Wolf Richter with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money.
Recorded on March 20.
Here is one of my articles, published on March 14, that discusses in detail what I talked about in the interview… “We’re focused on the real economy,” Bessent said. “Ouch,” stocks said. Where did the Trump put go? Read: Will Economic Detox Lead to a Recession? Maybe Not. But a Long Deep Stock Market Rout Will (See Dotcom Bust)
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I think it will. The stock market is a good barometer of people’s outlook for the future. If the market crashes people feel poorer and will cut back on their spending. It is also a good predictor of future economic activity. It won’t be long before the term “Trump Crash” becomes a common phrase in the MSM even though most of the inflation was due to the previous regeime’s mishandling of the economy, and the complete incompetence of the Federal Reserve, especially it’s leader JP. I have no skin in this game, as I am completely out of the stock market. All my funds are in Treasuries and CD’s and Tax exempt bonds. I couldn’t care less what happens to the stock market. It’s nothing but a casino worse than playing blackjack in Las Vegas. If you want to gamble, bet on sports. Its a lot more fun.
You sound like a genus! The best investors are the ones that don’t inject politics into their investing.l decisions.
Personally, I think that economics equals politics.
Well there is nothing like the realization that a 50 pct decline in the stock market value is not unheard of. I personally have been through four of them.
If China, the largest economy in the world by some accounts, is battling to escape deflation, if you can believe it, which I do. A military economy like China has an extremely high fixed cost and the margins are thin. When business drops off the economy contracts.
The USA could be the prettiest girl at the dance but not at these prices. I think the Fed should hold the FFR at the current levels.
It’s refreshing to have the Fed back from their rampage too save the bankers at the behest of the taxpayersl
I agree with your first sentence 100%.
It has always been about how the pie (assets) are divvied up……economics is a side show for those who want to “measure” the division.
Of course like you said, “equals” means one can look at it either way……currently the measurers seem to rule…..but that line of thought goes into the weeds pretty fast……ignore……
You’re overlooking the size of the pie — and the fact that it’s growing. That’s what an economy is supposed to do: grow the effing pie.
I don’t follow the logic – “Trump crash” won’t be appropriate because inflation happened during Biden’s time? But by that logic wouldn’t that inflation be Trump’s fault from his first term? Didn’t he run a large deficits and sign the first covid relief package, and literally insist on signing checks that got sent out to citizens? But really the notion that one party caused inflation is absolute horsecrap. Who is the constituency for running up the deficit? Both parties. Who threw covid money out the door like it was Monopoly money? Both parties. Who encouraged the Federal reserve to keep rates ridiculously low? Both parties. Who endorsed QE? Both parties. I’m pretty sure everyone owns it.
they were both responsible, but the worst of it came after the patently unnecessary $2 trillion stimulus bill that was passed in march of 2021.
Yes after the emergency lockdowns ended, Biden continued the massive gov’t stimulus ’21-’24. Running 7% of GDP fiscal deficits during a NON-recessionary economy. Never done before. And the Fed kept rates at zero and buying mortgage backed securities up until mid 2022, despite a roaring hot real estate market. Fanning the flames of inflation. Trump inherited Biden’s fiscal budget. Most of 2025 will still be Biden’s budget. 2026 will maybe finally be Trumps.
It’s going to be funny when the deficit explodes under Trump and these people will justify the high spending because they can’t admit they got conned by a people so stupid they invited an Atlantic editor to their signal chat.
Neither was responsible….I heard many times from many important people that Biden was not all there because of his senility and Trump because of abnormal mental issues.
Perhaps Americans are responsible because they are “exceptional”, but in a “not all there” way?
Have to agree with Digger. Both parties are constantly willing to overspend. The pandemic was the finale spending that will cause a big, long, deep problem for us.
Add the fact that we have been in undeclared war for decades. The discovery of the real USAID, which was not sending food to poor people. It was actually sending money for CIA operations to destabilize countries like: Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, and Iran. We are going broke from this behavior and most people don’t even know it. We are too busy being entertained to pay attention to what our government is doing/wasting money on.
