California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The average retail price of gasoline, all grades combined, at gas stations on Monday spiked by $0.49 from the prior week, by $0.60 from four weeks ago, and by $0.73 (+25%) from the low point in January, to $3.63, the highest since June 2024, according to EIA data released this morning, based on a survey of gas stations on Monday.
Year-over-year, gasoline is up by 14%. These prices will enter into the inflation calculations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Fed-preferred PCE price index for March, to be released in April.
The three-and-a-half-year long zig-zag decline in gasoline prices — from over $5 at the top of the spike in mid-2022, to the low point in early January of $2.91 — was a substantial contributor to the cooling of overall consumer price inflation rates. That has now flipped, and gasoline prices will cause inflation rates to accelerate, instead of slowing them.
Consumers don’t buy crude oil, and the historic spike in the maniac futures market for crude oil and then the huge plunge on Monday to still high crude oil prices don’t enter into consumer expenditures and inflation measures.
But retail gasoline prices do, and they do it directly. And diesel prices – which matter directly only to a small number of consumers with diesel-powered vehicles – feed into transportation costs which tend to feed into the costs of goods and services.
The current spike comes on top of the increases that started in January, bouncing off the low point of $2.91 on Monday, January 12. This chart shows a close-up of the situation:
Gasoline prices vary widely by state. Here is a sample of states, average retail price, all grades, on Monday March 9, and on Monday February 9, and the month-to-month percentage increase.
| Average gasoline price by state | Mar 9 | Feb 9 | % MoM increase |
| California | $5.21 | $4.43 | 17.7% |
| Washington | $4.61 | $3.96 | 16.6% |
| Colorado | $3.59 | $2.83 | 27.1% |
| Florida | $3.57 | $2.90 | 23.2% |
| Ohio | $3.55 | $2.83 | 25.4% |
| New York | $3.48 | $3.00 | 15.9% |
| Massachusetts | $3.47 | $3.03 | 14.7% |
| Minnesota | $3.33 | $2.77 | 20.0% |
| Texas | $3.23 | $2.57 | 25.7% |
And the price varies by city. Here are some major cities, average retail price, all grades, on Monday March 9, and on Monday February 9, and the month-to-month percentage increase:
| Average gasoline price by City | Mar 9 | Feb 9 | % MoM increase |
| San Francisco | $5.39 | $4.59 | 17.3% |
| Los Angeles | $5.19 | $4.38 | 18.4% |
| Seattle | $4.80 | $4.20 | 14.4% |
| Chicago | $3.73 | $3.19 | 16.8% |
| Miami | $3.62 | $2.97 | 21.9% |
| Denver | $3.60 | $2.84 | 27.0% |
| Boston | $3.53 | $3.07 | 15.1% |
| Cleveland | $3.51 | $2.91 | 20.7% |
| New York City | $3.48 | $2.96 | 17.5% |
| Houston | $3.17 | $2.53 | 25.3% |
The average retail price of diesel at gas stations on Monday spiked by nearly $1 from the prior week and by $1.40 (+40%) from the low point on January 12, to $4.86, the highest since October 2022.
Year-over-year, diesel is up by 36%.
Only a small portion of consumers drive vehicles with diesel engines – some pickups and SUVs, and some older European imports. So diesel prices weigh relatively little in the consumer price inflation measures, unlike gasoline.
But diesel prices feed into transportation costs, which feed into prices of goods and services down the line, and some of them may make it into the prices that consumers pay for goods and services, which will show up as inflation with a delay.
These prices at gas stations on Monday had zero to do with any imagined supply issues, since gas stations were jacking up prices of the fuel that was already in their tanks paid for at prior prices, and so the profit margins of gas stations just spiked. They do that because they can. Consumers, befuddled by all the stuff in the crisis-media, submit to those higher prices and pay them. Gas stations will pay more for their new supply of gasoline as refiners jack up their prices, and their costs will go up, and they’ll hike prices until consumers begin to aggressively shop around for deals, and cut back some on consumption, which will cause gas stations that are losing business due to their pricing to back off.
