Tesla wants to offer, which is pretty meh for enthusiasts.

  6. GuessWhat says:

    So for the F-150 from 2019 to 2020, there was no price increase and then BAAM, zoomed up out the wazoo! Ford needs to continue to be hammered. I hope their financial woes continue. They represent everything wrong with American manufacturing right now.

  7. Slick says:

    I wonder how tariffs will affect the top imports like Toyota and Honda?

    • Greg P says:

      Most of the Japanese car companies manufacture in the US for this very reason. And they actively manage car sales volume to prevent taking over GM. Any time they start getting too much market share, they increase prices.

    • Drm says:

      Camrys are made in Kentucky. Accords in Ohio. Tariffs not going to matter. Tariffs from the Reagan era is why those are made in the USA.

      • ShortTLT says:

        Yup my RDX was made in Ohio… at least it still uses metric nuts & bolts.

    • Nunya says:

      Not as much as people may think. Honda/Acura/Toyota/Lexus vehicles top the charts of most “American” made vehicles, even when accounting for imported components. Tesla tops the list as well.

      The “American” brands barely make the top 10 in these yearly lists. The “American” brands have a history of very poor management. Most recent terrible decision from Ford was to kill the “car” and give up that market to the foreign companies. One of the most shocking, calculated, terrible business decisions from Ford. Getting into the EV and burning cash like it’s 1999 might go down as a dumb move as well, but yet to be determined.

    • grant says:

      I would expect the Japanese importers to retain their existing bespoke tarriff levels.

  8. Ol'B says:

    Good god. You’re telling me a base, cloth interior, plastic floor roll up window regular cab short bed V6 F150 is forty five thousand dollars??

    I bought a similar 2001 Chevy Silverado for $15k. I should have kept it, it would be worth more today with 200,000 miles on it.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      But you get a 10-speed automatic transmission and all kinds of other goodies as standard equipment that you could not even dream about back in 2001.

      • KingLion65 says:

        More goodies that are not necessary for what the pickup truck is actually needed for.
        As a fleet buyer for more than 40 years running my construction and forest businesses, we don’t replace vehicles until the cost of maintenance exceeds the residual value of the unit. Generally around 3-400,000 miles on them.

        These upscale cowboy Cadillacs loaded with “goodies”, don’t represent value.
        Want goodies and gizmos?
        Buy an S550 and you will have a vastly superior value for not much more money than a loaded up RAM or Ford F series platinum. But to each his own…

        • Wolf Richter says:

          Sure, but the percentage of Americans that buy a truck for commercial purposes, such as towing trailers professionally or using it in their construction business is minuscule. Americans buy trucks because they LOVE trucks, and WANT a truck, not because they need a truck, which is why trucks are bestsellers. The percentage of Americans who actually need a truck is minuscule. The 500 hp 4×4 crew cabs have become luxury items, selling for $80k+. And they’re selling in large numbers too despite their price tags because Americans LOVE big powerful luxurious equipment. Back in the day, a friend of mine traded in his Porsche 911 for one of those. And that has always been the case, even in my day. Most of the trucks we sold, we sold to people who WANTED a truck and loved trucks and couldn’t imagine driving anything else. So once that is established, you might as well get the truck that has everything you want (though you don’t need it), from backup camera and 4-wheel drive to the 10-speed tranny and the 450 hp motor. That’s the one thing you need to understand about the American car business, or you’ll never understand it. It doesn’t matter what you think about “value.”

        • Biker says:

          If they love and want then the price tags on these F-Series should not be of a concern of anyone? What’s the problem then? ;)

        • Wolf Richter says:

          Biker

          People are not stupid, that’s the problem.

        • Cole says:

          If you’re buying fleet, you’re buying an xl model from Ford or a w/t model from Chevy. These are only available to fleets and presumably why wolf uses the XLT.

        • Shiloh1 says:

          I’m good with a Ford, as long as it’s at least 15 years old. Leaving the goodies to the kiddies.

      • Cas127 says:

        But, as you’ve noted, Wolf…GM/Ford/Atlantis(soon…) refuse to give buyers any *choice* to buy the stripped-down, barebones $15k model – they refuse to produce anything other than the super-duper-shiny-insanely-priced-but-worth-it-we-swear-Transformer-mobile (with 12 heated, talking cupholders…) for $45k.

        And from 2002-2022 exploited ZIRP to obscure the relentless price inflation (when not pointing at the Pandemic, and progressively vaguer “supply chain” justifications).

