The used-vehicle pipeline is messed up for years to come.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Used vehicle prices – retail and wholesale – had performed a historic 50%-plus price spike between mid-2020 through mid-2022 when consumers were suddenly willing to pay whatever; dealers saw it and jacked up their prices. And knowing that they could extract record profits from those bedazzled consumers no matter what the price, dealers were willing to pay whatever at auctions to replenish their inventory. But starting in 2022, consumers gradually came to, and dealers had to respond. What followed was a historic plunge in used vehicle prices, both retail and wholesale, giving up about half of the price spike.
The CPI for used vehicle plunged by 20% from the peak, thereby giving up 57% of the 2020-2022 price spike. In 2022, when this plunge began, used-vehicle CPI weighed about 5% of core CPI. So that plunge contributed substantially to the “deceleration” of core CPI (deceleration = prices still rise but more slowly).
In trying to see where inflation is going, we’ve been watching this phenomenon carefully, knowing that used vehicle prices cannot plunge forever. And over the past few months, we saw sign after sign after sign from the wholesale side that they’d stopped plunging, then confirmed on the retail side by the September used-vehicle CPI which suddenly ticked up, after plunging for months. And that uptick, rather than a plunge, was in part why core CPI re-accelerated month-to-month for the third month in a row.
And there are more signs that the price plunge is over, that the dynamics in the used-vehicle market are tightening.
Used-vehicle retail inventory fell further.
Retail inventory of used vehicles at the start of October dipped to 2.15 million units, well below the 2019 range of 2.8 million to 3.0 million vehicles, and about 27% below September 2019, according to data from Cox Automotive today.
Supply to the used vehicle market of 2-to-3-year-old vehicles comes largely from rental fleets that take units out of service, lease returns when 2 or 3-year leases mature, and regular trade-ins. But this supply pipeline was severely disrupted at the beginning of the pipeline by the new-vehicle production cuts due to the semiconductor shortages. From Q2 2021 through Q1 2023, automakers sold 6 million fewer new vehicles than over the same period before the pandemic. These 6 million units didn’t go into the pipeline toward the used vehicle market and are now not coming out at the other end.
So in terms of future retail prices, this is not a good inventory situation. Dealers will be motivated to bid up auction prices to replenish their tight inventories, and then try to pass those higher prices on to consumers.
Wholesale prices in the first half of October.
Adjusted for seasonality, mix, and mileage, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of vehicle sold at auction, inched up in the first half of October, and if that holds for the rest of October, the index would be roughly stable for the third month in a row, after jumping in the two months before.
That left it down 2.8% from the whole month of October last year, the smallest year-over-year decline in 18 months. The index is now flat with January 2024. So it looks like the plunge has stopped.
Not seasonally adjusted, the index fell in the first half of October, but prices normally fall in October, and the drop so far was less than the normal drop in October. This whittled down the year-over-year drop to just 3.5%, from a 4.9% year-over-year drop in September, and from double-digit drops earlier in 2024.
“We have maintained the belief that wholesale depreciation will be a bit muted in the future, and that’s what we are seeing in the first 15 days of October,” Manheim said in the report. Manheim runs about 8 million vehicles a year through its auctions.
Used-vehicle retail listing prices.
The average listing price of used vehicles for sale at dealers also spiked during the 2020-2022 era and then started skidding lower. But in 2024, it has been fairly steady just above $25,000, including the uptick in September, according to data from Cox Automotive:
The first sign this is feeding into CPI.
The CPI for used vehicles, after plunging for months, did a U-turn in September and rose 0.3% from August, seasonally adjusted.
This month-to-month rise reduced the year-over-year drop by half, to -5.1%, from -10% in each of the prior three months.
From the data we have, it seems the plunge of the used vehicle CPI that was a big factor in the “deceleration” of core CPI has run its course. The pricing dynamics are normalizing, but inventories are tight, demand is solid, and increases in the used-vehicle CPI going forward would support a further re-acceleration of core CPI.
