Retail Sales Excl. Autos & Gasoline Jump by Most in 18 Months & Pushed Up Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 2.5% from 2.0% Last Week by Wolf Richter • Jul 16, 2024 • 69 Comments Auto sales hit by CDK hack. Gasoline and auto sales in dollars hit by dropping prices, but they boost inflation-adjusted consumer spending.
Simon Property Group Jettisons another Mall, to Manage its Way through the Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown by Shrinking and Walking away from Debts by Wolf Richter • Jul 15, 2024 • 86 Comments The largest mall landlord has shed 38% of its shopping centers since 2012. It saw what was coming. So here’s one more.
What the Short-Term Treasury Market Says about Rate Cuts, and How Repeatedly Wrong it Was so Far by Wolf Richter • Jul 13, 2024 • 128 Comments Inflation has the upper hand. The market (Goldman Sachs and me included) vastly underestimated the Fed. Someday the market might get it right.
Services PPI Inflation Dishes Up Another Nasty Surprise, 6th Month in a Row. Bottom of U-Turn was in December by Wolf Richter • Jul 12, 2024 • 56 Comments Services are huge, 62% of total PPI. We see parallels to early 2021, when this mess started. But core goods are well-behaved.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: Historic Plunge in Durable Goods Prices, Plunge in Gasoline, and Outliers in Services by Wolf Richter • Jul 11, 2024 • 93 Comments Core Services CPI produced 2nd outlier. In the past, after two outliers in this very volatile data, the next move was a U-turn.
Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike by Wolf Richter • Jul 9, 2024 • 63 Comments But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability again.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020 by Wolf Richter • Jul 5, 2024 • 93 Comments Quantitative Tightening so far has removed 41% of Treasury securities and 29% of MBS that pandemic QE had added.
What’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers by Wolf Richter • Jul 4, 2024 • 82 Comments And they’re big. That assumes their hedges don’t blow up, but that’s precisely what hit D.R. Horton.
New Vehicle Sales, Q2: EVs Surge YoY, Except Tesla. Stellantis Drops to #6 for First Time, behind Honda. GM & Ford ICE Vehicles Dip YoY, but their EVs Spike. Prices Drop by Wolf Richter • Jul 3, 2024 • 82 Comments The CDK cyberattack wreaked havoc on processing and reporting deliveries by nearly 15,000 dealers.
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: Central Banks Diversify from USD-Assets to Other Currencies and to Gold by Wolf Richter • Jun 29, 2024 • 132 Comments Long, slow erosion of the US dollar’s dominance. China’s renminbi keeps losing ground, many other currencies gain, as does gold.
