From ridiculously overvalued to troubled.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Despite the rally on Friday, the shares of Meta Platforms lost more ground, falling 1.0% to $159.10 at the close, and more after-hours, same price where the shares had first been on July 13, 2017. Five years of nothing, with an exciting roller-coaster-ride in between. Four years and two months up, 10 months down. Since the peak in September 2021, the shares have plunged 59%.
Meta still doesn’t qualify for my growing list of Imploded Stocks, for which the minimum requirement is a 70% plunge from the peak, but it’s working hard to get there (data via YCharts):
The market value plunged from $1.077 trillion in September to $431 billion today. So, $647 billion have vanished in 10 months.
This is no biggie obviously because people who bought the shares at the IPO for $38, and thereby participated in the biggest tech IPO in US history at the time, still made 318% at today’s price, and the shares could fall another 50%, and they’d still make a ton of money. Those who bought in 2021, OK, win some, lose some.
And this dump in market cap caused something else to happen over the past two days: While other stocks surged, Meta fell out of the top 10 most valuable companies in the US, into 11th place, behind Visa (data via YCharts):
Back in September 2021, Meta, with a market cap of $1.077 trillion, was the fifth most valuable stock by market cap in the US. Easy come, easy go (data via YCharts):
Despite the summer rally, the Nasdaq composite is still down 23.6% from the peak in November, and lots of stocks slid, skidded, and plunged, and this re-arranged the deck a little among the top 11, but left the top four in the same position.
There are a host of reasons for Meta’s plunge, including that the shares should have never shot up in this crazy manner in the first place. But hey, this was the pandemic, the Fed was printing money hand over fist, the Fed’s interest rates were near 0% even as inflation had begun to rage, and nothing mattered, everything shot higher. To the moon!
Well not everything, because I had already been at the time documenting Imploded Stocks since earlier in 2021. But it just took Facebook, I mean Meta, till September before it started the descent.
And there are a host of additional reasons why the shares should have plunged, and did plunge, including the first revenue decline as a public company; a spike in expenses; a 35% plunge in net income; and the dubious future of Facebook – I mean, is anyone other than boomers still using it?
Then there’s Apple’s “Ask app not to track” prompt on iPhones, which cut into the ability of Meta to spy on iPhone users, and therefore it cuts into Meta’s revenues in a big way. Then there’s the slowing ad business in general at the moment, and likely going forward, and Meta makes most of its revenues from ads.
And there’s a bunch of other stuff, including all kinds of legal stuff, such as getting sued by the Federal Trade Commission this week over Meta’s acquisition of virtual-reality company Within Unlimited, with which Meta is trying to do what Big Tech always does, namely to buy any potential or actual competition that gets in the way of total domination.
In this case, Within Unlimited would get in the way of Meta’s hoped-for total domination of the metaverse, which I’m too boneheaded and old-fashioned to even comprehend, because I like to drink an actual beer not a virtual beer, and be with actual friends not avatars, real life in all its grittiness being precious to me, and not replaceable by a headset, Meta’s software, and avatars representing anonymous people with headsets on.
Actual reality is just fine with me, and the virtual reality of the metaverse has no value to me, not even virtual value, and I don’t understand why it would have any value to anyone else. And if enough people think that way, it would be a bummer for Meta.
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If the price to see Facebook / Meta eradicated from the earth is for everyone who invested to be able to cash out at a significant mark-up and allowing those ghouls to ride off into the sunset with their capital gains so long as nothing like it ever comes about again, that’s a cost I’m willing to shoulder.
I’m sure that company has done some innovative things, but Zuckerberg is a walking moral hazard engine engineering ways to hijack attention at a net negative to the products, I mean the people. We need more ethical tech companies.
Innovative like hating 50%+ of their existing customer base?
Or betting the house on a glorified video game?
Unlike government, Meta actually has to pay debts and taxes.
Image how much better FB would be today if they didn’t go w0ke and stuck to what they did extremely well, being a giant advertising cash machine.
“ Or betting the house on a glorified video game?”
2b,
The metaverse is only another advertising vehicle for FB…
There’s nowhere left for them to go to increase ad revenue…
Ad revenue is the only thing they have and hyping the ‘ Verse seems a last desperate moon shot….
Virtual assets and artificial scarcity is all these f***ing con men have left. At least when I buy an emote or glamour in my virtual game, there’s an artistic and functional value to it, and I know the money I pay goes to supporting additional content and keeping the game servers alive. I’m not looking at it as something I need to flip my worthless dog s*** onto someone else I’m taking advantage of.
These virtual assets for the purpose of selling to a greater fool? Sociopathic madness from folks desperate for fast money refusing to accept their limits. If I have to credit these a**holes for one thing, it’s helped me see how much hustle and BS is apparent in marketing speech, but maybe that’s just me getting old enough to fall out of that 18-39 demographic that’s so exploitable for its disposable income, poor impulse control, and ignorance.
Seriously, who wants to advertise on a bad cartoon show?
How do you get an honest audit on eye-balls and clicks (not the same person or a bot clicking over and over again) ?
It seems to me that advertisers are the fools.
I am bombarded by Gooble ads from an industrial company (rb) I have dealt with for 40 years. I will never buy anymore stuff than I already do, and if this nonsense from Gooble doesn’t stop, I will drop the company from all my purchases.
What a waste of money advertising on the Internet to customers you already have.
The metaverse is DOA. VR has been in development since I was a kid. 30+ years later, I’m not impressed with the results.
Going Woke as a prejorative was cute a couple years ago. Tired at this point. In case you haven’t been paying attention, FB is more than fine supporting conservatives and the malicious political actors manipulating them.
Their issue is that they have no place to grow their giant advertising and data harvesting cash machine. They can’t buy TikTok, which is making Facebook look like MySpace right now. So creating a virtual reality where they get a cut on every interaction and transaction, they being the private government of this space collecting their version of taxes is what Zuck bet the future of the company on.
And to be clear: any sane, rational individual does not want The Matrix. I don’t care how far the technology comes. Our society has become fairly atomized, and I don’t see good things coming from going further and having all interactions mediated through Ready Player One.
In all the internet, with all the innovatives and new tech daily…
A cringe 15 sec video app, of mostly cringe teenagers complaining about cringe stuff, will destroy your company?
“They can’t buy TikTok, which is making Facebook look like MySpace right now.”