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Must be 4D chess that FED and Pow Pow is playing…cut 50 basis points so finance rates at 60 to 72 months are slightly lower will somehow lower or keep inflation on a deceleration trend when more people will be able to be buy, driving up prices…ha..good one, is this another point they are going to ignore and still hope for the best come during next month’s rate cut decision or did these people just step into the dodo they created? I know couple of them are coming out to say pause on cut…let’s see..
Wonder of this reversal would still happen if they didn’t cut ot just cut 25 basis points..
Will the fleet leasing market ever recover?
Just for conversation: the premium used car, 3 or 4 years old, well maintained, 50K to 70K miles, depends on someone trading it in for a new car. Why do people do that? There is no difference in reliability, in fact new cars often have issues that will have been addressed in the slightly older car.
Would they replace their toilet after 3 years?
More visitors have sat there than in the host’s driver seat.
To humor, or lure, these folks, the manufacturers keep making small, pointless, but visible changes in the exterior to distinguish this year’s model from last year’s. The exterior lights are a favorite plaything. The budget change is just a different, bigger lens. The real deal is a light bar that wraps around the fender.
As for four exhausts, actually just four exhaust tips, on a four cylinder car…
My wife’s father buys a new car pretty much every year or sometimes every two years. I haven’t seen him drive the same car for more than two years.
He recently bought a Tesla. He says he really likes it but we’ll see. I’m not sure why ge does it but my wife says he’s done that as far back as she can remember.
Elon musk has turned Tesla into crap. It drives fine but I would nit be caught dead supporting musk in anything he does ever again . He is a traitor to this country and will go down in history as one of the biggest scammers ever. Cryptocurrency fakes big bulletproof suv , holes in the ground in la , mars promises , all a joke to get people to invest with him and give him money
Lol so you were swindled?
By Elon or Biden?
Here’s to hoping Elon goes down for fraud on this FSD BS he’s been pulling for a decade
Musk, Donald. I see darkness.
To each his own. I’m sure the astronauts were glad to get home.
Space travel may never become routine but Space X is getting close. This impressive company with its enthusiastic engineers gives me hope for our country.
Jrm,
If you apply that logic you won’t be able to buy almost anything from any company. While they might not have big personalities like Musk, they take actions that are typically very selfish. American automakers, companies like proctor and gamble, most of the telephone services company. Most companies are just smart enough and realize being political is mostly anti maximizing profit.
“If you apply that logic you won’t be able to buy almost anything from any company.”
This is absolute nonsense. “That logic” doesn’t mean never buying anything from any company whose corporate ethics don’t match our own; that would of course be impossible. But we easily can, and do, draw bright ethical lines somewhere, and refuse to trade with those who cross them. That is quite literally how boycotts work, for example. (Boycotts don’t always work, but I–and you as well–can easily think of some major companies who wish they’d never heard the word.)
“Fsd bs?” I was at a mall at tysons corner and a tesla came driving up human-less to pick up it’s owner that summoned it. That it crazy.
No legacy auto company would have even attempted to try to do all this stuff. They’ve had years to catch up to Tesla but nope. Software sucks in them, huge recalls, etc.
Waymo has been driving paying customers around without driver for over a year, including in San Francisco, where the Waymos are everywhere, and where traffic and driving conditions are really tough, including a gazillion pedestrians and bicyclists. They work great. For passengers, they cost about the same as an Uber since you don’t have to tip because there’s no driver to tip. And the vehicles are Jaguars, and passengers love them. Getting a ride in a Waymo is now one more reason for tourists to visit SF. Tesla is so far behind in autonomous driving, it’s no longer funny.
I get that sentiment. I really do. However, their charging network is superior to other offerings and he drives his Tesla to Mexico (from Las Vegas) about once a month to pick up medication. There’s a lot of open road between Vegas and Mexico so I’m sure he appreciates having a reliable charging network that he knows will be maintained.
sounds like someone didn’t get their way politically and is butt hurt.
Sounds like you’re a hater of free speech?