        ZIRP-exploiter-wise, not as bad as McMansions-for-McMorons homebuilders…but close.

      • Gaston says:

        Does the 10 speed tranny cost more to make than whatever transmission was installed in 2001?
        Both transmissions were “modern” for their times.

        I don’t think one can always justify higher price just because modern tech improved in both design, materials and manufacturing techniques/quality

        Like saying the f-150 must cost more because the 2024 V-8 produces 400hp and in 2001 it only produced 260hp in its largest offered capacity (larger than the current 5.0)

        • James says:

          I will keep my in very good condition 1985 F-150 thanks!

          A breeze to work on/looks great but am still willing to 4 wheel with it/carry a load.

          I need a new motor about 3000 and easy to install/same with C-6 transmission(will admit only has 3 forward gears!)

          Mine is built up carb/headers/cam ect. with lift and large tires and the mint interior protected at least seats with heavy canvas covers.

          New pickup,eh….,no thanks!

  9. Iws says:

    Cars are obviously way too expensive.

    I think EVs are going the way of flat screens TVs. Consumer electronics commodities. From cheaper and getting cheaper (thankfully) to bespoke/expensive.

    You will be able to buy a 2023 Tesla M3 for $20k after the $4k tax credit Jan 1. You also also save $100 month on gas. Nice 👍

    • Sufferinsucatash says:

      Yeah but what if you add all the software?

      And Tesla financing?

      What’s the out the door?

      • Gaston says:

        What does checking off options have to do with a cars base msrp?

        What does financing have to do with a cars msrp?

        Out the door can be msrp + tax. Just adjust your buying method to do that.
        And for the record, no new model 3 will be sold for $24k. The msrp is $44k. Maybe you’ll find a leftover 2023 base which msrp’d for $38k.
        $20k will be used.

        • sufferinsucatash says:

          Umm cuz I live in the REAL world.

          I’m glad questions bother you.

  10. sufferinsucatash says:

    I’m seeing a ton of these weighted work trucks with the horse trailer extended mirrors.

    But they race them down the highway tailgating other drivers.

    Are these for some business or people are just recreationally getting 4 miles to the gallon?

    “Mom, Dad I want a weighted truck! Tommy has one!”

    • Home toad says:

      Speaking of the horse, great grandpa would make his way down the dirt road on bandit, his chestnut appaloosa. No gas station needed, just some tall green grass. Bandit like most horses were ridable for about 20 years. People loved their horses, absolutely loved them, if you were to steal someone’s horse, they would hunt you down like a dog and hang you.

    • Tankster says:

      Most of these trucks/SUVs only get off-roading when the driver, usually the wife coming home from tennis Pickleball, cuts too hard, turns right, and goes over the curb.

  11. Dark Artist says:

    Companies just can’t resist price gouging, can they? The market that Ford is serving becomes a secondary concern, behind corralling the biggest profit possible. Long-term sustainability of profits is ignored, in favor of a year or two’s “humps” of profits. It is most unwise.

    • Gattopardo says:

      It’s not gouging if you willingly pay it.

      • Cas127 says:

        Broad lack of reasonable commuting alternatives ain’t exactly “willingly”.

        But producers with an oligopoly, who abuse the crap out of it…tend to anger enough people that alternatives get developed…eventually.

        For instance, within a year or two, internet-powered commute sharing (once people are car-price-pissed enough) could become a thing.

        Definitely an inferior alternative…but compared to doubled/tripled auto prices?

        ZIRP hid/empowered all this absurdity/chaos…but no more.

        • vvp says:

          You can *not* buy a pickup truck. Like the chart shows how much you are gauged depends on how well marketing has convinced you that your identity is tied to your car

        • cas127 says:

          wp,

          I get your point – but the fact that American auto makers have largely stopped even really trying to make traditional cars (more-or-less definitionally less expensive than SUVs or trucks(!!)) undercuts your argument.

          Simply look at the lowest cost *vehicle* for any/all manufacturers. You will see a story of American makers essentially abandoning the lower cost market – and almost all manufacturers significantly increasing/compressing their vehicle price ladder upwards (that’s what less competition on the low end will get you).

          The only real question is whether or not true production costs have driven this inflation or ZIRP-empowered financing games. delusions have

  12. nsa says:

    IWS: “cars are obviously way too expensive”. Relative to what? Ding ding ding…….S&P 6000 ATH……..ding ding ding…….BitCoin 85,000 ATH……..ding ding ding. By comparison a new 45k beer can bodied dad truck or new $28k reliable office worker sedan look quite reasonable.

