US home prices nearly flat year-over-year, but fell in 21 of our 33 metros: Austin, Tampa, Miami, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Seattle… YoY gains shrink further in Boston, Chicago, New York…
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The year-over-year price gains of mid-tier single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in the US nearly vanished in June: prices rose by just 0.2% compared to June a year ago. But that wasn’t equally spread around.
Of the 33 largest and most expensive metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) that we track here, the number with YoY price drops has expanded every month this year. At the end of 2024, only 6 of the 33 metros had year-over-year price drops. In June, the number rose to 21 (from 18 in May). The three additions: Los Angeles, San Jose, and Nashville. And the YoY price drops worsened in nearly all of them, including in San Diego (from -1.9% in May to -2.4% in June).
In the US overall, the year-over-year price gains have been losing steam for over a year, after the spurt in 2023 and early 2024, whittled down the YoY price gain in June to just 0.2%. But it wasn’t spread equally:
The 21 of 33 metros with year-over-year price declines:
Florida and Texas metros occupy the top 5 spots on the list of the biggest year-over-year declines among our 33 metros. In June, the list grew to 21, from 18 in May and from 6 at the end of 2024.
Year-over-year declines in June:
- Austin: -5.8%
- Tampa: -5.5%
- Miami: -3.8%
- Dallas: -3.7%
- Orlando: -3.7%
- Phoenix: -3.5%
- San Francisco: -3.4%
- San Antonio: -3.3%
- Atlanta: -2.9%
- Denver: -2.7%
- San Diego: -2.4%
- Raleigh: -2.1%
- Sacramento: -1.8%
- Honolulu: -1.7%
- Houston: -1.7%
- Charlotte: -1.0%
- San Jose: -0.9%
- Portland: -0.7%
- Los Angeles: -0.4%
- Seattle: -0.4%
- Nashville: -0.1%
This price action occurred as demand has plunged while supply has surged [Condo Sales Drop to Lowest in the Data, Supply Highest since Housing Bust. Single-Family Home Sales Below 1995, Supply Highest since 2016].
Methodology: All data here is from the “raw” not seasonally adjusted mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released today. The ZHVI is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Zillow’s Database of All Homes also has sales-pairs data.
To qualify for this list, the MSA must be one of the largest by population and must have had a ZHVI of at least $300,000 at some point. Some metros that are large enough don’t qualify for this list because their ZHVI has never reached $300,000, despite the blistering surge of home prices in recent years, such as the metros of New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
The 19 metros whose prices are down from their 2022 highs.
Led by these metros with percentage declines from their highs in 2022:
- Austin: -23.3%
- Phoenix: -10.2%
- San Francisco: -10.2%
- San Antonio: -8.8%
- Denver: -7.6%
- Dallas: -6.9%
- Tampa: -6.7%
- Sacramento: -6.6%
- Honolulu: -5.7%
- Portland: -5.0%
- Seattle: -4.2%
- Salt Lake City: -4.0%
- Raleigh: -3.8%
In the little tables, MoM = month over month; YoY = year-over-year. Also note the percentage increase since 2000 in the right column.
| Austin MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -23.3% | -0.5% | -5.8% | 153% |
Prices are back where they’d been in April 2021. Charts like these document absurd housing markets:
Here is what home inventories in Texas look like:
| Phoenix MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10.2% | -0.2% | -3.5% | 216% |
| San Francisco MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10.2% | -0.8% | -3.4% | 292% |
The MSA includes San Francisco, much of the East Bay (such as Oakland), much of the North Bay, and goes south on the Peninsula into Silicon Valley through San Mateo County. It does not include the San Jose metro, which covers the southern portion of the Bay Area (see below).
And the inventories in the San Francisco metro:
| San Antonio MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -8.8% | 0.1% | -3.3% | 147% |
| Denver MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -7.6% | -0.2% | -2.7% | 211% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -6.9% | -0.2% | -3.7% | 190% |
| Tampa MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -6.7% | -0.4% | -5.7% | 260% |
And inventories in Tampa:
| Sacramento MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -6.6% | -0.2% | -1.8% | 245% |
| Honolulu, Home Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -5.7% | -0.4% | -1.7% | 277% |
| Portland MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -5.0% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 220% |
| Salt Lake City MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 220% |
| Seattle MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -4.2% | -0.1% | -0.4% | 242% |
| Raleigh MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.8% | 0.0% | -2.1% | 157% |
| Houston MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -3.0% | 0.0% | -1.7% | 151% |
| Nashville MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -2.3% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 220% |
| Las Vegas MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From June 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -2.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 180% |
| Orlando MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From June 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -1.5% | -0.4% | -3.7% | 229% |
And inventory in the Orlando MSA:
| San Jose MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -0.9% | -1.1% | -0.9% | 343.2% |
Prices fell sharply over the past two months, turning the index negative year-over-year, and re-pushing it below the May 2022 high.
