Tesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market. Non-Tesla EV Sales Jumped to a Record. ICE Vehicle Sales Dipped

Since 2016, ICE vehicle sales have plunged by 31%, while EV sales have soared 10-fold.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Sales of non-Tesla EVs in California soared by 19% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and by 113% from two years ago, to a record 50,616 vehicles, surpassing Tesla sales for the first time.

But Tesla sales in California dropped in Q4 to 43,658 vehicles, the lowest since Q3 2022, down by nearly 8% from a year ago, and down by 17% from two years ago, according to vehicle registrations released by the California new vehicle dealer association CNCDA.

For Tesla, this is a mess. California is its largest market in the US. Tesla was still the #2 automaker in California, behind Toyota, for 2024, but its market share in Q4 shrank to 10.1%, the lowest since Q2 2022. Its Model Y remained by far the #1 bestseller in the state, with nearly twice as many sales as the #2 bestseller, the Toyota RAV4. But sales of the Model 3, formerly the #2 bestseller in the state, have plunged, and that’s where the big decline came from.

On an annual basis, the overall auto market in California stalled in 2024, with registrations of ICE vehicles and EVs combined dipping a hair to 1.78 million, well below the 2 million range in 2015 through 2018 (yellow in the chart below).

ICE vehicles, including hybrids and plugin hybrids, dipped by 0.7% to 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, down by 31% since 2016 (blue).

EV sales ticked up by 1.2%, despite the 11.6% drop in Tesla sales in 2024. Since 2016, EV sales have soared about 10-fold, at the expense of ICE vehicles. For the whole year, EV market share inched up to 22.0%, despite the Tesla mess.

Tesla’s global sales in 2024 fell by 1.1% to 1.789 million vehicles, according to Tesla in early January, which made us wonder at the time just how overvalued Tesla’s stock was, as its EV growth story is now over, and it’s instead running on Musk’s promises and predictions. Ah we know, the robotaxis again. But Tesla hasn’t even applied for a permit to operate robotaxis in California, according to the San Francisco Examiner.

By brand, the top market-share leaders stayed in place, but some lost share, while other gained share in 2024:

Toyota expanded its share to 16.4% (from 15.7%), but its share remains far below the 21% range in the years before the arrival of Tesla’s Model Y, which quickly became the #1 bestseller in California and ate Toyota’s lunch.

Tesla’s share, while still #2, dropped to 11.6% (from 13.0%). Honda, #3, is closing in on Tesla with a share of 10.9% (up from 9.7%). Ford’s share, #4, declined to 7.4% (from 7.7%), and Chevrolet’s share, #5, declined to 6.2% (from 6.7%):

By Model, the top market share leaders changed. The Tesla Model Y remained by far the #1 bestselling vehicle in the state, even as sales dipped a little year-over-year. But sales of the Model 3 plunged by 35%, knocking the model down into #4 position, from #2 last year.

Sales of the Toyota RAV4 and Camry both rose, and both moved up one notch, surpassing the Model 3. Sales of the Honda Civic and CR-V both rose, and they remained in #5 and #6 position respectively.

EV rankings. Tesla’s Cybertruck hasn’t made it into the top 15 of the overall models yet, far from it, but sales rose to 9,019 trucks in 2024, and so within the EV models, it rose to #5 bestselling EV. The Ford Lightning pickup (5,590) didn’t make it into the top 10 EVs.

  1. Tesla Model Y (128,923)
  2. Tesla Model 3 (53,056)
  3. Hyundai Ioniq 5 (16,879)
  4. Ford Mustang Mach-E (10,874)
  5. Tesla Cybertruck (9,019
  6. Rivian R1S SUV (8,721)
  7. Tesla Model X (8,585)
  8. BMW i4 (8,396
  9. Honda Prologue (6,955) made by GM as the Chevy Blazer because Honda doesn’t have an EV.
  10. BMW iX (6,027).

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  74 comments for “Tesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market. Non-Tesla EV Sales Jumped to a Record. ICE Vehicle Sales Dipped

  1. SoCalBeachDude says:

    Tesla needs to learn about making decent cars, and needs to fire its gadfly CEO who apparently has no time whatsoever to do his job and manage the affairs of this company.

    • Brian says:

      My impression is that they ARE good cars. (Cybertruck not withstanding.) Those I know who have them, love them. The biggest complaint I’ve heard was for the Model3 which is too heavy for its suspension to handle bad Canadian roads.

      And Musk deserves real credit for the work he’s done in the past. Pity he’s become such an ahole.

    • Debt-Free-Bubba says:

      Howdy SoCal. He is trying and looking for new subsi dies. He s looking everywhere for one…..

