Since the $7,500 EV incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act last August, Ford hiked the Lightning price by $16,000.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
I warned about this over a year ago, when the prior version of EV incentives were being pushed in Congress: You do not subsidize a product that is already in red-hot demand with short supply or no supply, with huge waiting lists and long-sold-out production runs. You’re not making this product cheaper for consumers, you’re just making it more expensive because automakers will instantly hike prices to swallow all of those incentives plus some, and that’s exactly what is now happening, and it’s going to stimulate inflationary pressures further and cause more headaches for the Fed and the economy.
Ford, which builds one of the two EV pickups on the US market, announced its third price increase of its electric F-150 Lightning, bringing the total price increase since its introduction to $16,000 or 40%. Inflation here we come, thank you, Congress.
Ford raised the price of the base version of the F-150 Lightning by another $4,000, or by another 8% to “starting at” $55,974. Plus destination and delivery charges.
Back in May 2021, before Congress passed the EV incentives, Ford originally priced the base version of the Lightning at $39,974. Plus destination and delivery charges.
Then comes Congress with the Profit Enlargement Act.
In August 2022 – just as Congress was passing the “Inflation Reduction Act” that included all kinds of incentives to fuel even more inflation and enrich Corporate America, including the $7,500 subsidy for EVs – Ford hiked the price of the Lightning by $7,000, to $46,974, eating up in one gulp nearly all of the EV subsidy. So inflation just got worse LOL.
Then a couple of months later, in early October 2022, Ford hiked the price of the Lightning by another $5,000, to $51,974, laughing out even louder about the EV subsidies,
Then a couple of month later, meaning now, Ford hiked by another $4,000 to $55,974. Plus destination and delivery charges of $1,895, for a total MSRP of $57,869. For the cheapest version.
Throughout the price-hike period, the destination and delivery charges were also hiked by about $200.
Ford also jacked up the prices of its Mustang Mach E SUV in August 2022, as the $7,500 in incentives were being passed, by $3,000 to $8,000, depending on trim.
Tesla increased its US prices by $2,000 to $6000 in June 2022
I’ve been screaming about EV incentives for a while.
Prices go up because they can go up. If competition and a buyers’ strike by consumers don’t allow prices to go up, then prices don’t go up, and if automakers try to raise prices anyway, then sales plunge, and suddenly there’s oversupply, all the way up the supply chain, which brings costs down too. That’s how inflation ends.
But that’s not the situation today. Today there is red hot inflation, red-hot demand for EVs, already grotesquely overstimulated consumers, who’re now getting another $7,500 from the federal government and more from state governments to buy EVs, and crank up already hot demand for EVs amid a lack of competition and very limited supply.
When there is strong demand, lots of incentives to heat up demand further, amid limited or no competition, limited supply, and the now blooming inflationary mindset where enough consumers just pay whatever, well then manufacturers just charge whatever.
If you want to incentivize a nascent technology to get it going, OK. But EVs are the hottest product out there now, with huge demand, a huge amount of excitement, long waiting lists, sold out production runs, and very little supply.
In September 2021 when a prior version of the EV incentives was kicked around in Congress, I said:
“Piling on government incentives via tax credits on an already red-hot industry that is already planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to compete and bring EV prices down, amid red-hot demand from overstimulated consumers chasing down new vehicles no matter what the price, amid red-hot inflation and historic inventory shortages” is a “totally braindead economic policy.”
It’s not braindead if you’re on Corporate America’s payroll because this bill, like many other bills going back eons, is turning into a fabulous Corporate-America-enrichment bill, as these price increases show.
Competition will bring prices down, not incentives. And lower prices stimulate demand. Incentives are fueling price increases and profit margins. Hot inflation? High interest rates? Don’t worry, To douse inflation, Congress is throwing more fuel on it, LOL.
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“Profit Enlargement Act” – now that is funny. How long until Congress gets the memo?
Milton Friedman: “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
Intention: Inflation reduction act.
Result: Profit Enlargement.
at least the lightning can pull johnnies little red wagon around
sure can’t pull my 10,000lb dump trailer and tractor
well it can – for 50 miles before 3 hour recharge
“Profit Enlargement Act” is a great title, but it describes so many different laws. I suppose we need to number them. Some of the others could be called “Campaign donation requirement act” and “legislator retirement bonus act.” Also maybe “lobbyist effectiveness recognition act.”
we’ve been a corpocracy since 08 perhaps earlier….
USA founders were VERY scared of corporations, as they saw they ran the governments of England and other nations, and really tried to control them here….constant tight regulation, expiring charters, revoked charters, etc, etc, But my guess is it took them about 20-30 years after the revolution for them to crush and then run states. After that there was no stopping them. They don’t buy actual seats in Congress yet, but they write law, and then pay to have it voted in.
When Lincoln said they were “enthroned” here, he meant it.
You can buy flags with the largest corporate logos instead of stars on them, if you want to show you know who’s boss here.
The first lobbyists (1800-1820 or so) were called “BORERS”. I guess it was an analogy of a well paid corporate termite disrupting what was an attempt at a government,
“of the people, by the people, for the people.”,
all to make new law to advantage his or all corporations. Corps have (and anyone else with a ton of money, like old family dynasties, PE, etc) never stopped adding to this now practically indecipherable maze of corporate law.
Sorry Abe, we blew it, and it is “perishing from the earth”.
I’ve seen it first hand growing up. My Uncle walked the halls of the Capitol, the White House, the Pentagon, etc, as freely as if he belonged there. Which he, in fact, DID. Became VERY rich, very powerful
BTW, just read the CEO of Raytheon said he is hiring 27,000 (per Yahoo IIRC, FWIW) and I expect the other weapons biggies will be cashing in also.
Ukraine War.
its the inflation PRODUCTION act
Root Farmer, Congress will never get the memo as long as “we the people” continue to elect these idiots that think spending more money will reduce inflation.
to many takers and grifters in uniparty
Maybe this is congress’ way of bailing out the automakers covertly, and to steer the automakers towards their agenda of clean energy.
The $7,100 increase for the 2023 model versus the 2022 model added two standard “free” improvements.
The standard battery mileage increased 10 miles, plus heated seats are now standard to reduce HVAC battery loads…are you not impressed…me either…HA
Hey at least Ford trucks now contain less lead than corporate America’s dark chocolate bars…so that’s something, right???
My favorite seat “feature” is those that return to several different personally selected positions. How did people ever live without it?
I agree the incentives were a corporate handout, but I really appreciate the made-in-America requirements, and already you can see that having an effect. If the incentives keep and create American jobs, then I support that.
Maybe Ford should introduce the Ford Pivot.
“Maybe Ford should introduce the Ford Pivot”
That is very clever and funny! The Mach-E is certainly NOT what we are waiting for.
Wait till the low-riders get into these 3+ way folding tailgates. Could make it do some real suggestive licking motions.
Plus, with EVs they won’t have to have a pile of lead acid batteries in the trunk. And the new servos and stepping motors can be computer controlled and have a lot more movement than the hydraulics did.
Maybe obscene motions will be banned by law in the religious States?…..or at least within 500 ft of a school.
+1000
The one thing I have noticed, with all the Trillions in Federal Reserve and Treasury subsidies, since 2008.
Almost nothing in America, works better. Roads, bridges, subways, and airports, mostly third worldish.
Tariffs — which are a tax on profit margins of importers in the US and exporters outside the US — would have accomplished the same, only better, and they would have been paid for by importers (Corporate America and foreign companies), not by taxpayers. And they wouldn’t have stimulated demand like this, and they wouldn’t have contributed to price spikes and inflation like these incentives.
In addition, the foreign automakers and US automakers too are already all over the Treasury department, which is writing the actual rules. They’re now all wanting loopholes to be written into the rules. Manchin just had a hissy-fit about this.
Tariffs also would have reduced the trade deficit. Between
Corporate America and Congress, this country doesn’t have
a chance.
Senators Smoot and Hawley agree with you but ask that you ignore history.
Well said.
Looks like some companies are on a cannibalistic course of “greed” induced oblivion. Great reviews on the new Prius for 2023 at $35K. Get ready for the ramp up of mass produced Asian Evs at reasonable prices, as American auto makers die on the vine. USA is terrible when it comes to cars. I don’t think the luxury truck market is sustainable at these stratospheric prices and interest rates. I guess Ms. Barra knows better than me.
Governments are dolling out a lot of incentives to go to EVs. There is a new Vietnamese EV car plant and a new Toyota EV battery plant being built within 50 miles of me in N.C.
My concern is they are being built when money was free. It looks like consumer is rolling over with tight money as far as eye can see just as the manufacturing ramp ups take place.
Not to worry, Uncle Vinny, I mean Sam, has ways of making people buy the goods. Think Cash for Clunkers. For starters.
“The beatings will continue until morale improves.”
Nathan, I’m thinking you’re onto something very important. Wouldn’t be surprised to see GM and Ford forced into merger(acquired) or go bankrupt 10 to 15 years from now when the truck craze goes south.
I don’t know anybody who even wants this truck.
There is a commenter here who bought one (maybe still waiting to get it).
I’m mostly a lurker and not a commenter, but I have a Lightning. I paid the original price and will qualify for the $7500 rebate for the 2022’s. I wanted a truck (didn’t say *need*) and I wanted electric and I know it’s a luxury item, but it’s a fantastic vehicle and I’m very happy with it. But I’m at the age where I can afford to be foolish with my money if I want to be. I couldn’t have justified it 10 or 20 years ago when I was building up my savings. It’s insane how much these vehicles cost and there will be a market correction, but, as pointed out, not until after the rebates are a non-factor.
Enjoy it…in spanish currency means to flow, still water is boring and invites algae
The demand for this EV truck if off the roof.
Nor do I. But, the limited supply is far less than the demand that does exist.
The fact remains that, when towing a light load, the battery goes down faster than a cheap hooker in a dark alley.
That’s good! Better than white on rice.
There will be a substantial amount of buyers who purchase the 6,500lb truck because it can do 0-60 in less than 4 seconds, and that creates an adrenaline rush for many males.
Note the Lightning is about 2,000 lbs heavier the the non EV F150 which runs between 4,000-5,000 lbs. So it is going to cause a lot more damage and accidents if drivers run them like sports cars and end up in accidents.
I actually upgraded a recent ICE crossover SUV purchase to the turbo engine simply so I can avoid getting ran over by the 3 second 0-60 EVs that are very common in the city I frequent. It is more difficult judging traffic speeds in herds of EVs that accelerate instantly, especially at night as we are all programmed for the more typical 0-60 range of 8-12 seconds. Previous 3 second 0-60 required a $200k supercar and sports bikes, which would pay the “price” for accelerating too fast and causing an accident as they weighed much less than the other vehicle. The 6,500 lb Lightning driver won’t be paying the “price” so drivers beware of this newfound technology risk…
Yort,
“Note the Lightning is about 2,000 lbs heavier the the non EV F150 which runs between 4,000-5,000 lbs.”
That’s willful apples and oranges. The Lightning is a 4×4, 4-door with more hp (nearly 600) and better acceleration than anything Ford offers, and more torque (775 lb-ft) than any gasoline engine Ford offers
You’re comparing it to a 2-wheel drive, 2-door, low-end truck, in terms of the weight.
You need to compare the Lighting to a 4×4 4-door with the most powerful ICE engines Ford offers – that would be a 4×4 4-door diesel, which weighs 7,500 lbs. In the gasoline lineup, a Raptor is as close as you can get, and it weighs 5,800 lbs
POWERFUL TRUCKS ARE HEAVY TRUCKS.
I gave you this information here.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/12/car-truck-trends-faster-more-powerful-bigger-heavier-and-more-fuel-efficient/
All you have to do is read it, or you can go to the Ford website and do your own research.
Anyone but a Government bureaucrat would instinctively know that it’s dumb to subsidize expensive EVs which are primarily an toy for the rich. Tesla buyers are not buying these cars because they are affordable.
There has got to be a better place to put taxpayers money.
Demand for Lithium and has sent battery prices through the roof and most of the money goes offshore.
My bet is that Ford expects government agencies and corporates looking to show off their ESG bonafides will pay these prices to fill their fleets.
Exactly. It’s not that they have to be expensive toys, but that’s where we are right now. They don’t need to be faster than a V8 Mustang or have 400 miles of range, but they’re luxury items with luxury prices, so to attract the buyers with the kind of money needed, that’s how they build them. I hear these claims that an EV will pay for itself. I have to wonder how? I bought a hatchback 3 yrs old with 30k miles on it for 13k 5 years ago. In that time it has had a total maintenance cost of ~$800 (10 oil changes and a stuck brake caliper), and fuel cost of ~$2500. I could scrap the car today and it still would only have cost me 3.25k a year to own. But KBB value is 9K to trade in, so really it has cost me $1500 a year to own. You gonna tell me a Model 3 (with considerably less cargo room and ground clearance) that costs 45k minimum and isn’t really any cheaper used is somehow going to beat that? So it’s going to run on no fuel or maintenance cost for 30 years? That’s a good one. For more fun, consider that I live in Maine. These EV batteries need to warm themselves to 20C to drive without battery damage. Each short trip to and from work? 7% of the battery capacity just to warm it up twice on a typical winter day. They also need to maintain a minimum temperature **even when not running** on cold days. Think that’s easy? Think again. The battery is thin, wide, and long, making up basically the floor of the car. Not exactly easy to keep warm when it’s subzero for half the day (or sometimes a whole week). I usually fill up on gas about once a month. These cars will drain their entire battery without even driving them in 3 days if it’s cold enough.
I believe wholeheartedly in preserving the planet indefinitely. But please don’t make me (taxpayer) subsidize F150 lightnings, Volvo C40 (their own brochure states it takes 140,000 miles for the EV to surpass the otherwise-identical non-EV carbon emissions using the world’s energy mix), etc etc. I’ll be happy to subsidize solar farms (my residence runs on heat pumps, costs way more per year than my gasoline cost). Oh wait, I don’t need to subsidize solar farms because in my area they have a break-even timeframe of 9 years. Notice how they don’t need a subsidy to be viable because they’re actually efficient? Maybe we should be pushing for the grid to be 80% renewable first (energy needs fluctuate ~20% from day to night) before we all drive these EVs. Oh, that’s right, not politically exciting enough.
MacGruber,
You gotta get some things straight here.
Yes, it’s OK to say that by now buying a new vehicle of any kind is a luxury purchase, given the prices of new vehicles. And you can say – or could say until 2021 — that you can save a lot of money by buying a used car (not since 2021).
But you cannot compare the cost of buying a used beater to the costs of buying a new performance EV to say that EVs are more expensive. That’s just silly.
The average transaction price of ICE vehicles = $48,000. The base Model 3 is right in there. EVs are not more expensive than ICE, apples to apples.
Yes, if you want to save money on a car, buy a used base-version of a cheap no-frills car with a small engine and drive it until it falls apart. Then start over again. But this has nothing to do with EV v. ICE. These are the economics of buying an old economical beater and driving it until it falls apart. Best deal in town, if that’s what you want to do.
But don’t compare the ownership costs of buying a used el-cheapo ICE vehicle to buying a new performance EV, in order to say that EVs don’t save you money. This is just tiple-ridiculous.
To find out if EVs are more expensive than ICE, do apples to apples. Look at what Ford charges for its powerful 4×4 4-door ICE trucks that might compare to the Lightning. Compared to them, the Lightning is a deal:
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/05/1768-a-month-with-10407-down-5-apr-on-a-ford-pickup-update-on-q3-new-vehicle-finance/
People keep making the mistake of comparing the lowest lowball base ICE vehicle to a high-powered luxury performance EV. Compare apples to apples. Compare the performance version of the BMW 3 series to the Tesla Model 3. That’s the comparison. Don’t compare a Toyota Corolla to the Model 3. That’s idiotic.
“Prices go up because they can go up.”
Let’s see if this grossly overpriced vehicle suffers the same fate as housing cancellations currently underway.
I hope so. But I doubt it as long as production runs are still relatively small. Ford is trying to get production up to a rate of 120,000 trucks a year a year from now!! Right now, it’s only making a few thousand a month. That’s all it CAN make. The supply chain simply isn’t ready for this huge ramp-up.
And for still the small number of buyers, there is just too much money floating around.
A few of the “buyers” are flippers. One clown nearby is trying to hawk a Tesla Model X. “Get it immediately! NO waiting!” or so the story goes.
I wouldn’t buy it for $1 just because. Let him eat the dang thing.
Very true. I’m interested in an EV as a daily commuter for my wife, but many EVs are still getting eye watering dealer market adjustments. VW is holding to MSRP, but uncertainty around the tax incentive has me sitting on the sidelines for those. So it’s either another year with a car that is long in the tooth or trying to get a decent hybrid. The Prius is intriguing with the new redesign.
Prices don’t go up if there’s a nice competitive market with lots of capacity, but that’s a big if.
America’s long been sold a bill of goods that prices going down is the natural state of things, and that business will make that happen forever, out of the goodness of their heart.
People want to make money, and whatever’s the least costly way to make money is what they’ll do, even if it means fleecing people.
And if starting up a new factory is more difficult than printing new price stickers with bigger numbers, well then people are gone get fleeced.
from what I recall (apologies if I have the automaker wrong), Ford was proud that it didn’t take a bailout during GFC.
Wonder if they lobbied for this.
those was amazing times, I walked into huge dodge dealer, another OEM also who wanted our software, big on tv in south bay area..
2 weeks later there were chains on door on follow up meeting
EVs are probably unprofitable at the base price for manufacturers until they achieve high volume production. Yes, the subsidy is a reason why the manufacturer can raise the base price with impunity but the Government wants the investment made in EV technology and this is the best way to get there. Direct payments to the manufacturers would also work but then the resulting product might sit on the dealer lot.
Auto manufacturers have had a fifty year tariff in place to prevent imported pickup trucks (since Johnson) and that is more problematic because it results in high margins on enormous pickup trucks for US manufacturers. So guess what they have focused on for the last decade?
“EVs are probably unprofitable at the base price for manufacturers…”
Nope, Tesla is HIGHLY profitable:
Net income in 2021: $5.5 billion
Net income in 2022: $8.9 billion over the first nine months, and will get close to $12 billion for the whole year.
And it has the fattest profit margin in the auto industry.
Why? Because EVs are inherently simple and cheaper to build than ICE vehicles. The only component that is more expensive is the battery.
I’m old enough to remember when you were hammering home how much Tesla was losing every quarter. ;)
Yes, it did become a real automaker with profitable products. It burned $20 billion in investor money to get there, which is a huge amount of money, but seems cheap now compared to how much the other automakers have to spend trying to catch up. Musk shook up the entire legacy auto industry. I’m very grateful he did. That was a really good thing for the economy — now they have to get off their lazy oligopolistic butts and do something. The stock still has a must-sell-now rating though. If we could just get some new automakers into the mix that will compete on price, and undercut everyone by $20K, that would be awesome. But no one is volunteering for that yet.
Wolf, is there a chance that while Congress is giving out a torrent of subsidies, that there’s still a theory of the market, where when prices go up, to meet demand, minimizing any deadweight loss, that will intentionally send a signal to other potential producers to get the ball rolling faster so they can take advantage of the high prices, while the money spigot is still running?
Somehow, that would seem to be an easy and efficient way for the market to work by utilizing incentives, without the government actually getting involved with sponsoring individual businesses, or taking over production themselves, or coming up with something punitive instead.
(Because if they really tried to do this with tarifs, you’d equally be able to say, EV importers are raising prices, and passing on the tax to the consumer. It’s a highly malleable narrative.)
What you don’t want is abandon this key technology — EVs and battery tech — to the China apparatus that has lots of incentives and subsidies and forced technology transfers in place, and where the government has had a long-standing strategy of becoming, by hook or crook, the dominant player in the world. The China apparatus has done this successfully in other industries. China has massive tariffs and administrative hurdles on importing motor vehicles. They know how to protect their market. This is a real issue.
Yeah… But, it can’t be a good sign that Kathy Woodshed is piling in.
They might be profitable from production after volume ramps up, but part of the cost of the vehicle is R&D and, on a clean sheet of paper vehicle, can be quite costly. Tesla’s Model S: How old is the design and engineering? 10 years? Long ago amortized.
For an example, a new model at the mfr I worked at, profitability didn’t take hold on a newly developed model until the third year of production (which is why there aren’t many modifications in the first years – just gingerbread stuff and “mistakes” corrected). After that, the vehicle can become immensely profitable over a 6 year product cycle. It’s also the reason that product launches are staggered. Can’t have all the profitable vehicles rolling off at the same time as profits would vary wildly from year to year.
I would imagine that the factory modifications, tooling, training, R&D, etc., is very capital intense for Ford. I recall a meeting where our CEO -tongue-in-cheek- wished the dealers present would stop selling our EV’s because the company lost so much money on each one. It was a volume issue and they never could amortize the investment.
A few years go, I came across an article that evaluated the actual impact of BEV cars on CO2 emissions and they found that it all depends upon where you drive it. In France, where electricity generation is nuclear and has no CO2, there is a significant benefit. In areas where coal plants still produce much of the electricity, the benefit was negligible.
So the real environmental policy would be to upgrade old coal plants to either the cleanest natural gas tech or renewable, and let the market demand increase the number of BEV cars. BTW, solar energy generation is pretty much on par in terms of cost per Kwh to natural gas, in many locations.
And the REAL environmental policy would be to put a bunch of money into self-driving tech. Because once that tech is safe, companies can launch robo-taxi networks that would allow many people to get rid of their older gas cars. The number of cars manufactured each year could plunge, because each BEV robo-taxi could replace multiple vehicles. An robo-taxis would be single-purpose vehicles (many for single passenger), so they could be really down-sized (you dont need 4 seats and truck space for one passenger), also saving materials and reducing energy needs.
It would have also made more economic sense to focus the tax incentives on commercial BEV vehicles, which are driven all day long.
This is the type of policy that demonstrates our core problem is Washington DC – the home of graft and lies.
With EVs, smog and noise are eliminated from city centers which is where most people live. Those two benefits in my experience should drive the transition to EVs. Quality of life.
Good mass transit works well in the urban cores. Most cars are driven into the core from the suburbs.
When the Minnesota Vikings play at home tomorrow, noon CST, a good percentage of the fans will arrive and depart via the light rail.
Wanna drink and not drive? Take the train. Wanna not pay $30 to $50 to park your vehicle? Take the train. The football stadium is also at the place where the two light rail lines from downtown Minneapolis split and diverge; one to St Paul & one to MSP airport and the Mall of America.
Not always true.
In NYC, most cars are driven from the other five boroughs. People from the suburbs take mass transit.
San Francisco is livable without car…muni and bart were great ways to get about until about 12 years ago….airport was just transfer at glen park or below. N Judah dropped me anywhere it seemed….
but that system is going bankrupt, hard times coming for the city….you can see it, feel it
Prairie Rider
The fans may wish they had skipped the Vikings Game. They are losing 50 to 0 at halftime.
Swamp Creature,
I did not see any of the game, but I wonder how many Vikings fans stuck around to watch the OT comeback victory? The ones that bailed early probably can’t believe it…
Outwest,
The Philippines (where I now live) is a “green nation”. In Naga, a city of about 250k people, they started replacing the jeepneys and tricycles (motorcycles with an enclosed sidecar on the right side) with small – 6 passenger – electric jeepneys about 3 years ago. These electric jeepneys are powered by a standard 12 volt car battery which can be swapped out quickly and easily.
I believe the same process is under way in Manila.
Thank you for your interesting and relevant comment.
Yes I am seeing them in Manila where I am till January then up to Baguio > perhaps they will have them their.. However with the HUGE Population it will take some time before you see a large switch over I expect
perhaps humm 2 years
I well look for one later to try out going to a Doctor (P800 > and sister P400 discount for 2 about $22 US )
EV Trike’s are very cheap in the philippines starting at about $400 to $600 is common
https: //philippines.star8.green/transport/public-vehicles-2-2/
As example
M. C.,
Baguio City is a great place. If you can stay through February you can take a jeepney out to La Trinidad for the Strawberry Festival and at the end of February Baguio has a Flower Festival.
M. C.
Thank you for the info on Star8.green.
They have a dealership in Naga which I will visit on my next trip to that city.
I don’t even think Washington reads bills anymore once they are thrown over the fence from lobbyists. In fact, I down see how Congress *can* read those bills when the votes are 48 hours from the release of the document.
a) the grid is getting cleaner, pretty much everywhere, every year, so this doesn’t matter as much
b) self-driving tech is probably on balance worse, because it will increase the amount of driving overall
Self driving is just one aspect of future Smart Cars.
Not only will EVs use less energy to get from A to B. But they will be aware of traffic conditions along the entire route.
Think of all the braking and accelerating (B/A) that could be avoided.
1) Convert all stop signs to yield signs. – the car will see all pedestrians and other cars and be able to cruise through these intersections at safe speeds without B/A.
2) How many times have I been going 80mpg down the freeway knowing full well that there is a traffic jam 5-10 miles ahead? – With crowd sourced traffic info like this, all cars approaching traffic could slow down enough that by the time they arrived at the traffic, it would be gone! Not to mention taking alternate routes, which already happens to some extent with navigation.
3) Stop and Go city driving with stop lights could also be eliminated. Every smart car will know when the lights will change and can approach at a speed at which they will pass through green lights only without braking. If you every drive around France with roundabouts everywhere, you can often go from a small village to a major city without ever stopping. no B/A
I’m sure there are even more examples.
All this smart car awareness will make travel by auto orders of magnitude cheaper. If you can take a robo taxi ride for pennies, car ownership will be the exception, rather than the rule.
All the efficiencies above can work with every car on the road once the right smartphone app is developed. But it would be up to drivers to make use of and head the app speed recommendations. But it would only take maybe 20% of drivers using such an app for traffic to conform mostly to the correct arrival speeds since everyone else would be stuck behind them!!
3)
Like the Johnny Cab from Total Recall, 1990.
This is ludicrously optimistic.
When I’m walking across a street I sure as hell don’t want yield signs. I can’t assume the cars will see me.
In any case, all of these “efficiencies” will lead to more driving.
I’m starting to hear “in just 20 more years” from the self crashing car bunch, similar to what I heard from the Fusion Power bunch in the late 60’s.
Your info/opinion come from Popular Science or Popular Mechanics? The “land of flying cars” since the 50’s, when I read them as a kid?
That’s if they are still around.
Really, really gross stuff, and a perfect example of how filthy corporate America and their bought-and-paid-for politicians are.
“You will own nothing and be happy” was not only not a conspiracy theory, it seems to be arriving sooner than expected.
When you’ve got nothing to lose.
DC, are you more concerned about owning nothing or being happy?
Odd way to frame a question. Owning nothing is its own fetish; asceticism or self-imposed austerity. When presented as transcending the fetters of the material world, it’s an enticing concept, evoking as it does, a soul flying free & naked through the physical plane; but there’s a difference between hoarding garbage & outfitting one’s inner sanctum with articles & instruments which enrich & edify. Happiness is a moving target, but a solid sense of haven has always helped in my pursuits.
I was joking. Maybe I should have added a ;-). I found DC’s quote funny given the general tone of his comments. I hope DC can be happy whether or not we own nothing. I agree with your assessment that happiness is a moving target we must all pursue individually.
A life of poverty and destitution, subsisting on government handouts with the inability to afford even the most basic of creature comforts and useful tools, does not lead to happiness, irrespective of what deranged billionaire globalists say.
We are in an extremely dangerous and dark time in history. In fact, I just read a statistic where over 100% of median income is needed just for rent – shelter – in some markets. The future of the young is not in danger of being stolen, it was already stolen, and quickly.
The FED, and crooked politicians who are bought-and-paid-for, did this. It was the most diabolical scheme in the history of the USA. And they smile and clink their glasses together in the evenings, talking about what else they have in store for us. Yet people like you take little pot shots at anonymous commenters. You are complicit.
“Yet people like you take little pot shots at anonymous commenters. You are complicit.”
Really? Don’t you see the contradiction in what you just wrote (“we are in an extremely dangerous and dark time in history” etc.) and your earlier quote that we’ll own nothing and be HAPPY? That’s why I thought the previous comment was funny, at least in an ironic sense, because you obviously don’t think we’ll be happy. I agree with that and a lot of your comments, but I’ll admit I don’t get too worked up about all the nonsense in the world today. I have no control or influence so I just try to enjoy my life and provide honest input as best I can. Lighten up, or don’t, it’s your life. Also, I’m not complicit in anything outside your imagination.
I may have misunderstood your reply. “You will own nothing and be happy” is a quote attributed to Klaus Schwab and the WEF in their global agenda, not something I believe in. I was merely pointing out how quickly it’s becoming a reality.
It seemed to me that rather than show concern over what’s materialized, you decided to mock and shoot the messenger. My apologies if that wasn’t your intention.
I’d also like to say that I have a hard time keeping up with all of the names of the commenters here, therefore can sometimes miss sarcasm, etc. I do my best but sometimes fail. I read every comment, even from the people who hate me.
It certainly wasn’t my intention to mock you and apologize if it sounded that way. I was just trying to point out the absurdity of the WEF quote in a poorly worded question.
D. C.
It’s amazing that the MSM can keep calling concepts “conspiracy theories” even after the truth (fact) of the concept has been put in print in a book. I guess the younger generations don’t read books any more so they don’t know the truth.
They play the game of “divide and conquer” to keep the sheeple at each others’ throats with wedge issues that trigger strong emotions. It works. It’s psychological warfare that the US government has waged upon its own citizens.
And all the corporations are “shining cities on the hill”, to use the words of the corps MOST damaging (to this “people’s attempt at self government”) puppet, in my life time, at least.
Btw, why do you care if people here supposedly “hate you”? It’s not like they know where you live. I “hate” lima beans, not anyone here. Hating is hard on one mentally, so let them suffer.
Only Wolf can “vote” people out of this “ongoing story” website.
Microeconomics, freshman year college. Simple stuff.
We got to fight fire with fire!
qt – as opposed to the last several year’s strategy of fighting it with more fuel?
may we all find a better day.
I’ve been on the list to replace my aging 2014 f150. The truck is falling apart. It was a cheap option at 40k when I signed up. They’re still selling for 20k plus over sticker. I refuse. I’ll probably buy a Tundra instead and reconsider when prices return to reality. They have absolutely tarnished themselves with how they have rolled out the release. Its been an embarrassment.
Ed,
The Tundra is assembled in the location of old Levi’s blue jeans factory in San Antonio, Texas. To me, that’s a plus, I reckon.
Have you seen what’s happened to Levi’s jeans? It’s all I ever used to buy for denim, but no longer. They forwent the thick denim they used for decades to some thin stretch material. It’s shocking.
The primary motivation of the I.R.A. wasn’t about reducing inflation or solving climate change.
Democrats needed to reward their political donors, many of whom worked in the EV / wind / solar / green energy industries.
This is exactly what government subsidies do across every industry they interfere in (student loans, mortgages, …): jack up prices for consumers.
Wow, Congress pumps up EV prices with incentives just like the fed pumped up asset prices with QE and low interest rates. Who’da thunk it. So much for the “Free Market”.
It’s downright criminal in this era of scarce resources and excessive automotive deaths – more than 40,000 per year that they’re incentivizing oversized overpowered heavy vehicles that are toys for the wealthy. Yes we need more EV pickups and Hummers on the road. Yes, let’s reward domestic manufacturers who willingly abandoned affordable economical vehicles. Makes sense. Not.
I was ready to go all-in on a Lightning, charge/backup port, battery and solar panels, until I saw the greed-fest and lack of inventory (and heard that Ford’s partner for solar charging is iffy). I’m in the country and on a well, and no power means no water as well (no natgas for a generator, either; diesel is a no-go for me). Guess I’ll just have to hope the local irrigation/power company keeps its act together for a few more years.
Ford raising its prices the week after the EV credit enactment is a slap in the face to Biden. It reminds me of the time Obama approved the bailout of Goldman and other banking outfits, which then paid record bonuses the following season. Why are political figures so naive at times?
I can’t say it’s just the Democrats. Trump gave out massive corporate tax cuts with a promise US companies would invest in the US, and they bought back stock instead.
The lesson is NEVER expect corporations to have allegiance to anyone/anything except shareholders. Corporate morality is a sales pitch.
Corporate buybacks should have made illegal with the passage of the tax cuts.
Funny how this works. Same with college tuition!
I have been waiting for a Plug In (PHEV) Toyota Prius Prime for well over a year. My local dealer finally let me know one was coming in. The $7500 tax credit expired on 9/30/2022. Now the tax credit is $2251 if purchased before 12/31/2022. The VIN is JTDKAMFP9N3227713. The base is $30,550 which would have been a screaming buy with the insane Federal gift of $7500 (which is now gone). The dealer added $699 in whatever (used to be undercoating) and delivery fee is $1010. The additional Dealer Markup Profit is listed as MVA (perhaps Wolf Richter can decipher this) for $5000 for a total of $37,259 (plus taxes and fees).
Keep it.
The best part of my day is experiencing Wolf Richter’s wisdom.
MVA = Market Value Adjustment
We used to call it ADP = Additional Dealer Profit.
But I agree, “Market Value Adjustment” sounds a heck of a lot better than “Additional Dealer Profit.”
Guess we will see how CHN+VNM BEV Makers fare as they enter the Murican Market. If the Quality is “up to snuff” (Reference – TSLA Build Quality is considered “SubPar” by several Mechanics), they’ll sell well.
No “Enlargement Act” Incentives for Imports? Something tells me that it won’t affect the CHN+VNM Makers too much.
If they need to, they’ll build Assembly+Parts Plants in Murica – say, TX.
*****
I’d prefer to see Incentives for:
A) Building out CNG Conversion (e.g., Diesel to CNG) and CNG/Hydrogen Fuel Distribution Infrastructures for Vehicles; and
B) Building and Selling CNG/Hydrogen powered Vehicles.
*E.g., Hydrogen can be StreamFracked from CNG. Enough on this for now.
IMO, it’s better to introduce CNG/Hydrogen into the Vehicular Choice Mix for the “Tailpipe Solution”; and modify the current Legislation accordingly.
BEVs are starting to be offered by more Automakers and due to be Mandated in Murica; but I don’t know if Murican Market Automakers are making/importing enough to meet those Legislative Mandates.
With the current BEV Tech, Murica will need to mine far more Copper, Lithium, etc. in order to facilitate a Industry Shifting “BEV Majority” in Annual New Automobile Sales.
EV Large Trucks may be selling; but I’m starting to see YouTubers demonstrating EV shortcomings of Load+Range. When the “Early Adopter Surge” settles, they’ll probably end up selling more for Suburban/Ex-Urban “Commuter/LocalBiz/Home Use” who don’t live where Winters are too Cold.
Jalopnik just did an in-depth review of a Vietnamese BEV from VinFast. Summation: it’s crap.
Read it.
PR Disaster in VNM.
Not much of an “In Depth Review” of the Car – more like a Sob Story Drama about the Trip by the Writer.
No Test Drive of the USA-bound Model. No Performance Stats, just a Show Presentation.
Writer is of full of crap if he thinks TSLAs are well made.
****
We’ll need to see who does theirs right for the USA Market.
I sold my house in San Diego in Apr 2018. I bought a Condo in Rosarito Beach, MX in Dec 2017. After slowly moving there, I saw that the property I lived at had both a Tesla and the Level 2 Battery chargers available
Rosarito is only 30 miles or so from San Diego and about 45 from where my house was. . I looked in to a couple of EVs and ended up leasing a 2018 Nissan Leaf. The stated range was 150 miles. The final incentives were the 7,500 tax refund, a $2,000 rebate check from Cali, a card from Nissan giving me 2 years of charging for free not to mention the ability to (legally lol) drive in the HOV lanes which was an added bonus driving the Socal highways.
For mw… it was a PERFECT solution. I got to drive up to SD, do my things, head back home to Rosarito and charge it in the parking lot. If necessary, I’d charge in the States at a Level 3 which took about 35-45 minutes depending…. I’d bring along a book or my Kindle, listen to music, read and smoke a few cigs while waiting. It was just something I planned on and in 2018/2019 I only had to wait while the chargers were in use about 3 or 4 times… no biggie…
My point is, EVs as currently made (and in the near future) are NOT going to be the solution for the masses… too many issues. How are people in larger cities who need to park on the street going to charge?
I think for a good while to come, EVs are a niche market at best. It can be great for some (like me… I LOVED my Leaf), but I guess that’s the price of progress.. BTW, I did see where for the first time in about 10 years the price of Lithium is expected to increase……. and exactly how are all these older electric batteries going to be disposed of? Inquiring minds want to know…
PS The KICKER in my Nissan Leaf story is that management at the Hotel/Condo Bldg I live at changed the rules on me and stopped allowing me to charge my car at the Hotel… Guests only. I’m an owner.. not a guest. Another learning example of… This is Mexico…where the rules change regularly… And acceptance is the answer.. (Pg 417 used to 449.. a little reference to us friends of Bill!)…
as it was the ONLY Level 2 charging station in Rosarito i had no choice but to sell it JUST as the pandemic hit… boy, if only I could’ve held on to it for a few more years… the used value of it with really low miles went through the roof…
Your wondering how people who park on streets with street lights, traffic lights and parking meters will be able to charge their automobiles?
Yeah, that’s EXACTLY what I’m asking…so.. you live in a city w/ apt bldgs. Lots of card, few spots and believe it or not, not every block has traffic lights… as far as I know, the city doesn’t lay out electricity outlets for anyone to use. Even if they ended up doing so, they’d have to have credit card machines attached to pay for all the electricity being used. This would also have the effect of raising demand during so-called off-peak hours which would raise prices and put a bigger burden on the electric grid. Also, you’ve got to have an electric charging adapter. I could only imagine a city street full of cars with electric charging adapters MIGHT just attract a large group of thieves looking for easy, sellable commodities to be able to afford whatever are their needs of the day…. what could POSSIBLY go wrong in this scenario?
That stuff is just funny. I just looked at the charging stations in San Diego. They’re EVERYWHERE. There are a gazillion of them.
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC
I know that from San Francisco. They’re hard to see because they’re so small, but once you look back there in the corner of the Walgreen’s parking lot, sure enough, there’s a charging station. But you may not be able to see it when driving by. There are a LOT more charging stations than gas stations in California.
Not sure about Mexico though.
Wolf, There ARE a lot of charging stations there, though not too many Level 3 (the fast ones). Level 2 chargers (the vast majority) took me about 4-6 hours to charge from 25% to 90%.
I was talking about if and when EVs become the majority of vehicles on the streets. It’s one thing to put up charging stations at Malls (where I used to find them) and another thing for people needing to charge up after they get home from work or a trip. I think until the infrastructure for charging stations (especially Level 3) changes dramatically, it’ll remain a growing and not insignificant, but still more of a niche market for the foreseeable future. I will add the caveat of my future visionary abilities limited at best :-)
As a point of clarity, Level 1 charging is just a home type outlet. On my relatively small Leaf battery, it would take about 14-20 hours to go from A 10% CHARGE UP TO 90%.
When I had my Leaf, there were many charging stations. I wouldn’t say there were more than gas stations. When you look for an EV station, each charger is considered a station, and might occupy a car for between a half hour and4 hours depending. A gas station might have upwards of 12-16 pumps, each becoming available quickly.
One day (after I was disallowed to use the Charger at my Condo in Mexico), I would use a Level 3 charger (w/ 2 stations) in San Ysidro, CA right near the border. One time, I ran into a situation where there were already 2 cars that had recently started charging and 2 cars were there next in line. It took about 90 minutes or so BEFORE it became my turn which took another 40 minutes to charge. I had no other choice by that time, once I had decided on charging at San Ysidro, because there were no other Level 3’s nearby and I estimated my mileage remaining at under 10 miles. RANGE ANXIETY is a REAL THING!
If you have a garage or a driveway to park your car in, that’s doable. If you don’t, you end up always having to plan around where, how and when you’re going to do that. That was my experience during my trips back into San Diego.
I was thinking about areas where the density of people living in close proximity was high and parking was at the curb.
Just passing on my experiences and thoughts about my time owning an EV….
I’m finally done now, Wolf… lol
This is just nonsense. Don’t compare your situation in Mexico and your old Leaf from years ago with how life is for daily users in the US with standard EVs, not old el-cheapo LEAFs.
you moved to Mexico because it’s cheaper, well then, it means it’s cheaper. Don’t expect to get all the conveniences in Mexico what you get in San Diego. That’s YOUR decision and YOUR problem. Don’t extrapolate from your life in Mexico to the life in the US.
I have a fried with a Tesla, upgraded from a Leaf, who lives here in San Francisco with no garage. He commutes every day to Novato (North Bay), which is a pretty good drive. He used to do it with his Leaf (maybe earlier version than yours), and he’d have to recharge every day, and it was fine too because he worked on stuff on this laptop in the car. Now with this Tesla he charges less often. When he does, he works in his car, or does emails or whatever. He loves the Tesla, but wasn’t very happy with the Leaf because of its very short range.
You said: “One time, I ran into a situation where there were already 2 cars that had recently started charging and 2 cars were there next in line. It took about 90 minutes or so BEFORE it became my turn…”
What kind of person are you to wait forever instead of going to the next charging station a few blocks away?
There are THREE charging stations (level 2 and higher) in San Ysidro, right by the border, plus a whole bunch more a few minutes away — and you’re too lazy and just sit on your butt and wait and complain, instead of using your app to find out where the next available charging station is? Or are you just spreading BS here???
I miss breakfast at Rene’s, early morning paddles outs at K38-37.5
there was a great private community with beachfront old hotel down below Rene’s, forgot the name, met Titanic cast in bar of hotel, little north of boat shoot, they were all staying in community
We were pulling a whaler down to Loreto for couple weeks fishing and diving, running out of gas, el rosario gas was stop was out, pulled into Bay of LA turn off and guy had barrel of gas on truck with hand pump. We pulled in said fill her up and asked him price and he said $2 a liter, that was high, we asked him why so much and he grinned because chu are here…we paid happily….
how is the town now days?
Hey cd, Rosarito is a GREAT town to live in now…It;s been built out a bunch since my partying days coming down here in the late 80’s when the main drag, Blvd. Benito Juárez was mainly still cobblestone for a good portion. I was fortunate to come here just as the latest wave of ex-pats were moving here, and got in at a really good price at the Rosarito Beach Hotel & Condos. They built an 18 floor (271 unit) condo bldg next door to the hotel right into the GFC and almost all of the units were foreclosed by Banorte, the lending bank. They held on to them until about 5 years ago and began selling them for cash only (no mortgages). They sold all of them in just over a year and prices have gone up over 50% since…
They’re still doing a lot of building out here and I think the boom here will last a few years after US housing crashed (already started I know), because there will be continued supply/demand imbalances with all the folks leaving and coming here for the lower prices AND (believe it or not), a more civil, quiet and peaceful way of life. ESPECIALLY in the off-season (Oct – Mar) where even the weekends are not busy…
Rene’s moved downtown not far from me and Tacos Yaqui is still the best Taco in town. I love it here….
Looks like fiscal policy uncoordinated from monetary policy to me.
Why am I not surprised?
Ford should raise the price if people are willing to pay for it. My buddy’s very successful son (mid-30s) paid $82K for a Lightning early summer. Drove it on a family vacation to the beach 8 hours away. The trip took 12 hours each way considering wait and charging times.
He loved the truck but long trips were not practical and he sold it. He got $105K for it.
Our government is way too big and way too inefficient (and I might as well throw in way too corrupt).
There is a Youtuber who bought a Rivian and logged his experience in driving from one of the Carolina’s to his home in Boston. He’s not an EV hater (has a business servicing them). However, he pointed out the similar situations he encountered to those of your son. The charging stations in smaller cities (despite the ability of the vehicle to show where the stations are located) were either broken, low output, and usually several miles from the interstate. He accounted of how he was “saved” by a guy running a B&B that allowed him to use his charging station on his driveway as he was about out of power due to searching for a working location.
That’s the reality of EV’s. They’re fine for city dwellers. Not so fine for remote folks or people that drive through such places. Out in my little slice of heaven, there are no chargers other than those in people’s garages. Just did a search for public charging stations from my zip code….. a grand total of 4 within a 10 mile radius of the centerpoint.
They probably make great vehicles for local driving. But for long trips, you might still want to have an ICE vehicle in your garage, too.
El Katz,
Did I tell about the one when I ran out of gas???
I did by car, and I did it by motorcycle. At night, out in the countryside. Texas. On my motorcycle it went like this: First gas station closed. Second closed. Didn’t make it to the third. Shit happens. It wasn’t the fault of my car or my motorcycle that I ran out of gas.
My wife ran out of gas too. It wasn’t the fault of the car either. This happens all the time.
But when an EV runs out of juice, it’s a sign that EVs don’t work? A “YouTuber” LOL. When I run out of gas, I’m going to do a YouTube video on it? That effing idiot YouTuber. People are hilarious without knowing it.
And the funny thing is, my 2019 Aprilia Tuono does not have a fuel gauge. I do keep a gas can filled with the best non-ethanol gas I can find, 91 octane, and top it off in the garage before riding.
The traction control and ABS are both adjustable and lean-angle calibrated, but it ain’t got no fuel gauge. Oh well…
I never owned a motorcycle that had a fuel gauge. But that was back in the day when disk brakes were new and dirt was young. You opened the tank and leaned the bike, and if you couldn’t see anything move in there, you went to the gas station. If you ran out while riding, you flipped the “reserve” switch on your gas tank that gave you maybe 20 more miles, and after a while you started praying.
I owned a car in college for four years that had a broken gas gauge and a broken speedometer, and not the time or funds to fix them. I never got a ticket or ran out of gas. I could judge speed by the engine sound and wind noise. I could judge fuel by simply keeping track of my drive time. Tech is easier, yet I didn’t feel it was kind of fun keeping track via being more consciously aware…
Personally I think the Fed gov should fund all the required EV charging stations and make them part of the Interstate structure, as many cities simply don’t have the funds, like San Francisco with the $728 million two-year deficit according to Bloomberg news. Even the rich places seem broke somehow even after trillions of pandemic handouts…
Charging stations are a profit opportunity for the private sector, just like gas stations are a profit opportunity. Like the charging station down the street here, in a corner of a Walgreen’s parking lot. Walgreen leases the building. The landlord took three parking spots and converted them to charging stations. He took three parking spots that were earning the landlord nothing and turned them into an income stream.
The landlord makes money off the electricity sales (the difference between his cost from PG&E and the selling price to the EV owner). There are other deals like that. They don’t all work out. Not all gas stations work out.
You need to have enough EV business to make this work, and like many investments, the profit may take a little while to materialize. These are long-term investments with some up-front costs (not that much if you already own the parking lot) and an income stream for many many years.
$7,500 EV credits for F150 EVs, then the price goes up $16k.
And they tell us Government spending has no impact on inflation?
I’d insert a smiley face, but it isn’t funny in the least.
There’s no “perfect” in money theory. Save yourself some anguish. Fiat,or Gold & Silver coins, pay the Bank to hold them, or have the Bank pay you to invest them. There’s no perfect. Time preference exists.
A goodtime to buy a used, late model car in 2023?
Big lithium find in Maine, but the anti-mine environmentalists signal a no-go. NIMBY
My family has two small EVs (a BMW i3 and a VW id.3) which is perfect when you can charge at home. I don’t get why you’d even consider buying a big heavy EV at 1/2 the miles/kWh. What a waste of energy. And money.
Same thing has been happening with college tuition for decades. The more congress puts into Pell grants, the higher the tuition goes. Exact same economics.
The Gambit by Ford on taking orders and never delivering may alienate buyers from the brand. Be it the $80k Lightning, or the $20k Maverick. If you can not produce the product, do not take orders.
What they didn’t tell anyone when they passed the Infation Reduction Act is that the touted benefit accrues when the Act sunsets.
It isn’t just the EVs. To replace my 2021 Platinum Expedition is about +$6000, and when I ordered a 2023 Platinum F250 to “replace” the 2022 Platinum F250 that I ordered and never showed up, it was +$6500.
We only drive vehicles like this because they are deductible corporate transactions we pay cash for. The business has been debt free for over a decade, so you have to spend it on something or pay taxes.
EV vans as delivery vans are a terrible idea.
I recently started driving the Amazon EV vans.
They are interesting to drive but an impracticable choice as a daily work van.
The first day I drove an EV, the heater did not work properly.
Granted it dropped into the teens but the heater on high settings was blowing cold air.
The cargo area is like walking into a refrigerated storeroom.
The automatic opening cargo door did not work on first van I drove and the elective side mirrors did not work on either van that I drove.
Both vans had less that 1,000 miles on them.
Amazon wants to run these vans 10 hours a day, 7 days a week.
The route that I ran yesterday was close to the warehouse and when I arrived back, I noticed the battery was at 42%. The batteries in these vehicles are not going to last very long.
191 stops with 260 locations.
For every delivery made, both the cargo and passenger doors must opened. In freezing temperatures with a sub par heating system, drivers are going to walk.
Sounds like you’re testing one of the test models Amazon bought. Seems like they’re doing some cold-weather testing on them. And you’re the test driver, LOL