Condos are subject to huge booms and busts. But these cities are more special than others, so to speak.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
After the price explosion during the pandemic QE era and before, condo prices have been experiencing severe downdrafts in many markets. At the steep end, drops from their peaks are approaching 30% in some cities, such as in Oakland, CA (-29%), and St. Petersburg, FL (-28%) or exceeding 30%, such as Cape Coral, FL (-31%).
But there are some markets that are special: Condo prices either plunged enough in this iteration of the Condo Bust or never rose enough to where current condo prices are below where they’d been at their respective peaks in 2005-2007 during Housing Bubble 1.
Oakland, CA: Prices of mid-tier condos dropped another 0.6% in December from November, seasonally adjusted, and by 13.1% year-over-year, to $464,800, down 29% from their peak in May 2022, and back where they’d first been in late 2005. They’re now 2% below the peak of the wackadoodle prices of Housing Bubble 1 in April 2006.
Chicago, IL: The City of Chicago – not the metropolitan area of Chicago – is one of the cities where Housing Bubble 1, in terms of condos, had been majestic, and the plunge afterwards had been even more majestic, and then there was another price surge, but it petered out, and prices have been wobbling along below the peak of Housing Bubble 1, piercing it only briefly a couple of times.
Prices of mid-tier condos inched up by 0.1% in December and were up by 1.6% year-over-year. At that level, they were still 1% below the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in April 2007.
Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops in “cities” from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. These are not median prices.
Cape Coral, FL, Epic Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust.: Prices of mid-tier condos in December plunged another 1.2% from November, and by 17% year-over-year. Since the peak in July 2022, prices have collapsed by 31%.
But the price explosion from 2020 to mid-2022 had been so majestic that this 31% plunge hasn’t even undone all of that spike.
At just under $200,000, prices of mid-tier condos are now 16% below where they’d been at the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in July 2006.
Fort Myers, FL, another Epic Boom-Bust, Boom-Bust: Prices of mid-tier condos plunged 1.0% in December from November and 17% year-over-year.
Since the peak in July 2022, prices have plunged by 25% and are now back to where they’d first been in mid-2006, and below the Housing Bubble 1 peak in September 2006.
St. Louis, MO: Prices of mid-tier condos fell 0.9% in December and are down 1% year-over-year. The peak of Housing Bubble 2 (September 2023) didn’t quite make it back to the peak of Housing Bubble 1 (May 2007), before prices began to sag again, and in December 2025 were 8% below where it had been at the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in May 2007.
In Silver Spring, MD, which neighbors Washington DC, prices of mid-tier condos in December inched down 0.1% from November and by 1.9% year-over-year, and are now 12% below the peak in August 2006. During the phenomenal Housing Bubble 1, when prices of mid-tier condos exploded by 78%, before collapsing and giving up more than the entire gain by mid-2012.
Baton Rouge, LA: Prices of mid-tier condos fell 0.6% in December, down 1.7% year-over-year, down 4% from the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in September 2008 and back where they’d first been in mid-2007.
Lafayette, LA: Not exactly a bubble market in recent years, just some ups and downs over the two decades since the Housing Bubble 1 spike.
Prices of mid-tier condos in December 2025 were 15% below their peak in January 2008, and were below where they’d been in September 2003, the extent of the ZHVI condo data.
And in case you missed it: Sales of Existing Homes in 2025 Drop to Lowest since 1995, Sellers Massively Yank Listings off the Market, Waiting for Spring
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I got a feeling that tonight’s gonna be a good, good night. – Black Eyed Peas
I’ve never considered buying a condo for investment over an SFH or MF until recently but they are probably the most relatively attractive thing right now. Still needs another 20-30% to look good in absolute terms though.