Professor Plumb did it in the library with the lead pipe, which started it all. Other than what was caused by that, everyone at CIA Langley is drugged and playing Grand Theft Auto all day, as a big deep state diversion, while adrenochrome fueled Hollywood is running everything else through the movies. They even have a division that remakes old movies to fit new agendas as they are being decided upon on the dark deep fractal web who’s servers are moved at least twice a day, and then all those involved in the move are sent to the cartel soup man for final disposition.
Some day I’ll look into what all those thousands of expensive “Hi-tec Ventilators” Trump got us such a great deal on, (he personally consulted on their manufacturing processes, I think, too) REALLY were, and what they are doing now.
Any guesses?
If a fill a glass until it is almost full and then stop but then you proceed to keep filling it until it overflows, we are not jointly responsible for the mess…
Bad analogy. It’s more like an overfilled balloon that was about to pop. Yeah, Biden signed Congress’s last stimulus bill and popped it. But everybody else was overfilling that damned balloon before then. Or did you just show up on this website this year?
It’s more like playing a party game where everyone has to put three breaths into a balloon and then pass it to the person next to them who repeats the process. It is inevitably going to pop, only question is who ends up with balloon on their face. But the popping is inherent in the system.
Actually, it is a perfect analogy. The $2 trillion bill passed in March 2021. This was a huge amount on top of the $1 trillion from December 2020. Inflation exploded mid-2021, which is a logical policy lag from March. Proximate cause has been established.
Even if you want to argue that the December 2020 bill was too much, and spilled over the edge a little bit (spilling over the edge of the glass being analogous to inflation), that does not mean that the huge March bill did not grossly exacerbate the mess.
Right right right. Trump’s $9 trillion in deficit spending had nothing to do with it. Nor did the $3.5+ trillion of QE that happened during 2020. Trump’s $3.5 trillion of COVID stimulus during his term had nothing to do with it either (funny how you just selectively remember only $1 trillion). It was all Biden’s fault and THE $1.9 trillion in early 2021 that definitively caused all that inflation, case closed. Spare us the nonsense and selective blaming that suits your party’s narrative. This is exactly the stupidity that most of us try to avoid here.
There is only one party. Therefore, I propose that all of us lifelong democrats become republicans which would accomplish several important objectives.
Firstly, it would take away the artificial splitting of the vote orchastrated by way of the charade of the dems vs the reps, the uniparty.
Secondly, the new republican party could primary everyone of the bought and sold congressman, bearing in mind the seniority system, an internal innovation to ensure tenure.
Thirdly, we could vote in a national election
Fourth, we could elect progressive representatives that will stabilize the meager economic social gains that Americans have experienced over the past two decades.
It is a mind game, like the expelling of bodily gasses, disagreeable but unavoidable.
Totally agree.
Well I don’t wish at all for any stock market crash because I’m 67 and have kids and grandkids and don’t wish any crash or financial harm on anyone . A market crash most likely would harm the top percentage who spend 50 percent of the money in USA and would surely cause a recession in my opinion.
Trumps policies should eventually help get the overall economy for everyone back on track and less government spend .
bs ini, yes, it would cause a recession, but it would also, hopefully over the long run, cause the economy to realign such that the top few percent’s wealth effect spending isn’t keeping everything going.
that’s the reason why so many companies have only made “luxury” goods and services, because that’s where the money is, to quote willie sutton.
that’s not good long term.
Exactly! preserving this system is preserving a system that no longer works for most, but only works for some. All good if you’re in the right segment i guess. I would love to see stocks crash to more historically normal valuations, same with housing, education, land, etc. Its called opportunity and i would love to see it come back for people, regardless of my age or economic status. In times like these, you don’t have to be a genius to realize what we have is unsustainable. Bringing it back to sustainable is good for the long term health of the country, even if asset prices gotta fall to make that happen.
I agree. I don’t see a stock market crash as desirable. A crash is an unplanned chaotic event like a tornado. A result not the cause.
The fact is that a stock market decline seems like a necessary adjustment to the problems created by the twin deficits, trade and budget.
Praying that traditional mores maintain dominance is a religious point of view. We only hear from the winners. The bulk of humanity, the losers, are the root of the earth.
I only pray in my head. Every day. Just in case.
If the stock market had taken off since January then the current regime would be taking credit for it, but if it tanks then it must be someone else’s fault.