  13. Bob says:

    How much extra for a gun rack and “A Goat Roper needs love too” sticker for the F-150?

    I laugh thinking about how archeologists in the future will try to explain all the crap they dig up from the “late civilized human” period.

    • sufferinsucatash says:

      “Obviously their first world problems drove them insane.”

    • James says:

      Bob,my rifle rack for behind bench seat in me truck cost about 10 dollars in materials and a couple hours time,holds AR-10 securely.

      Padded lock box located(bolted) on floor about 80 bucks,holds a full size 1911 with extra mags just fine ,70 series of course!

  14. ShortTLT says:

    Wolf, why not switch your car index to the Civic? That’s another mass-market model that’s been around forever.

    • SoCalBeachDude says:

      Why not totally ignore all these junk vehicles and focus on the only brand that actually matter, which, of course, is BMW.

      • ShortTLT says:

        Because beemers fall apart after 10 years lol.

        I really enjoyed my old roommate’s 2001 S4 Avant… but he turbo-swapped it and blew up his engine…

        • SoCalBeachDude says:

          No, they most certain do not ‘fall apart’ at all, and used BMWs of 20+ years constantly bring very high prices on BAT (Bring A Trailer) as they are superb vehicles.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      You go dig up the MSRP data (minus destination and delivery charges) of the Civic for every year going back to 1990, then give it to me in spreadsheet format, and then I might do it.

      The Camry has outsold the Civic. The Civic was a small car in the 1990s. That’s why I collected the Camry data. The equivalent to the Camry is the Accord. I have most of the Accord data, but I’m missing some older years and have trouble finding them. It’s not like this stuff is easily downloadable from the 1994 internet.

      When Ford switched to the 10-speed automatic transmission, I also stuck with the truck. There are a lot of tech improvements that happen all the time, it’s just that the hybrid switch was a big leap all at once, dollarwise.

      • ShortTLT says:

        Fair point – I hadn’t considered the challenges to sourcing the data. I guess I just feel the hybrid drivetrain is a… fundamentally different design. But you’re right about the march of technology.

        Pardon my Honda fanboyism.

      • Ol'B says:

        Back in the ’80s and ’90s I was a “car guy” – did some tinkering, did some racing. I think at one point I had six or seven car magazines coming to the house. Sometime around 1990 Car and Driver did a “Twelve cars for under $10k” comparison and I just remember being so impressed by what that got you. Civic CX hatchback with a 4-speed manual and AC. Nissan Sentra with 110 smooth horsepower. I had late 1970s cars with V8s that barely topped that and they got 14 mpg.

        Anyway, the world and the auto market has changed. $30k is probably the new $10k but the cars now have 10 airbags and stability control and 200+ HP and still get 35mpg. The last new car I bought that I was very impressed by was a gas VW Jetta that got 48-50 mpg on a freeway trip to California once.

    • Nick Kelly says:

      And in its new clothes as the CRV

  15. SoCalBeachDude says:

    Bitcoin tops $88,000 amid crypto euphoria…

  16. Glen says:

    Toyotas move made a lot of sense. Super high gas mileage and that will play well. Any increase in base cost easily recovered with gas costs especially in states like CA. Writing has been on the wall for sometimes now and really going hybrid is a low risk move but a smart one. I bought an ICE Rav4 in 2017 so will hold on but if I was to make the same decision that might change as differential is shrinking.

  17. Thurd2 says:

    Hybrids are the way to go, Honda Accord or Toyota Camry (Japanese have pretty bizarre names for car models). Does a hybrid count as an EV, or a half of an EV? Would I get half of the government rebate they give (gave?) on Teslas. Hybrid batteries are a lot cheaper to replace than EV batteries, maybe cost a couple of thousand dollars. Also Hybrids are not known to explode at random like some EVs. Some of these reasons are probably why Toyota switched to making all Camrys hybrids.

    Unless needed for work or to tow an RV, buying an American-made pick-up is idiotic. A quick anecdote about big vehicles: some dope in my apartment complex bought a Hummer, but there was no parking spot big enough for it. So he had to park it on the street, and it stuck out pretty far into traffic with the passenger-side wheels an inch from the curb. I haven’t seen the monstrosity for a while. He probably had to get rid of it, or maybe he moved to Podunk Indiana.

    • Publius says:

      PHEVs used to “count” as partial EV for rebate purposes, but I don’t think hybrids ever did. However, they increase fleet MPG and thus lower government-imposed penalties.