“Their issue is that they have no place to grow their giant advertising and data harvesting cash machine”
I agree with you on advertising, but disagree on data harvesting. They may have a good buyer with really deep pockets for all that data – the intrusive government that is looking for ways to police the population more effectively (remember 1984 novel ?)
2banna will you please turn out the lights when you leave Facebook?
Facebook woke? That’s hilarious.
Could NOT agree more LK:
Some and STUPID friends and family earning that appelation due to their adherence to face hook and so much similar the last couple decades and when confronted make totally nonsense replies.
IMHO, the zuck/suck and all those similar need to go home to mama, where their constant sucking off the teats etc., at least might be somewhat OK…
Time and enough to ”clean up” the entire medium, especially including those who will ”harvest” any and all data WE, in this case the gullible WE, have allowed them to harvest and then use that data to harm us in ways that are only beginning to be known…
Meta, like Google are parasites that make money off your data. I’ve owned both stocks but no longer use their products. I have a de-googled phone. I sold my shares of both companies and will never own again. Everytime I think about when I owned those shares I feel like I need to take a shower.
That’s not going to fix anything, another android lizard will pop up to replace the Zuck. We need to repair the system that allows psychos to gain so much power.
Zuck stole the business idea and he was merely a really good programmer at the right place at the right time. He has no real moral compass, is probably a sociopath.
Of course, a world ruled by TickTok is even worse. Why dont we just surrender to the Chinese government right now?
“…I mean, is anyone other than boomers still using it?”
This boomer’s not. Stopped using it 5 years ago; biggest waste of online time I’ve ever seen.
This boomer tried to join – they told me I didn’t “meet community standards”
See ya (not)
This boomer isn’t either. I briefly watched part of Zuckerberg’s 2018 congressional testimony. He comes across as a condescending and slick huckster. The thought of continually feeding his company personal data through FB posts is not appealing.
My kid told me a while back that the coolest thing is to never have been on Facebook. Guess I’m a cool kid. Yikes.
“I wish I could be like the cool kids”
I bailed on FB about 8 years ago. Never call it Meta just Fakebook.
Calling it Meta gives Zuckerberg exactly what he wants. F*** him.
I am surprised at how many small businesses have a FB site but not a regular accessible internet homepage online. Me, the potential customer, would need a FB account to access their business information. But I don’t, won’t, and ergo they miss out on my potential business.
MiTurn,
That is something that I too don’t understand. If I want to look at a company’s products, and maybe buy them, I sure as hell don’t want to have to go to a Facebook link to do so.
“ I sure as hell don’t want to have to go to a Facebook link to do so.”
I’m with you, Dan…
I WILL NOT go to FB to see anything…
It’s much cheaper to create a page on Facebook (free) than having an actual website (not free.) Then you leave the Facebook page open to the public and that’s it, you can go by with that.
A guy I know (member of my ROMEO group) ordered a power tool through a Facebook ad a year or so ago. He sent $99.00 via credit card. Got a shipping email and then one that said the tool was delayed, long enough to make it past the 60 day CC requirement to void the transaction. The tool never came (from China, of course) and he’s still waiting.
Facebook request for help was never answered.
True story….Buyer beware!
My wife has a small online business and has found Instagram a useful way to reach out to people, BUT….to have an IG account, you have to have a FB page. More recently she is second thinking her IG account since literally every other post is either an ad or suggested link. She is now looking for alternative ways to reach new customers.
I deactivated all my IG and FB accounts about a year ago, complete toxic wasteland of self-absorbed morons (including family and friends ha ha ha). Very refreshing.
“complete toxic wasteland of self-absorbed morons…”
For some folks, such as my daughter-in-law, it is an addiction. Things to her aren’t ‘real’ until they’re posted on FB.
I have an IG account but no Facebook account.
I’m relieved that we appear to have passed through “peak FB”. It had gone from a fun social-sharing site to something invasive and insidious. I got out as soon as I saw ads targeting me, at the expense of being able to lurk and troll, activities that were not particularly virtuous anyway.
Yep. Every small biz should have a website. It’s very inexpensive.
All you need is a simple static HTML page including, what you do, location, hours, contact info and a link to your FB site (yes you should have both).
I had a very small part time business (weekends) and one day a couple of guys showed up from a thousand miles away.
“How the heck did you find us???”
“We’re doing a test flight for an experimental aircraft. Found your website on Google on the way.”
Boomer here. I never used it, much to the consternation of my siblings. But I never really did care about what they ate for dinner at whatever trendy place they ate it.
Now my kids, millennials all, they are big Facebookers.
I guess I’ll never really get the hang of all this ‘social media’ stuff.
My 76 year old wife is on FB daily with her kids from a previous marriage. She sits at the kitchen table and does whatever she does with her iPad. I go out and do something as I can’t stand the FB chatter from her iPad. The damn thing is full of obnoxious videos too. It’s too late to divorce her and start over as my choices wouldn’t be too great at this age.
Wow, so full of love
😂😂😂 try Colombia. You will be much happier
About 3 years ago I got so fed up with FB and reading all that crap about what these loser relatives of mine were doing I deleted all my friends and then deleted my FB account. That’s freedom.
I still have my account but almost never use it. Primarily to communicate with a handful of friends and acquaintances who live outside the US.
I have never posted a single entry on my home page in 14 years.
AF,
The key fact is that advertising makes up a huge pct of all internet revenue…and that is a finite mkt (and recession vulnerable for players of FB and Google’s size).
The internet players have likely taken nearly as much as revenue from the traditional outlets as they are likely to (although linear TV still gets way too much revenue in my opinion) – and other ad outlets have always been recession vulnerable in any event.
Bottom line, Google and FB are huge players in a very finite industry, one that correlates heavily with general economic health.
So it is only natural that their absurdly over optimistic PEs have started to return to earth (well, for FB).
Facebook/Meta has got it coming, no doubt. Describing what the company was doing as “spying” does not paint a dark enough picture of what the company was and continues to do with personal information.
The experience of a “metaverse” or “VR” as it has been portrayed so far is no better depiction of where where computer interaction is going than moving sidewalks at the 1864 world’s fair were of the future of transportation.
Wolf, trust your instincts. Facebook’s awful presentation of this technology says more about about the level of desperation that drove Zuckerburg to rebrand his company than it does about the tech.
That said, if possible suspend your disbelief that a company will get a headset technology, personal connectivity and even the ability to use it in-person to a level of quality that you will be able to experience it and your real world beer at the same time.
This stuff is going to be mind mindbogglingly good, but only because there are people working on it who know people like you exist and that you would reject the kind of product experience you’ve described.
These talented people are not at Facebook / Meta, but even if they were the company lacks a halo of services and user trust needed to succeed.
A bet against Facebook should not be due to lack of belief in AR/VR/XR as the next big computer platform. Because it will be. It should be because Facebook lacks class, any sense of style and can’t execute at the level of sophistication needed to win in this arena.
I love real actual life and real actual people, and have zero interest in replacing them with virtual reality and avatars. That’s totally nuts. Go for the real thing. YOLO. And I’m not the only one out there that thinks that way, and that’s a problem for all these VR mongers such as Meta.
Virtual friends don’t spread germs. That’s their only upside.
True, but then, a real physical germ would be much less harmful than virtual germs that manipulate our very thoughts.
You sure? Remember this little thing called Covid?
NO, it is absolutely NOT ANY UPSIDE SJO:
The day to day ”sharing” of ””germs”’ in each and every face to face hmn interaction is most likely the very very best thing that has enabled our species to at least keep up marginally with cockroaches,,,
Cockroaches being, AFAIK, the only other species than hmns, that are equally distributed on our planet/globe/etc.
Anyone care to contribute to this, I, for one, would be very happy to see some other similar result reported with, perhaps, a bit more data than this old boy has seen in the last few decades.
Thank you.
VVN is spot on with this. Our immune systems wouldn’t be as robust as they are now without having interactions and exposure to “germs” over our lifetimes.
I love real life but I love the comments section of Wolfstreet and all I see there are people’s aliases and not even avatars. So clearly there is some demand for some digital interaction.
I totally agree with Rob that the AR/VR story today is complete trash but imagine what it will be like when you can “teleport” to your real friend’s house to play a game of poker or drink a beer or whatever and both of you will see holograms of each other and will interact almost the same way as in person. That will truly be the magic. People though video chats wouldn’t be a thing because they had audio phones. Holograms will replace video chats at some point will being way more immersive.
There is already a market for VR, and it just replaces flat-panel computer screens: video gaming, porn, some medical uses, etc. But that’s not enough for Meta to stake its future on. It’s not even in these businesses. What Meta is trying to do is get people to spend much of their real lives and money in VR, which is nuts.
The only place I would have interest for VR would be a VR headset for my drone. FPV from 300 feet above would be nice. But that would need the camera and transmission technologies to catchup. Other than that I think ready player one was the stupidest idea ever.
I don’t think the ‘killer app’ for VR has been invented yet. It definitely won’t be invented at Facebook due to their hyper focus on making it an advertising platform.
I think a small company will invent ‘the next big thing’.
Those wearable contact lens displays being developed seem fascinating.
I tried VR googles once, using a cellphone. It was too incredible. I think that it could become addicting.
No thanks. Know thyself and all that…
VR has its place. For Sim racing, it’s definitely a must. The level of immersion you can it’s second to none. Other than that, I would not want to use or see VR as replacement to a lot of real life things, especially not VR conference call, bad enough to have to be there in person but replace that with a awkward layer of wannabe reality..no thanks
Josh, holograms already existed a long time ago, albeit in a galaxy far, far away.
“Help me Obi Wan Kenobi, you’re my only hope…”
My 8 year old wants the Meta headset. Made it clear why it ain’t happening. Many of my IRL friends spawned from message boards in social media’s infancy, and 20-odd years later of knowing great people I would have otherwise never met, it feels mighty hypocritical to ban my kids from it but I don’t want them falling into the data mine trap.
Ditched FB a few years back, still keep IG for those cross-country friends who are totally social media dependent, but could do without it myself, especially now that its going full-on into stories, reels, and AI-dictated feed generation. Meta headgear reminds me of the VR goggles farmers put on cows to simulate them standing in a field (and not knee deep in cow plop on a filthy cement floor) to stimulate milk production.
Social media = human livestock. Lovely.
Fiat credit is the foundation of all the current waves of economic unreality in all their various forms. Meta just takes fiat to it’s logical and obvious extreme … Nothingness. We have a long way to go to return to reality.
“AR/VR/XR as the next big computer platform. Because it will be.”
I love virtual worlds I love computer games and I even love VR.
But I get motion sickness from VR and so do most people I know. I can only use VR for maybe 1-2 hours per week. I just don’t see how a product that makes many people want to puke can become more than a niche technology.
+1,000,000 thumbs up. I am with you in the real world, Wolf, with all its flaws & aggravations.
We’re approaching the stage of internet abuse Larry Niven termed “wireheads” with the cronic use of handheld cellphones everywhere & at any time. What would happen if we were a actually plugged in?
Wolf, you are actually underestimating the vastness of mental health issues, that the new generation has. Therefore, as young people become more and more disillusioned with themselves (their body image, social status …), as many studies have shown (e.g. 50 % of interviewed children, aged 12-16, declared that they intend to have estetic surgeries in the future), they’ll need a refuge (VR, metaverse).
I also wouldn’t be so sure that older disillusioned people will regress (as a hardcore Freudian fan). And there is nothing greater than VR for those purposes (especially in VR sex related industry).
“ Wolf, you are actually underestimating the vastness of mental health issues, that the new generation has”
BS…
They don’t have mental health issues… they have a severe case of being intelligently corrupt…
You can blame that on shitty parenting, participation trophies, and babysitting video games…
75% of age eligible males can’t physically qualify for even the lowest military standard…
And the military, believe it or not, has a “fat camp” to try to minimally qualify a recruit for service…
Add in the ad industry pummeling these kids every single moment of every day with the pretty people telling them they’re special…
They sure are… as long as they have money to spend…
Add in how they try to copy “ the look”… such as the ugly scraggliest beard that looks like shit…
Not many originals that I see floating around out there… just bunch of whiner copycat drones…
You know, after rereading my post I’ve changed my mind…
They are frigging mentally ill… but you can’t fix it… only getting hammered in real life, acknowledging and and taking ownership for your screwup and then fixing it will be the cure…
The new generation? Nothing tops the mental illnesses manifested by the Boomers. Half or more have actual diagnosed mental illnesses of one kind or another. The new generations are refreshingly sane!
I got unfriended in real life by a few “friends” because I ditched FB and refused to rejoin the party.
Sad.
Agree.
The “metaverse” is a pretend world. Heard Meta is selling “real estate” there and someone supposedly paid several million for something there.
If true, it’s idiotic.
Yes, but remember that the young people cannot afford to go out, take vacations, or own anything valuable. These experiences will only be available in the VR space.
Plenty of young tourists here in San Francisco right now. Not sure how they got here, but they’re here.
Zoom,emails,textsand even letters through the post are good for friends who have moved away. I get a lot more contact that way than I would if we had to meet in person. That’s where they are aiming. The big question is does the metaverse add any value over a zoom call
Much of what you said may be true, but it is bit misinformed to say that FB/Meta does not have talented people working on AR/VR. There’s a reason they have the best selling VR HMD at the moment.
I remember using the Nintendo Virtual Boy back in middle school. I didn’t like it then and I don’t like it now.
VR has been trying to catch on for 30 years and still hasn’t.
OMG, Virtual Boy. Cool concept but that red only display couple with not so good 3D, it’s good at inducing aneurysm and seizures and that’s about it.
I will have no problem resisting VR just like I have no problem resisting video games. Because they are time-sucking vortex of potential addiction with nothing but the occasional dopamine hit to show for it.
No thanks.
I’ll defend video games. They can be extremely addicting, as the Mobile Games market and the monetization strategies there shows. I have lost my fair share on digital goods. They can be shovelware exploiting the fans of certain properties to keep some annual business release cycle going (*coughUbisoftcough*).
They can also be interactive entertainment experiences unlike any other medium, tell stories none other can, and deliver moments and characterization you won’t find anywhere else. And they can be fun in moderation, although I’m still working on the moderation bit. Poor genetics.
However, I don’t blame anyone who chooses to spend their time elsewhere. But maligning video games is like maligning food because McDonald’s exists.
Imagine your 8 year old attending a VR drag show in a bunny avatar with a bunch of adults similarly cartoonified and sexualized.
This has already happened.
You should keep a closer eye on your children and not allow them unfettered access to the internet.
A neighbor of mine is one of those developers. He is also building an extension to his house, using the common car parking area (instead of his own driveway) to mix concrete, store materials, and dump waste from the project.
Who are these people that pay Facebook $100 Billion dollars per year, year after year. What are they smoking.
@andy–unfortunately, advertising works. It actually increases sales. Why would some random company spend good money to pay a printer to print and send out stuph to my mailbox that immediately goes unread into my recycle bin?
I had a fascinating conversation with the owner of a car dealership years ago and asked him why they spent so much on newspaper ads, no one actually reads them then jumps in their old car to go get a new one that day. He said the goal was to train your mind to associate “new quality car, good deal” with “Harper Motors.” and the more eyeballs they can get that message out to more frequently the better. FB sells eyeballs, your eyeballs, so you can be psychologically manipulated to be more apt to buy X from vendor Y.
Remember when facebook got busted claiming to have more users in several demographic groups and areas than actually exist?
Remember what Restoration Hardware CEO said about adwords?
I detest Zuckerberg and never used Facebook but it must be said that the real joke in that list is Tesla, run by a serial grifter and fraudster.
At least, Tesla manufactures real vehicles that people use on a daily basis to get around physically. That’s like the opposite of VR.
Couldn’t it be argued that VR induces altered mental states not otherwise experienced without it? Somewhat akin to recreational drugs manufactured and sold?
Zuckerberg is pure evil. END OF STORY.
Not that I’m expecting anyone to care about little old me, but I never signed up for Facebook ever since its inception in 2004 because I had a moral objection to Zuckerberg stealing the whole idea from the Winklevoss twins.
A coding prodigy such as Zuckerberg disregarding morals always felt troublesome to me somehow.
“A coding prodigy such as Zuckerberg disregarding morals always felt troublesome to me somehow.”
The vast array of gullible people empowering him concerns me more.
Take it from Mark: Dumb f***s.
I agree. The muppets created the monster called Meta/Facebook. They deserve everything that followed.
LK: I’m not so sure if stupidity (as Zuck claimed) and/or gullibility is the entire explanation behind why some would readily share their info. There is a large human need to feel appreciated, important, and valued as a part of a community or tribe which can lead people to irrational acts, as well.
I never went on it either because I read the TOS way back and noticed that they claim worldwide perpetual rights to everyone’s content and I recognized it for the creepy government honeypot that most of these “surveillance tech” companies are.
I wouldn’t be surprised if their end game will be to wall it off and sell people’s baby pictures back to them.
I wonder just how much these companies make selling people out to the government, doing things that are illegal for the government to do itself. It has to be a lot of money.
Seems that censorship is big business these days as well.
I’m still trying to understand why companies keep pouring their marketing budget into digital advertising on FB and the other social media sites. I’ve never interacted once with an advertisement. But yes it seems like only us boomers remain on FB and I’ve noticed a decrease in “engagement” so maybe FB will go the way of MySpace.
I agree. I use the normal ad-blockers that everyone should be using, and I see very few ads. Over the last year, I have seen about 3 “targeted” ads, i.e. ads that I was clearly seeing because I had searched for or otherwise researched a particular product.
In each case, the ad was much too late in time, I had either already made a purchase or had decided not to. And in no event would I ever actually act on a targeted ad, why encourage the bastards?
“ I agree. I use the normal ad-blockers that everyone should be using, and I see very few ads”
As do I…
However, I do donate to the Wolfster to negate his loss of income for his work…
I hope I’m on the plus side vs the revenue loss from ads…
An excellent solution that serves us both well…
Hopefully…
Zuckerberg Other than his name and face that pop up in the news this Baby Boomer generation does not know the Facebook generation. I too only want to experience life in person. I do love text, well written books comments from like minded people such as those in this forum but I have had no trouble finding opportunities to connect without Facebook. And to my knowledge I have never been asked about Facebook accounts etc.
So I wish the company the best for their future endeavors though I don’t understood their business model nor will I until they start to build outdoor recreation and transportation opportunities that are better than the exiting parks and recreation facilities that are available for a lower cost than currently exists.
1) Zuk Shmattes, for entertainment only.
2) Amazon built a 1Y Lazer tilting up between July 2020 and Nov 2021. In Jan 2022 AMZN lost it’s grip.
3) After two tests AMZN dropped below Feb 2020 high, leaving behind two
open gaps, completing a S-wave rd trip to Feb 2020, losing almost $70
on the chart.
4) AMZN is back, because US consumers are great. Options :
5) After closing one or two open gaps AMZN will test Feb/Mar 2020 again, before rising to the Lazer, osc inside, before forming a new vertical rise.
6) AMZN will breach Mar 2020 low and test the Feb 2018 hi/lo, before
rising to the Lazer, osc inside, before making a new bubble : bubble down/ bubble up in mid/late 2020’s.
So, bubble down or bubble up in 3 to 8 years. Got it.
7) After two S-waves to Feb/Mar 2020 a test of 2009 low. The big wave/
a bigger test.
The comments above are all reasons I never trusted or wanted to post on FB. The lack of ethics and Zuckerberg’s arrogance were solid reasons even before I noticed that my wife’s FB pages were overwhelmingly fifty-year college reunion arrangements and pictures of grandchildren. I realize this was inevitable given our demographic, but what twenty something wants to use a site that is used by their grandma.
“In this case, Within Unlimited would get in the way of Meta’s hoped-for total domination of the metaverse, which I’m too boneheaded and old-fashioned to even comprehend, because I like to drink an actual beer not a virtual beer, and be with actual friends not avatars, real life in all its grittiness being precious to me, and not replaceable by a headset, Meta’s software, and avatars representing anonymous people with headsets on.”
If I may translate this into how my buddies and I think- The Zucker is rich but still a dweeb at heart. Why would I want to sit at the loser table with nerds at school when the cool kids are over there?
Sandberg built that company into what it is, and unlike Musk who actually does have nice products, the Zucker doesn’t inspire anyone. Just the name alone, ‘Meta’. Lame. I think Meta has a long fall ahead of it…. Because people don’t like the products.
“ the Zucker doesn’t inspire anyone. Just the name alone, ‘Meta’. Lame“
The Matrix was already taken..
Berkshire will slowly work it’s way to the top three imo. It owns stuff you will still need in 50 years. Railroad, insurance, regulated public utilities, plus good stocks. Not much fantasy in their holdings.
BRK is the equivalent of a closed end mutual fund.
Haven’t you heard? Young investors call Berkshire, aka Buffet and Munger, a washed up anachronism. They obviously don’t know what they are doing when it comes to investing. Lol!
Leaving aside the speculative boom/bust, Facebook’s SPECIFIC problem is a very old story.
When a CEO neglects the company’s proper niche and pursues crazy ego dreams, the company loses its proper niche.
Facebook’s best use is local news and gossip. Local pages were doing the job of actual reporting, which professional media abandoned long ago.
When Zuck decided to eliminate time-ordered comments and choose only the “best” comments by algorithm, the niche disappeared. Without time order you can’t watch an event like a crime spree or a storm or a power outage.
VR is a fully crazy dream. It’s been commercially available for 40 years and still hasn’t gained any popularity. Gamers, who should be its prime users, hate it. How many more decades does Zuck want to wait?
I screenshot your comment to share!
I had the same quarrel with gab. let the comments roll on their own and do not select them or worse yet, censor them.
For some odd reason, techies have this need to break err.. “fix” things that work…
Twitter fell into the same trap, choosing the best comments.
When I have a comment which I feel is worth sharing, I want it seen, particularly by my followers who presumably want to see it also or they wouldn’t be following me.
Having anyone standing in between me and the person I’m trying to communicate with making decisions about whether or not to let a comment pass is ridiculous, joy-killing and unnecessary .
I had high hopes for Gab, but the interface was such a mess, hard to search and now they are selecting which posts go in order.
No thanks.
You forget that Meta is feeding you ads. That is the entire purpose. That is the only purpose.
A niche market does not sell as many ads. The algorithm shows items that will cause you to ‘engage’ with, allowing feeding of more ads.
But trying to buy up Hawaii and drive out the natives is so fun!!!
‘Meta’ is just a stupid cartoon for drug users. Try the Simpsons!
Talking about spying, Google could be doing way more than Facebook is doing.
I wonder why Google’s advertising business doesn’t seem to be nearly as affected as Meta’s.
Just timing I think. First facebook, next google, then tv’s…..
While Facebook spent years trying to figure out how to manipulate how you think and control your politics, Google was always focused on just making money.
Apple and Android cutting off data from apps? No problem because Google owns android! That actually is better for Google because now they have more monopoly power over data and can charge higher prices to advertisers.
Be patient.
The global ad business is in its own massive bubble, supported by the same loose credit standards and fake “growth” holding up the rest of the economy.
When the asset mania ends, it will crash with everything else.
Virtual reality is a solution in search of a problem. I don’t have the kind of problems virtual reality wants me to have and have no interest in acquiring them or in letting virtual reality sell them to me.
I already have enough screwballs trying to sell me things I don’t want and don’t need and have excellent spam filters to deal with them. Access denied.
Whatever else virtual reality may be, for corporatists it’s basically a sales and marketing channel intended to sucker people into becoming a captive market. The bait has very limited appeal and I know a trap when I see one.
I don’t live on Talos IV (Captain Pike is welcome to it), or on The Thirteenth Floor (starring Craig Bierko and Gretchen Mol), or in The Matrix (hey there Trinity!), or in a Surrogate (go get ’em Bruce). Resistance isn’t futile, and instead of wasting such a lovely day with my face sucked up by a screen I’m going to have the appropriate amount of fun.
Maybe more. Let’s find out.
“ I don’t have the kind of problems virtual reality wants me to have and have no interest in acquiring them or in letting virtual reality sell them to me.”
Una,
You are hereby sentenced by the Meta court to listen to the 1975 song “ Feelings, nothing more than feelings “ for 24 hours non-stop… )
This song was conposed by a brazilian guy here in Sao Paulo – Morris Albert
We’ll said, as always, Wolf. We need as many kind people as possible to remain in actual reality. Zuckerberg can take his blue pill and shove it.
I hope to see the day that it becomes fashionable to completely abandon smartphones and narcistic social media crap.
It goes deeper than that. My quality of life took a big turn for the worse way back in the early 80’s when I was issued my first beeper.
I use Facebook less than before. My 55+ community has a Facebook group. They asked for contractor recommendations. They reported local events like a huge alligator was pulled out of the pond by a state trapper. I also joined Facebook groups that discussed topics. My brother and his wife bought used furniture for their vacation home through Facebook. My other brother uses Instagram. Have not bought real estate in the metaverse as it is priced in the stratosphere. Meta stock valuations have come down. Their earnings growth went down too. I probably use Google search and YouTube more than Facebook.