    • Cory R says:

      Maybe Musk is simply deploying a strategy to add a different demographic to the customer base?

  2. SoCalBeachDude says:

    MW: Tesla cars are made in America. So why is Tesla’s stock down so much?

  3. SoCalBeachDude says:

    Elon Moves With Lightning Speed to Exert Control Over Govt…

  4. thurd2 says:

    Wolf, very nice data. But where is your usually superb commentary/speculation? Why is Tesla is not doing so well in California?

    • Wolf Richter says:

      I already discussed this six months ago and I didn’t want to repeat it:

      Non-Tesla EV Sales +45% in Q2 YoY in California, Tesla -24%: People Have Had it with Musk’s Bullshit about California and San Francisco?

      “Oh Elon, trying to wreck Tesla? Consumer boycotts work, see Bud Light. Don’t mess with American consumers!”

      • Phoenix_Ikki says:

        He is on a path of the ultimate Fxxk around and finds out mode…either he will be special enough to never find out and be the exception or on the flip side, he might find out Maria Antonette-style, judging by our gun population and the how “rational” people are in this country.

        • Sandy says:

          I’ve been saying for months that his real role is to play the Fall Guy for when stuff starts to blow up.

        • Ben R says:

          Great take Sandy. I assumed the two egomaniac children would get into a pissing contest and have a highly entertaining falling out, but I could see a patsy situation, too. Either way, before too much damage is done plz?

      • drg1234 says:

        Having just completed the purchase of an EV for the wife, there are a lot of alternatives out there now. Many of these are better choices than anything in the Tesla line, which has stagnated.

        If you consider vehicles with a 3rd seating row as we did, you have in ascending order of price:

        Kia EV9
        Volvo EX90
        Rivian R1S
        Mercedes too-expensive-something

        All of which are excellent. So people who are fed up with the Elon have choices.

      • russell1200 says:

        The risk of making a non-political product political. Bud Lite was crazy, but even products where the majority of your consumers share the new politics can be highly problematic. An example of this (I have only seen it mentioned once), would be the NBA during BLM. Even if only 15%-25% of the fans are conservative, what product can afford to loose that number of customers?

      • danf51 says:

        Percentage sales are meaningless for EV’s. Actual numbers are more relevant. Percentages just hide the still small shares of EV in relation to the overall car market.

        • Wolf Richter says:

          Why don’t you RTGDFA that I linked in the comment that you replied to and the article right here above. They’re full of dollars and dollar charts. I hate these idiotic lazy comments.

      • mudd says:

        Whoever still owns Tesla stock is about to lose their shirts. A PE of 180 and 60% drop in sales in Europe – and the full backlash hasn’t even hit yet? No one is buying those dumb robots anytime soon – so how is a PE of 180 justified when it’s main business in full on freefall?

  5. ryan says:

    Were I a suspious or conspiratorially minded person I’d say that California buyers are exercising their dislike for the owner of this company…I mean the major owner…

  6. Sandy says:

    In other news, I’m already getting news headlines of “buy now before tariffs increase home prices”. Nothing stops these people.

    The world could end and it would still be a great time to buy.

    • Phoenix_Ikki says:

      “The world could end and it would still be a great time to buy” Think NAR should adopt that as their tagline in their advertisting

      • Sandy says:

        Maybe I could start a side hustle writing marketing copy for the NAR.

        House burned down? No problem, it’s a great time to buy.

        Laid off from your job? Just more time to decorate your new house – now is a great time to buy.

        A loved one just died of cancer? Honor their memory with a new home, now is a great time to buy.

        With a couple glasses of wine, I could do this all night.

        • Ruckster1 says:

          😂

        • DougP says:

          Is does at times get rather confusing because at the same time they state that ” now is a great time to buy”, they are also telling you that ” now is a great time to sell”

          How it can be both at the same time is one of the great mysteries!

  7. Phoenix_Ikki says:

    It’s good to see there’s still some slight resemblance of justice that pops up once in a while. Hopefully, this will accelerate and continue to the downside. However, at the speed of things that are happening, the only predictable thing is how fast sxxt can get worse for the most vulnerable and there are no lasting repercussions for the perpetrator, so perhaps this too will pass for him.

  8. Mike M says:

    Quick question. All of the Tesla sales are full BEV, and come of the other cars you listed are also BEVs versus hybrid’s (which i sometimes see categorized at EVs) or PHEV plug-in hybrids (which i usually see categorized as EVs). Are all the non-Tesla sales listed as EVs all full BEVs… or are some hybrids of various forms? Many thanks for your interesting columns, Wolf!

