GM’s Q1 sales soar, with EV sales +94%, Hyundai-Kia and Honda sales soar, Toyota’s nearly flat, Ford’s dip, Stellantis still in death spiral.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Sales of new vehicles jumped by 13.3% year-over-year in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.8 million, the highest March sales since 2021, and finally back in the range before the pandemic. This should portend well for retail sales and consumer spending in March.
March marked the sixth month in a row of year-over-year growth:
- March: +13.3%
- February: +2.2%
- January: +3.1%
- December: +6.0%
- November: +7.8%
- October: +5.0%.
In Q1, not seasonally adjusted, new vehicle sales rose by 4.8% year-over-year, to 3.91 million vehicles, the best Q1 since 2019, following the 4.5% increase in Q4.
March had 26 “selling days,” one fewer than March 2024. Seasonal adjustments account for the difference in selling days. Not seasonally adjusted and not annual rate, new vehicle sales jumped by 10.7% in March year-over-year to 1.585 million vehicles, the best March since 2021.
The first quarter is always low in new vehicle sales with January and February being the worst months of the year, and March being the beginning of the spring selling season (“tax refund season”). So Q1 2025 was almost back at prepandemic levels, but not quite yet.
After the massive price increases in 2021-2022, new vehicle sales have been handicapped by affordability issues and consumer frustration with high prices. With inventories then ballooning, automakers threw price cuts and incentives at consumers to roll back those price increases and stimulate sales.
March might have been helped by a stronger-than-a-year-ago tax-refunds flow and possible frontrunning by consumers of any price increases they fear tariffs might cause.
Ironically, this strong demand is causing automakers to roll back their incentives and price cuts that low demand and high inventories had brought about.
Average incentives (price cuts from MSRP) per vehicle sold rose year-over-year to $3,059, or 6.1% of MSRP (in March 2024, incentive spending amounted to 5.8% of MSRP), according to J.D. Power estimates.
Incentive spending is how the legacy automakers adjust prices. The MSRP is set for the entire model year, and incentive spending brings it down low enough to move the inventory. High and growing inventories cause automakers to increase incentive spending.
But this strong demand caused automakers to trim back their incentive spending a tad in March from where it was in February.
Q1 sales growth was not equally spread.
Among the big automakers, some booked strong year-over-year sales gains in Q1 (GM for example), while others experienced sales declines (Ford, for example), and sales at Stellantis continued to plunge.
#1 General Motors, Q1 sales: +16.7% year-over-year, all brands combined, to 693,363 vehicles.
EV Sales soared by 94% to 31,887 vehicles. At Chevrolet, EV sales, led by the Equinox EV and the Blazer EV, soared 119%.
EVs do not include hybrids (they’re ICE vehicles). GM has come out with a new lineup of EV models, including pickup trucks. Some models became available in 2023 and 2024, others are becoming available in 2025. The old Bolt and Bolt EUV were discontinued at the end of 2023.
#2 Toyota, Q1 sales: +0.9% year-over-year, to 570,269 vehicles, Toyota and Lexus brands combined.
Toyota has made a U-Turn on EVs, after wasting years pooh-poohing them, and is now spending huge amounts of money in a rush to develop them. It has only one EV on the market, the bZ4X which it jointly developed with Subaru, and whose sales soared by 195% year-over-year, to 5,610 units, already outselling several models, including nearly all Lexus models (except for the Lexus ES).
#3 Ford, Q1 sales: -1.3% year-over-year, to 501,291 vehicles, Ford and Lincoln brands combined.
EV sales rose by 11.5% to 20,223 vehicles: Mustang Mach-E sales of 11,607 (+21.0%), F-150 Lightning of 7,187 (-7.2%), plus some electric van sales.
#4 Hyundai-Kia Q1 sales: +10.4% year-over-year, to 402,404 vehicles, a record first quarter, with both Hyundai and Kia reporting 10%-plus sales gains. Both started manufacturing their EVs in the US.