I have never used FB. I guess that makes me in the minority.
But it appears to be a reiteration of MySpace — “deja vu all over again.”
It’ll probably end up in the same place. I don’t care either way.
RIP Compuserve, Prodigy, AOL and Myspace.
Netscape.
Myspace is still there. It’s only about music now.
Sorry Otis but AOL is still going strong…
Ultimately VR, like DEFI, in some form will probably make it and solve a lot of issues. But it is a long march from here to there, and a problem for first-movers in a field like this is, who will bear the risks and costs?
Silicon Valley has had this halo where the assumption was, geeks will show up and fund this project, and be the beta-test or crash-test dummy financially and as early adopters, because of the geek social cachet or whatever. I’ve known these sorts of no-life people forever. (I mean, awkward, in awe of geeky stuff, no appreciation of the analog immensely rich earthly life Wolf praises here.) These were the first to buy Apple-everything, etc., and endlessly go on about little freak features nobody with a real life should care about.
It seems we have reached peak geek?
Zuckerberg is one of these people, the Alpha of them, and assumed he would have legions of bag-holders to fund and beta-test his next dream. He bet all in on certain the es and a social context that hasn’t followed him out onto this plank he is walking. There is only so much success a person can expect. They all decay.
Others will show up and pick up the pieces.
I always found facebook creepy and despised Zuck.
Sorry, error, I meant Zuck
“bet all in on certain THEMES ….”
The winklevoss twins started this meta nonsense ,he’s trying to steal it again ,dejavu
The idiot WinkleTwinks have problems of their own these days as they drown in the mega crapto swamp they helped create.
That boy is the opposite of Alpha.
“Ultimately VR, like DEFI, in some form will probably make it and solve a lot of issues.”
I can’t think of a single problem VR will resolve, other than maybe one it creates first, whatever that is.
None one has any actual need to participate in a pretend world.
Google says Second Life had a net worth of $600 million in 2021. Fifty Shades of Grey, $571 million. No doubt a substantial overlap of fanbase.
Never underestimate bored midwestern housewives seeking fantasy.
There’s stimulus then there’s ‘fake’ stimulus. The Fed is a one trick pony and relies upon interest rate manipulation to increase or restrain spending.
It’s a blunt, inefficient instrument. Some of the stimulus went into raising asset prices–‘fake stimulus.’ As we’re witnessing. Congress has the fiscal tools (tax and spend) which are more precise. But Congress has been AWOL because of competing political factions. Until a couple days ago when Senator Manchin (D-Wv) woke up and realized he’s a registered Democrat not a Republican. That broke a logjam of Biden proposals to actually spend some real stimulus cash.
You’re deluding yourself if you think the Manchin Schumer deal is going to be anything other than a series of expensive handouts to politically favored companies and groups.
Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices is a seismic change.
In theory, we’ll need to see how it works in practice.
For “10” drugs only, ahahahaha. And later “20” drugs only. Out of millions of drugs. The pharma industry has owned all these politicians lock, stock, and barrel for decades.
Manchin was always awake, he’s just well aware his constituents generally vote Republican and he’s up for reelection in 2024. I think this was finally a much smaller and more targeted package he could support, which is a lot more than a Republican from West Virginia would do.
Most of always knew that Yucky Zucky would take Farcebook to the same heights as MySpace and now it appears he is almost there!
1) Meta and twitter will do ok because co with excess inventory will
use Meta. If China cut Nerd #1, people will communicate with each
on Meta. But Meta have to straightened up, grow up and behave themselves, first
2) Meta don’t own inventory like Walmart or Amazon, they don’t have industrial plants to produce goods…they are a relay station
3) If China punish us, Ticktock will pay the price.
4) If the global troubles Meta-statized, Meta will expand it’s size, Zuk will survive.
Meta is a very good business model to spy on people. The major difference between tick tok and meta is that, tick tok favors good looking people doing nice stunts. In META, I can be a “Playa”. Also, in future every interactions will be online.
One more thing, face book like others mentioned has a use in the community building. So does “Whatsapp”. A messaging service used in third world nations.
I have a conspiracy theory that Whatsapp was introduced to destroy “snap” (the chat app). That way snapchat will not grow.
As far as this sheen vs us, why a parasite will kill the host? Why an imperial nation wants to kill the colony?
Anyways…
It is AMAZINGLY STUPID that Yucky Zucky – a theoretically grown man – would ‘think’ anybody would have any interest in MINDLESS CARTOONS which is all his ‘meta’ nonsense is all about, and he’s obviously finding out rather clearly that nobody wants anything to do with that sort of inane, childish, and mega-stupid nonsense.
I wonder if this Meta fantasy is a reason why Sheryl Sandberg quit?
DM: Instagone? Instagram’s catastrophic drive to copy TikTok’s annoying videos could spell the end of supergeek Zuckerberg’s reign after backlash led by queens of social media Kim and Kylie
The rapacious Mark Zuckerberg and his cronies at Meta, which owns Instagram, now find they have incurred the wrath of one of social media’s most powerful groups.
I stopped visiting Facebook in 2018 and legit noticed I was happier overall. I legitimately don’t understand why anyone uses their website except maybe QAnon conspiracy people or whatever.
Meta is brilliant and will be standing for a long time.
VR may or may not be big, but the key point is that Meta is evolving, and that is good.
PE is only 13.
I generally wonder when people who never met someone exhibit a strong personal dislike, it suggests to me the target of the opprobrium is a good guy.
“I generally wonder when people who never met someone exhibit a strong personal dislike, it suggests to me the target of the opprobrium is a good guy.”
What an odd maxim. Public personas that are generally despised are therefore good?
Anyone can dislike a persons actions and statements and then consequentially not like them either. I never met Ted Bundy. Is it OK to dis-like him.
Or do I only get the “like button” or no comment.
The P/E is 13 on a stock that has never paid a cent in dividends with a good chance it won’t by the time it eventually goes bust, certainly with the losses its incurring on the “metaverse”.
Wait until it really crashes and see how happy long-term shareholders will be with their roundtrip to nowhere with literally nothing to show for it.
Granddad bad fad.