    • Wolf Richter says:

      EVs don’t have an ICE (internal combustion engine). Hybrids and plugin hybrids have an ICE under the hood with a fuel tank in the back that you fill up with gasoline at the gas station, and they’re ICE vehicles. They are NEVER classified as EVs. Sometimes they’re grouped into something called “electrified vehicles,” that is then subdivided into EVs and hybrids. But hybrids are ICE vehicles.

      So yes, all non-Tesla EVs are EVs and don’t have an ICE under the hood. All ICE vehicles in the article include hybrids and plugin hybrids, anything with an ICE.

      • ShortTLT says:

        Confusingly, in some states (such as MA) you can still get EV plates with a PHEV.

        I agree with your definition that EV should mean no combustion is taking place.

        • Wolf Richter says:

          So I looked this up. Yes, confusing.

          In the state, EV rebates apply only to battery-only EVs. There used to be lesser rebates for PHEVs, but they’re gone.

          For an extra $20, you can buy an “EV” license plate from the RMV (called DMV in most states). It’s voluntary. From what I gathered, the purpose is to let first responders know that there is a big battery onboard (PHEVs have a fairly big battery, but not as big as EVs). “Bragging rights” was also cited as one of the reasons for buying an EV license plate 🤣 (the internet is awesome)

  9. Depth Charge says:

    “Tesla Sales Got Crushed in Q4 in California, its Largest US Market”

    BitCON “solves this.”

    • Sandy says:

      Certainly easier than making a great product at a price people will buy without a tax incentive.

  10. RJJ says:

    I had liked the car, but now would never buy it. I don’t want goons going into US agencies at Elon’s directions to take over our government. It would be fine to fix it, but not to become the dictator and that’s how it looks now.

    • Glen says:

      I don’t see a huge difference between lobbyists and massive corporate funding of elections much different than having them actually have roles. It is honestly refreshing as at least they are transparent with who the political establishment serves. No different than why we have for profit healthcare except it was slightly more backdoor but still right in our face.

      • numbers says:

        Is there a difference between:

        A) your neighbor asking you to fix something in your house,

        B) an HOA requiring you to fix it because the entire neighborhood agreed to a rule, and

        C) your neighbor breaking in in the middle of the night and doing it without your (or the HOAs) permission?

        • TraderAndy says:

          He got our permission with the election outcome. As long as he answers to our employee, the president I am 100% behind cleaning up the rampant stealing of the unelected bureaucracy. Argentina had the same uproar and protests as Milei flushed unnecessary overhead. Most of the protestor were formerly privileged, former government employees.

  11. Lane says:

    Musk is about to take a page from his X playbook and start suing customers who don’t buy Teslas. If you live in California and don’t own a Tesla, expect to be served any day now.
    Of course, now that he apparently has the keys to the federal payment system, he can just start spending trillions of public dollars on his companies’ products to meet any fantastical sales projections he can dream up.

  12. The Real Tony says:

    In Markham, Ontario Canada where I live the Chinese are still buying Mercedes Benz cars instead of Tesla cars. When the Tesla car first came out a lot of them sold but after the $20,000 price drop virtually none of them of sold.

  13. Aussie Andy says:

    Probably time for a new sedan model, X Y S & 3 haven’t changed since they started production have they??

    • endeavor says:

      That and the fact that GM at one point was offering lease deals on the EV’s that even Yugo would have had a hard time matching in it’s day.

  14. Firefly says:

    First post here after a long time reading and enjoying the thoughtful posts by Wolf and a fair amount of the comments.

    I remain a fan of EV’s, but will not buy one until reliable solid state batteries make them faster to charge. As far as Elon goes? It’s over, the bromance is gone with his mindless rantings and finding out about his activities at Treasury.

    Voting with your dollars is your best voice.

  15. Lune says:

    And yet the stock price went up the day after an absolutely atrocious earnings report.

    Far from not being a growth company, it’s not even a “stable” company. Its annual sales are in decline. Its vaunted operating margin is now lower than the industry average. It’s being forced to offer massive discounts and incentives just to keep its sales from dropping further. And European sales in January show shocking declines of 30-60% in various countries so far.

    But oh look! Full self driving robotaxis! And dancing robots!

    Even those who call Tesla a tech or AI or whatever company is insulting the tech/AI industry. Nvidia’s PE is 45. Meta is 29. Tesla? 188! IOW, even if you think it’s going to be a world-beating tech company that’s going to dominate with a massive technological moat like, say, Nvidia, then their share price should be about a quarter of what it is right now. There is simply no industry or market or future world-changing opportunity that justifies Tesla’s current stock price. And it’s hit the ceiling on its real, much more boring market, selling cars.

