No CPI data for October, partially made-up CPI data for November, and now 3 months’ of doctored OER data which weighs 26% of overall CPI.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explained today in its CPI report for November that most data for October was missing and some data for November was missing, and that it filled in the gaps in the November data, including by “approximating missing data points” with whatever, including for Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER), the biggest component of CPI, weighing 26% of overall CPI, for 33% of core CPI, and for 44% of core services CPI.
OER had a suspicious outlier-plunge in September, and that suspicious outlier-plunge in September was carried forward to October and November. And the BLS even explained some of it in separate notes, and so it’s not a secret.
This is a screenshot of the CPI summary table. You can see that nearly all the entries for month-to-month changes in October and November are missing. The exceptions are the entries for which BLS relies on “nonsurvey data,” such as gasoline prices and new and used vehicle prices (it purchases the vehicle data from J.D. Power).
What BLS said about the missing data and how it dealt with it.
In its summary report, BLS said: “BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS was unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October. CPI data collection resumed on November 14, 2025.”
In a separate note, BLS briefly explained some of the other shortcomings of this CPI release.
“What was the impact on November data collection? Collection began on Friday, November 14. By authorizing additional collection hours, BLS attempted to collect data for the entire month of November.”
It said “attempted to collect.”
And this is a bad joke: “How were November indexes calculated? November 2025 indexes were calculated by comparing November 2025 prices with October 2025 prices.” But October prices don’t exist in the data… “BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data, so survey data were carried forward to October 2025 from September 2025 in accordance with normal procedures.”
In other words, BLS just made up the October data.
And the September data, which was used as base for the made-up October data, was marred by the total outlier plunge of OER, which accounts for 26% of overall CPI, for 33% of core CPI, and for 44% of core services CPI. And that outlier plunge in September was carried forward to October and November.
Specifically about OER: “BLS calculates rent and owners’ equivalent rent using six-month panel collection [surveys are sent to the same address every six months, instead of every month].
So there was this suspicious outlier drop in September, and rather than bouncing back, as it should have done, it was carried forward to October and November, making for one heck of a funny chart below.
Using the BLS index data for OER as provided today…
Aug: 430.69
Sep: 431.27
Oct:
Nov: 432.44
…this is what the now clearly doctored OER looks like, month-to-month percentage change, annualized. It has been at an annualized rate of 1.6% for the past three months, compared to an average 4.1% in the six months before the doctored September. That’s a sudden 2.4 percentage-point plunge out of nowhere for the third month in a row.
And this doctored component is 26% of overall CPI, for 33% of core CPI, and for 44% of core services CPI, turning the entire CPI data into a bad joke 🤣 or worse 😬
But it’s not a bad joke, it’s much worse.
Lots of things depend on CPI, including the calculation of the “inflation protection” in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), I-series savings bonds the government sells to retail investors, Social Security COLAs, and other inflation adjustments paid to investors and beneficiaries, and they will all be underpaid for inflation.
This data here also impacts broader economic data that is adjusted to inflation, including “real” consumer spending and “real” GDP because the BEA, which produces those overall economic indices, uses some of this CPI data, including OER, for its calculation of the PCE price index and the GDP deflator, among others.
BLS is now causing serious issues with all of them, with investors and beneficiaries getting short-changed on their inflation protection, and with inflation-adjusted economic data getting inflated, which would, of course, suit the administration’s narrative.
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Thank you… very important article on today’s CPI report and your findings match our in-house indicators.
yes thank you Wolf, this is my first stop to come get the real story after numbers were released.
“And this is a bad joke…”
Yes, however what isn’t funny is that this the United States. We are not ready for what all this means. There’s a reason so many of you are looking at passports or are in the process of moving out. Traders/gamblers are more sensitive to what is coming than most “Safe” people.
We’re on borrowed time right now as people still believe the ship will right itself.
I know people wanting to permanently move out of the US. They are discovering that it’s very difficult and/or expensive to move to the “nice countries”. Turns out, the “nice countries” are much stricter on immigration than our mean country. Maybe they should go by boat?
Just curious.
“Many” are “looking” for “moving out” to where…exactly?
That has immigration laws that would accept you?
By now the world at large should not be surprised at the breadth and width of corruption in the Trump Administration. Today’s announcement of the merger between Trump Media and fusion company TAE Technologies should offend the olfactory system of anyone with two nostrils.
Every administration since Bush Jr has been corrupt.
The trump family is making billions upon billions in paper profits well until crypto crashes. Dick Cheney company he lead, Haliburton made money but on a personal level this is uncharted. People freaked out when Hunter sold paintings for 600k, trump JR is getting billions, no bid contracts, foreign government investing etc. $1776 payment to solders was already approved by congress for housing increase, trump rebranded it and claimed the money is coming from tariffs, Pathetic! Sorry for posting too much, I will take break until next week. I am a proud capitalist but i hate Croney capitalism. DJT is straight out of atlas shrug novel the crooked government that gets paid for favors.
“$1776 payment to solders was already approved by congress for housing increase, trump rebranded it”
Kinda reminds me of how the COVID stimulus checks were rebranded.
Corruption in US politics is ridiculous. How do all these senators, representatives, etc. become multi-millionaires…Biden is a perfect example, how did he become wealthy without ever having a real job???
The one thing I like about Trump is that it is very obvious when he lies or does something unethical, and the media is all over him about it. The other guys and gals…not so much, but it has been going on for a long time. Trump is a worse liar but apparently better at making money.
I guess before Bush Jr., administrations just hid the corruption better.
At least it is voluntary if you invest or not in that nonsense.
The “10% to the big guy” of taxpayer money was mandatory.
The way CPI is used to the common folk is, “Hey, beef prices are high, but we believe should buy chicken. Don’t buy coffee and stick to tea. Learn to swap your engine and replace the AC on your home.” The consumer isn’t going to just change overnight.
Yeah, I saw the same table as you with the missing data and immediately remembered your flagging of the weird OER data. Good catch by the way. I also thought to myself, why did Trump have his speech last night? Maybe he saw this data ahead of time? Maybe he made sure the data ended as it did? Lastly, I have NEVER been a fan of manipulated data. Thanks for what you do, I have learned from you.
What are your thoughts on what someone from the administration said this week that shelter deflation will overwhelm any goods inflation which would lower CPI next year?
Shelter makes up a very large portion of the CPI.
All warning bells went off when I heard that. “From the top down” is what I heard between the lines, and what we’re looking at today confirms that and is truly chilling.
TIPS spreads should blow out on this! They need at least an extra 50bps (100bps?) on their breakevens.
You’re Fired? 2028
Wolf, this is perhaps one of the most important pieces of analysis you have ever written. If the bond market starts to lose trust in the integrity of the CPI data, all bets are off.
And tech will go up, so who really cares?
I’m glad that the details/implications of government reported metrics and their methodologies are being closely scrutinized and sometimes met with a fair degree of skepticism.
But.
When the very same degree of scrutiny was advocated for the last 20+ years, the primary response from media types was a very loud/empowered chorus of “those concerns are nothing but baseless conspiracy theories”.
People can’t have it both ways, depending upon who is in power.
The very same media that couldn’t detect Biden’s senility for 5+ years (or any number of other impostures) all of sudden turns into Columbo with a proctologist’s microscope once power changes parties.
Which is fine and all to the good for the country.
But it has to *perpetually apply* (such is the nature of power and the manifold forms of its abuse) and not just when it is convenient for partisan interests.
And I don’t anticipate the data getting more accurate from here, given the administration. They will do what they can to push out data that helps their calls for rate cuts, despite the harm to American citizens.
So the 50 basis point emergency rate cut in September 2024 didn’t cause harm?
Yeah. When I saw the missing data this morning my stomach kind of sank. You can also slowly see the market piecing this together over the morning.
Reminds me of a painting i recently saw in Detroit, of Tonto and the lone ranger. Tonto says “you lied to me” the lone ranger replied “you better get use to it” :)
Did Alan Greenspan write the BLS’s “explanations “?
Thanks for providing some sanity in a crazy world Wolf! The Chinafication of US economic data is proceeding at an alarming rate 💀 Is the damage to long run economic data permanent or will future analysts be able to run forensics and figure out what REAL real GDP/inflation were during this time period? I assume big banks will be able to keep a reasonable pulse on things so my question is moreso if the general public will ever know.
“…and other inflation adjustments paid to investors and beneficiaries, and they will all be underpaid for inflation.”
I follow this reasoning in the short term. But wouldn’t this be corrected in the other direction within a few months? I.e. all those TIPs, I-bonds, and SSA COLA payments get “made whole” when CPI is smacked back up by the fresh, non approximated data getting absorbed by BLS. It seems like there wouldn’t be sustained impairment, just a blip, no?
That’s assuming no more shutdowns interrupting BLS data collection, which may not be a good bet anymore. That part may not be just a blip and leads us down scary path.