All we’re seeing is the result of the dog finally catching the car, and the stock market going you know what, maybe it wasn’t a good idea to bet on the dog.
The Fed is NOT incompetent.
They have done a decent job of minimizing the impact of the GFC and the Pandemic.
But there are costs to those, like pain drawn out slowly, but better than what could have been (i.e. Great Depression 2.0 and economic collapse, respectively).
Their responses haven’t been perfect but far better than nothing.
Just because you don’t notice what DIDN’T go wrong doesn’t mean those things were any less avoided. And no less deserving of credit.
The Fed has been totally incompetent in their reaction to the pandemic.
There was enormous uncertainty from about March 2020 to January 2021, and it would be unfair to overly criticize policy during that window.
But there was never any call at all for buying MBS, especially in 2021 and 2022 when home prices increased 30-60% depending on your locale, for literally no reason, housing is such a large contributor to inflation, to have done this and completely ignored the consequences is beyond outrageous, there is no economic justification for such behavior, and then to have taken so long to pivot away from QE to QT, and to have not outright sold MBS, this is supreme economic malpractice and they should all be fired.
First off, imperfect is not “totally incompetent”.
Second, you use to tools you have to achieve the results you want.
Third, they DID keep the economy from continuing down in free-fall, or do you not remember March, 2020.
So don’t listen to all the armchair quarterbacks that somehow think they’d have done better. Yes, there was always “better” but that’s with the benefit of hindsight.
The FED is ignorant and arrogant.
The Fed bails out the politicians when they overspend. After the pandemic spending we got lots of inflation.
Jerome has entered the chat.
Do you base that opinion on textbooks, theories, and what should happen, or the real world?
In the real world, wealth concentration is a problem. Affordable housing is a problem. Artificially inflated multi-year asset price bubbles are a problem. Extreme capital favoritism is a problem.
Thank you for this post. You are 100% correct. If only people could look past their own wallets and see that.
Brian, you make a fine FED apologist ………..
The FED night not be incompetent ,,,, they might just be corrupt
They have done bad maneuvering for decades
If you are part of the favored financial engineering class, all is good
If you are part of the debt slave or working class or modestly retired unable to work class, things are not good
That is absolutely TERRIBLE advice, telling people to bet on sports. Sports gambling is very addictive, besides having ZERO chance of beating the spread, which is 10% on every losing bet, it totally consumes your daily life. Now that it is legal in many states, it will destroy tens of thousands of lives, it will be just as bad as opioid or fentanyl addiction. I think eventually there will be billion dollar lawsuits. The stock market is MUCH better than sports betting. It is no contest. If you can’t handle the gyrations of the stock market, that’s fine. But recommending gambling on sports is simply reprehensible.
Yes, sports bets expire worthless very quickly. I have had stocks taper off, and taken losses, but there was always some actual asset, to sell and recover something. I see my losses as the premium I paid to “wager” in the markets, but with stocks it meant to take a stake, to own something, (also most always) having some value at the end of the day. This is also the reason I do not buy things like short-dated options.
…and, given the amount of money involved, with the steroids of digital speed/obscurity, and the apparent blessings of certain leagues, themselves- one might wonder about an architecture of 21st Century point-shaving…
may we all find a better day.
Ace
I now believe the stock market has gone from being a gambling casino to a full fledged confidence game worth of the likes of Al Capone and Lucky Luciano. Notice how they take imploded stocks out of the Dow so as to make the averages look good. That is so dishonest to say the least. Of course, you’ll never hear the shills on the financial news networks talk about this. I wouldn’t put one dime in there. Especially, with the guaranteed rates you can get now on Treasuries, CDs and Money market funds.
Swamp, that’s been index practice since forever. How would you account for stocks like Sears that disappear entirely without removing them from the index at some point?
It’s not at all dishonest. The index return includes that piss poor performance until that stock is kicked out.
Go short with 10% of your capital. It could be worth the risk …
Not sure what it is, but your scenario is as if the hand that rocks the cradle is going to allow that to happen.
I thought Wolf’s reporting was accurate and his bias was not obvious. I confess, I agree with Wolf uncomfortably often.
Reflecting a bit, the collision between whether to continue to inflate the asset bubbles or too deflate them the old fashioned way, recession.
Like you said, leverage unravels in the blink of an eye and there has never been a recorded confluence of asset bubbles in the most cited history of the world.
The markets lead the economy, so ya that’s the usual way this works.
We can all start singing Europe’s song ‘The Final Countdown’ before the dam breaks.
NO HARRY……,JUST NO!
Nothing can be so bad as to play that drivel from Europe!
You want a good end of times song let go with Maidens”2 Minutes To Midnight”,really do not think that is asking too much!
It’s nice to put a face to ‘RTDFA’ and other delightful surprises. 🫤. Yeah, I’ve seen you before – a time or two, but I think there was a beard.
The guy who loves cryptocurrencies and has a strong aversion to electric cars! Now I know you’re not a computer bot, unless the guy in the video is the latest generation android.
Correct, the guy in the video is an AI generated android on the blockchain.
AI or human, you are vastly preferable to that green chicken.
Not to be picky, but it is RTGDFA. To see Wolf Richter, in the flesh, steeped in humility, is a real treat for of us that prospered from his hard work, honesty, intelligence and willingness to tutor.
Wolf looks similar to the guitarist G.E. Smith.
I remember him from the Saturday Night Live band in the 1990s. As an unappreciative teenager, I didn’t realize at the time how good things were back in those days. Wish I could go back.
The interview reminds me of the old Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”
Wolf,
The stock market experienced a bear market in 2022 and interest rate and inflation rate were higher back then but there was no recession. So even if the stock market enters a bear market, why would it lead to recession now?
Yeah, but the drop was only 20% in 2022. It’s going to take a lot more than that, as I pointed out.
Ill buy you a beer if stocks drop to historically average PE levels and there’s no recession. Hell i will buy you several beers, maybe a beer each day i am unemployed.
Historically recessions have pulled the stock market back. But in the 2000s the US has relied on wealth effects from asset bubbles to encourage consumer spending. So now, pricking of the asset bubble may cause a recession. The tail wags the dog now.
In 2019 too, the stock market fell about 20% and the economy slowed down a lot. Then Fed reloaded the bazooka in response to COVID and the federal government chased that down with free money doles creating perhaps the greatest bubble in the US.
I think Wolf is damn right….a recession will be unavoidable if these valuations were to be let go. Will US think long term or once again choose short term gain for long term pain….that is the question.
I’m still LTTGDFV, but I wonder if your ‘meltdown’ comes to pass, if the housing market will follow? I think it has to. You don’t seem to make predictions about the future of the housing market. It’s nice to see you make what I see as a reasonable prediction for the stock market.
The sad thing about a stock market meltdown would be its effects on pension funds and privately retirement funds. The results could be devastating. BTW – time to find a better crystal ball!
the housing market is only led by the stock market in my opinion at the high end.
that is, people with $20 million portfolios in the s&p don’t rush to sell their overpriced $2 million house that really should be $1.2 million.
if that $20 million drops to $10 million or less, they might.
i don’t see the stock market affecting the normal end housing market much at all.
To whom would they sell it?
Buyers.
anyone who wants to buy. the problem is that people with a lot of stock “feel rich” and they’re letting it influence their buying and selling decisions with other things, like houses.
they feel like they can keep it as a second house or wait until prices are back at $2 million with interest rates at 4% again, in their own minds.
a popping of the stock bubble may let some air out of this too.
Listen to Adam often. Appreciated the interview and perspective to push back on his more bearish view.
I liked the part where Wolf mentions his chagrin when reading the comment section of wolfstreet.
I was like, boys, our 15 minutes of fame has arrived!
I deeply appreciate constructive responses from Wolf that contribute to the discussion or directly address my inquiries. Such comments, as opposed to mere article referrals, significantly enhance my experience here. I consider this platform and its comments a vital measure of comprehension.
Interesting that Wolf, Warren Buffett, and myself are very much into T-bills. Keeping the powder dry, perhaps waiting for blood in the streets. It was unclear to me as to where Wolf stood on this, but he is very clear about T-bills in this video (near the end of the video). I think almost everyone knows that the stock market will eventually crash (it always does), we just don’t know when (tomorrow, next year, in five years?). It was only 16 years ago that the S&P 500 was at 666.79 (on March 6, 2009). It closed Friday at 5,580.94. Tulip craze, South Seas bubble, Panic of 1907, 1929 crash, dot com crash. What we will call the next one, the ZIRP crash?
