Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Here we track 33 big and expensive cities. In 27 of the 33 cities, prices of mid-tier single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in February were down from their respective peaks in prior years, led by Austin (-25%), Oakland (-25%), and New Orleans (-19%).

In five of the 33 cities, prices have continued to rise, though at a much slower pace than in the heady free-money days of 2021 and 2022, and reached new highs in February on a seasonally adjusted basis: New York City, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Omaha.

All of these 33 cities had huge price gains in the two years between mid-2021 and mid-2022, and some had veritable price explosions in those two years, led by Austin +62%, Phoenix +60%, Fort Worth +50%, Raleigh +49%, and Sacramento +39%, fueled by the Fed’s reckless free-money policies which generated the below-3% mortgages even as inflation was heading toward 9%, and by crazed FOMO buying behavior.

Those price gains came on top of the outsized price gains in the prior years. In many of the 33 big and expensive cities here, prices have more than doubled in the 10 years between 2012 and 2022, and in some cities more than tripled, such as in Oakland, Austin, and others — a historic affordability problem with big economic and social consequences. Price drops have begun to whittle away at the affordability problem, but just barely.

The price measurement here is the seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released today. Mid-tier means the middle-third by price in each market. The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Zillow’s Database of All Homes also has sales-pairs data.

To qualify for the list of the 33 most splendid housing bubbles, the city must be one of the largest by population and be among the expensive cities where the ZHVI for all mid-tier homes must have been at least $300,000 at some point. Some cities that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because the ZHVI for all homes never reached $300,000, despite the surge in recent years, such as the cities of New Orleans, Houston, Philadelphia, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, etc.

But, but, but… Houston, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Omaha are included anyway:

• Houston because it is the fourth-largest city in the US, and at the peak was not that far from $300,000;
• New Orleans because it got within spitting distance of $300,000 in 2022;
• Philadelphia because it’s the sixth-largest city in the US, though home prices were far below the $300,000 cutoff (it’s a deal: 6 mid-tier homes in Philadelphia for the price of 1 in San Jose);
• Omaha, because it’s within spitting distance of the $300,000, and because it’s the most expensive big city in the center of the US.

The 33 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.

In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. The column furthest to the right shows the percentage increase “since 2000.” All seasonally adjusted.

Oakland, City, CA, All Homes, Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25.4%	-0.2%	-9.1%	247%

Lowest since October 2017.

Austin, TX, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-25.3%	-0.5%	-5.9%	156%

And prices continue their return to reality.

New Orleans, LA, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2007
-19.0%	0.0%	-3.6%	106%

Lowest since February 2020.

Washington D.C., All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11.7%	-0.2%	-3.0%	259%

San Francisco, CA, City, All Homes, Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-11.3%	1.0%	4.0%	223%

As AI mania is now in full swing, despite all this talk about tech layoffs, and with investor-provided circular AI money flowing knee-deep through the streets, there is now a “mansion shortage,” that is spreading pressures into mid-tier homes too.

Denver, CO, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10.7%	-0.4%	-4.3%	202%

Phoenix, AZ, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-10.3%	0.1%	-3.2%	250%

Fort Worth, TX, City, All Homes, Prices
From Aug 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-9.3%	0.0%	-3.1%	189%

Portland, OR, City, All Homes, Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-8.7%	0.1%	-1.3%	218%

Sacramento, CA, City, All Homes, Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-8.3%	0.0%	-2.9%	286%

Atlanta, GA, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.8%	-0.1%	-4.0%	140%

Jacksonville, FL, City, All Homes, Prices
From Nov 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-7.0%	0.3%	-3.6%	204%

Seattle, WA, City, All Homes, Prices
From May 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-6.9%	0.1%	-2.2%	231%

Tampa, FL, City, All Homes, Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-6.0%	0.2%	-3.9%	312%

Dallas, TX, City, All Homes, Prices
From May 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-5.9%	0.0%	-3.8%	216%

Orlando, FL, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.7%	0.0%	-3.8%	241%

Nashville, TN, City, All Homes, Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.5%	-0.3%	-2.8%	215%

Honolulu, HI, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jun 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.5%	0.1%	-0.3%	207%

San Diego, CA, City, All Homes, Prices
From July 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.1%	0.1%	-3.4%	348%

Houston, TX, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jul 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-4.1%	-0.1%	-3.0%	155%

Raleigh, NC, City, All Homes, Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.8%	0.0%	-2.6%	149%

Las Vegas, NV, City, All Homes, Prices
From June 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.2%	-0.1%	-2.6%	177%

San Jose, CA, City, All Homes, Prices
From Jan 2025 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-3.0%	-0.2%	-2.7%	344%

Miami, FL City, All Homes, Prices
	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.7%	0.1%	-2.3%	342%

Los Angeles, CA, City, All Homes, Prices
From Dec 2024 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.7%	-0.1%	-1.9%	328%

Salt Lake City, UT, All Homes, Prices
From July 2022 peak	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-2.4%	0.2%	1.7%	242%

Charlotte, NC, City, All Homes, Prices
	MoM	YoY	Since 2000
-1.7%	0.0%	-1.4%	168%

Boston, MA, City, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.1%	-0.4%	265%

Just a hair below a year ago. March 2025 had been the high so far seasonally adjusted.

Ohama, NE, City, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.2%	1.0%	151%

Minneapolis, MN, City, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.3%	1.2%	197%

Philadelphia MSA, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.2%	2.1%	273%

Chicago, IL, City, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.4%	2.5%	115.0%

New York City, NY, All Homes, Prices
MoM	YoY	Since 2000
0.6%	4.0%	236.6%

Eked out a new high, surpassing the high from July 2022.

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how: