Home prices fell YoY in 20 of our 33 metros: Tampa, Austin, Miami, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle… Some still up YoY: Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia…
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Prices of mid-tier single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in the US inched up 0.29% year-over-year in July, the smallest year-over-year growth since June 2023, and the second-smallest since the Housing Bust.
The year-over-year price gains started losing steam in April 2024, after the spurt in 2023 through early 2024:
But prices moved in different directions among the 33 largest and most expensive metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that we track here: 20 had year-over-year declines in July, up from 6 at the end of 2024. And in 19 of our 33 metros, prices were down from their peak in 2022.
The 20 of 33 metros with year-over-year price declines:
As before, metros in Florida and Texas occupied the top 5 spots on the list of the year-over-year drops among our 33 metros.
Year-over-year declines in July:
- Tampa: -5.7%
- Austin: -5.7%
- Miami: -3.7%
- Orlando: -3.6%
- Dallas: -3.6%
- Phoenix: -3.5%
- San Francisco: -3.3%
- San Antonio: -3.3%
- Atlanta: -2.8%
- San Diego: -2.2%
- Denver: -2.2%
- Raleigh: -2.0%
- Houston: -1.8%
- Sacramento: -1.7%
- Honolulu: -1.7%
- Charlotte: -0.9%
- San Jose: -0.6%
- Portland: -0.6%
- Seattle: -0.3%
- Nashville: -0.1%
Prices are declining in many markets because demand has plunged while supply has surged across the US. Here is the US as a whole: Single-Family Home Sales Drop Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016. Condo Sales at Low in the Data, Supply at Housing Bust Level. Below, we’re looking at 33 large and expensive metros.
The 19 metros whose prices are down from their 2022 highs.
Led by these metros with percentage declines from their highs in 2022:
- Austin: -22.8%
- San Francisco: -10.1%
- Phoenix: -9.0%
- San Antonio: -8.0%
- Denver: -7.0%
- Sacramento: -6.7%
- Tampa: -5.3%
- Honolulu: -5.2%
- Dallas: -5.0%
- Portland: -4.7%
- Salt Lake City: -3.7%
- Seattle: -3.3%
- Raleigh: -2.1%
Methodology: All data here is from the “raw” not seasonally adjusted mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released today. The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Zillow’s Database of All Homes also has sales-pairs data.
To qualify for this list, the MSA must be one of the largest by population and must have had a ZHVI of at least $300,000 at some point. Some metros that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because their ZHVI has never reached $300,000, despite the blistering surge of home prices in recent years, such as the metros of New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. Also note in the two columns furthest to the right, the percentage increase “since 2000” and the percentage increase over the 2.5 years from “Jan 2020 to Jun 2022”.
| Austin MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -22.8% | -0.8% | -5.7% | 150% | 73% |
From January 2020 through June 2022, in those 2.5 years, prices exploded by 73%. This price explosion and charts like these document the absurdity that the housing markets had become under the Fed’s reckless monetary policy until 2022, that have been getting unwound since mid-2022.
Here is what home inventories in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro look like. All inventory data below is from Realtor.com.
| San Francisco MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -10.1% | -0.7% | -3.3% | 285% | 33% |
From January 2020 through June 2022, in those 2.5 years, prices exploded by 33%.
The MSA includes San Francisco, much of the East Bay (such as Oakland), much of the North Bay, and goes south on the Peninsula into Silicon Valley through San Mateo County. It does not include the San Jose metro, which covers the southern portion of the Bay Area (see below).
And the home inventories in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont MSA:
| Phoenix MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -9.0% | -0.4% | -3.5% | 213% | 65% |
Prices exploded by 65% from January 2020 through June 2022.
And inventories in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA:
| San Antonio MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -8.0% | -0.3% | -3.3% | 144% | 40% |
And the inventory situation in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro:
| Denver MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -7.0% | -0.4% | -2.6% | 203% | 41% |
And inventories in the Denver-Aurora-Centennial MSA (detailed discussion of inventories in the big metros in the West):
| Sacramento MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -6.7% | -0.5% | -1.7% | 241% | 41% |
And inventory in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom MSA:
| Tampa MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -5.3% | -0.8% | -5.7% | 258% | 60% |
Prices exploded by 60% in the 2.5 years between January 2020 and June 2022.
And inventory in the Tampa-Saint Petersburg-Clearwater MSA (detailed discussion of inventories in the big Florida metros is here):
| Honolulu, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -5.2% | -0.4% | -1.7% | 276% | 33% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -5.0% | -0.6% | -3.6% | 185% | 48% |
Prices exploded by 48% between January 2020 and June 2022.
And here is the inventory situation in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro:
| Portland MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -4.7% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 213% | 37% |
And the inventory situation in the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro:
| Salt Lake City MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -3.7% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 214% | 54% |
Note the 54% price explosion from January 2020 through June 2022.
And inventories in the Salt Lake City-Murray MSA:
| Seattle MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -3.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | 233% | 49% |
In the 2.5 years through June 2022, home prices had exploded by 49%.
And inventories in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro:
| Raleigh MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -2.1% | -0.4% | -2.0% | 154% | 53% |
| Houston MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -2.2% | -0.3% | -1.8% | 148% | 37% |
And the inventory in the Houston MSA:
| Nashville MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -1.4% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 216% | 50% |
And the inventory pileup in the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin metro:
| Las Vegas MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From June 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -1.0% | -0.4% | 0.9% | 180% | 48% |
Inventory in the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas metro (details here):
| Orlando MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From June 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.2% | -0.6% | -3.6% | 227% | 48% |
Between January 2020 and Jun 2022, prices exploded by 48%.
And inventory in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA:
| Miami MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.7% | -3.7% | 317% | 45% |
And inventory in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro:
| Atlanta MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From July 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.3% | -0.3% | -2.8% | 156% | 51% |
Prices had exploded 51% between January 2020 and June 2022.
And inventory in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metro:
| San Jose MSA, Home Prices | ||||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.2% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 327.2% | 39% |
Prices fell sharply over the past few months, turning the index negative year-over-year, and re-pushing it below the May 2022 high.
And inventory in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA:
| San Diego MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.5% | -2.2% | 330% | 48% |
Prices had spiked 48% between January 2020 and June 2022.
Here is the inventory in San Diego County:
| Charlotte MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.2% | -0.9% | 167% | 54% |
Prices had spiked 54% between January 2020 and June 2022.
| Los Angeles MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.3% | 0.3% | 325% | 34% |
And inventory in Los Angeles County:
The metros where prices were still up year-over-year.
| Washington D.C. MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.2% | 1.3% | 217% | 26% |
This vast MSA covers Washington D.C. plus portions of Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland.
And inventory in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro MSA:
| Columbus, OH, MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.0% | 1.4% | 154% | 38% |
And inventory in the Columbus, OH, metro:
| Boston MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| -0.1% | 1.5% | 225% | 30% |
Inventory in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton MSA:
| Minneapolis MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.1% | 1.6% | 159% | 27% |
Inventory in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metro:
| Baltimore MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.1% | 2.0% | 177% | 24% |
| Kansas City MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.2% | 2.1% | 177% | 48% |
| Milwaukee MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.2% | 3.2% | 150.1% | 25% |
| Chicago MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.3% | 3.4% | 117% | 25% |
And here is the inventory in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA:
| Philadelphia MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.3% | 3.4% | 207% | 31% |
And inventory in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington metro:
| New York MSA, Home Prices | |||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | Jan 2020 – Jun 2022 |
| 0.2% | 4.0% | 219% | 22% |
And inventory in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro:
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I am still on strike though as said before need to really long term visit West Virginia,can get a lot of land and a home in the 300 range with at moment property taxes 3 figure,not 4 or 5.
I know economy is tight there but mostly retired so really does not matter unless it goes full mad max ect.
I had a friend there who moved only due to huge salary/job position he could not pass up.
Like me he is a avid hunter/angler/ and just general outdoor nut and says I would love area for those reasons,long road trip in order soon.
@Wolf, when you say “second-smallest since the Housing Bust” do you mean “second-smallest since mid 2012” (when HB2 started)?
The Housing Bust ended in 2012 for the US overall (in some markets sooner). In my book, Housing Bubble 2 didn’t start until a few years later. My series started in about 2017. So that’s kind of the beginning marker here for HB2. But that’s just how I see it.
Just an anecdotal observation: My real estate agent contacted me again recently, first time in many years, – “good time to buy, sell or invest, mortgage rates are coming down”. Asking prices are still sky high, though.
My my freight broker contacted me too, and freight rates have been coming down pretty substantially lately. It looks like business has been slowing down in both sectors, but while businesses had to react fast to changing market conditions, real estate owners can’t or don’t want to face reality.
If these numbers only include existing home prices and not new construction, there is even more pricing pressure in markets like Florida and Texas which have seen the majority of new home construction developments by the national home builders in the recent past.
However in any market there is still a lot of location, location, location that impacts individual home prices
Crying won’t help you, praying won’t do you no good
No, crying won’t help you, praying won’t do you no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move, ooh…
As the housing market bubble loses air doesn’t that affect the American “drunken sailor’s” perception of wealth and therefore affect consumer spending which will eventually lead to a fall in stock prices?