Get Ready for More OPEC Rumors this Month

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Oil Soars as Saudi Energy Minister Uses Oldest Trick: Talking his Book

By Martin Tiller, Oil & Energy Insider:

In financial markets, very few things are predictable; if they were we would all be fabulously wealthy. Some things, though, definitely fall in the category of “extremely likely”. A couple of weeks ago, in a regular webinar for Energy Trader Team members, I said that, while the fundamentals for oil still looked terrible, I expected something to happen over the next few weeks that would push oil higher, maybe even back to the $50 level.

Sure enough, that thing happened yesterday and triggered a roughly 5 percent one day spike in WTI, a move up that is continuing so far today. It was not anything concrete like a dramatic fall in inventories: in fact the big red bar for two days ago indicates the release of that data, which showed another larger than expected build. No, what set the market ablaze was a prominent OPEC member using the oldest trick there is: talking his book.

Khalid al-Falih, the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, talking about an informal meeting of OPEC countries in Algeria in late September, said that member countries would discuss the market situation at that meeting, including any actions that could be taken to stabilize prices. It is a strong testament to the power of hope that those comments caused such a spike in oil. What al-Falih actually did was state the obvious. I mean, what else would a gathering of OPEC ministers talk about…the price of fish?

That doesn’t mean though that energy investors should see this as a flash in the pan. I will be dipping a toe back into E&P stocks over the next few days as well as maintaining a generally bullish stance for oil trading, as I expect this to be just the first shot in a sustained book-talking campaign. The Saudi’s, after all, are the people who have stymied previous attempts by other OPEC members to cut, or at least cap, supply. Just last week we learned that the Saudi June crude production hit yet another record.

The reasons for that are strategic and have been discussed in detail elsewhere, but it comes down to two things. First, the Saudis want to flood the market in order to retain market share as their enemies, the Iranians, rejoin the market after sanctions were lifted. In addition, keeping prices low in the long run forces some of the U.S. fracking firms out of business and closes the less cost effective unconventional wells around the world.

That all makes sense for the Saudis, but other OPEC member countries are hurting. In order to hold the cartel together, a little talk from the Saudis is a small price to pay. I don’t think it will actually result in any action come September, but it is reasonable to expect other countries that actually want some action join in the talk. That is exactly what we saw in the run up to the last full OPEC meeting in June, and the talk started early then too, with chatter in April.

As Mark Twain once said history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The fact that a campaign of words gained temporary relief for other OPEC members the last time it was used, while still enabling the Saudis’ long term strategy, suggests that those tactics will be used again. Traders may be aware of what is going on to some extent, but as algorithms and funds react to the words shorts will be squeezed and momentum will take over, and that, as we saw last time, can be a powerful combination. So, position yourself for it and let the talking begin! By Martin Tiller, Oil & Energy Insider

The Saudi economy is hobbled by weak GDP growth, higher fees and taxes, with companies unable to pay their workers, leaving thousands from South Asia stranded. But… “Things are very fine.” Read…  Saudi Arabia about to Buckle in Oil Price War?

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  9 comments for “Get Ready for More OPEC Rumors this Month

  1. Ptb
    August 13, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    I’ve read that the oil business is so highly leveraged that if there’s a well that is producing, they need to be selling its production. OPEC countries all seem to have huge sovereign debt to service as well. Match this up to competitive concerns and lower prices seem in the cards.

  2. KM Tang
    August 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    The Saudis. Central Bankers for oil. Behave like the FED and ECB.

  3. Curious Cat
    August 13, 2016 at 3:56 pm

    Very useful insights. Thank you for publishing this.

  4. michael
    August 13, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    There is going to be no reduction in oil production regardless of the jabbering. All oil producers will pump. If one reduces their output another will pick up the slack.

    • John Doyle
      August 14, 2016 at 6:49 am

      Yes, I hear they are pretty sure oil prices in the future are going to stay lower than now, so they sell now to get the better returns.

  5. Nicko
    August 14, 2016 at 7:55 am

    And plenty of new oil and gas production will be coming online over the next two years.

  6. Jonathan
    August 14, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    If Saudi was a poker player, everybody else will be winning money by calling their bluff every single time.

    And BTW can’t anybody please think of these poor little OPEC children and their black gold spoons in their mouths?

  7. Chicken
    August 14, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    Yep, we never had so much oil and more is coming b/c we’re all broke!

  8. Thomas Malthus
    August 15, 2016 at 3:13 am

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