I don’t hate free speech….just the roughly 10 years I was forced to go to Bible school….that I remember.
As long as THAT doesn’t happen again, I can easily avoid/ignore anything anyone says.
No, no, you’re missing the point. My neighbors complain that they’re still driving their 5 year old Benz!!!! They’ve been WAITING for new cars to drop in prices so they can upgrade because “I don’t feel like overpaying right now, things are crazy.”
So now, they get slightly more for their trade-in if they should so choose to go make a deal on a NEW car.
Meanwhile, I stare at my Hondas parked outside wondering “Can they go another 130K?” The answer is yes.
One may admire Musk’s management if SpaceX while at the same time deplore his management of Tesla and X nee Twitter. With the latter he made his personal brand toxic to his consumer base, which is a bit of a head scratcher.
Unless one considers that maybe power > money, Tesla is facing extinction as the legacy automakers and China have caught up, and the real money in space is from the defense industry, which does best when the Republicans are in charge. X was an epic fail.
It’s a global car market, so long term I think cars will be a bit deflationary. Even though the legacy have a bit of protection/subsidies in this country, they compete world wide including markets without such advantages. Used EVs are dirt cheap if they qualify for rebates and tax credits, as they depreciated hard.
Hey my Honda Accord is at 236,000 miles and run runs splendidly. Wife’s been trying to get me to buy a new car but past time I went the salesmen said they weren’t taking orders and that I’d have to buy from what they had on the lot. I said, “If I’m spending $55,000 on a new car I’ll be getting it exactly how I want it.”
I now realize that perhaps those salesmen were lying and gad I gone inside I may have been able to get what I wanted. Shhhh…don’t tell my wife that though.
@Nick just like the people that sell oil changes tell you that you need to change the oil every 3K miles the people that sell cars want to sell (or lease) you a new car every 3 years. I have three SUVs and a Porsche and all are over ten years old and all have over 100K miles. I change the oil every 9K or every two years I don’t put a ton of miles on my 1996 Landcruiser or 1997 Defender so I usually end up changing the oil every two years).
The guy who wrote this article knows nothing about running a dealership. Running a dealership and understanding the market to be a successful dealership easily takes a decade worth of experience. Dealerships didn’t jack their prices up because the knew the consumer would pay whatever for used cars. Their was a huge used car shortage that was mounting month after month because the demand for used cars because new car inventory was becoming extremely scarce because of the chip shortage and the OEM’s inability to make new vehicles. It caused a huge drop of supply for used cars while the demand increased. Very simple economics of why the prices went up.
Please make sure you are educated about a specific market because you write a completely inaccurate piece like this. Your making yourself sound like a fool to anyone who knows anything about the vehicle market.
Andy,
just upfront: I ran a big Ford store for a decade, you idiot. And I still have dealer friends in the business, and they were talking about this stuff as it developed in total amazement — how they were able to hike prices, and go to the auction, hold their noses and overpay, and then sell those vehicles at even higher prices because they knew they could. Something massive had changed. Dealer profit margins exploded. The industry never ever had it this good. Car buyers had just gone nuts with free money and were willing to pay whatever, and dealers were milking them.
There was no used-vehicle shortage, you ignorant card-carrying moron. Look at the FIRST chart. Used vehicle inventory during the worst months in 2020-2022 was higher than it is now.
But there was a NEW-vehicle shortage, you ignorant goofball. And that new-vehicle shortage back then is now migrating into the used inventory.
I read Andy’s comment and saw the thick black outline that meant Wolf had replied to him. My heart leapt with anticipation. I was not disappointed.
Hey my Honda Accord is at 236,000 miles and run runs splendidly. Wife’s been trying to get me to buy a new car but past time I went the salesmen said they weren’t taking orders and that I’d have to buy from what they had on the lot. I said, “If I’m spending $55,000 on a new car I’ll be getting it exactly how I want it.”
I now realize that perhaps those salesmen were lying and gad I gone inside I may have been able to get what I wanted. Shhhh…don’t tell my wife that though.
