Miami Condo Glut Comes Apart: Wolf Richter on WRKO Boston

Time to buy a condo in Miami?

Here I am with hosts Barry Armstrong and Chuck Zodda, on Boston Business Radio WRKO, Financial Exchange Network. We’re discussing the increasingly ugly condo glut in Miami, and how it is, as I phrased it, “coming apart at the seams.” Below is the chart I mentioned on the show.

The gentleman in the image is Barry Armstrong, not yours truly.

This is the chart I discuss in the article. Note how the two lines make a rough big “X,” with supply of condos for sale (green line, right scale) heading up and demand (sales, red line, left scale) heading down. As I said, it looks “terrible.”

Here are my recent articles on the Miami condo glut and the preconstruction condo flippers:

Miami Condo Bust Much Worse than Industry Numbers Show

Condo Flippers in Miami-Dade Left Twisting in the Wind

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  23 comments for “Miami Condo Glut Comes Apart: Wolf Richter on WRKO Boston

  1. tony says:

    miami will fall off into the sea enough already.How about something on angelina joli & brad pit.

  2. Your Good Friend says:

    Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

    • hidflect says:

      Good point. Never considered it.

    • manny says:

      No, not for housing, each unit created help about 10 other jobs. I think housing bust led to most of the recession in the past decades. Thinking about it, china 10% growth in the last decade was tied to the 100 million apartments they built in the last 10 years.

      • Your Good Friend says:

        Incorrect.

        The misallocation of trillions of borrowed dollars led to grossly inflated prices which resulted in the collapse in demand.

        What goes up comes down.

        Why do bears keep underestimating the power of economy accelerating, job creating price declines?

    • James McFadden says:

      Yeah. Like that great job creation acceleration that happened in the 1930s when deflation spurred job creation …..

      • Your Good Friend says:

        Had FDR not interferred with prices, that’s exactly what happens.

        Read, study, learn my friend.

  3. MacD says:

    That because Real-estate developers keep on building with a pie-in-the-sky vision of getting rich, while in reality, less and less people can still afford to buy!

  4. hidflect says:

    Oh, to earn the enmity of Miami condo flippers. That would be a badge I would wear with honour.

  5. akiddy111 says:

    If memory serves, Miami, Vegas and Phoenix property markets peaked at the same time in 2005. I think markets in California rolled over several months later.

    Not saying that it will repeat that pattern but it looks like this bubble cycle
    followed a similar trend.

    It would be nice to come across some very recent sales, inventory and price numbers on Phoenix and Vegas alongside Miami.

    • Wolf Richter says:

      It went by metro in California. San Francisco peaked in Nov 2007, one of the last metros to peak – and went down hard. I don’t remember when the LA area rolled over.

      • akiddy111 says:

        “Peaking” and “rolling over” are two different event types, as we know.

        Being from Dublin,(IRL), i remember the peak hitting very close to the end of Q1 2007. Of course, apartments, condos and single family homes probably have different “peak” times.

        At the very least, the data you showed recently speaks to a peak in the bulk of the Manhattan and Miami condo market in this cycle.

        There was a ZH story of a former Madoff and John Paulson connected Fund manager” jumping from a Manhattan East side Penthouse.

        According to the report, the guy (Charles Murphy) bought the Penthouse in 2007 for $33M and had it listed as recently as 2 weeks ago for $36M. Moreover he spent big money on remodeling, if memory serves… and that $36m price tag was knocked down recently.

        A 10% ROI in 10 years for a high end Manhattan condo. !

        Very important. Now we can keep our ear to the ground for contagion. If it is confirmed, then sit back and get the popcorn, as they say.

  6. Lee says:

    I’d like to see a story on real estate in Hawaii – specifically Oahu and Honolulu in particular.

    That place used to have huge moves in prices both up and down.

    I haven’t been there in years, but it appears that there has been a huge increase in the number of luxury condos.

    Are the Chinese buying in Hawaii?

    • Your Good Friend says:

      Prices are falling in HI. See for yourself.

      https://www.zillow.com/hi/home-values/

      • Lee says:

        ???

        “The median home value in Hawaii is $589,700. Hawaii home values have gone up 5.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.0% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Hawaii is $480. The median price of homes currently listed in Hawaii is $595,000. The median rent price in Hawaii is $2,295.’

    • junior_kai says:

      Massive amount of building on Oahu. Prices are insane, traffic is insane. Parking your car in a garage overnight will run you $40! All these condos will go for much lower prices in a few years.

  7. Lee says:

    Maybe you are talking about this special case:

    Kahala Beach Apartments………….

    IIRC they used t sell for around the $1 million area, but fell to less than $100,000 because of the problem with the lease rent on the land:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4999-Kahala-Ave-Apt-164_Honolulu_HI_96816_M87407-00954

  8. I am a Realtor and I live in Orlando Florida. On occasion I hear an investor talk about buying a rental with the one percent rule. That may work for homes built after 1990 in the better school districts. Your investment may grow on paper for a few years. Maybe it will but maybe it won’t. I am seeing many newbies paying more than one-hundred-thirty times rent and I know they will have high maintenance cost very soon. It will not work much longer.
    Often investors are buying homes built in the sixties and paying over one-hundred times the rent price. They will get killed when the job market changes and it will. President Trump will not be able to create good-paying jobs and keep inflation level. One or the other will jump and it will jump soon. It probably will not be a pretty picture.

  9. matt says:

    Wolf. I just had my first cruise into Miami this past week. I have some pictures I shot from my ship I was on of the condo towers being built as we where sailing up and into the port of Miami and where docking at the Royal Carribean terminal. All I saw was condo Towers in various stages of construction being built with some it seem halted partially . It seemed like thousands of condos are coming on line soon and as you said, nobody to buy them. It simply amazes me that people can be so stupid again

    • Wolf Richter says:

      Thanks, Matt, for the visual update. Do you have some pics of the towers as seen from the cruise ship? You could email them (1 or 2) to me to the email address under the “Contact us” tab.

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