Sales of EVs soar 56.7% in 2023 through Q3. Sales of vehicles with gasoline engines languish at +1.4%. The new registrations are out.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Tesla’s Model Y was the #2 bestseller in the US in 2023 through Q3, with a market share of 2.5% of all new light vehicles sold, according to registration data provided by Experian today.
The Ford F-150, the bestseller for eons, was again the #1 bestseller with a share of 3.0%. Toyota’s RAV4 was #3. Tesla’s Model 3 was the #10 bestseller, with a share of 1.4%, just behind the Toyota Corolla.
Share by automaker. In terms of new vehicle registrations by automaker, spread across all their brands: GM (Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and GMC) was #1, Toyota (Toyota, Lexus) was #2, and Ford (Ford, Lincoln) was #3. Tesla was #9 with a share of 4.2%.
| Share by Automaker, Registrations In 2023 through Q3 |
||
| 1 | GM | 16.9% |
| 2 | Toyota | 14.3% |
| 3 | Ford | 12.3% |
| 4 | Stellantis | 9.9% |
| 5 | Honda | 8.4% |
| 6 | Nissan | 6.7% |
| 7 | Hyundai | 5.6% |
| 8 | Kia | 5.3% |
| 9 | Tesla | 4.2% |
| 10 | Subaru | 4.0% |
| 11 | VW | 3.5% |
| 12 | BMW | 2.4% |
| 13 | Mazda | 2.3% |
| 14 | Daimler | 2.1% |
| 15 | Geely (Volvo) | 0.8% |
Sales of EVs Soar, sales of ICE vehicles languish. In 2023 through Q3, new registrations of pure EVs soared by 56.7% year-over-year, to nearly 900,000 (no hybrids included). The full year 2023 will the first year when EV sales will exceed 1 million (likely somewhere north of 1.1 million).
New registrations, % change, year-over-year:
- EVs: +56.7%
- Vehicles with gasoline engines: +1.4%
- Vehicles with diesel engines: -3.5%
- Hybrids (plug-in and non-plugin): +43.1%.
Among EV brands, it’s still Tesla v. All Others.
There are now 30 EV brands with registrations (not just announcements) in the US. Some are EV-only automakers, such as Tesla and Rivian. Others are legacy automakers trying to chase after Tesla. And for them it has been a slog with lots of setbacks. But little by little, those 29 non-Tesla brands combined are whittling away at Tesla’s share of the booming EV market.
Tesla’s market share among EV makers declined to 57.4% in 2023 through Q3, down from 65.4% in 2022, from 68.2% in 2021, from 79.4% in 2020, and from 100% when it first put its Model S on the road.
The share of the other 29 automakers combined rose to 42.6%.
Chevrolet was #2 with a share of 5.9%, on the strength of its old Bolt and Bolt EUV, which after the price cuts, have been selling very well, and 2023 is by far their best year ever with nearly 50,000 deliveries through Q3.
But earlier this year, GM announced that it would discontinue the Bolt and Bolt EUV by the end of this year, and that would be the end of the Bolt. Then in July, it did an about-face and announced that it wouldn’t be the end of the Bolt after all, that there would be a new Bolt sometime in the future based on its Ultium platform. But until the whenever-arrival of the future Bolt, there will be no Bolt at all, and GM will just abandon this lower-priced EV segment. The infinite wisdom of the US legacy automakers never ceases to astound.
Ford was #3 with a share of 5.5%, with its F-150 Lightning, its Mustang Mach-E compact SUV, and a retrofitted electric van, the E-Transit.
Ford and GM have encountered numerous problems, surprising problems, including Tesla’s price cuts, which nixed their dream of selling large numbers of overpriced EVs and making $20,000 on each of them. Now they have to go back to the drawing board to be able to compete.
But instead of going back to the drawing board and investing this cash in the development of EVs that can compete, they announced that they would incinerate billions of dollars on more share buybacks to prop up their shares. Like I said, the infinite wisdom of the US legacy automakers never ceases to astound.
Hyundai was #4 with a share of 4.8%.
Others: Rivian, the startup selling full-size pickups and SUVs whose deliveries soared by 136% year-over-year, jumped to #6 with a share of 3.5%, sandwiched between BMW (3.7%) and Mercedes-Benz (3.2%). Volkswagen was #8 with a share of 3.2%.
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US automotive already gave away the compact market(Chevy Cruze and such) and seem to be locking themselves into a high margin area that might become more competitive. I suppose they consider themselves too big to fail and the tax payers can bail them out of it goes sideways. They all have great gross profit numbers from the look of it right now however so all good it seems.
Nobody wants to buy a compact ICE car.
I do.
If I didn’t need the space in my SUV to haul equipment for work, I’d be trading down to something much smaller.
LOL!
Me too. I recently bought a BMW Z4 roadster. Sure, I bought it for “fun in the sun”, but it’s a “compact ICE car” and it gets fantastic gas mileage (even with your foot in it a bit).
I still have my SUV. Like you, I GOTTA have it.
I’m downsizing the house sooner than later which very likely means 2 car garage so the Z4 will have to go. But, it’s nice in the meantime.