>oil changes every 3k
My service advisor told me I should do my oil every 5k and oil filter every 10k, even though he knows I do my own oil. But he also knows I’m making about 50hp over stock and I want this car to last forever.
I’ve been following his advice. To me its a small investment in the longevity of my car – oil is $20 for a 5qt jug and $7 for the oil filter.
Probably same logic as for those changing iPhone every year. I was asking a guy like that. He did not give a straight logical answer. But between the lines like: “Because I’m the best and deserve it”.
Wait, are you suggesting dropping a thousand plus for “AI” and Titanium casing isn’t worth it and I will survive with the iPhone 13? Say it isn’t so.
Glen – …how much of our retail economy is based on ‘fixing’ (replacing) something that ain’t broke (…ain’t maintained or simply wretched ostentation? Those are related, but different conversations…)?
may we all find a better day.
Hey without those folks trading in cars I’d never be able to find heavily depreciated luxury or exotics to buy.
Can I buy new? Sure but the thought of losing 50 150k in 3-4 years just rubs me the wrong way. We need these people it helps the market move.
Found my new to me x5m for the family last month.
AGREE completely K:
After really having to have new vehicles for my work, sometimes driving 2500 miles PER WEEK,,, I am now firmly in the find the older ones with low miles on them, rehab them carefully and thoroughly, and drive them for eva!
Currently, ’01 pick up w 67K and ’03 LeSabre w 62K, and only challenge is that they already have too much electronics I don’t need and don’t want…
Seriously regret selling the ’84 Chevy 3/4T with only 230K miles,,, IOW, barely broken in,,LOL
I’ve owned 2 2012 Honda Accords since 2015 with no thought of replacing them. Last year bought a 1996 Chevy Cheyenne in good shape with fantastic bones. By the time I have it the way I want it I will be into it for less than 10 grand. I would not own a new truck, period. I can actually roll the window down and lean my arm out the window due to no side air bags. I prefer the way it looks to the new Transformer look all the trucks now have.
Shhhh… I buy those used cars. I Look for meticulous maintenance record single owner. Good chunk of depreciation paid for and I can take them with basics maintenance for min 7-10 years
I can tell you exactly why someone trades in a nice 50-70k car: the warranty. These new cars with sensor this and assistance that have so many little electronic parts that are $500-$1000 to get replaced. People don’t have time or energy to deal with it. So they trade in, it gets Certified Used on the dealers lot, and everyone is happy. Some people want a $50k car for $28k certified, others want a new $50k car. Then there are those who take on a ten year old 150k mile former luxury car with no warranty at all.. let’s call them adventurous.
Maybe it’s similar to a woman’s nagging. She was fine for the first few years then for some mysterious reason she begins to nag and nitpick. So she gets traded in for a the newer model…with the light bar that wraps around her fenders.
Your wife’s a lucky women.
He has more than one?
Nick,
This makes sense in some cases. My friend in LA does Tesla lease. Insurance is a good deal with it and she needs a car for clients that looks good. Plus she can write everything off. Found a lot of Uber / Lyft drivers do similar things as couldn’t understand when in Nashville while all on them had to really nice cars, then I asked.
“As for four exhausts, actually just four exhaust tips, on a four cylinder car…”
Some of them are on V6s, so technically a dual exhaust… but why did the tip need to further split into two after the resonator…?
But yes, plenty of turbo4s these days with fake quad exuast, and have you noticed all the fake exhaust tips in general? MB seems to be the worst offender here.
My car is a turbo4, and the stock exhaust split off to two tips at the end. When I redid the exhaust, I got rid of that and just put in a 3″ straightpipe, resonator, and ONE exhaust tip. Still moving more air vs stock.
hmm, styling and/or an approach to EPA noise-emission testing….
may we all find a better day.
If you live in a huge city the highways are really dangerous to break down on.
So IMO it’s either best to maintain your 7-10 year old low to mid lifetime mileage car OR go trade in any car, suv over 175,000 miles. Just for dependability.