#5 Honda Q1 sales: +15.8% year-over-year, to 351,577 vehicles, Honda and Accura brands combined.
Honda still doesn’t make EVs, but it working on them. It is selling one EV, the Prologue, which it buys from Chevrolet (Blazer EV), though the body panels are a little different from the Blazer EV.
#6 Stellantis Q1 sales: -12% year-over-year, all brands combined, to 293,225. The death spiral continues.
- Ram pickup truck sales: -2% to 93,368
- Chrysler sales: +1% from collapsed levels, to just 35,069.
- Jeep sales: -10% to 140,583
- Dodge sales: -49% to 21,731.
#7 Nissan Q1 sales: +5.7% year-over-year, to 267,085 vehicles, Nissan and Infiniti combined.
Tesla doesn’t disclose US sales. It only discloses global sales. For Q1, Tesla’s global sales plunged by 13% year-over-year, lowest since Q2 2022, as Elon Musk is crushing one of the most successful consumer brands.
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Everybody front running those Tariffs
Tax refunds coming in very strongly, well ahead of last year, that’s always a huge benefit for the auto industry because those tax refunds make great down-payments. So we know that for sure. Frontrunning tariffs might also be a factor. I discussed both in the article.
That’s what we did. The youngest bought a Kia Niro hybrid in Feb to get ahead of tariffs, she absolutely loves it.
I would be surprised if most of the citizen car purchasers even considered the effects of tariffs, let alone that it may be an issue going forward during the prior period of Wolf’s data.
I think that nowhere is the magic of finance more evident than the US new car market. A three year loan is almost the same as a six year loan because the monthly payment is the same.
It isn’t the cost of labor in the US who haven’t had an increase in real wages and benefits since the early 1970’s, who are the roadblock to manufacturing in the US.
It is …..
“Stellantis still in death spiral“
I thought of Wolf when I saw a headline about “Stallantis idles plants in Canada and Mexico due to tariffs,” thinking “not because they have ruined the business?”
A few days ago I drove by a Jeep dealership in Newark Delaware and the new Jeeps were lined up with large brightly colored signs on each that said $15,000 off, even $18,000 off.
Many would suggest that the tariffs would be the death of Dodge/Jeep/Chrysler and they may be the last nail in the coffin but this has been a long, slow demise. Take a look at consumer reports for the most unreliable vehicles and then look at “would you buy this vehicle again” charts and you won’t find these vehicles doing very well. Mexico plants have paused further work and at least one Canadian plant plus some US layoffs. I’m guessing Stellantis is now begging for money from Mexico, Canada and the US states to keep these jobs and there’s a good chance they will get massive corporate welfare to keep building poor quality vehicles. There is a time to pull the cord on life support though
My friend bought a Nissan pick-up top of line for $11 k off out the door $34.5 said dealer was desperate to sell vechiles in Omaha
Given the breathtaking sticker prices for vehicles in the US 18 grand doesn’t quite seem that significant of a discount.
The historically normal PE ratio is closer to 15 than 20.
The over pricing of assets in my view is the driver of inflation. And recession is the only anti-dote. Where asking prices condescend to meet the low ball bidding prices proffered by the little people.
They’re shifting production of vehicles for sale in the US to the US, they’re all trying to do that, where possible, which is what tariffs are SUPPOSED to accomplish.
Stellantis has the additional problem that their sales have collapsed starting two years ago, and that has zero to do with tariffs, no matter what idiotic bullshit Stellantis craps into the media.
People still buy Jeep Wrangler “Rubicon” for $100,000 (or “Sahara” for $75K). It is bolt bucket similar to Willys from WWII. This correction has long way to go.
Honestly, I have too agree. Too expensive. Especially considering the external costs of ownership.
Stellantis will not survive to see 2026.
Howdy Youngins. In the olden days, Auto Manufacturers always had vehicle incentives till ZIRPing, QEing USA. New vehicle incentives are here to stay again. Ford just announced a new one too.