Even then, those two spaces will have Japanese V8s parked there.
I like Tesla but it’s just not practical for us. Not here in flyover country.
BTW, the video introducing the cyber truck is very entertaining. Not buying one, but it’s a fun watch. YouTube it.
Congrats on your Z4 – those look FUN.
Me too. Nothing wrong with a compact ICE car. Many people still want them.
Halibut – I have a z4. So much fun driving around the island with the top down.
Amazing that they did for decades…then, magically, *poof*.
I kinda think there is a lot more going on than perpetual SUV/truck lust regardless of economic environment.
For one, the black arts of necro-financing doomed loans (“I can give you any monthly payment you want! Bwahaaahaaaa!!!”) artificially compresses monthly payments across models…by ignoring ultimate loan default history…whose risk has been dumped on ZIRP addled fixed income investors via ABS.
It isn’t just that tens of millions of Americans started hating cars.
“Nobody wants to buy a compact ICE car.”
What a pile of Bull Sh$t. I just bought one. They were the only cars moving off the lot about 20 miles out from DC. All those big gas guzzling monstrosities, with big price tags, 2000 of them were sitting there collecting dust. There was another one in Frederick, MD about 10 miles away with less mileage, and it was sold the same day that I got mine.
“nobody wants to buy a compact ICE car”
You do realise that there are people outside the US? That maybe live where compact cars are necessary due to small roads, parking spots etc?
BS
I see Honda Civics, Toyota Corollas, and little Kias and Hyundais everywhere.
Hard to comprehend people paying these prices.
Although I understand the need for transportation, people went completely insane with paying markups and committing to carloans at ridiculous rates.
Nothing wrong with being content with a used car that’s in good working order which doesn’t require a 1000$ monthly payment.
Instant gratification really is a phenomenon.
And I really wonder when it’ll become apparent that very few people can actually afford these 75.000$ trucks or fancy Teslas.
But I do see, read and hear sales of vehicles dropping off a cliff in and it makes me wonder what Q4 salesfigures will reveal.
Because as Wolf points out, these prices are just reflecting an insane amount of greed.
But actual discounts instead of markups mark a change in sentiment and competition is a healthy development.
Greed should be punished and I have no sympathy for greedy corporations, dealerships and lenders seeing lower profits.
You can buy a less fancy Tesla for less than $40k before tax credits, and in the low $30k range after tax credits.
You can buy a Bolt for less than $27k before tax credits, and for about $20k after tax credits.
The average transaction price of all new vehicles is $47k, and automakers will sell about 15.5 million of them this year. As you alluded to, a 4-door, 4×4, crew cab Ford truck is over $100k if you deck it out a little.
Americans love their cars and trucks. That’s the first thing people need to understand about the economy.
That’s all perfectly fine, Wolf.
But I’m in Ireland and all those numbers don’t really line up over here. Prices are much much higher and taxcredits aren’t as interesting at €3500 (max) for an EV.
Furthermore, you can’t deny that the US carmakers focused more on high-end luxury cars and trucks with ridiculous prices leading to a 20k profit as in your example.
Fortunately now I think that Chevy Bolts, Toyota Corollas etc are becoming in higher demand. The economic reality is calling for cars that are priced sub 30k.
Because a very large group of people just cannot afford a 40k or 70k car.
Germans, Dutch etc were also spending insane amounts on cars and I can tell you from real experience, that’s changed dramatically in the last 2 years.
Loving cars isn’t necessarily fueling an economy when people can barely make ends meet due to much higher cost of living, food&energy and most importantly, shelter.
Perhaps my perception versus your expertise isn’t aligning. Or perhaps, we’re both right.
More than half of households live in apartments or condos, so no chargers at home unless they run an extension cord from their units out to the parking garage or lot. Not very practical
Chargers have been and are being installed as amenities to attract tenants and buyers. New buildings already are planned with them as standard amenities. This has been going on for years, not new. Lots of residential buildings already have chargers, along with hotels, parking garages, etc.
Chargers are profit opportunity (upfront investment for years of yield from buying electricity at a lower price and selling at a higher price, and from fees).
Tesla showed a video of a Cybertruck outdragging a new Porsche 911—presumably a base model—while towing a similar 911.
The Cyberbeast, the big one (tri-motor), has an alleged 0-60 time of 2.6 seconds (is that possible?) and a quarter-mile time of under 11 seconds. It weighs 6843 lbs.
Musk bemuses me.
Comparing a combustion versus electric isn’t really apples and apples but good advertising, I suppose.
For me, the CyberTruck has been giving off DeLorean vibes for a long time (even before the smashed window demo…).
The thing even *looks* like a roid-ed up DeLorean.
1.21 Gigawatts!!!
1.21 Gigawatts, Marty?!!!!!
Musk has probably already hired Christopher Lloyd.
It does!
Thanks Cas127, now for some reason I can’t stop picturing Elon Musk as some sort of demented alternate timeline Biff.
Too bad the Cybertruck wasn’t less Back to the Future DeLorean, and more Nightrider Kitt.
A truck with this kind of performance is just nuts, imho. But it’s superb PR. Tesla never spends a dime on advertising. It just does this kind of stuff, and everyone shares the videos, and it’s on the front pages, and everyone knows about it. Tesla saves billions of dollars a year that way — that alone is a huge competitive advantage.
The bread-and-butter truck will be the base-ish rear-wheel drive version, when they finally build it in large enough numbers.
If I recall correctly, Musk early on declared that if he didn’t build the fastest production car and the SAFEST car in the world, he wouldn’t have been taked seriously. If only he’d get out of the culture wars. Sigh.
Agreed! Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make…and generate a lot of buzz in doing so.
Lots of new technology in this product as well… which further stretches their lead over Legacy Auto!!
“0-60 time of 2.6 seconds”
That’s literally dangerous. I’m sure the traction control system will neuter the electric motors from accelerating that quickly.
It used to be that only performance enthusiasts had cars with that kind of power, and they knew what they were getting into…
The Tesla Model S Plaid has been running sub 2.0 second 0-60 and 9 second 1/4 mile runs for a few years now with no issues. This is the same drive train in the CyberBeast but runs a slower 0-60 due to increased weight.
But is that in a controlled setting (i.e. a track) or do people actually get on the highway accelerating that quickly?
There’s a video on YT of a guy driving a Ferarri, turning off the vehicle stability feature, and imediately crashing. I love a good performance engine (and no disrespect to the electric crowd) but there’s such a thing as *too much* horsepower, imo.
MM,
A very popular auto magazine did a 0-150-0 mph speed test a few weeks ago. The test was done at an airport on a freshly paved 2.2 mile taxiway. A lot of ICE cars were there. And a rented Tesla Model S Plaid was there too, but it had a flat tire, and did not get to run there on that day. They did run a Tesla Plaid with standard 19-wheels and Pirelli P Zero PZ4 tires, and without the track package carbon-ceramic brakes, shortly thereafter at Virginia International Raceway.
So, not a perfect test, but eye opening nevertheless.
Winner in the ICE set of cars was a 2023 Porsche Turbo S 911.
0-150 mph = 13.5 seconds.
0-150-0 mph = 19.3 seconds
Tesla Plaid:
0-150 mph = 9.7 seconds
0-150-0 mph = 16.2 seconds
But wait, one other EV ran at VIR.
A Lucid Air Sapphire with 1234-hp:
0-150 mph = 8.8 seconds
0-150-0 mph = 15.5 seconds
But for speed-freaks out there, the fastest production car in the world is a Rimac Nevera. All electric; built in Croatia; 0-186 mph = 9.22 seconds.
Too much horsepower? Nope. My motorbike has 175 hp. I really don’t use all of it. But having the power at the ready when accelerating off cloverleafs or merging onto the highway from a stop is fantastic. A couple of seconds of power and torque makes all the difference. It’s a pleasure to ride. FWIW, 200 horsepower is now the standard benchmark for a sport bike or hyper-naked.
Kawasaki has just introduced two all-electric motorbikes. For $7.6k, the Ninja e-1ABS & for $7.3k, the Z e-1 ABS. The Z looks like a good medium to short distance commuter bike.
I would guess that other major motorbike manufactures will also have electric bikes come to market soon. It will be interesting to see what the reaction and sales numbers are with Kawasaki’s new entries.
Most people don’t understand how DC electric motors generate torque compared to ICE. IIRC a DC motor will generate 95%+ of it’s maximum torque rating down to 5% of it’s rated rpm speed. And electric motors generate more torque as load increases and become harder to stall.
ICE engines have a dramatic torque curve where they produce miniscule amounts of torque at idle or lower and taper off as they wind out. As they lose speed they also generally become easier to stall.
It’s absolutely no wonder that electric vehicles have dominated ICE vehicles in such short order. The batteries are heavy giving them lots of traction out of the gate and have nearly 100% torque from just rolling a few feet at launch. I’m not super familiar with how modern electric vehicles function but if gearboxes get added to electric vehicles if they aren’t already there, we could see the practical limits of vehicle acceleration within this decade.
I think it is a marketing head fake to try to distract from the fact that they are meeting neither their mileage or towing claims, while raising the price of the vehicle $20,000. I have been on the waiting list for a Cybertruck for over 2 years and am waiting to see what it looks like when I actually get a chance to buy one. I think it is telling that Tesla sent me an email offering me $1000 to buy a different Tesla while “I wait”. My family already owns two (my wife and my son).
Those Q3 numbers are sufficiently different from full year 2022 rank order in sales that I have to wonder if something unusual is going on.
The big three truck models have been the top three in annual sales for *forever*…if the rank order is changing in a sustainable way, that really would be a pretty big deal.
“…at I have to wonder if something unusual is going on.”
LOL. yes, in your head there is something unusual going on. You google around for 30 seconds, find something from a year ago, have no idea what you’re looking at, cannot figure out the difference between registrations and deliveries, don’t know that this data here includes actual Tesla registrations, while sales (your link) is based on estimates of what tesla is selling because Tesla doesn’t disclose what it’s selling in the US, and on what the other automakers reported to the media, and you don’t even know that Tesla’s sales have soared, while the sales of ICE makers have gone nowhere or dropped.
Went for a ride in my friend’s new Model Y yesterday for the first time. He has a Model S that Tesla kept dropping the trade-in value for ($23k originally and then down to $8k by the time delivery so he kept both). A lot nicer than the older Model S at least. He said the 2k miles he put on it in the last week it wasn’t good at the beginning, but after a 1+ hr wifi update when home it’s been a lot better. Charges faster, too. Tesla let him carry over his free supercharging that he has/had with the Model S since the trade-in fell through so another benefit he has with the Y.
WiFi updates are awesome. Almost as good as Windows now. The latest update lets my Tesla mine for Bitcoin while it’s sitting in the garage charging.
If you are looking to buy an electric vehicle, and you are not considering a Tesla, you haven’t really completed your research.
They are the only option. No one is even close to them.
The people that are buying the bolt EUV or the MachE think that all of these cars are the same with just a different battery or a different motor. While that is true the battery is about a decade ahead of anybody else’s as is the motor, the real magic is in the connectivity in the update ability of the entire architecture through the push of a button. No one else has that and no one else will have it for a couple more years.
Wouldn’t want a Tesla because of the outdated styling. Would never buy a Tesla because of the sociopath in charge.
I thought everyone wanted a “Musk rat.”
You really should meet the other sociopaths you buy your vehicles from.
I looked at Tesla and got an Audi Q8 E-Tron. So far I absolutely love it. The ride is very comfortable and it has the traditional luxury of high-end Audi vehicles, as opposed to the more space age vibe of Tesla, which I just don’t enjoy. It also has the solid feel of an Audi, as opposed to the plastic feel from Tesla. I like the Model S, but that isn’t a practical car for me, as I have kids and dogs to haul around. The price also dropped about $6K from the time I ordered it to delivery.
Combustion is dead. It will take a while to get them all in the grave but good riddance. I wonder how many people die from breathing that stuff every year?
I won’t miss the noise pollution although I’m sure someone will figure out how to make an EV sound like a Harley.
Hopefully you’re being sarcastic. Combustion is not dead. Its market share will be shrinking but it’s not dead. Cost will be the ultimate decider.
Wolf pointed it out above but I am running the numbers on a Chevy Bolt EUV. I run these numbers every time we’re in the market for a new car and the time has come. Last time I ran the numbers based on comparable size vehicles, hybrid was the cheapest over a 10 year period. I wasn’t driving much at that time though.
Today, the Chevy Bolt EUV is cheaper when you include the $7,500 federal EV credit that a comparable model. That’s even considering the high end model with leather, panoramic sunroof, etc. The base model is a no-brainer if you’re OK with the range. Chevy even has a program to pay for your home charger purchase/install.
BTW, you’re also breathing the same air as those around you.
Would you be happier with the phrase “combustion is a dead man walking”? Its not like zero ICE vehicles are going to be sold anytime in the next decade. But the next tipping point (we’ve already crossed one) is when more people want EVs than ICE so manufacturers stop investing in ICE to the extent that REALLY no one wants whats ICE has to offer. EV’s marketshare is increasing 50% year over year. that wont take long to complete the cycle. Sure, that will slow down as we approach 100% but do we really care about 100% or do we care more about 90%?
Nunya,
I was a bit over the top but eventually carbon combustion will be an expensive oddity.
Look at the current costs of mfg then think forward as EV gains scale and ICE looses scale. EV is only going to get cheaper as ICE gets more expensive.
Also consider the quality of ride (EV quiet and smooth). Much faster. Plugin and save money. Less pollution and noise.
If that doesn’t convince you only time will.
I bought my Bolt in July 2023 and have 5,500 miles on this wonderful car. I have the Premier Edition as no LT1’s were available when I bought it. It has the leather seats, Bose stereo, and pano roof.
Great car, and GM paid for the 240 volt line into my garage. I have the Time of Day service at my house and pay $0.045 per kWh charging off peak. Rane is about 250 miles, normal driving. The cost to charge for this last two month period is about $20/month at roughly 1.000 miles per month.
Even though this car came with an adequate charger (Tesla make you buy one separately), I bought a high tech programmable Emporia charger for the garage and use the GM supplied one as a spare, if needed, when I’m away from home. My power provider paid me a $250 rebate for the new charger and I will get a 30% tax credit from the feds on my taxes. So the new charger is essentially free.
I’m retired with no where to go so this car makes good sense. I will be able to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit this year, too!
Good to know you’re having great success with the Bolt EUV. I’ll be test driving one next week. Once we confirm it drives well and my two kids (9/10) can fit in the rear seat without feeling cramped, then it’s time to convince the wife. Wife is solely concerned with the look of the car. It’s not the worst looking EV out there, I actually think it looks average. But the engineer in me keeps whispering “function over form” so I really don’t care what it looks like.
Well actually the catalytic converter helped that problem a ton. And you are still breathing in all the coal smoke used to manufacture the EV battery over in China. Or perhaps natural gas used to make EV batteries here in the states.
That too is changing as the grid goes more and more renewable every year. but even if it werent, I’d rather breathe that pollution once while they made my battery, than breathe it for every vehicle mile driven until the day I die.
sufferinsucatash,
Now think about all the coal and natural gas that goes into manufacturing an ICE vehicle with its immensely complex powertrain made of aluminum, streel, platinum, etc. There are no free lunches, dear.
You pretend that your choice is nothing or EV. But it’s not. Your choice is ICE or EV.
I’ll be impressed when an EV is competitive without massive subsidies on every corner.
It amazes me how political EVs are. People bemoan EVs for a million reasons but never consider how theoretically reliable an EV can be and how affordable they could become.
Of course with safely regulations and corporate interests will never give up their profits and thus they will never be as cheap as they could be. I’m a cynic, I expect all the auto companies to make cars a live service subscription. They won’t be able to sustain their repair model for income, and financing being the bread and butter of dealerships will likely want to move to a permanent subscriber basis as EVs could last for decades with minimal repairs or a need for a new vehicle with ever advancing crash prevention measures.
It’s a brave new world for sure. But I never hear anyone talk about how EVs will likely become the basis for subscription based car “ownership.” They just cry about coal or whatever.
Maybe we’ll have a company to break the cycle and manufacture a safe and truly ownable EV that is decades reliable and can plug into a 110v socket at your house. Of course auto company lobbying will likely stop something like that from happening.
The current EV market reminds me of the early 2000s of the Internet. The corporate system hadn’t infected everything. There were a lot of quirks to deal with but in my opinion it was a lot more “advanced consumer” friendly than the modern net. Now everything is a corporate white wash of subscriptions, family friendly censoring, and advertisements. We have a lot of companies making EV’s both new and old and there’s a lot of turmoil in the market. Lots of innovations, a lot of hope and promises, a lot of scams, etc. However it won’t be long and the market will settle and everyone will find a business model that extracts maximal profits while creating an oligarchy that protects their exploitive practices.
I’d hang my hat on a subscription service for vehicles in the 2030s being nearly the only way if not the only way to “buy” a new car.
Trucker Guy, for me unfortunately EVs have already passed the point where they’re unacceptable to me.
I don’t want keyless entry which can be trivially hacked, I don’t want location services reporting back to wherever, I don’t want the ability for law enforcement or repo men or whatever to remotely shut it off (and fine if this requires I pay cash for it, I would anyway). I don’t want wireless updates, let alone automatic ones (and fine if this means no autopilot or lane guidance) (though I really do like adaptive cruise control, which matches the next car’s speed but doesn’t do anything else). I don’t want to “subscribe” to having the heat in my car work, or the radio.
The Bolt without OnStar comes close, I think, though GM still shows up in all the “this car connects to your phone, scrapes all your messages and hands them to your mechanic” articles as well as the “this car can be hijacked by attackers” articles. You can avoid the phone stuff by exclusively connecting your phone with an aux cable, and maybe I could even remove the whole entertainment unit and put an old-school stereo in there..
With ICE vehicles you can mostly avoid this by buying pre-2010 cars used, though this sucks because the efficiency is much worse than new cars.
Maybe EV platforms are “simple” enough that some day a hobby industry will pop up with people building their own cars that can’t be complex enough for all this crap..
Plus it’s always a great show when an EV burns
Absur Ditty,
Agreed, because people have seen so many ICE vehicles burn over the decades that they’re just part of the scenery, and people are bored with it. But an EV burning, now we’re talking!
2024 Prius Prime plugin runs 43 miles on a charge. For most people it will rarely use gas. It is built with 1/90th the rare earth minerals as the average EV. It’s the environmental choice of new vehicles.
So you prefer Toyota’s hideous Darth Vader styling? Have you ever looked at the front end? Darth Vader. That was a thing in the 1980s, very outdated now.
you see, taste cannot be argued with, the Romans already said that. Meaning everyone likes something different, and I think Toyota needs to fire its entire design team and start over again. But that’s just me.
Tesla builds its EV batteries in the US. Just sayin’.
Lol, we are all dead, it’s just going to take a long time to get us all in the grave 😆. Not so sure that’s a very profound statement given ICE vehicles are still selling RIGHT NOW. Yes, one day it will be antiquated tech, and it’s encouraging seeing Tesla put up these kinds of numbers, very interesting times if you like cars
Something has to happen regarding charging. There are a lot of folks who cannot install chargers and/or live at facilities w/o common chargers. They could not buy EV even if they wanted to. Even those in houses, if they are renters…
There are no home/apartment gas stations either.
Fueling up at a gas station takes 5 minutes
Bob,
Not including the time it takes to drive to the one that’s not a ripoff. Big issue for lots of people in big cities where the convenient gas station is a ripoff.
66% of the US population live in homes they own (and can therefore have home charging). I’m almost done building a new house, and I have two Level2 chargers in the garage. My Tesla charges 44 miles per hour of charging.
Over the other 34%, many apartments are adding chargers, and in some states, they are mandated on new rental construction. Pretty soon it will become a question of “do you have chargers? If not, I’m not interested in renting”. My son lives in Madison, WI and his apartment has a charger. He wasn’t going to consider an apartment that didn’t offer it.
Combustion will never die. A significant % of the world’s population still burns wood to heat their homes.
also fires in barrels are great to stay warm
Yeah, Tesla has really benefited from the $7,500 tax credit, and how Congress’ new law changed the rules on the makers in the middle of the game such that many electric vehicles don’t qualify because of where their batteries are made or sourced (not sure exactly).
It was really outrageous. I like electric vehicles, but Tesla shouldn’t have been given this advantage.
Tesla DESERVES to benefit the most from the EV tax credits.
They make awesome EVs that are basically 100% made in the USA. NONE of the other automakers are even close as the parts are all imported and ‘put together’ in USA.
What other automaker is growing and hiring Americans like Tesla?
Tesla is growing in China while GM is abandoning the market. (I think GM just made a deal to have China produce cars for GM to sell!)
How patriotic of you Government Motors!!!
Watch Jason Cammisa, a true ICE guy car lover, rave for over an hour on the Carmudgeon podcast about how he expected to hate the Cybertruck, but to his dismay ended up LOVING IT! Because the tech advancements under the hood are 5-10 years ahead of legacy automakers.
Drive by wire steering. 4 wheel steering.
800V battery system = 18 minute charging 10%-80%
48v LP power system = 70% less copper to produce vehicle
rear electric motor use ZERO rare earth minerals.
Hardened bulletproof exo skeleton frame structure.
so many industry firsts that people have no idea about.
At the end of the podcast, Cammisa said that engineers at other automakers will be asking themselves what the hell they are doing with their lives when they see what Tesla has done in the CT. Watch his video review, it’s great entertainment and education.
CT out pulls a diesel f350. (Spoiler alert) and drives like a dream on 9inches of adjustable air suspension.
Do you realize that Tesla has this advantage only because they had the vision to already had battery manufacturing in the US? Trust me, the last thing the Biden administration is interested in is giving Tesla an advantage. They’ve just earned it by being the most American auto manufacturer willing to keep jobs in the US. This should be rewarded and the Biden administration is inadvertently rewarding it, much to their dismay.
Yes, I do realize that. But the law changed in the middle, with no phase-in period. So other automakers didn’t have time to move battery production to the U.S.
There was a work around. Any EV that was leased this year could have the full $7500 tax credit worked into the lease. Then buy out the lease at some future time. People just didn’t want want overpriced non Tesla EVs even with that incentive. The stupid dealerships were marking things up while Tesla was just clearing cars at the market price left and right.
Autocratic leaders in corrupt petrostates are steaming mad that EVs and hybrids will eventually dent oil demand in the near future.
Even if OPEC+ artificially cuts oil production to create an artificial shortage, there is now the option to switch gas engines for EVs and hybrids to offset fuel costs. This isn’t 1973 anymore.
Petroleum will always be needed. Over 50% of refined oil is used for plastics, rubber, chemicals, lubricants, etc.
You would have no electricity or indoor plumbing without oil. There would be no Teslas.
Cough cough Corolla still beat the 3 cough cough
Hehe just a jest /s
It would be interesting to see the data provided by state, or just California separate from all other states combined. California is very big on EVs and is a very big state and full of EV-loving liberals. I suspect Tesla model Y is number 2 (heh, heh) mainly because of California purchases.
Florida is definitely not a liberal state, but Teslas are all over the road here.
We need to see the data, not anecdotes.
https://afdc.energy.gov/data
Simple search. here’s your answer.
Florida (full of EV-loving liberals…not) is no. 2. (heh, heh)
Florida is second behind California in EV registrations and much higher then Texas or New York. It would appear that they are quite popular in Florida, probably as not as much as most of the far western states.
EV registrations are dominated by CA, FL, and TX, which are also the three biggest states. The graph unfortunately is using a log scale, so CA EV sales are actually 5.4 times FL which is number two in rank. The population of CA is only 1.7 times FL.
The source suggested by Jak does not break down by state the new vehicle registrations by model, which is what I am looking for.
“Avoid crazy at all costs. Crazy is way more common than you think,” said Charlie Munger. “It’s easy to slip into crazy. Just avoid it, avoid it, avoid it.”
Suitable climate, first and foremost.
Tesla 3 is $35k today in Colorado. Add in $2k of Tesla Junk fees and $3500 sales tax that’s $28k kit the door. Not much more than a Corolla (a great car in its own right).
The interesting and less analyzed point is the gas saving relative to the car payment. I was paying about $210 mo last 12 months for gas (20mpg and , small SUV 1000 miles month). The 333 kWh to go this same is $50 here in Colorado (15 cents kWh, could be way less with off peak like 5 cents).
So if your car payment is $600, saving $150 month is material.
Depreciation of course is biggest car cost and a little unknown mid your basis is $28k for a Tesla you’re in a good position. Most 3 year old model 3s sell in the $24-30k range. But who knows.