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Filled up premium at Costco in Dallas yesterday — $3.47 – thanks for reporting the details behind the madness and clickbait.
Gas a month back was $2.37 when I was in Appleton. Yesterday in Green Bay it was $3.19.
I just want Costco news atm.
What’s on sale?
Haha
I have a friend who is an executive with Outback Steakhouse and I asked him one time what was the single largest factor that determines the overall health of the restaurant industry. His answer surprised me. It wasn’t the economy or inflation or any of the typical factors one would think that it would be. It was the price of gas. He said there is a direct correlation between gas prices and the number of people that ate at his restaurants and others like it. It is so accurate he doesn’t pay attention to hardly anything else when it comes to forecasting sales.
I stopped eating at the Outback when their steaks became disappointing about two decades ago. The old tired chain, acquired by Bloomin’ Brands, has closed dozens of restaurants in 2024 and 2025 trying to cut costs and survive. Bloomin’ Brands revenues [BLMN] have dropped by 10% since 2022, despite big price and cost increases in the restaurant sector.
It would make sense for some people who have to drive some distance to get to a restaurant to reduce discretionary driving, such as to restaurants. Not only would they save the extra $0.50 on gas compared to a month ago, but they’d save the cost of the entire dinner, and eat healthier food at home. But I cannot image people forgoing hot dates just because it’ll cost them $0.50 more in gas than it did a month ago. That’s against human nature.
When you were in the car business did the price of gasoline influence show room traffic or auto sales?
No, but when the price spike lasted long enough, it did shift interest to more fuel efficient vehicles. People started paying attention to MPG ratings… These days I would think that a longer-lasting price spike in gasoline would accelerate sales of hybrids and EVs.
Is dinner at Outback considered a “hot date”?
Must be what I was doin” wrong.
This was about driving to a restaurant v. not driving a restaurant.
It’s important to set low standards at the beginning of a relationship.
I think that the restaurant manager’s point is that ALL of their driving reduces spending cash they have for luxuries like eating out. Not just the cost of driving to the restaurant for that one meal.
Frankly, I can see his point… margins are surprisingly slim in a lot of businesses. I remember during the Financial Crisis that the biggest Jiffy Lube franchisee with a few hundred stores declared bankruptcy because people weren’t changing their oil as frequently. Going 3500 miles instead of 2500 won’t really hurt a modern car but if too many people do it they can REALLY hurt the oil change businesses.
Outbacks prices nowadays are crazy.
I just read an industry insider report
The big chains are making 12-15% a year profit.
I am with Wolf on this one… I used to like Outback 25 years ago but it pretty quickly become overpriced “meh” to me.
Then again, most steakhouse chains are as well. It is hard to get a memorable steak in one of them that you want to come back for again and again. Filet Medallions at Texas Roadhouse is pretty good and reasonable priced… and the Cajun Ribeye at Morton’s is both expensive and excellent. Other than that all I really remember is being disappointed all the time.
Spencer,
People outgrow things. There is almost a middle class growth. When you first start making good money, you take the fam to these places. Cuz it’s fun.
Then you kind of go less and less. You figure out saving cash is best. After you have filled your house up with things.
Maybe then you travel more.
Who knows, these restaurants market to whoever will stop in and spend 100’s.
I was in Asheville, NC just randomly and got tired and hungry, stopped in at a chilis first time in 10 years, was pleasantly surprised. Sure my sandwich was $16, but I was dying at that point after some impromptu middle class manual labor I wasn’t expecting. Kinda zoned out, sandwich and fries did the trick.
I think the comment was more general, not just about one drive for the one outing affecting the affordability for just that meal. If your gas bill increases say $100 per month, and worry about personal finances also increases because other things are more expensive due to fuel price increases, then it is totally reasonable to expect diners will forgo over priced crappy restaurant meals and that this will become an overall trend in the industry.
When customers look for better mpg on a new car selection, it wasn’t about the extra fuel expense on the drive to the car lot that influenced the decision. It was the overall health of the wallet influenced by the inflation produced by rising fuel costs that started the process. That is human nature. :-)
I spend less than $100/MONTH on gas. Frankly I don’t give a s$it about the price of gas. In fact, I’d like t see it go UP to reduce the traffic around here.