    All that said, there’s no way I’m shorting this company. Too many cultists willing to YOLO their life savings into this one. But I’ll be watching from the sidelines with my popcorn…

  16. Bman says:

    I think there’s futher downside to Tesla’s sales in California and elsewhere. The CEO is disliked by many and is alienating more people. More importantly, the build quality is poor. I’ve got two Teslas and they were great for the first few years. Then the problems started. Among them, the screen on my Model X is leaking. I would like to get it fixed but the replacement cost is huge and I don’t want to give any more money to Tesla. Where I live (HK), Tesla used to be very popular but many people I know are unhappy with the cars and the objectionable CEO.

  17. Broski says:

    Aren’t Hyundai and Kia part of the same conglomerate?

    • Digger Dave says:

      And the GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado are the same truck with combined sales exceeding others, yet the F150 is America’s “best selling truck”.

      • Wolf Richter says:

        Broski,

        Yes largely, but it’s more complicated due to cross-ownership of their shares while both stocks are publicly traded. A big part of Kia shares is held by Hyundai, and Kia holds shares of Hyundai divisions. They’re using the same vehicle platforms, and so we can consider them one entity. But Kia and Hyundai are different “brands” like Chevy and Cadillac (both part of GM), or Ram and Dodge (both part of Stellantis), or Toyota and Lexus (both part of Toyota Motor Co). The lineup here in chart #3 is by “brand.”

        Digger Dave,

        Yes, it’s funny, Ford claims its “F-series” (from base F-150 through F-450) is the “bestselling truck,” while GM claims that the company is “# 1 in Full-Size Pickups.” I guess that Nissan can claim that the Titan is the “#1 discontinued truck” or whatever. Everyone gets to claim their #1 prize.

  18. Kent says:

    I recently replaced my 2014 Civic with a new one. I was going to buy an EV, but I don’t have faith that we will continue to see the build out of charging stations. I’m sure that’s not a problem in Cali, but down here in the South, they are much fewer and far between. The new Civic Hybrid was about $10k higher than I paid for the 2014 model, but is a $10k better car. Bigger, roomier, more and better tech, much faster, and getting 50.3 mpg. And mostly made in America.

  19. Kile says:

    Curious, how are vehicles with on-board ICE “range-extending generators” (such as Chevorlet Volt) considered? I’ve read that more manufacturers are looking to these as a cure for range and lack of charging location anxieties?

    If my memory is correct, Mazda had an EV model with a small compact rotary ICE and 3 gallon-ish gas tank that had the ability to extend the EV’s range by a 100 or so miles. I also read the Ram is planning for an ICE range extender on their new EV truck.

    These range extending generators add complexity, but seem like a reasonable bridge solution.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      The Volt was a plugin hybrid (“PHEV”), not an “EV.” Plugin hybrids are categorized as ICE vehicles. As explained further up in the comments:

      EVs don’t have an ICE (internal combustion engine). Hybrids and plugin hybrids have an ICE under the hood with a fuel tank in the back that you fill up with gasoline at the gas station, and they’re ICE vehicles. They are NEVER classified as EVs. Sometimes they’re grouped into something called “electrified vehicles,” that is then subdivided into EVs and hybrids. But hybrids and plugin hybrids are ICE vehicles. Anything with an ICE in it is an ICE vehicle.

      • Anthony A. says:

        Ford just announced an EREV for 2026+ which is the same tech as the Volt. The EREV is called the Extended Range EV and they say they will be outfitting F150’s with them. The TruthAboutCars.com has the article.

        Times are changing.

        • Wolf Richter says:

          Vehicles aren’t categorized by what the name says, but by the powertrain. Whatever four letters Ford sticks on the back of the vehicle, it’s still categorized as an ICE vehicle with a hybrid drive and doesn’t qualify for EV rebates. Ford accounts for and reports its pure EVs separately as “electric vehicles” or “EVs”. It also breaks out its hybrids as “hybrids.” Ford has had PHEVs for many years, it’s just a powertrain option, and it’s included in “hybrids.” All you have to do is look it up on their sales reports.

          You people are wasting my time with this nonsense!

          Here’s Ford’s January sales report. Click on it and see!

          https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2025/Feb/03/January-Sales-Tables.pdf

        • Anthony A. says:

          “You people are wasting my time with this nonsense!”

          I was just trying to be helpful and let you know what Ford Has announced. Sorry if I got too far out of the lines.

    • Publius says:

      Add BMW i3 as a car run by battery-powered motor with – in the i3s case, optional – an ICE backup generator. I like this setup, but then it was decided (California future mandate? EV purists?) that only 100% BEV would do and this approach was killed.