I think EVS are headed the way of flat screen TVs – commoditization. Remember when this were expensive, now $300 at Target buys you a giant unit. The EV platform is magnitudes simpler than ICE and hopefully cars retreat from their ridiculous costs in the next 5-15 years.
After $7500 federal and 5k Colorado tax credit.
Let’s hope Ford can sell those 40k+ Mach Es sitting in their lots, before the Fed 75k tax credit expires!
7500 opps!
Very good point, you should never look at a new car price without calculation of its selling price in 4 or 5 years time, it makes a great difference. Popularity is crucial.
More often than not you will get the extra money you pay for a Toyota or Honda back when you sell it (plus have less problems than the people that buy a KIA or Buick). Both my Landcruisers (80 and 100) are worth more than they were worth 5 years ago (and my Defender 90 that I keep at the cabin is worth double what I paid for it 15 years ago).
I definitely agree with the trend towards EVs as commodities that will have low barriers to market entry. One interesting example was DHL. Maybe 6 or 8 years back, they wanted to electrify some of their fleet, and they took the idea for electric delivery vans to every manufacturer they could. No one had interest. So they started assembling their own from purchased components. In the meantime, other manufacturers have started putting together electric delivery vans, and they have sold off the business (Street Scooter GmbH). But if DHL, on very short notice and with no manufacturing experience, can put together their own vans, then anybody can enter this market. Maybe they won’t be profitable, but that’s a different story.
”Back in the day” when we lived in CA for a couple decades and visited family in FL often, we used to conclude that FL was about 10-15 years behind CA in many respects.
Then we lived in flyover for a decade or so, and concluded that area was about the same behind FL at that time..
All this before the vast preponderance of face hook and similar ”mis-commuication” methods that appear to have increased the national and maybe global homogenization beyond what happened when TV began it’s time in the sun…
Now just beginning to see charging stations in FL, giving a rough approximation of when FL and flyover are likely to catch up to CA with re: EV adoption.
Give or take a few years, eh
There is a reason why 15 auto manufacturers have their design studios in California. Only GM is noticeably absent – preferring to be influenced by the cutting-edge lifestyles lived by Michiganders :)
I have no funds to buy these high priced electric cars. Forget it!
The dude from my crooked insurance company screwed me royally on my totaled Toyota. He never even looked at the engine, but file a detailed report on the engine’s condition. Never got the mileage, as the car was locked when he came over. The final straw was the comps he used were bogus. He used a Toyota with manual transmission and NO air conditioning. My car had both. He spent 75% of the time looking at the portion of the car that wasn’t even damaged, with sole purpose of lowering the value. The clown was a crook. I told his supervisor that I will reporting them to the Maryland Insurance commission for fraud.
And if it were the wisdom of the boards of directors who are buying back shares from themselves and transforming them into money, and the company after me…
It’s great that people are buying EV’s if that is what they want and if it meets their needs. Competitive pressure will help push things forward.
The more EV’s on the road the less pressure on gasoline prices.
Currently EV’s work for people whose primary need is an urban commute car. EV ranges need to get to 500 miles and charging networks need to expand multiple times.
Progress in batteries appears to be stalled for the moment. The proof is that Cybertruck failed to meet it’s 500 mile range using current 4680 batteries. It will likely take a couple more years for the 4680 improvements Tesla hoped to achieve a year ago are realized which will allow CT to meet it’s range goals.
In cold weather your range will be 30% less than advertised and that is even with Teslas superior engineering attention given to heat management of the battery pack. Something that invisible to most consumers and so is neglected by legacy car companies who also make EV’s. And in really cold weather – normal in 1/2 the country, many of the Electrify America chargers won’t work. Tesla Chargers, being the only company that invests in charging, seem to work reliably even in -10 degree weather and Tesla also still puts out the effort to maintain it’s network.
Since there is little competitive pressure on Tesla, it’s hard to say how hard they will push range or the needed move to solid state batteries to solve the low but real problems with lithium battery fires. It’s also hard to know how much Tesla will continue to invest in it’s charging network at a time when they have opened it up to other EV makers placing more demand on the existing network.
I’m not sure if Mr. Wolf favors mandates. I would guess, he does not. Mandates will be the one thing certain to hobble EV development. Why would Tesla or other invest billions to keep pressing forward with necessary but difficult, incremental battery improvements if he can count on states like Calif forcing people there to buy whatever EV product is offered.
It’s also convenient for EV makers, that China is likely to be excluded from the US market at a time when China is rapidly becoming the biggest most efficient EV maker in the world.
Lets also remember that comparing percentage growth obscures the actual number of units. Millions more ICE vehicles continue to be built than EV’s. I’ll be ready to buy a new car in 2 or 3 years. If EV’s are available that can do 500 miles and charging networks are still being maintained even if nobody makes money from them, I’ll consider one.
I am on the CT list at about 125k, so I think I still have a year (hopefully longer) before I have to make a decision. At $80k for 340 miles of range, today the answer would probably be no. But there is another rev of 4680 coming soon and maybe 4680 will begin exceeding the energy density of the old 2170’s and we will see that promised 500 mile range.