This assumes that there is a will in this administration to produce such inflation data… but today shows that it is not willing to do so. OER is now a three-month-long scandal. I gave them the benefit of the doubt in September. But benefit of the doubt doesn’t last three months.
Reminds me of the nonsense health care adjustment a few years ago. They got away with that so why not this?
The “funny” part, Wolf, is the administration will point to that 3 month long (soon to be 6 month or whatever) flatness in the chart as evidence of their success in delivering for the American people.
Not really surprised that Trump is adjusting those numbers to his agenda. Not even surprised if those numbers are stop being released in the near future.
Need to get rid of OEM entirely. It’s always been a B.S. number
“most data for October was missing and some data for November was missing, and that it filled in the gaps in the November data, including by “approximating missing data points” with whatever, including [Candace Owens].” ;-)
Unbelievable but not surprised.
Along those lines but off topic – is anyone getting tired of hearing about how AI is going to take everybody’s jobs and as a result we will no longer need to work; everything will be near free, we will all have a universal high income, and life will be grand? This is coming from some from some prominent tech bros like Elon Musk.
At the risk of sounding alarmist, this sounds a lot like communist propaganda, doesn’t it? Dressed up as a trojan horse with a big AI sticker on it.
From google:
“The concept of a communist utopia is fundamentally tied to the abolition of money…
The core idea is that money, as a medium of exchange and a store of value, would be eliminated. In its place, resources and consumer goods would be freely available to all inhabitants.”
What is the practical difference?
Nothing in this world is free. Nor will it ever be.
While technology can be deflationary, you have the Federal Reserve on the other hand valiantly fighting deflation with every bone in its body.
If AI makes everything free, why do they need so much money?
This AI bubble can’t pop fast enough.
Absolutely ridiculous that something so crucial to the country, like collecting all that data, was interrupted by the shutdown. The way TSA, military, etc. sectors continued to work without pay, the same should have been applied to those services, which also could be considered national security.
Well… the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was fired by President Donald Trump in August 2025, hours after the release of a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Guess it’s like running a casino in Atlantic City, except the chips are USD1 stable coins.
There are active long-term lease contracts, i.e. utility solar on farmland, that have a CPI rider.
We probably won’t get any “REAL” inflation reports till February, and that too maynot be “REAL”! 😱
We probably won’t get a “real” inflation report for at least another 36 months.
I’d say at least until after the midterms.
Off the top of my head math, if we use the 6 month average for OER instead of the outlier data, then November overall CPI is more likely around 3.3% than the reported 2.7%? Correct me if that is wrong.
Seems concerning.
I’m still seeing a number of articles about the increasing cost of home ownership.
This morning’s was about a 26% increase in the water/ sewer rates in a northern Colorado area.
We also know that insurance renewal rates have increased, along with property tax rates.
Obviously this is hard to quantify, with any amount of data. Even more so with made up data.
On the other hand I saw a visualization of the number of states in “recession” (or at high risk). The data was as of October, and I don’t know the methodology (source was stated as Moody’s).
The graphic indicated that only 16 states had clear economic expansion. The data was further explained by each state’s share of GDP, by percentage.
Many alarm bells; for what? We’re unsure.
Serious Question:
Can we trust any of the data?
The data is not all that good, but my gut feels we are in deep dodo.
At least I don’t have to listen to all the crap about tbill and chill! A certain path to poverty.
Approximating such important data, which so happens to favor the administration’s narrative is peak corruption. The United States should not be doing this.
Thank you Wolf for your relentless explanations. You remain the voice of reason for many.
Hi Wolf,
Our BoE today cut rates by another 25 basis points..
Do you believe home prices are falling Wolf? How about rents?
The pitfalls of an increasingly autocratic state. But Trump at least got his headline. Those commentators on Fox News cheer it, proof of the recovery from 2024.
Trump currency, Trump crypto currency, Trump businesses engaging in M&A activity in government funded sectors, The Kenned Center is now the Trump-Kennedy Center. All on the same day recordings of Trump telling Georgia to overturn its democratic election is released.
I know, all very political. But this is not normal times we live in. These statistics completely lack any reliability. The bond market will be very much impacted as it sinks in. Even moreso as he desperately tries to reshape the fed next year, likely angry at rates not falling, ignorant that it is his own actions causing issues.
Maybe if the government wasn’t funding the economy with a deficit of 6-7% a year we wouldn’t have the inflationary pressures we do now (many parties to blame for this one).