Yes $8 gas and a big fat recession would cut down on traffic, and we’d be able to get into our favorite restaurants again, but I’m not sure it’s worth it 🤣
Bond markets don’t see to be reacting much to higher oil prices. Only 4.11% 10 yr.
Now at 4.15% (+5 basis points).
It’s the ole tug o war between a recessionary forecast pulling down rates and an inflationary forecast pushing them up.
I suspect that if a majority of the market drops the recessionary narrative, we could have a quick snap up in rates like at several points in the 1970s.
Stagflation actually involves a run-up in rates that causes a recession, which then causes a run-down in rates, rinse and repeat. It’s not a stable “stagnant” state of affairs like the name implies. So with GDP growth in overheat mode, the bond market is out of synch with the cycle. It will eventually synch up though!
Part of me wonders if recessions are a thing of the past. The government has learned it can print and stimulate its way out of any recession – even a global pandemic. Do we really not expect them to use these tools the next time we experience a couple of down months? If that’s the case, the people hiding in treasuries yielding less than the future rate of inflation will be the suckers yet again.
LOL! When you keep changing the “official” definition or method of measuring something. Sure, you can make all kinds of previously described phenomena “disappear”…
Doesn’t change a damn thing in terms of the laws of physics and Nature. So long as there is 8+ billion souls on this rock, there will be plenty of demand for the energy and commodities that keep a person alive. Outside of that, there are no rules.
Hedge accordingly.
Regarding gas stations increasing sale price of what they have, local gas station quoted as saying current price is predicated on likely price of next delivery. Might be an excuse, but might be a cash flow thing too.
the current price is predicated on whatever they think they can get away with without losing sales to a competitor.
My first real full time job was managing a self service gas station. Interesting times. Gas and cigarettes were hitting $1. Double digit inflation starting to kick in. Iran revolution causing gas rationing and lines. Remember? The good old days.
“… whatever they think they can get away with without losing sales to a competitor.”
At least once a week or more often when gas prices were almost rising daily and I got a call, I would have to canvass 5 or 6 other stations prices. And that is how they set my stations price. Couple of pennies up or down.
The bottom line
Consumers obligate themselves to buy a certain amount of gas when they choose to live a certain distance from work/school/stores and when they buy a vehicle of certain fuel efficiency. At that point in lifestyle design, the purchase of motion lotion is non-discretionary for them. They’re locked in for years. It’s not like we have bike infrastructure or mass transit to fall back upon here in the US. We’re almost all car dependent.
I’m sure some people drive around for fun, fail to combine trips, take the scenic route, etc. but this discretionary or wasteful driving might amount to 5% of the overall mileage. The remainder can’t be cut.
And how much competition is there really among gas stations? I see the same truck refilling the competing gas stations in my area.
The competition between gas stations is in the “stop.”
The margins on the gasoline are pretty small, after all is done.
The convenience store is the profit center: big gulps and pre made junk food especially!
This comes up anytime prices go up. It happens with all products. I don’t understand why people think it wouldn’t happen with gas nor do I understand why people think is “gouging”.
Gas price fluctuations are probably just the only real visibility/interaction the average person has to a commodity market.
The cost of the actual fuel across the country is one thing. But I wish the public would get angrier at the added cost of the road taxes collected across the various States. Especially as one pays so dearly per gallon just to pull out of the fuel station and hit that big chuckhole that’s just getting bigger.
In WA that amount of road tax just keeps increasing. I have no interest in typing in how much ‘gas’ costs here without separating out the road tax. When the cost of the actual fuel does go down the total per gallon is still ridiculous.
Some states really need road taxes.
South Carolina’s roads suck compared to NC.
South Carolina even took out billboards years ago that stated “fix the damn roads!”
That’s why we pay so much in CA…helps maintain our beautifully smooth roads that largely don’t see wet winter freeze/thaw.
Oh wait, none of that is true except the high taxes and fees.