Hahaha… FB is so 2015….. all the brain washing, dumbing down,…. the negative stuff has now moved to Teer,tube,gram,tick…. and other platforms. And the worst thing is more and more younger kids are growing up addicted I mean watching this.
I almost deleted FB and all of its ilk until we bought a mountain house in a small community with no local news media. The neighborhood pages have become very valuable for getting info spread around–and we even have a taxpayer revolt brewing though the FB page!
That said, local local local is the only value FB provides.
It’s funny to see Apple has a pretty huge impact on these companies with their Do not track feature…saw that with SNAP as well. Maybe Apple should capitalize on this and make that feature Do not track unless it’s our own Apple World replacement of FB…profit and block out the competition at the same time. Apple fan boys probably wouldn’t mind either
I want to see an article from Wolf about how Wall St. is now fighting the FED and nobody got the memo on rate hikes, because the FED has no more credibility.
Blame squarely lies on the Fed itself. They kept on feeding the monster….should have been starved long time ago.
Why they kept on easing last year has to be one of the most baffling decisions of all time…If Powell has an ounce of honesty he should resign.
podcast coming. Maybe tomorrow.
This should be good, especially because a lot of these geniuses are boldly proclaiming that rate cuts are coming as soon as early next year. They are in such deep denial it’s almost like a psychosis.
Rate cuts from much higher rates than now will come when inflation is headed down in a major way. No one knows what that will be. But I don’t think it’s very quick.
Yeah me too, it’s been 7 hours since the last one.
Servitude by another name
I am another boomer who never joined FB. My wife uses it to keep up with distant relatives on several continents, so it has some usefulness.
As to the metaverse. I admit to having a couple suffering small investments in metaverse companies. There is usefulness for shut ins and disabled people who can experience more of life. And also, those in poverty who can experience things beyond their means. As more of the world’s resources are depleted, it may be necessary to dial back our experiences in the real world, as enjoyable as they are. At least until mankind gets to other planets to ruin.
In FB I go click like on all kinds of different things to throw off the data gathering.
I will like cities I have never been to. I will like magazine I have never read. I will like foods I do not like. I will like music stars I do not even know about or heard. Etc. LOL
1) Meta compete with ticktock, both innovative platforms imitated Disney
in a protracted war.
2) Some hate Micky, others hate Meta.
3) Meanwhile, Micky, Meta and ticktock cannibalized the minis.
4) Both, badly injured, will need time to recover.
5) Dis is down since early 2021. First slowly, then faster.
6) Meta is down since Sept 2021. first slowly, then faster.
7) In Jan 24 Meta popped up, beached the low, opening a huge gap.
8) In Feb 24 Meta popped up breached the low with less down thrust.
9) In June 23 that didn’t happen. After popping up Meta is testing the low, testing the test, testing the mini test, until the final test, before flunking out of school to start the original FB with few roommates.
Reading these comments sure does make me glad I’m as asocial as I am. Society with their rules and expectations isn’t for me that’s for sure. The older I get the more solitary I become. If it wasn’t for work I’d have 3 contacts in my phone. And one of those is an unremovable customer support number.
Y’all can keep all yer fancy, high fallutin, civilized ways. I’m gonna just live nocturnally and work a solitary job while living in the backwoods. Everyone nowadays seems so damn miserable, I’ll be 10 steps ahead.
Amen brother.
I’m a small business owner. About 4 years ago I tried advertising on their platform. Apparently they did not like my ad. They refused to tell me why. They just permanently banned me from advertising. No recourse.
They have ripped off advertisers for years, claiming more impressions than actually occurred. Even Procter and Gamble cannot afford to advertise with them.
These days, when someone says they have a Fakebook profile, they are apologetic, and start making excuses immediately why they have a profile. That is a pretty bad image to have of the company. I deleted my profile January 2019.
They really treat their advertisers and account holders like crap. One guy, a wounded veteran, had a page on Facebook that enabled him to work from home. Facebook got mad at him, deleted his profile, and he had no recourse. Suddenly he was out of a job. Facebook seems to think it can treat everyone like dirt, and they will keep coming back. They have instilled such hatred toward them. How can they survive? People might keep a profile, but not use it very often. I bet FB is cooking up a way to fake data right now.
I have a twitter account and after 8 years my account was locked. I have only made 4 posts ever. 3 were just linking companies like AMEX for promotional reasons I did about 4 or 5 year ago
I posted a stock chart with some technical indicators and a prediction and they locked my account.
> had a page on Facebook that enabled him to work from home
That one’s going to need some more context. How do you make money off a FB page? A storefront? Thankyouforyourservice and all, but this story is weird.
While you’re right about most of the bubbles, I think you’re dead wrong on Meta though. So thought I’d give you some feedback. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG all have 20+ PE compared to Meta’s 12 PE. This is a company that just posted 25+ B last quarter revenue with similar guidance for the next one. Let that number settle in and see how many companies make that kind of quarterly revenue (NVDA & TSLA market caps are jokes btw).
What’s more ironic is Meta could easily pause that annual 10+ B annual R&D on metaverse and post even more eye popping numbers. This would be a better approach in this market. Metaverse is years away, but you’ve to appreciate the courage Meta has to start right off. You won’t see apple spending a dime on new stuff. They wait for other to establish new technologies and then jump in to milk their ‘loyal’ customer base. A very good example was that hilarious oled screen (and the increased 950+ MSRP yoy from 650+) that’s been around since 2010. Aapl is the least innovative company in this list, selling their ancient iphones and milking their customers with those garbage i*services that pulls 20B service quarterly revenue.
I agree. Meta is a cash cow. The current price looks okay. They could reduce R&D and increase their stock buyback and the price will rise.
Apple is really not the 1st for anything. What they do very well is to make things easy. They see what the 1st to market people do and then they find out what their customers complain about. Then Apples product comes out and makes it easy for the soccer moms to use.
But I cannot tell you how many people who do think about changing phones from apple say….I have too tied to Apple to make migration to a different phone.
Regarding some of the side discussions regarding our kids’ addictions to social media, perhaps it’s partly our fault. We need to make them use their free time more effectively.
What ever happened to mandatory piano lessons?
The leftwing “historians” would LOVE Meta. It’s an opportunity to completely rewrite all of history. The student steps into the room as the founders of America are writing the Declaration of Independence, and Meta puts into the mouth of Thomas Jefferson and company whatever the “author” chooses to put in there – even comment on 21st century issues. It’s like a dream come true for the crooks.
I don’t think the metaverse has a chance in hell in being successful. It’s a plainly obvious.and desperate attempt for this sinking ship to stay afloat.
And why does Zuck always look like a damn robot. Ha!
It’s one of the greatest tragedies of the past 5 years that, instead of pursuing his initiative to create a new currency system that might provide the stable money we so desperately need, Zuck created Second Life Wii Edition: 20 Years Later and Significantly Crappier.
Metaverse is like Second Life, but way worse.
According to BAC CEO, their clients are in very good shape.
Low income clients who had $1k to 2k in their bank accounts pre-COVID now have an average of $7k
Middle class clients who had and average 0f 4 to 5k in their accounts pre-COVID now have $14k.
He said their credit card debt has dropped from 90 billion to 80 billion so their is room for them to increase spending.
He said they also have a lot of Home Equity available.
He said it is odd to see consumer sentiment down so much when finiancially they are in better shape then pre-COVID.
He also said they their savings are not dipping down.
Yes, that makes sense. As I’ve been saying for months: consumers are just fine and many are swimming in money they didn’t have before. And they’re spending some of it.
Yeah, but where is this money coming from? If Covid is what’s required to triple the bank balance of average Americans, why not have Covid every year?
So what Ru82 can be found in this MSNBC article from end of May.
“Moynihan previously said in an interview on “Mad Money” in April that consumers spent 13% more this past March than they did the same month last year.
Yet, this increased spending doesn’t seem to have made a dent in consumers’ balances.
“In the balances of our customers, they have more money. In April, their balances grew over March, and in March they grew over all the way back to mid-last year,” Moynihan said Monday from Davos.”
So who’s been topping up the balances of Americans? I can’t help but feel that there’s a software bug somewhere and lots of money are still flowing directly from the government into the coffers of Americans.
>why not have Covid every year?
Oh I’m sure that’s something in the works for a long time (tinfoil hat mode ON)
“Orwell knew: we willingly buy the screens that are used against us.”
Well, you, actually, speaking about The Collective. I want no part of this.
There’s an article on aeon dot co with the above quoted title. The article itself should frighten you.
Zuck is a kid with an ant farm. There are plenty of ants. And there are plenty of wannabes.
To quote: “Existence as you know it is over. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Resistance is futile.”
1) Meta weekly linear : it gap lower in June 13, a setup bar.
2) June 21 low, a trigger. / June 27 low, a test. July 25 low, a test of the test, on higher vol.
3) There is no close June 13 high.
4) June 18, a trigger, closed June 6/13 gap. In order to move up, there
must be a close > June 18 high.
5) Meta downtrend Lazer : Aug 24 2020 to Nov 2 2020 highs. // parallel
from Sept 14 2020 low.
6) June 18 high is a failed attempt to enter the Lazer, but…
7) There is an uptrend line coming from : July 23 2018 to Aug 24 2020
Fri closed < this channel.
8)
Thanks for editing.
Gas stations aren’t doing that well, selling gas, junk food and junk drinks.
Drivers, either can’t or became more frugal for the first time in decades.
To be fair, I never understood such an enormous success of Sheetz, Wava and the likes of them and why some people are so obsessed with them. They sell $3 bottles of soda, $10 sandwiches, disgusting coffee and way overpriced gas compared to many other locations – why they have such a following is totally beyond me.
Yes !
Good article, good comments.
Sandberg mentioned only 2 or 3 times.
DARPA not mentioned once.
Interesting 🤔🤔🤔
Statista shows from early 2021 to present the monthly active users (MAU) on Facebook is 2.93 billion. The most recent data found through a Google search shows the consensus of 1 billion for MAU for Tik Tok.
I have used Tik Tok but it’s nowhere near Facebook such as Facebook marketplace or group pages, as my HOA uses a Facebook page to communicate and post documents (instead of paying for a website).
CNBC recently quoted Tik Tok owners as saying they are an entertainment company not a social platform.
Also Facebook Reels seems to be catching on as I am seeing popular Reels videos posted in my feed. From what I’ve read such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and , Reels is becoming more popular.
Combine this with Facebook owning Instagram and WhatsApp. I hope they don’t screw them up and can monetize them (more).
As far as VR , I hope Facebook (or Meta) can make it more for education such as for training such as physical and life science labs, etc. Also combine entertainment with education like Disney does with Epcot.
Another is maybe they apply current R&D to develop assisted or augmented technology like eyeglasses. The eyeglasses provided additional information of the environment around you, as well as provide other assistance features. Its not like in the movie Minority Report but its similar in context as far as beneficial features.
Meta? The soon to be universal communication device for all business, schools, and individuals? Feeding you all you need to know and nothing you don’t need to know? THAT META?
The purveyor of new “Screens” from the novel 1984.
Now, back to my corner.
I am thinking Facebook (aka: Meta) can make its VR headsets applicable for vocational training like auto and HVAC repair, etc.
It can be a more enhanced training tool than just watching instructional videos on Youtube.
I too cannot see Meta’s incarnation of “the metaverse” coming to anything.
I’m not sure its because there’s no point in the “metaverse” incarnation of social media. The same arguments can and were made about earlier incarnations of social media. For the first 10+ years I was on the internet the vast majority of my friends/family could not understand why I would do this over real life. Now I’m the one shaking my head at them for their over reliance social media/lack of compression of the security/privacy risks.
Facebook solved a very real set of problems. In the 90s for those who were online the social media of the day was Usenet, IRC (Internet Relay Chat) etc. There were various walled gardens such as AOL. What Facebook provided a universally easy to use platform which wasn’t plagued by the scalability issues of the former technologies/services.
Facebook also had a killer USP an extremely easy & quick way to share photos with friends and family. This drove adoption, which drove achieving critical mass and ultimately incumbent status.
Before Facebook there were many other attempts to commercialise this space but whilst some had the funding & scale (such as Myspace) they hadn’t worked out the recipe for a successful universally useful social media offering. Facebook did.
Then smartphones & apps made separate apps/services for different purposes a way better fit for the needs of users than FBs take on apps being something within the facebook.com website.
And that leads me to my conclusion on the Metaverse. Sure VR + social media at some point has a killer product in it. Right now its anyone’s guess what the killer app is and how on earth it should be packaged/delivered.
I see no reason or much historical precedent to suggest that Meta will be the ones to solve this. Standing on this hill could be their AOL moment.