And inventory in the San Jose MSA:
| Atlanta MSA, Home Prices | |||
| From July 2022 | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -0.8% | 0.1% | -2.9% | 160% |
The other 4 metros with YoY price declines:
| Miami MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -0.5% | -3.8% | 320% |
| San Diego MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -0.4% | -2.4% | 333% |
| Charlotte MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.2% | -1.0% | 171% |
The index is now just 0.6% above where it had been in mid-2022:
| Los Angeles MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -0.1% | -0.4% | 332% |
The metros where prices were still up year-over-year.
| Washington D.C. MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.0% | 1.1% | 220% |
This vast MSA covers Washington D.C. plus portions of Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland.
And inventory in the Washington D.C. MSA:
| Boston MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.6% | 1.4% | 233% |
And inventory in the Boston metro:
| Columbus MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.6% | 1.4% | 159% |
| Minneapolis MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.9% | 1.5% | 163% |
| Baltimore MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.5% | 1.9% | 180% |
| Kansas City MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.8% | 2.0% | 184% |
| Milwaukee MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 1.1% | 3.1% | 154.2% |
| Chicago MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 1.0% | 3.2% | 119% |
And here is the inventory in the Chicago metro:
| Philadelphia MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.8% | 3.3% | 210% |
| New York MSA, Home Prices | ||
| MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| 0.7% | 4.1% | 219% |
And inventory in the New York MSA:
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The negative changes from peak 2022 prices are pretty telling, but I’m curious why there’s no mention of percent differences for the ones still above the 2022 peak. It’s gotta be declining by the month and would be interesting to see.
I’m collecting the declines from “2024 peak.” But as you can see in the charts, those are recent, sometimes less than a year, sometimes a little more than a year, and they need to mature a little, so to speak.
The Los Angeles area appears to be stuck in limo at record high prices.
I ❤️ love the expression “Los Angeles area appears to be stuck in a limo at record high prices” and I may purloin it from you in the future.
Wolf, thanks for the great information and charts. We’ll see how far down these markets go.
Ditto Wolf. This is my favorite economics topic.
MW” Fed’s Williams says tariffs are pushing up inflation, and he expects even higher prices in coming months
We may well get more inflation in the coming months, but someone should email him my analysis:
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/15/feds-nightmare-cpi-inflation-in-services-reheats-not-tariffed-while-inflation-in-durable-goods-apparel-footwear-tariffed-remains-cool/
Thank you for putting this together and sharing. The graphs really put the sheer magnitude of this into perspective.
This article really hits home. I live in Orlando and in February a neighbor of mine listed their home for $1.05M which aligned with all of the online estimates. That is double what they paid for it in 2014. Four months later they closed for $825k. The air is leaving the bubble.
“We’re going to need a lower rate”
Sorta related to the stacks of housing charts that look like exploding volcanos, that spewed out lava — now the shows over.
Where in the hell did all that speculative cash come from, to fuel that friggn cycle??
We kinda know the GFC Bubble had ninja-related tentacles, with a tsunami of unqualified buyers and over leveraged stupidity — but, this pandemic bubble has been an unprecedented, unthinkable, unknowable nuclear explosion of wealth transfer/distribution (disruption) — but, like how — where did this magic money come from — how was it pulled forward to such a mutated level??? Is this the aggregate culmination of baby boomer retirements?? This is really crazy!
It wasn’t stimulus, it wasn’t savings— it wasn’t the deficit — if it was loans, what was the collateral — and how does this really play out? I don’t think this ends well (as usual).
From a friend:
In 2020, the total value of owner-occupied real estate in the U.S. was approximately $31.6 trillion. This figure grew significantly to reach about $47.9 trillion in early 2025