If you live in rural or small to mid size cities, it’s not such a big deal to break down.
Also larger cities are 24/7, you go to bed, but our cities never sleep. You never know what time you will be out at. Reliability is really important.
My name has been on the CT list since the announcement 3 or 5 years back (I forget). I was socking away cash to buy it for those years. I recently pulled the trigger and decided not to buy a CT. Poor build quality, very high insurance, lack of charging infrastructure in non-urban areas, range 25% that what was promised 5 years ago. The final straw was when Tesla bricked the 2 CT’s in Chechnya over the network. I decided I didn’t want to spend $80k on a car and not really own anything except a web app on wheels. I Canceled my reservation and Tesla refunded my $100 that very day.
I traded my Rave 4 of a new Toyota because I wanted something a little more plush, a little nicer riding, a little quieter, a little roomier…an old mans car. It’s a hybrid and gets 40 mpg in actual driving (pretty good for a 4100 pound ICE car). Fill up the tank and I have 625 miles of range.
I think I got good value for my 5 year old Rav4 on the trade about 60% of it’s original purchase price. At least I was happy with it. The “car nut guy” on Youtube did a review of what I bought and called it a parts bin car. Nothing new in it. Long matured engine, drive train and suspension.
Spent about 1/3 of what I had saved for the CT. My next car after this one…if there is a next car, will probably be an EV.
Just an anecdote
How much of it is lease returns?
I think you reversed the way vehicle models usually progress. The earlier model years may have unforeseen issues. As the model line ages the manufacturer is able to correct those issues, thus increasing reliability as the platform ages.
Used vehicle market has never been right since “cash for clunkers”! Took a lot of descent used vehicles from even being purchased or broke down into parts. truly a waste!
Agreed. One of my big laments to this day.
And under whose Presidency did that occur? Oh that’s right, the first Marxist, Barry.
The cash-for-clunkers bill was passed in the House by a 316-109 bipartisan vote. There isn’t much these days that gets passed in the House with this kind of majority.
Third the sentiment…
may we all find a better day.
Nobody misses the garbage Dodge Durango or Explorer V8s that were “Clunked”, but I remember seeing Corvettes, big block Suburbans, and pre-1998 Ford 250s and 350s ready to be euthanized. Cool vehicles that someone would keep on the road even now.
You may not like the models, but cash for clunkers destroyed a whole generation of functional low-priced vehicles that people on a tight budget typically bought, including students. Suddenly those vehicles were gone. And they had to buy something more expensive that they couldn’t really afford. It was an insidious anti-poor policy.
But dealers made a lot of money off it.
Keeping up with the joneses is Americas social equivalent to an anti poor policy.
And they had to buy something more expensive that they couldn’t really afford. It was an insidious anti-poor policy.
And you don’t think the government pushing EV’s is an anti-poor policy?? The EV king himself. Who’s the genius here?
Gulag
Bullshit. EVs are an OPTION that people can buy if they want to — that’s the American way, a manufacture offers people something, and if they WANT to buy, they buy it. EV makers have cut prices in a big way over the past two years, and they’re eating market share from ICE vehicles, because more and more Americans WANT to buy an EV, and have the option to buy EVs from lots of automakers.
But when you destroy the lowest end of the used vehicle inventory, you’re TAKING OPTIONS AWAY from people who wanted to buy these vehicles. Taking options away from people (by destroying cheap cars) is the opposite of offering people something IN ADDITION that they can buy if they want to (EVs).
Having CHOICES is the American way. Has the anti-EV bullshit virus turned your brain to mush?
Well, personally I didn’t want to buy a used EV but financially, I felt I had to go EV in the used market. 50% of list was subsidized by credits and rebates, I get free electric from work, and the decrease in maintenance costs helps make it far cheaper to operate.
After buying it, it’s a perfect commuter car. I can see easily how it will overtake ice, either as the commuter car workhorse in a phev/ice family fleet or with increases in range/recharge tech, because it’s cost benefits and government subsidies to get emissions down.
Wolf – I think the comment on EV’s and policy is likely based on many government regulations that will phase out ICE’s
Regardless if the basis (or even end result) is right or wrong, it is a policy based approach that technically removes choice.
So yes, many consumer want to buy EV’s but many more will have to buy a hybrid or EV. You can argue if that is the better solution till blue I. The face, but doesn’t negate it’s a loss of choice.
I still don’t understand the semiconductor shortage, which affected the auto industry so severely. Usually capitalism performs better than that. One of the liabilities of a “just in time” economy is that there is little redundancy built into the system. Backups are seldom to nonexistent. Perhaps there was an earthquake affecting a fab plant or two and I missed the news. If so, that should show them that a monopoly supplier situation is not to be desired …
The supply chain chaos of the pandemic taught a lot of business decision-makers a lot of lessons. And supply chains are being reworked. Everyone saw how vulnerable the US system was to being strangled by supply chain disruptions — all around, not just semiconductors.
Despite businesses talking at length (and even being legally required to have?) about their business continuity models.
Yet they failed at the first hurdle. No pandemic modelling?
I was certain I remember being queried about this with a previous employer and WFH in the mid 00s, when one of the other pandemic scares was doing the rounds (bird flu?)
you misunderstood. The dependence of nearly all supply chains on just one country, China, made clear that China could shut down US businesses and the economy if it wants to. That was the lesson that was learned. Supply chains have to be more diversified, that was the lesson. This is a slow process to address, but it’s already having a big impact.
Two reasons: quite quickly over five years or so, chips were in all kinds of items not previously using them. Sis has newish ‘smart’ fridge that was getting too cold in back. Tech visits, says its the board, a bunch of chips, and only answer is new board. All kinds of toys, hobby things, also have them, like drones.
Second and maybe more important. The smart phone, aka the cell phone is basically a bunch of chips plus a screen. The big guys Apple and Samsung know that chips are not just an add on, they are mission critical and they made sure of their supply before the pandemic.
Just an opinion, they may have a closer relationship with the phone cos than with the auto cos. TSMC builds custom chips designed by Apple for its computers, and its phones that increasingly act like computers. The two are kind of joint venture partners, so if chips need to be rationed…
Taleb was pointing out problems with fragility before the pandemic. Basically, efficiency isn’t free money. There are tradeoffs.
None of this was that surprising, just funny how a bunch of overpaid managers herded and got hit by chaos. Happens in capitalism all the time.
Nate, my friend, you just bowled a three-hundred game…
may we all find a better day.
~ 150 > 210 on the index over ~ 5 years.
~ 7% annual inflation in used cars for 5yrs.
I’d say they’ll flip flop up and down another year or two and remain around 210, giving a ~ 5% annual inflation for 7yrs average.
Going on trend lines visible.
BTFD.
In the last 3Y peoples bought 8/10 millions less brand new cars (chips
shortages) and less 8/10 millions houses (transactions are dead). When the
intermittent fasting will be over the economy will thrive.
Here is the one thing that will offset used car prices stabilizing. It will be heavy new car incentives and high days supply of new vehicles.
Yes, but… Automakers jacked up their MSRPs for each model year, and a big part of those incentives are just rolling back some of the MSRP increases.
Average incentives per vehicle sold in September was $3,047, or 6.2% of MSRP, according to J.D. Power estimates. Leasing, about 22% of retail sales, drove some of the incentive spending to get to discounted lease payments.
But during periods in 2019, as inventories were piling up, incentives ran over 10% of MSRP. To really get sales going, automakers should roll back some of their MSRP increases. But they’re not doing that. In their earnings calls, they’re all saying that they’re very disciplined and protecting their profit margins, which is what Wall Street craves. So the new vehicle CPI barely came down and in September ticked up again:
Hurricane Helene and Milton totaled a lot of cars. This will create demand in the used and new car market temporarily. The extra travel also caused increased accidents.