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/gas-taxes-state/
59 cents per gallon according to tax foundation.
It can be very aggravating the lack of critical thinking skills by some of the posters here.The population of Washington state is a little over 8 million. The three largest counties Pierce, King and Snohomish stretch from Olympia to Everett and equals 51% of the total state population.
Then look at the total square miles of the state its network of highways and rural roads. Then for gods sake put on your thinking cap or quite complaining buy a more efficient vehicle or move to a small state like Rhode Island where you do not have to drive so far.
Try BC….. population 60% of yours with an area the size of 4 WA. Fewer roads, though.
This is an effect of us paving a lot more miles of road. Every time a new subdivision goes in, the developer hands over the roads, drainage, and utilities for the local government to maintain forever. It’s the gift of a liability.
Also, every time a person with some rural land persuades their municipality to pave a dirt road, that once cheap to maintain dirt road becomes a future obligation of the government to patch, repaint, and eventually repave. Maybe only 50 cars a day drive down it, but they can drive faster so at least those voters are happy.
Every couple of miles of new roads added becomes a multi-million dollar obligation for someone in the future. And we’re starting to live in that future where all that asphalt and concrete laid 30 years ago is due for a very expensive repaving. The whole system is increasing in maintenance costs.
The only solution is for road taxes to go up even more. So either pay up or enjoy the game of dodge-a-pothole.
Few drivers may own diesel powered cars, but farmers, large and small, run their equipment on diesel. No sooner are the tariffs ruled unconstitutional than Trump finds a way to hit agriculture again.
How come farmers never ever complain about getting huge subsidies for all kinds of things, including getting $12 billion that Trump announced in December?
Farm subsidies have added to farm income per year, adjusted for inflation:
2024: $9.3 billion
2023: $12.6 billion
2022: $16.7 billion
2021: $30.0 billion
2020: $50.0 billion
Thank you. Farming is important and I realize isn’t ‘always’ a fount of money; but anytime it comes up everyone always ignores the state and federal subsidies that farmers get and that fact that every other taxpayer is covering that subsidy or deferral. Locally farmers get land worth $30-50k an acre knocked down to a $300-600 an acre for property taxes alone. That is already a huge benefit and it’s just one tiny piece of it.
And some are crooked.
Some abuse their losses cuz it’s free money.
Farmer welfare
But could be said of any industry, to be fair.
I was just surprised when I learned of this.
I have always understood that the US government allowed our manufacturing base to be transferred to China in return for a guaranteed purchase of American agricultural products.
Wow interesting strategy.
Freezing (hollowing) out the rust belt blue states. Bolstering the Midwest red farmer states.
How is this government financial control of agriculture any different than the collectivist farms of Leninist Russia or Maoist China?
Any farmer trying to make a living by relying on markets alone gets run out of business by government policies, if the government-supported monopolists don’t get to them first.
I remember speaking with some of the big farmers on the CA central coast during the Covid.
One said he was given 20 million in gov. funds. He stated that Covid did not even affect him financially. He said they just changed from restaurant packaging to market packaging without a flinch and lost no sales. Plus 20 million free. Said other big farms around him were in a similar situation.
I live on the Gulf Coast where gas is pretty cheap (due to nearby refineries) and protections against price gouging are pretty robust (due to hurricanes). The cheapest station in my area was at $2.26 per gallon before the bombs started dropping on Iran (this time) and held that price for about three days before it spiked I guess they had a few deliveries of tanker trucks in that time… and I definitely filled all of my family’s cars at the lower price.
BUT… and it is a BIG but… I had a Commanding Officer of one of my Reserve units who owned a few gas stations in the northern part of the state and he told me that the authorities focus on policing the price hikes but the actual collusion between stations (“if it happens” according to him) is when they don’t drop the retail price when the wholesale price drops. A lot of profit gets made in holding onto a penny or two extra for a few days.
Oh… I left out that the price shot up to $2.99 where it still is today.
Gas prices will hit low income earners the most especially those in rural areas that drive inefficient vehicles like big ole trucks and SUVs. As for high income earners, it’s just a blip.