      • Wolf Richter says:

        Correct. “Hybrids” that you don’t plug in don’t count as EVs. They’re ICE vehicles (you get gas) with a more efficient power train. That’s all they are, and it’s a great technology.

        Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) are ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains but a bigger battery that you can charge at home and bigger electric motor so they can operate on battery alone for long enough to commute to work, like 30 miles or so. They don’t count as “battery electric EVs” or just EVs” either. They’re usually listed separately, such as “EVs and PHEVs”

        All hybrids are often lumped into “electrified” vehicles with EVs, such as by Ford, which is very confusing, and you have to sort through the details carefully.

        Some PHEVs qualify for US tax credits. Regular hybrids don’t.

        But not many people buy PHEVs because they’re really both, ICE vehicles and EVs, and they come with the worst of both worlds, and are expensive for what you get.

        Regular hybrids are very popular, taking a larger and larger share from non-hybrid ICE vehicles.

        So all this is very confusing, you have to pay attention to the details when you read things.

        In my articles, an EV is always exclusively a battery-electric vehicle without ICE. The rest are ICE vehicles with or without hybrid drive.

    • Kent says:

      My neighborhood was built in the early ’90’s here in Florida. The biggest pickups sit too high, and some are too long, to fit in the garages. Our HOA rules used to state that all cars have to be parked in the garage overnight. That rule got changed about a decade ago.

      • crazytown says:

        Off-topic tidbit: starting in 2024, HOA’s in Florida are not allowed to enforce parking restrictions on personal vehicles in driveways.

    • ShortTLT says:

      Notice how Honda & Toyota use ‘words’ for model names, but their performance names (Acura & Lexus) use letter/number designations.

      I like the idea of hybrids, but they are a much more complex design than pure ICE or pure EV.

      Wolf talks a lot about how Americans love pickups, but I guess I’m a contrairian because I don’t get it. I have a mid-sized SUV because I often need to haul gear for work, but I wish I could downsize. I had a sedan when I was younger and miss the handling that comes from being low to the ground.

      If I didn’t find myself occasionally driving offroad in Maine, I’d get some aftermarket coilovers and lower my car by an inch or two…

      • crazytown says:

        Hybrid transmissions are amazingly simple and they have proven to be incredibly reliable. I don’t buy the claims that hybrids are more complex than pure ICE. I would trust a Toyota or Ford hybrid transmission much more than a Nissan CVT or Ford truck 10 speed.

        I have over 100k miles of experiences with both Ford hybrids and GM small turbo engines. I’ll take the hybrid for reliability every time.

        • ShortTLT says:

          Don’t they have to be, definitionally? You have two powerplants that have to route power to the transmission/differential/etc.

          Of the mfgrs that do hybrids – I’d guess Honda and Toyota have the most reliable models.

          But don’t hate on small turbo motors – my Honda K23 just hit 188k miles and still has its stock turbo.

        • crazytown says:

          No, and Ford’s hybrid design is shared with Toyota so they are the ones that should be on your list and not Honda (Honda’s current system is not as tried and true – their older IMT hybrid system was a much different and weaker design – so hard to say how reliable their latest system is but I assume very good).

          A hybrid is an ICE but instead of a complicated transmission it has a planetary gearset with 2 electric motors. Then an inverter and battery to feed the electric piece. It’s really not two separate powerplants, it’s a replacement for a traditional transmission and has proven to be much more robust than many automatic transmission designs.

          Hybrids sound complicated on paper but I promise you that they have proven themselves many times over in extreme fleet conditions. There are Prius models out there who have gone 300k+ miles on the original battery.

  18. WB says:

    Truck prices too high, no problem. Just sell some of your bitcoin. Priced in bitcoin, these trucks have gotten cheaper. It should be clear to everyone that bitcoin is the solution preventing a global hyperinflation.

    Interesting times.

  19. Max Power says:

    On a fit-for-purpose basis, one would want to match the 1990 Camry with today’s Corolla as they are appx. the same size car, while today’s Camry is a much larger vehicle than the 1990 model. Today’s Camry also has appx. twice as much horsepower as the 1990 Camry (the base, non-hybrid 2025 Corolla has almost 50% more HP than the 1990 Corolla).

    • Max Power says:

      Correction to the last sentence: the base, non-hybrid 2025 Corolla has almost 50% more HP than the 1990 Camry

    • ShortTLT says:

      “Today’s Camry also has appx. twice as much horsepower as the 1990 Camry…”

      But is the displacement much different, or are there other advances in engine technology that bring more power?

    • crazytown says:

      A great way to lie with statistics would be to somehow graph a 1990 Camry morphing into a 2025 Corolla over time… that would be missing the whole point of the article. The Camry has been Toyota’s mid-size sedan for decades regardless of the actual dimensions of the car. It has been bigger than the Corolla the entire time so why would you compare to a Corolla?

      • Max Power says:

        As I said in my post, I was approaching it from a “fit-for-purpose” perspective. In other words, someone looking to purchase a product fulfill a certain purpose… for example, serving the transportation needs of the similarly sized family or hauling the same amount of stuff.

        As for what name the car maker slaps on a given configuration… that’s just semantics.

        • crazytown says:

          A similar size family in 2025 that would have been buying a 1990 Camry would statistically be more likely to be buying a 2025 Rav4 instead based on sales figures. This model didn’t even exist in 1990. Wolf uses the Camry and F150 because they are long-produced staples of the segments they are in. The fact that both vehicles are larger, heavier, more powerful, more luxurious in 2025 than 1990 is meaningless to what this article is showing. From our fearless leader himself:

          We use the base F-150 XLT and the base Camry LE for two reasons: One, because both go back beyond 1990; and two, because both have been bestsellers in their categories, true mass-market vehicles. Other models, such as the Corvette or the Mustang, go back even further, but they have never been mass-market vehicles.

      • SoCalBeachDude says:

        It makes no sense at all to compare a Camry to a Corolla which has always been a bottom-of-the-barrel Toyota compact.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Max Power,

      Yeah, but then compare today’s base F-150 XLT to a 1990 F-150 XLT: they’re also much bigger, taller, much more powerful, with lots more stuff, including going from a 4-speed automatic to a 10-speed automatic. This happened across the vehicle spectrum. Today’s Ranger (midsize truck) is close to the 1990 F-150 in size. And Ford’s “compact” truck, the Maverick is closer to the size of the 1990 Ranger.

      • Gaston says:

        The Ranger is close in length to a 1990
        F-150 Reg Cab 8ft bed truck.

        But they are different trucks. One is a single cab 8ft bed work truck. The other is a crew cab with a 5ft bed.

        Specs the same a 2024 f-150 reg cab 8ft bed is 18 in longer, 7 in taller, 10 in wider (width is actually the big difference)

        • Wolf Richter says:

          “But they are different trucks.”

          Yes, absolutely, you made my point. Thank you! I replied to someone up there (“Max Power”) who said that the new Corolla is the size of a Camry and suggested that “On a fit-for-purpose basis” the index should compare the old Camry to the new Corolla. To point out the silliness of this suggestion, I explained what happened to the sizes of the trucks. You gotta read the whole thread, it gets kinda confusing sometimes.

      • Thurd2 says:

        You have to do hedonic adjustment, like the government does with CPI. Good luck with that can of worms.

  20. Michael Engel says:

    1) Printed money caused inflation. Pickup trucks are up 50% between 2020 and 2024. Rent is up 40%/50%, along with house prices. Those who drive to walmart with their pickup trucks are struggling to pay their monthly bills. Ford and GM hiked in order to finance their EV.
    In the last four years inflation is up 50% years. BLS cpi is fake.
    2) The globalists are worse than communists. They want one system to
    dominate the world. They order nations to build a bridge to the world
    and put their walls down. The Chinese fungals invaded nations, reduced their sovereign rights, telling them and us what to do. They can prevent new loans, or confiscate their assets. They destroyed our industrial base.
    3) Fake, printed money caused inflation. Tariffs reduces inflation. Tariffs
    suck printed money, protect workers and nations sovereign right.
    4) If the gov will be fully committed to cutting debt: tariffs and higher
    tax collections will fill coffer. If the Fed cuts rates gov debt can plunge 30%/50%. Trust in the US dollars will rise.

    • SoCalBeachDude says:

      Any rate set by the Federal Reserve has no impact whatsoever on the yields of US Treasuries which are established by the free markets in the largest bond markets in the world.

    • AndyfromLV says:

      Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. Those taxes increase the costs of those goods. Those costs will be passed down to consumers. When the prices of goods goes up, we call that inflation.

      • Wolf Richter says:

        What you cited is globalist copy-and-paste propaganda. Obviously, non-Americans have gotten fat off the profits made by these huge trade deficits that the US has, so they would be opposed to ending this gravy train for foreign producers.

        Tariffs are tax on the profit margins of foreign producers and US importers. They may or may not be able to pass them on. And tariffs don’t stop trade, but they change the math of where something is produced.