Wonder how inflation in auto repairs and such will influence it. Doesn’t take much at all to “total” a car these days. I need a new bumper and tailgate with no other damage and it was 8K to fit($500 for me). Part of this could be minimized but seems there is a desire for this to happen as I am sure a “totalled” car can be auctioned and fixed much cheaper, especially in a state where labor isn’t $75/hr for fairly simple work.
FYI, when an insurance company “totals” a vehicle and sells it at a salvage auction, the vehicle will have a salvage title for the rest of its life in the US.
There is a big international trade where companies buy totaled recent-model-year vehicles at the auctions, ship them to cheap labor-countries, such as in Central Asia, repair them there with cheap labor and Chinese parts, and sell them in the Middle East or in the Gulf states, for example. Those vehicles will have local documents as needed, and not a salvage title, and whether the airbags work or not is probably not a primary concern. I think this is a pretty good deal.
I bought a used Mazda 3 last year – Carvana couldn’t sell this car & auctioned it to a small dealer from where I got it. In doing my research, I googled the VIN & found it offered for sale in an eastern European country that offered to import cars from the US. I’m wondering if companies like this are also putting a floor on prices?
I have read that new cars produced after covid tend to be less reliable than before. Any thoughts?
Good question!
I have no data on quality issues, and the customer satisfaction surveys have not shown any decline in quality. People are always bitching about the electronic interfaces in a modern vehicle – doesn’t work, can’t figure out how to use, does weird stuff, etc. But that’s been going on for many years. Electronic interfaces have been the biggest quality sore-point for many years.
I’m not a fan of all the new electronic “upgrades” I see in new cars. Things like all the car controls being on a screen instead of knobs and buttons. Or the side mirrors that automatically fold in. That’s just something unnecessary that can now break and require fixing. And I’m really not a fan of push start cars. My wife leaves her key fob in the car when she comes home. I’m afraid she’s either going to leave the key in the car when she goes out and has her car stolen or she’s going to come home and leave the car on and kill us all in out sleep from carbon monoxide poisoning. I don’t get why having a key is so inconvenient.
Andy, to each their own. I bought a new Model Y a couple months ago. Upgraded from an early 2010s Corolla. Anecdotally, I’m still punch drunk from the upgrade and am loving all the electronic “upgrades.” Folding mirrors in a large metro? Little bit of extra piece of mind. Try out a Tesla, no push to start. No key. Perhaps wife is less likely to leave her cell phone or purse in the car. Phone acts as a key. Very cool tech and has been amazing for me as a commuter car. Did a 1,000-mile round trip road trip through the US Southeast and into central Appalachia. Only issue was a flat tire from a nail. Patched her up myself and good as new. Oh, and no carbon monoxide concerns with Tessie ◡̈
How can anyone know? Cars made since covid haven’t been around long enough.
You can judge the reliability of e.g. a 9th gen Civic because they’ve been around for so long, and you see so many of them still on the road.
Used vehicles make more sense if you buy 1-on-1 from prospective owners of the cars themselves. If you go to a dealer, the suitability of the deal is usually not too great.
Bit in todays Globe and M saying Stellantis CEO Tavares should be removed no matter if his contract says 2 more years. The author wonders why is he in Europe right now.
Stellantis needs to do radical surgery, including spinning off their US brands so that someone can run them who knows how to sell big pickups and SUVs in the US. These European executives are clueless.
Stellantis dealers inventory are reaching insane levels. 200 days sale for RAM and 150 for Jeep . They will start Firesales before year end, slashing prices for new cars which will pressure used car prices even lower
They told analysts that they will be disciplined. Instead of dumping trucks in a fire sale, they have cut production to maintain their profit margins. These legacy automakers are in absolutely no mood to cut prices; they’ll cut production first and foremost. They will not cut prices on trucks unless they’re forced to by competition. And since all US ICE truck makers are doing the same thing, there is no price competition.
