Cybertruck production ramping up, starting to show up in the numbers (a little). Long way to go.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Tesla’s deliveries across the globe in Q3 rose by 4.3% from Q2 and by 6.4% year-over-year, to 462,890 vehicles, its best Q3 ever, but still behind Q1 and Q4 2023 (red in the chart).
Over the three quarters of the year, Tesla’s delivered 1.294 million vehicles, down by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2023, which had been a record. Compared to the same period in 2022, deliveries were up by 42%.
To eke past its 2023 deliveries record (1.809 million), as Elon Must predicted Tesla would do, it will have to deliver a record 515,000 vehicles in Q4, which would be up by 6% from the record in Q4 2023. So now, Tesla is like some of the big US legacy automakers, where beating 2023 by a few units would be an accomplishment? This year is when Tesla’s high-growth story shattered, due to the plunge in Q1 and the insufficient bounce in Q2.
Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y rose by 4.2% from Q2 and by 5.0% year-over-year to 439,975 vehicles, also the best Q3 ever, but behind Q1 and Q4 2023 (blue in the chart above).
The Model Y was the #2 bestselling vehicle in the US, only a hair behind the Toyota RAV4 and ahead of the Ford F-150 in Q2, according to Experian’s report on vehicle registrations.
Total EV sales by all automakers reached a record market share of 9% in Q2. Despite all this nonsense in the media about flagging EV demand, EV sales are growing and are eating share from ICE vehicle sales. It’s just that Tesla’s share of the US EV market has been dropping and is nearing 50%, as other big players have surged.
The Cybertruck is showing up in the figures ever so slowly as Tesla is trying to ramp up production amid numerous challenges. Deliveries of “Other Models” – the Cybertruck, the Model S, and the Model X – rose by 6.3% from the prior quarter and by 43.4% year over year to 22,915 vehicles, also the best Q3 ever, but a few units behind Q4 2024 (green in the chart above).
Tesla said last year that it expects to be able to ramp Cybertruck production to 250,000 units in 2025. Musk said that the Cybertruck will not be material to Tesla’s financials until 2025 or beyond. In April, Tesla reached a milestone: production of 1,000 units a week, or an annual run rate of 50,000 units. So a long way to go to get significant production.
In China, which accounts for about one-third of Tesla’s deliveries, the company has run into very tough competition from domestic EV makers, especially BYD, and a price war has broken out. In response, Tesla introduced discounts on some paint options, 0% financing plans, insurance deals, and other incentives, which helped reanimate sales in China, where sales increased in July and August, after two quarters of declines, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), cited by Reuters.
In California, Tesla’s largest market in the US, sales have gotten crushed for the four quarters through Q2, even as other EV sales have soared, based on registrations reported by the California auto dealer association CNCDA in July, which caused us to speculate that many Californian EV buyers have had it with Musk’s barrage of BS about California.
Per new vehicle registrations in Q2, that kind of trend in California cannot be helpful to Tesla’s overall numbers. We’ll update this when the CNCDA releases the Q3 figures later this month:
- Tesla: -24% year-over-year, to 52,211 vehicles.
- Non-Tesla EVs: +45% year-over-year, to 49,232 vehicles
The Model Y was still by far the #1 bestseller in California in Q2, ahead of the Toyota RAV4. But sales plunged 15% year-over-year to 36,343 vehicles. So Q3 will be interesting:
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I’m starting to see the Cyber trucks around Texas, some of them complete with wraps. I think some businesses are using them as rolling billboards like during the initial Hummer craze.
Hummer is exactly what I think of when I see them. Seems like a fad product.
Article should be required reading for the TSLA meme investor waiting to be thrilled by Elon’s next overhyped robo taxi event.
Unfortunately they won’t be a success in the UK or Europe because the roads are too small and you wouldn’t be able to park them anywhere.
Other than that stainless steel for cars, great!
Come back DeLorean all is forgiven!
“The Cybertruck is showing up in the figures ever so slowly as Tesla is trying to ramp up production amid numerous challenges. Deliveries of “Other Models” – the Cybertruck, the Model S, and the Model X – rose by 6.3% from the prior quarter and by 43.4% year over year to 22,915 vehicles, also the best Q3 ever, but a few units behind Q4 2024 (green in the chart above).”
Since I see more and more of them all over SoCal freeway, definitely looking forward to getting run over by one soon enough especially when I am on my bike splitting lane. The damage it can inflict with all those sharp angle and weight…at least I will be run over by the best in class…although all the giant trucks out there with massive battering ram grills do give it a run of its money on that front…
Only a narcissistic person where it is all about “look at me I’m special” could drive these. All the rest of the world can go to hell, me me me.
This is all about over-waste.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder but for me the Cybertruck is just an impractical eyesore. Surprised there is still demand but have to assume it runs out fairly quickly. I thought the Hummer was impractical but I also thought it was very cool looking and could see the appeal.
I see them everywhere now. Neighbor down the block now has one too. I’m staring to find them handsome, they’re growing on me. My wife thinks they’re hideous and look like the vehicles the Soviets rolled into Prague with in 1968. So no Cybertruck in our house. It’s another divisive thing that split this nation and families into two 🤣
“Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. This is more to it than just personal sensitivity to beauty.
It is more like setting a city on fire and then enjoying the fireworks from it. This just against the law. There is no law preventing such cars on roads, unfortunately.
Over the last couple of weeks, I have seen a noticeable number of Rivians on the road in Dallas. Before I had just seen one every now and then.
I’m also seeing more cybertrucks too, both in Dallas and in a smaller East Texas city. I don’t like to drive behind a cybertruck, though. Even in an SUV, they are impossible to see around. Worse than some of the old minivans.
Tesla has a marketing problem, STFU Elon!
Tesla only reports global deliveries, correct? I read that EU EV sales were down 44% in Q3 compared to 2023, wonder how Tesla fared.