Sorry Lone Wolf. Some of US sober and drunk sailors will not stop spending till death……
There is nothing wrong with spending what comes in with a trust in the future. It may ultimately be the most rational spending behavior.
Drunken sailors are notorious for being the risk takers. The tragic stories of the sacrificial lambs that crashed and burned are what we all secretly admire. Perhaps.
Due to low sales over the past few years, and folks still driving, pressure mounts for new car sales as used ones fall out of service. Might this be the driver? Work at home cut a lot of mileage, easi g the pressure to buy new, but this effect has reversed.
In the olden times, during the classic rock and roll era, buying a new car was a vanity expression for which one paid for with an immediate devaluation of up to 25 pct or so. Depending on whether it was a beast at birth or a beauty.
In either case, it wasn’t a preowned vehicle, it was used.
Perhaps this good news for Japanese auto makers will encourage them to manufacture their cars here in the US to escape the “somewhat” reciprocal tariffs?
That is already happening on a massive scale. Honda manufactures in the US most of the vehicles it sells in the US. Toyota as well. Hyundai-Kia also has plants in the US, and they just opened a new plant in Georgia this year where they’re manufacturing EVs, production is ramping up. They’re all shifting more and more production to the US, which is the purpose of tariffs.
But aren’t 80% of vehicle parts made outside the US? Even if the factory is here assembling the vehicle, the price will still go up considerably. Seems like it is going to take 5-10 years to shift the entire supply chain over to the US, no?
80% is exaggerated. In 2016, vehicles assembled in the U.S. had approximately 59% of their parts sourced from the U.S. and Canada, while those assembled in Mexico had about 27% U.S./Canadian content.
The most fully manufactured in the US automobiles, based on the 2024 Cars.com American-Made Index, are dominated by Tesla models. The Tesla Model Y, assembled in Fremont, California, and Austin, Texas, tops the list, followed by other Tesla vehicles like the Model 3. These cars have high U.S. parts content, often around 75-87%, and are assembled domestically. Honda and Volkswagen also rank high with models like the Honda Passport and VW ID.4, but no vehicle is 100% U.S.-made due to global supply chains.
True it will take a while to fully move over the the supply chain to the U.S., however some manufacturers have a shorter timeframe.
You can post anything to Grok, ChatGPT, or Gemini in this format.. Is this True? ” ” Summarize your results in no more than 100 words.
Nemi5150
what is this BS and your BS figures????
So don’t even manufacture the vehicles in the Us because some parts are made in China or Mexico? Don’t even try because it might take a while??? Effing automakers need to start buying US-made parts — DUHH that the purpose of tariffs — or watch their big fat profit margins get taxed.
I’m getting so tired of this hackneyed anti-tariff BS here.
No WR, it was just an honest question. I am not for or against tariffs. I honestly don’t know how this is going to sort out and I am just enjoying history in the making. I doubt anyone really knows what is going to happen. I am sure it will be a mix of good and bad.
If you are going to buy a car, or any big ticket item, with foreign parts or manufacture, it might be smart to do it now, like today or tomorrow, or anytime before the tariffs kick in. So I expect an immediate upsurge in the purchase of these kinds of items. Very probably, people did this last month, anticipating the tariffs.
Apparently, gold, copper, pharma, semiconductors, and lumber are exempt from tariffs. For now, anyway. It is an interesting group of exemptions.
My concern is overall inflation, and how much the producers and sellers are willing to eat to keep prices down.
Many people will be broke a year from now. You’ll be able to get that almost new car for half price. In California one can get 2-year old Toyota Mirai for 70-80% off MSRP (since hydrogen went up in price).
The tariffs are slowing supply chains across the world, supplying goods produced externally too be sold in the US without at least paying their fair share for maintaining the infrastructure.
The bull in the china shop is not necessarily wrong. The status quo where access to the American consumer market is free of charge.