      • Prof. Emeritus says:

        The BMW i3 REX was axed because it was crap in real life. The way people imagined it was that the ICE kicks in at highway speed when fuel consumption rises and then you can cruise all-day long at 130 kmh/90 mph on the Autobahn.
        That’s not really what the small motorcycle engine was designed for. The battery discharge necessary to keep driving was often higher than what the engine was able to regenerate. So many found that while their cars did not came to a complete halt because of the battery running out, it dangerously slowed down on steeper inclines or in harsh weather conditions.
        Also, it was bloody noisy and harsh (again: sourced from a Kymco maxi scooter) and pretty much every customer was far more satisfied with the electric-only i3. The fuel tank capacity was 9L (2.4 gal), so essentially if you wanted to use it for what the name suggested (extending your range) carrying around a few cans of petrol in the boot was highly suggested.

  20. Ol'B says:

    Teslas are expensive. Cheapest Model 3 is $40k+? More?

    It’s not surprising that lower cost EVs are growing in market share as lower income people dip their toes into this new world of transportation. Tesla would do well to drive the M3 price down as quickly and deeply as possible. Decontent the car a bit, whatever. The tooling and all should be paid for by now. Get it down under $30k, then $25, then $20. They can introduce a new model at $50k for wealthier buyers who want the newest and best. Maybe a new Model S after nearly 15 years?

  21. Debt-Free-Bubba says:

    Howdy Folks. Live by the subsidy and die by the subsidy. Maybe Elon found some subsi dies from USAID. What a world….

  22. Reddog says:

    I still admire what they’ve accomplished and would buy one – you can pick up a low Miley 23 M3 for $20k net the $4k used EV credit (if you qualify).

    Cars as Wolf points out have gotten comically expensive… along with housing. EVs hopefully become another mass consumer electronic product Ala flat screen TVs… feels like they’re headed that way.

    The other note about TSLA is they had a $600M gain on bitcoin and another $700M of regulatory credits (100% margin). These may disappear going forward and a big hunk of profits. Stay tuned..

    • Oldguy says:

      True about TSLA, but they are a meme stock, TSLA really crapped the bed during this last earnings but the TSLA bros still lined up to buy. I’m with Wolf on this, unless something changes, TSLA has a long way to fall.

      • Reddog says:

        TSDD for those of you playing at home.

        2x double leverage negative Tesla stock

        • ShortTLT says:

          I don’t understand single-stock ETFs. Why not just buy puts?

        • 1234 says:

          Those leveraged ETFs or ETNs or whatever they are are a likely way to lose money. The stock would probably have to decline at a moderate pace, not just slowly, for the holder to break even, due to decay of the options used, or however it works. So don’t buy and hold, for anyone inclined to gamble.

  23. Glen says:

    Fortunately for Tesla in the US, BYD and other Chinese EV makers have massive tariffs. Real free markets of course don’t exist and tariffs and some of protectionism is necessary but not to that degree. Obviously the US is struggling to come to terms with having an economic peer which it ironically created and now wants to somehow control. Good luck with that.

  24. WB says:

    Hybrids remain the way to go, preferrentially ones that can use flex fuels…

    One reason I keep my still around…

  25. Gen Z says:

    Nobody really sees vital news of Toyota’s founders doing controversial things these days, or getting politically involved into the largest economy that it mirrors the merger of oligarch and state.

    Another reason I will never buy a Tesla, even if I got it for free, and whoever buys a Tesla and claim that they have democratic or liberal values are contradicting themselves.

  26. Glenn says:

    After a short career at an unspecified “ratings company” or as I call them Identity Corrales I’m curious what the further breakdown is on this. You’ve got Tolerant Left Tech in the north and Bleeding Hollywood in the south. Is there a demographic drive here or are we seeing a saturation of the market developing?

    • Wolf Richter says:

      There is another complexity. The Model Y is still a huge #1 bestseller, though its sales dipped a little. Cybertruck sales are rising but from a small number. What has plunged were the sales of California’s #2 bestseller, the Model 3. There could be a variety of reasons for that.

      So the question is: how many more Model Ys could Tesla have sold if Musk had remained just a quirky CEO who’s paying attention to the company?

  27. Not Wolf says:

    Just noticed the Tesla showroom here in town still has the same 9 new Cybertrucks sitting on the lot for the past 3 weeks now. I’m curious how this works across a wider geographical area with storing unsold vehicles

  28. Jim says:

    Wow, 100% in line with the media establishment “Elon bad” line. Surprising y’all are so monochromatic.

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