I don’t want to be holding stocks when the crash happens. Getting 4.3% risk free and state income tax free is okay for me.
Good point. Let’s see what the next crash should be called…
1. Helicoper money crash
2. NIRP-ZIRP Crash
3. Market fundamentals don’t matter crash.
4. Tulip bulbs crypto crash
5. Jerome Powell’s crash
6. Wall street are morons crash
But I think your right. Let’s just call it the NIRP CRASH
I would call it the QE Crash. Because it’s really been inflating since early 2009 when the Fed started printing money.
They should have COMPLETELY stopped QE in late 2011 but in 2012 there was this election coming up and all that liquidity and stock market juice sure helped Presidential approval ratings..
Anyway, if there is a 60 to 70% drop in the S&P due to the party actually finally being over, then it really goes back a lot farther than the pandemic or “Bidenflation”, although these certainly added to it.
Purple Nirple, perhaps?
Offshoring of real economy crash. Only reversing it will save our butts!
The next one is the Everything Bubble crash. Condos in Florida $90K, gold $1800, Apple stock $70, low-mileage teslas $5K. iPhone Max Pro Ultra Plus will still be $1400, but low end model $350.
For those prices I may just have to move to Florida and buy a Tesla!
What would you recommend as an informative guide to T-bills as a strategy?
Easy: figure out how much you want to have in t-bills, then buy, hold. :-)
I buy at auction, hold to maturity. I usually buy three month Treasuries. Auctions are once a week on Monday and settlement date (when they want your money) is on the following Thursday. I use a brokerage account, Schwab. If you know nothing about this stuff, Schwab has a generally good telephone support staff to walk you through it. I hear Fidelity is okay, but I don’t use them because they screwed me on a separate issue over thirty years ago (I don’t forget). Vanguard has lousy telephone support.
As for strategy, right now three month Treasuries pay a higher yield than most bank three month CDs, and you don’t have early withdrawal penalties with Treasuries. Same for six month. Also interest on Treasuries is free of state income tax.
1) Go the treasury direct.
2) Get an account.
3) Add a fundable bank account.
4) Purchase treasury of your choosing. If you are unsure, start with a $5k 1 month. You are charged bond-(rate/duration), e.g., $5k – $xxx.xx. After 30 days you’ll get $5k back. If you choose to re-invest, you’ll get your payment $xxx.xx and a new 1m treasury will be purchased at the next available auction.
5) Maintain a healthy bias against middlemen.
Thanks Wolf for introducing me to Adam’s video blog. I have great respect for you and Adam has some great insights through his outstanding guests.
T-bills and chillin’ here!
The wealth effect is real. A drop in stocks can absolutely cause a drop in consumer spending because the top 10-% of Americans who own 90% of stocks are also responsible for 50% of consumer spending. Of their wealth drops, they will compensate by saving more and that will drop consumer spending, resulting in a co transaction. Now it may take more than a 10% pullback in stocks. But 20%+ is another story and there is zero reason to think that we won’t hit a 20% correction. I say that because the usual spike in indicators like the VIX has not yet happened. People are not panicking yet, instead stocks have mostly sold off because the AI bubble has finally started to burst. But you do see the non AI companies now starting to slide based on economic outlook. For example UPS and Target took heavy losses based on their economic outlook. If that spreads, and I think it will, we will hit 20% level and that will cause a contraction. That is to say nothing of the big drop in government spending by Trump. And the Fed will not save us this time. The Fed will be too busy dealing with tariff inflation to really be able to adjust rates
It is spreading I think. Diversifying short position from Nvidia types into Costco and Master Card types. Also, longer term puts on these are not as expensive as high flying tech stocks. Somehow AutoZone looks like hypotenuse; just hit ATH.
I have shorted both NVDA and Tesla during most recent pullbacks. Waiting for just before Tesla q1 to short them again.
There has NOT been any drop in federal spending during the current Trump administration, and in fact spending has gone parabolic.
and that’s why the “wealth effect” as a plan was so moronic. spending based on it left two options. one, tolerate a recession when it reversed or two, keep assets inflated forever to maintain it.
our leaders chose option two until relatively recently.
