The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions by Wolf Richter • Sep 8, 2024 • 85 Comments Over the past 25 years, the yield curve predicted 4 business-cycle recessions, two of which didn’t come. So we handle it with care.
Rate Cut Mania Now Crushing Stocks after Whipping Stocks into Frenzy or Whatever. Mag 7 Down $2.5 Trillion from Peak, Nasdaq Bloodied, Semis Crushed by Wolf Richter • Sep 7, 2024 • 127 Comments A 4% drop will put the Nasdaq back to Nov 2021. Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet already back where they’d been 3 or 4 years ago. Nvidia -24% from peak.
The Fed Has Room to Cut, Rates Are High Relative to Inflation, and Job Growth Could Use some Juicing Up by Wolf Richter • Sep 6, 2024 • 194 Comments Job growth bounces back some, hourly earnings jump, unemployment dips, but job growth is too slow to absorb the massive influx of immigrants.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$66 Billion in August, -$1.85 Trillion from Peak, to $7.11 Trillion, back to June 2020, Another QT Milestone by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 82 Comments Quantitative Tightening has shed so far 38% of the assets that pandemic QE had added.
Buyers’ Strike Deepened in August Despite Lower Mortgage Rates. Listings Surge, Home Sellers Slowly Drop Prices by Wolf Richter • Sep 5, 2024 • 105 Comments Listing prices, YoY: Miami -11.7%, San Diego -9.1%, Kansas City -8.5%, San Francisco -7.7%, Austin -7.6%. Active listings explode in Tampa, San Diego, Miami, Seattle…
Is the Labor Market “Normalizing?” What Even Is “Normal?” by Wolf Richter • Sep 4, 2024 • 60 Comments Fewer quits and historically low layoffs & discharges mean fewer job openings, and less hiring to fill them. But that’s only part of it.
Bloodletting in Semiconductor Stocks Kicks Off September: Nvidia -11.7% Regular & Late Trading, Market Cap Drops by Half a Tesla by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2024 • 155 Comments Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%. If it drops another 6.7%, it’ll be back to November 2021.
Construction Spending Squeaks to Record amid Eyepopping Boom in Spending on Factories while Residential Construction Tries to Dig Out of Last Year’s Slump by Wolf Richter • Sep 3, 2024 • 43 Comments Majority of construction spending goes into nonresidential, dominated now by a spending spree on factories.
Why We’ll Replace the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Our Series, “The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America” by Wolf Richter • Sep 2, 2024 • 99 Comments The series, started in 2017 to document visually the surging home prices amid the Fed’s interest rate repression, will now get bigger and better.
Our Drunken Sailors Are at it Again, Not at All in the Mood for a Slowdown or a Recession by Wolf Richter • Aug 30, 2024 • 161 Comments Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped. They splurged on durable goods. And still saved some. In response, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow jumped.