Anyhow, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted a fake photo of the US naval escorting a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s clear market manipulation that feeds into the mania surrounding energy prices. Obviously this administration is afraid of inflation, but BS statements may quell the markets once or twice. Iran isn’t Venezuela and has a real potential to shock the US economy. This whole excursion is just proving to be an unnecessary gamble.
We shouldn’t have anything to do with the middle east’s historical religious disputes at any cost. It definitely doesn’t fit into the America First agenda.
And yet, Trump is turning out to be no different than George W. Bush in so many ways.
In his own way Trump has said mission accomplished.
But Bush quit golfing during the war. Said it was disrespectful.
Trump was golfing last Sunday. Maybe he will stop too.
So much for the myth of a free market when we have another incompetent Trump minion a cabinet Secretary that announced the US navy was protecting commercial ships through the Straight of Hormuz that caused a six sigma change in financial market prices.
Probably insider trading, as usual.
Is there anyone left that investigates the rich as rigorously as they do the poor.
Why are you complaining about oil prices backing off after spiking like this? the entire futures market is imbecilic theatrics. All of these players want to get rich off of consumers. And you complain when these theatrics implode and the price turns the other way and goes back down?
If the Energy Sec made that statement, he should resign effectively yesterday. Do they want US sailors risking their lives to protect Big Oil exporters from the middle East? Another USS Cole? What a bunch of f$ckin morons. We are self sufficient in energy. Get the F$ck out of the middle east. END OF STORY!
Some per gallon comparisons from a site called globalpetrolprices.
USA: 3.38 (one of the lowest of all countries)
Australia: 4.29
Turkey: 5.03
Mexico: 5.48
UK: 6.68
Italy: 7.36
Germany: 8.31
Hong Kong: 14.70
other countries/esp Europeans use taxes for transit , transit infrastructure, roads etc. . A list like that is out of context. Yeah, Americans dont like paying much..they dont get much either.
ahhh, but you get toll roads and toll bridges. We don’t have any in Canada. Fuel taxes pay for them. Occasionally a toll will go in to pay for the initial build on a major project, but then it goes away.
Wolf, how much is gas at the old “gas station from hell” in your hood?
At the gas station from hell here in our neighborhood (where only tourists refill their rental cars before dropping them off, lol), regular was still under $6 as of yesterday. They never even bothered to drop the price or regular below $5 since 2021. they just kept it above $5.
Our “Gas station from hell” reduced their price from $4.89/gallon to $4.39/gallon a few weeks ago. Now it looks like it will be going back up to $4.89/gallon very soon. I never fill up there.
I similarly worked at a gas station back in the mid-90s…BIG place (16 pumps). Similar to an earlier commenter, the gas prices were always set relative to local competition — typically a penny or two higher.
My understanding through speaking with the owners was that the gas sales essentially brought in zero profit, despite selling ~10k gallons a week. At the time, they’d make a few pennies a gallon (this is when prices were around $1.00/gal…so that equates to a few hundred bucks).
The gas pumps rather served as a “draw” for the convenience store, where margins were at least 50% (the car wash was a notable profit center as well).
I have introduced an alternative model for the cause of inflation is the increase in asset prices, the primitive inflation as the root cause. The symmetrical inverse mirror image of the decrease in asset prices as the definition of an economic depression.
My local stations hiked prices by seemingly 40 cents overnight after the futures spike, but haven’t lowered since the crash. Gee, how convenient for them.
Well the commoners wisdom is that asset prices take the stairs up and an elevator down. I’m far to young to know whether it may be true or not.
I think that it is as good a hypothesis available.
I saw a picture on New York Post of a Shell gas station in San Fran just a few days ago…
The gas prices were…. 🥁 🥁 🥁…
$6.10, $6.20 and $6.30 (regular, plus and premium).
With the $Millions rolling in at Wolf Street Conglomerate, it’s just chump change for Wolf.
💰 💵
At the gas station from hell here in our neighborhood (where only tourists refill their rental cars before dropping them off, lol), regular was still under $6 as of yesterday. It never even bothered to drop below $5 since 2021.