The burden of paying for the privilege of being the reserve currency has reached a limit. Some adult countries are still on the teat, and need to be weened.
I read a fascinating article which details the formula which led to the precise amounts of tariffs for each country. The formula assumes that some but not all of the increases will be passed on to the consumer. As a result of these higher prices, fewer goods from these countries will be purchased thereby eliminating the trade deficit with each of them. That’s the theory!
That formula came from ChatGPT.
The basis is that the US trade deficit with most of the countries in the world is equal to the imposed tariff. It is a logical expression of the historically illogical situations that have been normalized for the sake of sanity.
Specifically, Ivy League educated individuals decided several decades ago that the people living in grass huts in China were no threat to American family income posed by manufacturing everything Walmart sells.
And now that the damage has been done by the loss of American family income to the foreign labor monopoly. The poorer American worker moans about the loss of the low cost goods that put him out of work.
DM: Apple’s stock is leading the ‘Magnificent Seven’ toward a $1 trillion wipeout
It’s gonna have to pay taxes on its profits that it has been channeling overseas. That’s what tariffs will do.
… today. Toward $1 Trillion wipeout today. Mag 7 already lost north of $4 Trillion.
1:02 PM 4/3/2025
Dow 40,545.93 -1,679.39 -3.98%
S&P 500 5,396.61 -274.36 -4.84%
Nasdaq 16,550.61 -1,050.44 -5.97%
andy
Mar 17, 2025 at 6:38 pm
Sell your second car, buy triple-short ETF. Thank me later.
Face-ripping rally is coming up.
andy-
I totally agree that this stock market crash will have a face-ripping rally. Since the first dead cat bounce totally bamboozled the market pundits, the big rally will be starting from a much lower level. At the top I was 50% treasury bills and 50% SQQQ. My target for SQQQ is 200. This is not for amateurs, to excel, you have to trade it, which is really difficult: do the opposite of what your gut is telling you. To maximize returns, buy when everyone is terrified and sell when everyone is greedy. Or just hold SQQQ until it hits 200 for a long term gain. I suspect it will go much higher.
Why this strategy?
There is no place to put cash now except T-Bills in this everything bubble. You are investing to prepare for the bottom of this crash. Unbelievable bargains will be widespread in your area of expertise. The majority of current stock market financially content middle class Americans and debt laden AIRBNB tycoons, will be applying to McDonald’s for a job. At the bottom, a Craigslist ad for a handyman will have over 100 replies.
At the bottom, no one will have cash except you, selling SQQQ at 200. The world will be your oyster.
Afterward, we will will have a generation of Americans who avoid debt and invest conservatively. Trump may have committed sedition on January 6, but who else is going to save us from ourselves? The next administration will eliminate the tariffs, but we will be in better shape. If Trump can pull off getting Greenland or convince Canada to be the 51st state, he will be the greatest president so far and if he does both, add him to Mount Rushmore. Do I think either will happen. NO
Study Jeremy Grantham, the world’s best super bubble historian.
Pure theater. The stock balloon contracting by an insignificant amount when compared to the reasonable valuation of the S&P index at 3600 where it was at two years ago.
The Trump tax cuts for the rich, the only thing he accomplished, are scheduled too expire. Trump’s handlers are focused on the tax cut legislation they are engineering as we speak to not only make his budget busting first tax tucks, but to actually increase the tax cuts for the billionaire class.
He’s currently is playing the role of the heel. I think that they may be in a hurry to induce the incipient recession and prevent the onset of the expected recession just before the mid term elections which I would be amazed if the Republicans lose, massively. Maybe.
Wolf, why are car sales not going past 17 to 18 million? This was the high of 1980. Since then population has increased by more than 100 million. Yet same range. This is beyond the reasoning that quality cars and people holding to longer period. Any other view? Thanks
Prices are too high:
The Wolf-endorsed tariffs are in. Do we implode from here or we finally liberated?