        Read that above paragraph over and over again until it sinks in.

        The Chinese have used heavy tariffs very successfully in building and protecting their manufacturing industries that now dominate the world. Other countries have too, including Canada.

        Tariffs shift the economics to producing more in highly automated plants in the US than producing in factories overseas. This is not instant, but it’s high time that the US protect and build its manufacturing base in order to not be entirely overrun by heavily subsidized and protected manufacturers overseas.

        For example, in the auto industry, where a big part of the production takes place in the US — all major foreign automakers manufacture vehicles in the US — importers are unlikely to be able to pass on tariffs. Instead, they’re going to eat the tariffs because if they try to raise prices on imported vehicles, consumers are going to buy a US-produced vehicle for less.

        Currently prices are falling in the US because they’ve been jacked up too high and demand is weak if prices rise further. Inventories are piling up. Demand is decent at lower prices. Vehicles is about 20% of retail sales, it’s huge, and good luck trying to pass on tariffs. So tariffs are an effective tax on foreign producers and importers of motor vehicles. Consumers will not pay them, shareholders will. And foreign producers will.

        When foreign automakers and US importers get tired of eating the tariffs, they will shift production of vehicles and components to the US — that’s the purpose of tariffs, and it’s working with motor vehicles.

        Some items like T-shirts might get more expensive. 60% tariffs on T-shirts might make a T-shirts $0.60 more expensive, so it might cost $10.59 instead of $9.99, if the consumers go for it. That’s = 60% tariff on $1, the price at which the Bangladesh factory sells the T-shirt to the US importer (such as Walmart). Tariffs are imposed on the importer’s cost, not on the retail price in the US. But apparel is only a small part of what the US spends its money on, and it’s not a critical technology.

  21. WB says:

    Never understood some of my friend’s desire to drive big truck and then spend even more to lift them up to drive around the city spending their money on gas and insurance. I fully support their ability to do this, it’s America after all, but I’d rather invest my money and take trips around the world with the dividends…

  22. Anonymous says:

    I drive an old pickup. I have had to redo a lot of the wiring myself because they don’t make the harnesses anymore and even if I could get one at the junkyard I would have to take the whole damn thing apart. My Mad Max soldering job looks meh but is weather resistant and it still runs great

    The money I have saved I have put into NVDA which at this point would pay for a new truck

    However I will drive this garbage until the AI Singularity arrives

    Which will be soon. Stay tuned

  23. ru82 says:

    Used car market prices are dropping.

    I was going to sell a 2005 decked out camry solar convertible with 64k miles on it a year ago. I had some offers in the low to mid 9k range but decided to keep it. I sold it last week and only had one offer above 8k and several in the mid 7k range. I sold if for $8100 and it was in excellent condition.

    • VintageVNvet says:

      Good report ru. except you misspell name of the car???
      Toyota HAS been one of the very best and most reliable vehicles, but recent reports suggest challenges.
      Time will tell, as always,,,
      Certainly going to be relevant to our next new or almost new purchase, similar to the 2009 Cobalt purchased used that year, and continuing, with over 100K to be one of the ”best buys ever.”

      • SoCalBeachDude says:

        Toyota are not the ‘best’ vehicles by any stretch of the imagination and are just low-end by vehicles by any standard including nearly all Lexus models made by Toyota.

    • ru82 says:

      LOL Toyota Camry Solara

  24. SoCalBeachDude says:

    MW: 10-year Treasury yield ends at 4-month high

  25. SoCalBeachDude says:

    1:04 PM 11/12/2024

    Dow 43,910.98 -382.15 -0.86%
    S&P 500 5,983.99 -17.36 -0.29%
    Nasdaq 19,281.40 -17.36 -0.09%
    VIX 14.77 -0.20 -1.34%
    Gold 2,606.90 -10.80 -0.41%
    Oil 68.03 -0.01 -0.01%

  26. SoCalBeachDude says:

    MW: Hertz booked a $1 billion charge as the value of its cars dropped

  27. Tom says:

    Great comparison, thanks for effort preparing it. Was there also comparison of VW Golf (or some other model) prices with CPI? I think I saw it here, but could be elsewhere.

  28. SandyEggan says:

    Just purchased a 2017 Chevy Volt (PHEV) for my new driver. Great condition, but I spent $14,900 on it which was more than I wanted but not too bad. I like the safety features and fewer visits to the gas station.

    I understand the concern about having two power trains vs one, but I think the ICE in a hybrid probably gets less wear and runs in a more comfortable range than a traditional ICE.

Comments are closed.