But you see, this is a walkable city. So my wife drives our 1 car to her job in Silicon Valley. And I walk everywhere I go if it’s 8 miles or less round-trip; if it’s longer than that, I take public transportation for part of the way. One ride without length-limit on our Muni Subway or Muni Buses = $1.40 with a Senior Clipper Card. No traffic hassles, no parking hassles, no gasoline costs, no speed camera tickets, no red-light camera tickets, nada. And powerwalking up and down the hills as transportation keeps you fit (I do drive to Costco on Saturdays once every few months).
Walking 8 miles round trip? Good lord, you need at the very least a skateboard. I feel accomplished if I walk 2 miles round trip.
I guess I feel accomplishment. My shins feel like they were hit with sledgehammers and my chest hurts a lot afterwards. Is that the sensation of accomplishment?
Trucker Guy,
I feel mentally refreshed, especially if I do that walk after spending three hours dealing with the comments here 🤣
But I have to admit that I have it easy: in San Francisco, the temperature is nearly always perfect for walking. And it’s a beautiful city with incredible views and gorgeous hilly neighborhoods and wide sidewalks often under trees. It’s really rewarding. I never walked as transportation when I was living in Tulsa and Austin. No way in hell. You might get arrested. Some of the streets didn’t even have sidewalks. And walking in the sun at 100°F and 95% humidity is not fun.
Secret tip: pavement walking is hard on you if you wear shoes that are too soft, such as running shoes. I wear my old worn-out hiking shoes, which are not soft, but have a hard sole, and a rugged stiff upper, and they’re super comfortable for city walking. My leather dress shoes are also super comfortable, for the same reasons (thick leather sole and heal with rubber inserts, and leather upper, hard and stiff), just need to get them resoled every now and then. It also helps to break up the stride and go into a jog every now and then, which loosens up your muscles. I do that to catch a green light, for example. Any excuse will do. The problem with pavement is that every step is the same (a repetitive motion that doesn’t exist in nature), and that makes you stiff, and soft shoes make that worse because you sink into them every time your heal hits the ground your pelvis has to move unnaturally to accommodate that. In addition, slow walking also makes you stiff: stride out big and fast, swing your arms, chest out, stomach in, head up, like a proud rooster, and powerwalk, and that posture and striding out takes stress off your frame. It also looks good, lol. And when you do get stiff, short jogs loosen that up. Works great. And then practice, lots of practice. I’m out there almost every day, wherever I go, varying distances, rain or shine. For me it’s transportation, exercise, relaxation, and pleasure rolled into one. And when I walk back from the grocery store, part of it uphill, I typically have about 35 pounds on my back and 15 pounds in each of my hands (65 pounds total). My wife calls this the “camel exercise.” And powering uphill like that does get your heart rate up.
And I do a lot of good thinking while I’m walking.
Costco on a Saturday? That’s crazy.
Exercise is the fountain of youth.
So many of the people who watch TV as a hobby and drive their car for one mile errands don’t get that.
I need a pickup. It is a function of being located in the non coastal west. Where long distances seem close.
Are you hauling anything?
Well, I exited the OILK speculation that I’ve been talking about here since December for a several thousand dollar profit. I even sniped a few call options that some poor soul had left sitting with a GTC order over the weekend when the war started. NEVER leave GTC orders sitting over a weekend!
My profits would be enough to pay for a couple decades of my gasoline consumption, so no, I’m not worried about gas prices (1% of my budget).
So I’m out of oil now. But I’m kinda side-eyeing a TACO trade for when the war ends and oil prices stop rising. The complication is that neither side really has incentive to stop after just a few weeks. Iran’s retaliation only works if many months of high oil prices lead to a recession in the US. Meanwhile Trump’s war objective will not be met if the war ends too early and we go right back to talking about the Epstein files again.
It’s weeks like these when my schadenfreude kicks in for owning a Tesla. I’ve overpaid for electric relative to gas for a year and half due to “drill baby drill” policy. Too bad electric costs keeps going up. Oh well. Now we all pay for more private transportation :)