Wolf, dealers are filled with unsold brand new “2024” cars. They have until December to unload this inventory. This is like perishable food. It will be worthless in 2025. I would argue that until new cars inventory is drastically reduced, you can’t rule out that used car prices will continue to tank, bringing down CPI. Eventually even new car prices will bring down CPI too.
‘This is like perishable food. It will be worthless in 2025.’
Come on.
“They have until December to unload this inventory.”
No, they can sell them whenever they can. The 2025 model year production of pickups from Ford and Ram won’t even start until November. And those 2025 model-year units will trickle out at first. Major quantities won’t arrive at dealers until sometime next year. Until then, 2024 trucks will be all that dealers have on the lot. A year from now, a 2024 truck will be stale, but it won’t be “worthless.” That $70,000 truck will be “$5,000 worth less” than today, maybe.
I agree that used vehicles won’t tank further. That’s what this article was all about. But that’s separate from the model-year changeover.
Perishable food? What planet do you live on? Leftover vehicles are like hitting the jackpot, at least for my simple mind. I bought a brand new car that was “3 years old” meaning it was a model year 2012, but I bought it in 2015. It was cheaper than the used, certified pre owned versions.
I bought a brand new motorcycle that was “4 years old” meaning it was a model year 2015, but I bought in 2019. 65% off MSRP when compared to the current year model at the time. Same exact bikes minus an LED headlight (whooptie doo, not a deal breaker).
I’ve never liked Jeeps, I don’t trust their reliability. But, I keep tabs on the Grand Cherokee because if Stellantis gets crazy enough, I might get one for 50% MSRP. I can overlook a few things if I get a deep discount.
Not strictly on the topic, but just read some data that many here were asking about.
According to Electrek EV publication, Tesla worked thru the initial backlog of Cybertruck reservations. It says that now you can buy the truck directly without any reservation, with few weeks delivery.
Over 1 million reservation produced 25k sales.
So, the publication states that under 3% of these reservations have converted so far to sales.
Still looking for the new driver car. I have the choice of a much older, high mileage car (> 7 years, > 90K miles) at under $15K… or a newer car at $15K to $20K (still > 4 years, > 50K miles). Probably going with the newer car due to the safety features and more confidence in the reliability.
Getting close to end of year. So I see the used heavy duty
trucks going up in price. Have the cash, just can’t bring myself to pay
the prices they are asking.
The “chip shortage” that killed the auto production was basically self induced by the auto manufacturers. New chip lead times are in the range of 6 to 18 months, depending on the situation. When the pandemic hit and everything shut down at first, the manufacturers scaled way back on their parts and chip orders. After a few months, consumers started buying big again. The manufacturers tried to ramp up their orders again, but had lost their position in the order queue and had to wait till an open chip production slot was available. These open slot leadtimes had also stretched out longer in the meantime.
Hey Wolf – I think it would be interesting to take a look at domestic car production and international car imports over the same period. Covid not only messed with shipping, but there were component part shortages that didn’t really show up until H2, 2021, when domestic car production took a 2nd dip (after the Q2, 2020 primary dip) and recorded their lowest production levels in 30 years (which is as far back as my data goes). I don’t know an easy way to aggregate new and used car sales – and see how that total has changed over the last four years, but am assuming that at least part of the spike in used car prices was due to shortage of new car inventory at the dealers.
I have a 2022 Silverado LTZ $65k purchased new. It has had 8 problems in 16k miles. It has left me on the side of the road and been towed twice. The roof leaked and it smells like mildew. If the flipper on the steering wheel is bumped, it will take off from a dead stop, even if the truck was turn off and then restarted. I almost ran over my grandkids in the u turn pick up at school. When the steer wheel is turn to the left the flipper that activates cruise is easily bumped. After complaining for two years, I got a phone call today from GM. I was told they are looking into it. The dealership said in writing “works as designed”. If you don’t believe me, read the Edmunds review on a 2024 Silverado. It said, the test truck tried to take off in heavy traffic, but the driver was able to get on the brake in time.