May I suggest that folks seriously consider moving money into gold and silver. I agree with the high probability of a market crash as Wolf has intimated. When that happens, there will be a rush out of dollars and into…….________________________?
One cannot “move money into gold” because gold is money already. There is no “rush out of dollars” because for every buyer there is a seller. Dollars will still be dollars in someon’s bank account (like moi preferably).
Gold has NEVER been ‘money’ for a floating speculative value.
Ig-zactly.
It’s actually funny how hard it is for people to wrap their brains around this concept. I see this stuff even in big financial publications that people pay lots of money to read and that should know better. Pretty soon, AI — which is learning this nonsense — is going to say the same thing. And then it’s the holy truth or whatever.
Nothing but technicalities to show everyone how smart you are. Rephrase: Everyone will replace dollar currency into gold money.
There. Satisfied?
“Rush out of dollars” should be rephrased as “Greater buying interest in gold that will increase the price of gold in dollar terms”. There. Satisfied?
You all can hold on to your stocks and bonds. If Wolf is correct in his major market correction, and/or worse, you will regret not having at least 10% of your assets in gold/silver. Maybe you disagree but please stop with the technicalities.
Valuations will simply vanish on stocks and other assets as they never were real in any sort way including on speculative prices of gold and other fungible commodities.
…a rush into .22 bricks…….count on it!
Not everyone sees only shiney stuff as a safe store of value……monkeys…… maybe.
And you can bury them under the house just like shiny assets, and everyone will eventually forget you have them, like the other.
Well, the bottom 90% of households that own no more than 7% of the total stock market could simply move their retirement funds to bond or money market options, then when the stock market tanks the top 10% who own 93% of it will take the hit. It’s amazing how the working guy with $112,564 in their 401k has been convinced that the market can NEVER be allowed to go down even if it means 5% inflation. “We’re all in this together”.
Agree. Also, someone is 100% in stocks, but Fidelity is showing dollar amount as if it’s money in the bank.
Those paper profits aren’t real until you sell. There is a similar problem when people brag about the Zillow price of their home. I tell them to sell it, then brag about it. However, the property tax crooks will tax the house based on its unrealized gains. Imagine what would happen if the IRS (somewhat lesser crooks) taxed unrealized capital gains every year. Now that would be really amusing.
Precisely thurd2. A welcome dosage of reality in your post.
And those paper profits (which extrapolate to multiple asset classes) are a part of the “drunken sailor” consumer spending level Wolf has covered. Why not take that expensive vacation? After all, our 401(k) is up yet another 10%.
How substantial will the economic hit be if and when the wealth effect reverses? Could be quite the show. I’m continuing to keep a dry powder keg for such an occasion.
Ol’B – has always been of interest to me that the ‘93%’ never seems to take the hit in walking, breathing, human terms by the same proportion when called on to defend the nation that has provided them such bounty…
may we all find a better day.
Not to go too off the subject, but the books of wisdom say that at the end, there is a great reversal where the people last in line in this life are put at the head of the line, and vice versa.
DM: Red flashing warning for US economy as Treasury burn rate goes PARABOLIC in biggest ever cash drawdown
The US Treasury Department has a dangerously low amount of cash on hand, which puts additional pressure on lawmakers to prevent the country from defaulting on its debt in a few months.
The US Treasury Department has burned through cash at a historic rate in the last month – an alarming signal that may require lawmakers to intervene to prevent the country from defaulting on the national debt.
The agency, now led by former hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, has burned through $286 billion in the month of March alone.
This is the largest single-month drawdown in American history, and it’s only rivaled by the Treasury spending $279 billion in August 2021 during the height of the pandemic.
August 21 was the height of the pandemic? I felt like it was over by then.
Sentiment is changing, and rather quickly.
The market, housing, peoples’ spending, and employer hiring will respond and align downward eventually, beginning this year and for quite awhile afterwards, IMO.
Best to mostly pull out of the market for now, or at least hedge if you’re in the game. And don’t expect a quick crash necessarily, a long grind down and short countercycles may be more likely.
he basically decided that he’d rather have a recession than 4 more years of out of control inflation. i’m supportive.
The paralyzing effect of Trumps policies will slow money velocity. MMMFs to the rescue.