Tariffs are bad for stocks and great for the economy, I told you on Feb 3:
Headline: “What Trump’s Tariffs Did Last Time (2018-2019): No Impact on Inflation, Doubled Receipts from Customs Duties, and Hit Stocks”
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/03/what-trumps-tariffs-did-last-time-2018-2019-had-no-impact-on-inflation-doubled-receipts-from-customs-duties-and-hit-stocks/
But I was pooh-poohed by you anti-tariff-BS trolls.
I’ve been saying T-bill and Chill for quite a while, but I was pooh-poohed.
It’s time to stop letting the addiction to inflated stock prices dictate US economy policies.
And markets are now figuring it out.
“It’s TUNE to stop letting the addiction to inflated stock prices…”. Ok, but that music should probably be from von Sternberg’s Der blaue Engel which went into production just days after the Crash of ‘29. The rush back to federal interest therefore calls to mind Marlene Dietrich’s big number in the film:
Falling in love again,
Never wanted to,
What am I to do,
I can’t help it.
[We’ll leave out Wolf’s Germanic roots though.] 😂😂
I reject that I’m an anti-tariff troll. Just a troll
But seriously, we will see how this shakes out I’m 60/40 fixed income to stocks
🤣❤️
DDs relative to TDs have grown by 50%. That precludes an economic recession.
Going back to even October and November of 2024 you have an average of 150 to 200 comments on your posts. Look at how many comments you’re getting recently. hahahah! Nothing. You’re losing people and you should. It’s because people are sick of your pro-Trump nonsense. Your no tolerance for any opposing views is disgusting. You’re a sick man Wolf, goodbye…
I cleaned house. I blocked lots of people. I’m tired of allowing people to abuse my site to spread BS, and I’m tired of having to mess with this endless onslaught of BS.
The article I just published on the market and tariffs has 1 comment, mine, because the BS-overload fuse was triggered, which shut down comments altogether. Check it out:
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/03/103178/
LOL, didn’t you show your “true colors” just yesterday as someone “left leaning.” Today pro-Trump. It’s pretty funny to see how delusional people are from the outside, but I can see how the BS-overload fuse gets triggered.
It’s also funny how someone defines a reduction in comments as a negative, never stopping to think it may enhance the overall quality of the content. Or the fact commenters are a very small subsection of readers as Debt-Free Bubba suggests.
Rojo Grande….IF you are referencing “DEBT FREE BUBA” you are in serious trouble!! imho
James,
No, I’m not in any trouble. I was referring to Debt-Free-Bubba’s comment which at the time was directly below mine, but is now a little further down. I was going to make the point that I’m sure the vast majority of readers seldom, if ever, comment. Since he already made that point I thought it was appropriate to credit him. Did you fail to comprehend why I was referencing him?
BTW, I just checked, there are 192 comments on the Tesla article yesterday somehow for some reason. I must have done a lousy job blocking.
These posts mean you are directly over target taking flack!
🎇🎇🎇🎇 feels like it to me for sure, LOL.
Holy damn, i imagine it takes a lot to blow that fuse. Wish I had the chance to catch the show before the plug was pulled!
Howdy 1stD. I would bet the Lone Wolf s total page views did not go down.
I read most all articles without commenting. Bet there are many more like me……
Nah, bro. I usually do not comment, unless I can add something.
What I can add is that you must have been hammered so badly to be projecting this hard. This site is not about personalities, but rather making f*cking money or in your case, how I lost my kid’s college money.
I do not know Wolf. I have never meet him and probably never will.
But, I send him donations when he asks on his free, non-pay walled site.
I value his opinion and analysis and good and bad comments, even yours.
Chill out and come back in a while when the smoke clears a bit.
You political people make everything too political
Wolf never seemed pro-Trump to me. If pressed, I would say he was more of a San Francisco liberal. Frankly, I don’t much care what he is politically, as long as his articles are informative and make sense.