“I’m not sure if Mr. Wolf favors mandates. I would guess, he does not.”
Correct. Let the people decide what they want to drive — that’s the American way.
I even hate the tax credits. EVs can and should stand on their own four wheels. Stimulating an already hot product with scare tax dollars is totally nuts, and I have said this a gazillion times. These tax credits, along with the regulatory credits that companies sell to each other, are just stupid policy.
Wolf, Good comeback, agree 100%
330 mile range meets 80% of buyers needs adequately.
With the range extender additional battery the AWD CT gets up to 470 miles range. And with the supercharging network that should suffice 95%+ of buyers needs even when towing.
“330 miles meets most commuter needs”.
The CT range extender is a crazy idea. Lose half your truck bed. Add 500 pounds to your vehicle weight and pay $16,000 and still don’t make it to the promised 500 mile range.
EV makers will tell you that to maintain battery life, you need to limit discharges to 30% and recharge to 80 or 90%. So in reality, your day to day driving should be limited to 50% of the advertised range between charges.
Add in cold or hot weather and range is impacted further.
When you head out on a road trip in February in Wyoming, you are not going to want to plan your trip to ever find yourself without a healthy reserve on the battery.
A vehicle that meets 80% of MOST buyers needs is not a general purpose vehicle. It’s an urban commute car.
EV’s will get there if competitive pressure remains, but as it is now, battery evolution is flat lined. That wont last unless competetive pressure on EV makers disappears.
I think EV’s are great. I want one, but I dont want to have to own 2 cars (on EV and on Gas for road trips) to perform the job of one. I also don’t want to have to plan my trips or watch my batter state if I decide to drive 800 miles to Calif or 1000 miles to Chicago.
There are 26 million electric cars in the world, compared to 1.4 billion total vehicles. Hablo a nivel mundial que es lo que vale.
I think that talking about an increase in percentages gives a vision that seems like a fabulous increase.
Also calculating future prices of all the components that an electric car needs with these numbers is a bit accelerated.
Perhaps when electric vehicles make up 20% of all vehicles, we can begin to glimpse the future price of these components that are also used in wind and photovoltaic energy.
You’re confusing “vehicles in operation” with “vehicle sales.” That’s a pretty fundamental mistake.
In the US, there are 288 million vehicles in operation, for 160 million households. Many of them are parked as a second or third vehicle (to tow the boat to the lake, etc.). Many of them are old. The average age is 12 years, but many are 20 years and older.
But about 15.5 million new vehicles will be sold in 2023 in the US.
In California, EVs are already over 20% of new vehicle sales. For the US overall, they’re over 7%. The US is far behind China and some other countries in EV sales as a percent of total sales.
I don’t know. I like the concept of EVs, but man, the charging…
Not there yet.
2022 may have been a good year for BEVs; but let’s not get too carried away.
Plenty of Articles reporting the slowing demand for BEVs this Year for most other makers.
TSLA are getting slapped with Labor Strikes, Shipment Boycotts, and Divestment from Nordic/Scandinavian Countries stemming from TSLA’s refusal to allow/agree to collective bargaining agreements – more powerful in Northern Europe. TSLA just lost Court Case related to that; and more Labor Unions from Neighboring States are joining in.
I’m expecting German and French Unions to Join the Fray – just because…and Eurozone Automakers already have their own collective agreements – they’re not going to let TSLA get away with it in the Eurozone.
That being said,
BEV Sales are increasing – raise a glass, Fans; but so are Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Sales.
Every bit helps in reducing the use of Gasoline/Diesel with alternatives. Porsche’s Hydrogen+Atmospheric CO2 based SynFuel Project is interesting; but Subsidies make or break these Projects.
After All, TSLA survived on Subsidies, Carbon Credit Sales, Consumer Tax Credits, and HOV Lane Privileges…
Back to Hybrids – Hybrid Vehicles have actually outsold BEVs every year so far. The surge in BEV Sales in 2022 may have foreshadowed BEVs surpassing HEVs in sales in 2023; but the HEVs increased their Sales to maintain their lead so far.
Market Share by Year – 2023 is YTDNov.
Source CNBC/Edmonds
BEVs HEVs
2023 6.9% 8.3%
2022 5.2% 5.5%
2021 2.6% 5.0%
2020 1.6% 4.0%
2019 1.3% 3.5%
2018 1.2% 2.5%
2017 0.5% 2.1%
2016 0.4% 2.0%
2015 0.3% 1.8%
Why? Probably based on the Costs. Based on Edmonds, the average HEV costs $42,381, an average ICE Vehicle costs $44,800 – both below the average cost of $59,400 for a BEV.
Granted, Dealerships of Traditional Automakers have Sticker Shocked the Public with their Surcharges, which have destroyed their own BEVs’ demand where now BEVs are sitting in lots longer.
With Chinese and Vietnamese BEV/HEV Makers planning their North American Markets soon, Muricans may have grand choices ahead.