I’m impressed with the depth of information in this post.
This was another great interview given by Wolf. It’s plenty of sound advice for those on the receiving end who are seeking it. The uncertainty of Trump and $DOGE well laid plans leave the entire world economy in hatches. I think in the long run, the nationalism play will make the US stronger, there is also tipping point at which total chaos ensued. Ah the Shock and Awe of being American. One thing is for sure every swing dick outside the USA will be sweating bullets, as their economies are deeply intertwined with the rise and fall of the big casino in the West. Wall Street pays attention when the White House says they rather see it all burn down. I will stay my money market foxhole and wait for the all clear.
I think if we could manage to stop our overspending and start to be careful and responsible, it would be an eventual positive for the whole world. Being on an unsustainable course, a challenging readjustment would happen either way. Better to face reality and start managing it sooner than later and potentially worse, especially for a country that wants to be a leader.
Howdy Folks. Guess who is still buying Tbills ? Buffett & Bubba.
Squirrels do it better. Always have. Enjoy the ride down Wallstreet.
NO more ZIRP or QE for you.
This is just like August and September 2008.
As Dr. Philip George says. “When interest rates go up, flows into savings and time deposits increase”.
So, large CDs went up in Feb.
oops…flight to safety
Is it my imagination, or does this interviewer try really hard, each time, to get you to commit to the financial apocalypse?
I didn’t get that but I can see how audiences of this kind of information would gravitate in that direction. Generally Wolfstreet likes to hold the Fed overwhelming responsible for the state of things when that is a very reductionist view. Historical context, especially for trade and fiscal deficits are hugely important, and much of that credit goes to those we democratically elect, including being involved in some sort of military conflict for all but 17 years of our history. Unironically those all weave together along with domestic policies to create the mess that exists today and no magic wand can fix any it. This isn’t the 80s anymore and the chessboard more complex.
Many of Adam’s other guests have been fully committed to a financial and/or economic apocalypse for years, and it just comes out naturally on his show.
DXY up.
Who knows what additional tariffs might come, such as against countries that buy Russian oil or other things. Factory building could offset problems that could bring but on the other hand a slowing in demand could also slow factory investment. Plus need to get tax bill through this year or taxes for “middle class” go back up.
In short, way too many potential headwinds and that isn’t counting the complete unpredictables. For me though it comes down to so much wealth among so few people and that has to go somewhere. Sure, they can park in money markets or go into gold but seems like many sitting on huge capital gains so will keep money there.
Wolf,
I see a nice bookshelf in the background in the video.
Would love to hear your favorite book recommendations.
‘Goldilocks and the Three Bears’ 🐻
After the word of life and the Creator, religious scripture, my favorite is Don Quixote. Adventure, humor, camaraderie, and Cervantes’ tone is friendly and engaging.
Funny that the title of the video is “coming crash…..”
The expert guest did not once mention that there is a crash coming.
My theory since last summer has been that if Trump was elected he’d immediately crash the market and blame it on the prior administration, ripping off the band-aid, and making the hard choices that are best for America. The reasons for this are:
1. Americans hate inflation. Two ways to stop inflation: higher rates or significantly slower economic growth/recession.
2. Recession will lead to lowering interest rates, better for any of his friends in CRE, better for national debt
3. An economic slowdown and market downturn were probably evitable in the next 4 years, better to control it and do it at the beginning of your term so you can blame Biden
4. A crisis generally gives one the ability to take extreme measures, act quickly, exercise more power – he can tear things down and rebuild them as he sees fit. If things are going well and people are happy he can’t do that (this is basically how he ran his campaign make people feel there’s a crisis).
My guess is the goal is market 20-30% down and slowing economic growth or mild recession in the short term, with a plan to have people happy and feeling good again by midterm elections. However, hard to know if things will get out of hand – depending how leveraged things are there’s always a chance it spirals out of control and we get a bigger market downturn.
A correction is needed but playing the blame game is counter productive and poor leadership. Taking responsibility and telling the truth gets the best results and sets the right example for people to follow.
If the market and economy crashes like it already is in the progress of doing, Trump will say what that commander in Vietnam did over 50 years ago when he ordered his fighter pilots to level a village which was infected with Viet Cong:
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it”