Sorry he cut off comments on his next article. I sometimes enjoy the more inane and goofy comments because they make me laugh. The angry ones are fun too, but I also realize that Wolf is not running a comments comedy slte, although nearly all comments on any web site are amusing. In the end, it’s his site, he can do what he wants.
I’m with you. Raw but honest comments.
Wolf presents the data meticulously so each of the readers can formulate their own opinion on the data. Argument is foolish in the sense of who wants to listen to an opinion without a shred of evidence.
Maybe Wolf Richter will give you your money back.
Oh, wait a minute, the web site is free with no fire wall.
You will never find a more unbiased, truthful, patient, tolerant, tutoring website for you GDF idiots. Good luck.
You cannot recognize the difference between Pro-Truth and Pro-Trump because of your bias. It took me a while to understand that Wolf Richter has no agenda other than the truth. At times, my bias made me think Wolf Richter was bias. But, just like Joe Friday on Dragnet, he is “nothing but the facts, ma’am”.
Similar or opposing politics, or somewhere in between, who cares? As long as he continues to produce high quality analysis based on irrefutable data, he’ll be fine without ya. There are times I squint when I read something, detecting a smidge of bias, or wondering why something was framed one way instead of another. But the underlying data can’t lie, and it’s on you to filter out anything beyond that. Curious where else you plan to go for content of this quality and at least mostly neutrality? GL with that.
Wolf, we had a bang out March. The surge at the end of the month definitely helped. We sold about 40 cars the last weekend.
Wolf, would love to see some analysis about which segments/industries have the largest and smallest profit margin‘s (maybe in a separate article someday?).
Apple and some of the tech companies should be able to pay higher tariff fees pretty easily.
Other companies/industries are barely profitable as it is.
Would be very interested in seeing some kind of impact analysis for the companies outside of the ones with a profit margins.
Agree that the current deficit path we’re on is unsustainable, but struggling to wrap my arms around how this doesn’t put a significant number of companies/employees on the chopping block.
Regards,
JDB
In my last post, I got a lot of heat from some of the commentators for saying that I was out of the stock market and was satisfied with getting a guaranteed return of 4% to 5% in CDs and Treasuries. I suggested Sports betting as a better alternative than the stock market (casino) for those who want to gamble.
I now hear crickets from these same people after the markets crashed home and overseas.
Take a look at Agencies – you can pick up 6%+ on AAA rated paper. Fed Farm Credit Bank and Fed Home Loan Bank both do not give call protection. Without call protection they trade at par (100) I buy the 30-year paper. If its called… so what. Buy another. Need the cash – sell – it trades at 100.
Howdy Swamp Would like to welcome you to squirrels anonymous. You are in good company with Buffett as our head master currently.
FDIC me…….
Crashed? Lol
According to my broker, it’s a buying opportunity. No one wants to buy while the stocks are on sale. Which requires a personal estimate of the value of the stock market.
For an old guy like me without the luxury of being young with the waves of time at my back turning mistakes into pure genius.
It’s complicated.
“ Honda still doesn’t make EVs, but it working on them.”
What about the Acura ZDX? I saw one of these on dealership floors 3-4 months ago and it looked like they were heavily discounting. Still a full EV nonetheless.
That ZDX is the same as the Honda Prologue, which is made by GM, as I said in the article.
GM having such a good quarter, I think they’ve got some nicely priced vehicles in the compact suv segment. I’m not sure of the quality, they do import a lot of components as well. Seems like semiconductors were spared, probably at the request of the automakers. Will be interesting to watch that segment going forward.
Wow — I see the comments on Wolf’s article about tariffs are closed. I’m guessing not very many Americans are familiar with their own history in this regard. More details available in Michael Hudson’s “America’s Protectionist Takeoff, 1815-1914: The Neglected American School of Political Economy”
Feels like the revenue generated from tariffs could be used to renew the expiring tax cuts at the end of this year. If they don’t pass those cuts that will take some money away from sailors.